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On July 20 2015 17:46 boxerfred wrote:Show nested quote +On July 20 2015 07:09 Trfel wrote:
No, don't kill Half the Sky. She may be stupid, but she's not scum.
If you think that Half the Sky is scum with both rsoultin and XEliteBlueHunter69X, you're a moron.
If you don't think that this is true, she could have just voted for the whoever isn't scum. Or more likely, both are town. Why? Why am I a moron for taking this into consideration? I say that it is very possible that both voted people are members of the scum team. So please, please, please explain very thoroughly, for a dumb moron as I am one, why this is not possible. It's one potential mafia team. I believe there are 84 potential mafia teams, currently (counting everyone as potential mafia). I'm willing to ignore this one possible team for two reasons. One, we're basically in triple LYLO and can't afford to be paranoid about everything, and second, if the mafia team contains rsoultin and Half the Sky, two of the leading posters, I can't imagine them letting the lynch fall between two mafia and not doing that much about it.
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On July 20 2015 22:10 rsoultin wrote:
bueno, so i'm at a scumteam of
clarity/wave/bf
it's a bit wifomy, but i really don't see ebh as a stupid enough player to allow himself to get lynched as scum just to protect scummate clarity...because clarity almost definitely is the next phase's lynch if he flips scum heh >< and there's really no other scum-motivated explanation for his play last phase I think I really like this read.
I don't know what to make of ruXxar's logic being so incorrect. And him missing End of Day without warning, then coming back and just being apparently frustrated for the no-lynch. It sort of feels like mafia getting lazy near the end of the game, but I really don't know.
Also, it seems that my list post was pretty stupid, as most people have the same scumreads as me. Oh well.
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On July 21 2015 09:00 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On July 20 2015 22:10 rsoultin wrote:
bueno, so i'm at a scumteam of
clarity/wave/bf
it's a bit wifomy, but i really don't see ebh as a stupid enough player to allow himself to get lynched as scum just to protect scummate clarity...because clarity almost definitely is the next phase's lynch if he flips scum heh >< and there's really no other scum-motivated explanation for his play last phase I think I really like this read. I don't know what to make of ruXxar's logic being so incorrect. And him missing End of Day without warning, then coming back and just being apparently frustrated for the no-lynch. It sort of feels like mafia getting lazy near the end of the game, but I really don't know. Also, it seems that my list post was pretty stupid, as most people have the same scumreads as me. Oh well.
How is my logic incorrect?
In what world does mafia NOT hammer a townie with 5 afk votes on him?
No world if you ask me.
This makes the game really simple and I see only 2 possible solutions:
World #1:
Rsoul is mafia.
The mafia team is rsoul, clarity and trfel.
World #2:
Rsoul is town.
All 3 mafia are already voting on her.
The mafia team is BF, Wave and EBH.
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On July 21 2015 10:01 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On July 21 2015 09:00 Trfel wrote:On July 20 2015 22:10 rsoultin wrote:
bueno, so i'm at a scumteam of
clarity/wave/bf
it's a bit wifomy, but i really don't see ebh as a stupid enough player to allow himself to get lynched as scum just to protect scummate clarity...because clarity almost definitely is the next phase's lynch if he flips scum heh >< and there's really no other scum-motivated explanation for his play last phase I think I really like this read. I don't know what to make of ruXxar's logic being so incorrect. And him missing End of Day without warning, then coming back and just being apparently frustrated for the no-lynch. It sort of feels like mafia getting lazy near the end of the game, but I really don't know. Also, it seems that my list post was pretty stupid, as most people have the same scumreads as me. Oh well. How is my logic incorrect? In what world does mafia NOT hammer a townie with 5 afk votes on him? No world if you ask me. This makes the game really simple and I see only 2 possible solutions: World #1: Rsoul is mafia. The mafia team is rsoul, clarity and trfel. World #2: Rsoul is town. All 3 mafia are already voting on her. The mafia team is BF, Wave and EBH. Take some time, and think about it. Think about all of the possibilities. Think about mafia motivations. Come back and let me know.
(I'm not trying to be intentionally obtuse, I need to go eat dinner now, but this really is something you should be able to figure out yourself...)
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so, i'm still down for lynching clarity/bf/wave, in no particular order in all honesty
but i think that whatever we do today, we need as many of us on the same page as possible? i also could probably be convinced to lynch ruxx if there's a good reason not to lynch one of those three...problem with ruxx is i just want to lynch him on principle for tunneling me so hard all game and i don't think that's a good enough reason -_- heh
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I think that Clarity_nl is the best lynch for today.
##vote Clarity_nl
Working on some big analysis (in terms of effort, so far not as big in terms of actual importance). Hoping it leads to something eventually.
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On July 21 2015 09:00 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On July 20 2015 22:10 rsoultin wrote:
bueno, so i'm at a scumteam of
clarity/wave/bf
it's a bit wifomy, but i really don't see ebh as a stupid enough player to allow himself to get lynched as scum just to protect scummate clarity...because clarity almost definitely is the next phase's lynch if he flips scum heh >< and there's really no other scum-motivated explanation for his play last phase I think I really like this read. I don't know what to make of ruXxar's logic being so incorrect. And him missing End of Day without warning, then coming back and just being apparently frustrated for the no-lynch. It sort of feels like mafia getting lazy near the end of the game, but I really don't know. Also, it seems that my list post was pretty stupid, as most people have the same scumreads as me. Oh well.
im lazy ever since HF died and noone expect me sheeped his reads
##vote rsoultin ffs
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oh yeah im fine with clarity dead too. still saying rsoul/clarity/hts.
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On July 21 2015 10:01 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On July 21 2015 09:00 Trfel wrote:On July 20 2015 22:10 rsoultin wrote:
bueno, so i'm at a scumteam of
clarity/wave/bf
it's a bit wifomy, but i really don't see ebh as a stupid enough player to allow himself to get lynched as scum just to protect scummate clarity...because clarity almost definitely is the next phase's lynch if he flips scum heh >< and there's really no other scum-motivated explanation for his play last phase I think I really like this read. I don't know what to make of ruXxar's logic being so incorrect. And him missing End of Day without warning, then coming back and just being apparently frustrated for the no-lynch. It sort of feels like mafia getting lazy near the end of the game, but I really don't know. Also, it seems that my list post was pretty stupid, as most people have the same scumreads as me. Oh well. How is my logic incorrect? In what world does mafia NOT hammer a townie with 5 afk votes on him? No world if you ask me. This makes the game really simple and I see only 2 possible solutions: World #1: Rsoul is mafia. The mafia team is rsoul, clarity and trfel. World #2: Rsoul is town. All 3 mafia are already voting on her. The mafia team is BF, Wave and EBH. Anyway, ruXxar, as much as I want to see if you can figure it out for yourself, I eventually decided that the value gained from focusing the discussion and getting your reactions now is preferable. Plus, you've had plenty of time to think about it.
From the Day 5 lynch:
+ Show Spoiler [If Mislynch] +7 Town 3 Mafia
5 Town 3 Mafia, LYLO (assume lynch scum)
5 Town 2 Mafia
3 Town 2 Mafia, LYLO
3 Town 1 Mafia
2 Town 1 Mafia LYLO
Basically, it's triple LYLO, with the last one being three players.
+ Show Spoiler [If No Lynch] +8 Town 3 Mafia
6 Town 3 Mafia, LYLO
6 Town 2 Mafia
4 Town 2 Mafia LYLO
4 Town 1 Mafia
3 Town 1 Mafia MYLO (assuming town no-lynches)
2 Town 1 Mafia LYLO
It ends up in the same place, just one day slower. Basically, mafia doesn't actually have much incentive for getting a mislynch on town instead of lynching scum; in fact, lynching town means that there's one less townie for the next two lynches (which increases town's lynch percentage).
Basically, mafia doesn't necessarily want to hammer town!rsoultin. And that crushes the foundation of your argument.
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Hey guys. As messed up as it is I agree HtS is town.
Trfel can you explain your scumread on me? You basically didn't have it until I voted you d5 afaik.
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Sadly the night flips change nothing for me, but I feel better about HtS and trfel is suddenly playing his heart out which I actually think makes him scum. He was basically afk until I brought him up and ever since then has been posting like crazy, most of it is calling me scum.
But he's on rsoultin's never lynch list which makes things difficult.
I think bf is town, this leaves me back with rsoultin/trfel being scum together, with either EBH or WoS being the third. Probably EBH although I remember someone saying he's town for something that happened during EoD, I'll have to reread as I've just skimmed.
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Trfel your whole "scum don't care if they lynch scum" argument is dumb. You're right there are the same amount of days but the amount of info from any of the 3 scum flipping will likely solve the game.
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On July 21 2015 16:18 Clarity_nl wrote:
Trfel your whole "scum don't care if they lynch scum" argument is dumb. You're right there are the same amount of days but the amount of info from any of the 3 scum flipping will likely solve the game.
You misread, what he's saying is that for mafia there is a neglible difference between a no-lynch and a mis-lynch on town.
I'm still trying to make sense of how that fits with yesterdays voting.
Can we safely make the assumption that the scum team was aware of this and not really caring one way or the other?
If we do, then the only safe assumption about yesterday is the fact that mafia wanted to avoid a mafia lynch.
I'll give you my thoughts after work tonight.
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On July 21 2015 17:59 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On July 21 2015 16:18 Clarity_nl wrote:
Trfel your whole "scum don't care if they lynch scum" argument is dumb. You're right there are the same amount of days but the amount of info from any of the 3 scum flipping will likely solve the game. You misread, what he's saying is that for mafia there is a neglible difference between a no-lynch and a mis-lynch on town. I'm still trying to make sense of how that fits with yesterdays voting. Can we safely make the assumption that the scum team was aware of this and not really caring one way or the other? If we do, then the only safe assumption about yesterday is the fact that mafia wanted to avoid a mafia lynch. I'll give you my thoughts after work tonight.
I don't think I misread
It ends up in the same place, just one day slower. Basically, mafia doesn't actually have much incentive for getting a mislynch on town instead of lynching scum; in fact, lynching town means that there's one less townie for the next two lynches (which increases town's lynch percentage).
Trfel is somehow arguing that scum would have let scum die, rather than try to divert the lynch onto town.
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um...
not really? ruxx's argument was that scum should have hammered me if i were town? all truffle is saying is there's actually not a huge incentive for scum to do that over a no-lynch
case and point: ows...had he been any sooner you would have lynched me yesterday
regardless, your scumteam doesn't work, clarity. you seem to be running out of scumreads lol >< you're saying that i would deliberately divert attention onto ebh if we're both scum...or that wave would hammer me if we're both scum (have you not caught up yet)? like legitimately the only way this works is if ebh, wave and i are all scum which is one heck of a shit show but not technically impossible, except for my role pm xP
you think bf is still town after he was lurking and letting a no-lynch happen? i don't see how you can look at yesterday's lynch and come to these conclusions, frankly, and unlike bf you're a pretty rational player
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anyway, the whole line of argumentation is null and void if both wagons were town, which is where i'm at right now...i have a hard time seeing ebh/va as scum after last day phase -shrugs-
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On July 21 2015 14:54 boxerfred wrote:Show nested quote +On July 21 2015 09:00 Trfel wrote:On July 20 2015 22:10 rsoultin wrote:
bueno, so i'm at a scumteam of
clarity/wave/bf
it's a bit wifomy, but i really don't see ebh as a stupid enough player to allow himself to get lynched as scum just to protect scummate clarity...because clarity almost definitely is the next phase's lynch if he flips scum heh >< and there's really no other scum-motivated explanation for his play last phase I think I really like this read. I don't know what to make of ruXxar's logic being so incorrect. And him missing End of Day without warning, then coming back and just being apparently frustrated for the no-lynch. It sort of feels like mafia getting lazy near the end of the game, but I really don't know. Also, it seems that my list post was pretty stupid, as most people have the same scumreads as me. Oh well. im lazy ever since HF died and noone expect me sheeped his reads ##vote rsoultin ffs
HF is wrong on me and I think he's wrong on Ras.
Just because someone is town doesn't mean they are correct.
Voting Clarity.
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BF explain how Ras and I can be on the same team when I did what I did at EoD >_<
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i think he's actually trying to say that you didn't lynch va if you're on a team with both me and clarity lol ><
you guys keep telling me this is a town bf? like, seriously?
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EPT
