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TL Mafia LXXI: Gaiden - Page 17

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Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
July 14 2015 16:15 GMT
#6534
On July 15 2015 01:14 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
Stop calling me mafia guys.
Like really.


I'm not. Apparently Oats and HF think you are...
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
July 14 2015 16:18 GMT
#6542
Some of the more divergent reads I can understand from BF. He's been fear reading me the whole game for instance and he doesn't know or wouldn't know WoS's play.

But how does he think LS is null when KP's verified that there is a gunsmith? He'd have to believe that LS and I are on a scumteam together for one thing and that the real gunsmith didn't claim....I mean, someone grab the tinfoil hat please....
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
July 14 2015 16:21 GMT
#6549
On July 15 2015 01:17 Oatsmaster wrote:
Show nested quote +
I know I townread him until the reservations on his pushes came up.

Can I just clarify this?

You are saying that you townread damdred, until people started questioning his lynch? Or until people started questioning the people damdred pushed.

Cause he wasnt lynched off his pushes. He was lynched cause he got tracked.


My thought process was this - this was prior to the track claim

Early in the game we were talking about WoS. I told Marv that the ONLY reason I was TRing WoS was meta based on the fact that town WoS does little and plays a poor town game and that scum WoS based on his play in NSM11 was more active, more dickish, etc.

I crosschecked that meta in thread and OWS and Marv - both of whom were townreading at that time - said that the meta was true.

And if that held true, then that geript and KSC had reason or were onto Damdred not being as town and that's around the time I started doubting Damdred.

TLDR - the latter.
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
July 14 2015 16:24 GMT
#6550
On July 15 2015 01:20 Clarity_nl wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 15 2015 01:18 Half the Sky wrote:
Some of the more divergent reads I can understand from BF. He's been fear reading me the whole game for instance and he doesn't know or wouldn't know WoS's play.

But how does he think LS is null when KP's verified that there is a gunsmith? He'd have to believe that LS and I are on a scumteam together for one thing and that the real gunsmith didn't claim....I mean, someone grab the tinfoil hat please....


As much as I want to kill him scum for that horrendous list, I think it's more likely bad town. Like how does scum post that list? I had a townread on him prior to the list so... guess I'll stick to it.

List is terrible tho.


Normally I hate the too scum to be scum argument but then I also just realized with BF is that he is at least 30-40 pages behind every time he's in so it's very possible he could have missed the LS claim. But if he's examined it, it's just pretty out there.....ehhhhh and then again his scumhunting in general is pretty bad.

You're probably right.
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
July 14 2015 16:26 GMT
#6551
So OWS, are your top scumreads still EBH/Scott? Or someone else?
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
July 14 2015 16:26 GMT
#6552
I remember you pushing Scott pretty hard.....where do you stand on some of the other tossups?
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
July 14 2015 16:31 GMT
#6555
On July 15 2015 01:30 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 15 2015 01:26 Half the Sky wrote:
I remember you pushing Scott pretty hard.....where do you stand on some of the other tossups?


I already stated that I won't lynch ruxx because of the whole "lack of paranoia" thing.
I really don't think Wave is mafia because I can't see him being this apathetic but he probably needs to be shot/lynched anyway if he isn't going to play.

Who else?


Vivax, Breshke and Boxerfred are also names being thrown around.
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
July 14 2015 16:38 GMT
#6558
On July 15 2015 01:34 ruXxar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 15 2015 01:14 Half the Sky wrote:
On July 15 2015 01:09 ruXxar wrote:
Ok, so I'm thinking that kelsier is going to be a very interesting flip if he's mafia.

Once we have 2 mafia flipped
we can start analyizing inter-mafia behavior and try to glean some information from how they interact(or don't!) with each other.
Until then it's sort of hard to draw any associative patterns between people.


Why are you so sure KSC was mafia?


Not sure at all.
It wouldn't surprise me though.
Like I've mentioned earlier he's acted really weird after D1, and his filter after D1 is really awful imo.


Alright you did say "if he's mafia" but second sentence initially led me to believe you are expecting KSC to flip as mafia.

But given how you've been posting some obvious statements through this game I'm probably wrong and you're doing the same here too.
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
July 14 2015 16:38 GMT
#6559
I am stepping out for food and I need to keep working.
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
July 14 2015 21:56 GMT
#6756
My problem with the OWS case is there are only 3 games of OWS mafia games in the database (Hajime is inaccurate, Kita had that wrong) and Aperture 4 aside, the other two are ages ago, so regardless of HF's alignment, I don't think it's reliable.

Furthermore, I read through OWS's Aperture 4 filter, and there was plenty of sarcasm, lols, etc in that filter. If HF meant serious as opposed to easygoing, then I'd say the first half of that filter there are definitely posts where he's more serious than others, I mean he has to act like he's finding scum but he's definitely not uptight and there are posts where he seems relaxed and doesn't appear to give too many cares, so if he's getting that from Aperture 4 I'm going to have to disagree with him.

I would recommend reading the Aperture 4 filter and then coming to a judgement if you really are tentative on scum OWS. If you're getting that from filters in his earlier games, then.....I'd argue it's not reliable cause it was quite long time ago, unless you play with OWS off site or have some other information I'm not aware of.
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
July 14 2015 21:57 GMT
#6759
EBWOP - I would recommend reading OWS's Aperture 4 filter and then coming to a judgement....

I mean, like I said irregardless of Holyflare's alignment I would not shoot into OWS. Oats saying that OWS is not memorable however is a different argument that can be investigated separately.
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
July 14 2015 22:14 GMT
#6779
Wow.

Definitely not complaining about the modkill lmao!

GGs all of you.
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
July 14 2015 22:16 GMT
#6786
Alright, lemme run through KSC's filter...
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
July 14 2015 22:39 GMT
#6809
On July 06 2015 10:05 KelsierSC wrote:
so i feel i should give where i'm at

my early read was i like damdred but i have felt underwhelemed by how he townread rsoul, that felt pretty weak to me when you compare the other two games

i've started to like clairty based on how he read wave, clarity HAS LOOKED SCUMMY so for wave to read him as town seems weird to me.

geript has shown some buck and been engaged so he feels town i like his response

i have feelings and like my dick is sort of quivvering either way but im not going toi be like yo, fuck you on other people but that is how i feel



On July 06 2015 12:08 KelsierSC wrote:
im too drunk to play this but last game

damdred and rsoul read eachother as town, and they both had ls as town early

this game damdred has rs as town but ls as mafia but he has rs as town

so something fucked up is happening there

i like geript and i like clarity,
i also like breshke but i dont really know how real this read is

and i dont like Wos as a result of liking clarity, sheeping the fuck

outside of that im fucked to fuck


On July 07 2015 00:24 KelsierSC wrote:
Here are my initial reads

Clarity - The initial posts weren't great but perhaps he was
just excited to play, I really liked his scum read on WoS, he had pressure
on him but he scumread the one guy sort of townreading him out of nowhere
that felt really good. since then his posting has been solid, comments about
trefl and bf seem alright.

Breshke - I have my own sort of meta read on breshke, then I think his point
about LS , damdreds read and his responses to hf are all good,

hf - he's come right out the gate with pressure on trefl and gotten into a few scraps already.
I also like the mindmeld that he and breshke had when they called rsoul out , the "voting early doesnt mean shit" posts

geript - early tone read felt fiesty, felt town.

oats - I liked the xp read on rsoul initially, been up in people's face


wave - I think calling clarity town at the time he did was
strange and it was like he was purposefully trying to go against thread sentiment.
Clarity has retracted the scum read but I'm not a fan

ritoky - he seems less jokey and less engaged than he was at the
start of himalayas. I was asking marv about the 3 name post and although he has
not seen it as scum, it is different from his town and felt out of place.

trefl - I like hf's case I like the comments clarity made.
sheep case completely


weird love triangle

ok so here is this fucked up triangle

rsoul,damdred and LS

now rsoul and damdred can typically read eachother quickly
and in this game they quickly read eachother as town.

Show nested quote +
On July 06 2015 08:38 Damdred wrote:
On July 06 2015 08:35 KelsierSC wrote:
Damdred why is rsoul town

do work


It's a bit of a gut/tone read I have going on her. Her little spat with clarity she was a bit of a pita and her not hostility but uhhh exaggeration makes me feel it's town rd, plus the follow up makes me feel it


and rsoul

Show nested quote +
On July 06 2015 08:01 rsoultin wrote:
On July 06 2015 08:00 Clarity_nl wrote:
Can't help but notice that your vote is on me geript.


lol well i don't really blame him xP with the way you climbed right up hf's ass first post of the game

daaaaaamdy trash tier new method says ls town. so is my method just really trash or are you wrong on ls? xP

to me that looks like someone talking to a town read.

anyway

damdred has LS as mafia early on.

Show nested quote +
On July 06 2015 07:49 Damdred wrote:
Oh carp... ls why did you roll scum?


develops this around laziness and the flip-flop on scott.

now I remember initially I liked this read, it felt good
but wine induced me felt unsure of it later on especially when LS
responded about how you catch scott later on,

so if rsoul and damdred are both town and they read eachother
correctly maybe rsoul is just wrong on LS and damdred is right.
damdred certainly sounded the most confident.

but if LS is town, and i'm really undecided on this. then why is damdred wrong
but rsoul right, especially at the time those reads were given rsoul had no business calling LS town.

I think one of those 3 is mafia because it just doesn't click right now.


Independently of this I haven't really liked rsoul but I have nothing new to add to points raised by hf/marv/oats


So Damdred and KSC did quite a bit of double bussing (!!!) D1. Both pushed on Wave but the pushes went nowhere, not sure if that could/would/should be alignment indicative either way considering WoS has not done much this game.

Bottom of page 4 of his filter - you have a soft push on BF. Interesting. Given BF's play this game though I'm not sure that's alignment indicative.

On July 08 2015 00:30 KelsierSC wrote:
Here's my list right now

Town
hf
breshke
clarity
oats
geript
harkon
LS

scum
trfel
ritoky
damdred
bluehunter
milo
wave

Everyone else I have leans on but this is my head right now.


In between those sets of reads you have a few soft pushes on EBH and Trfel. He's scumreading ritoky and LS the whole time but obv now we know what those latter two are.

Day 2 reads -

On July 14 2015 09:19 KelsierSC wrote:
Hf and boxer feel like town to me i wouldnt lynch them

i'd look at scott, trefl and WoS tomorrow

or a vigi shot


On July 14 2015 09:37 KelsierSC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 14 2015 09:27 ruXxar wrote:
On July 14 2015 09:19 KelsierSC wrote:
Hf and boxer feel like town to me i wouldnt lynch them

i'd look at scott, trefl and WoS tomorrow

or a vigi shot



Can you qualify your reads?


hf is a tone read to me, i can't fully explain it but i see hf posting about fucking everything in teh game and it feels like town. yeh he can spam as scum. but he feels like town. plus he mindmelded with marv, who is also town. and it reminded me of some other faggot game where the two of them melded to form a titanical robot of doom until marv replaces with some noob ass bitch called koshi.

bf is the same kind of thing, he is around the game and i like what I see. I think his hf fight is just because their aren't many people who give a fuck about the game so when two people who actually care get involved they sort of gith eachother.


scott, it's a "saved" post I made plus a lot of one liners where he tries to get people to fight with eachother.

Show nested quote +
On July 08 2015 05:35 scott31337 wrote:
Meat ninja voted for Clarity
On July 08 2015 05:26 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
##Vote: Clarity_nl





Show nested quote +
On July 08 2015 06:12 scott31337 wrote:
Rsoul's back
Can we lynch her now Harkon?


Show nested quote +
On July 08 2015 06:57 KelsierSC wrote:
On July 08 2015 06:57 scott31337 wrote:
We have 14.

98% sure BM flips wanderer though


saved


WoS, like that is just a D1 read, his read on "clarity is town " when he has no beez in teh trap business calling clarity town. since then, has he done shit, no, like even i have said more and i hasvent given a fuck for 2 days.

I honestly need to read trefl again. this is from the early game and i ahvent seen anything that made me change my read so i need to double check that and see.

but i'd go for scott or wave over him



Might be WIFOM here but based on Damdred and KSC filters Wave is probably town. Really not a whole lot of additional information since we already know where Damdred and LS stand, and Trfel and BF reads seem to be a little more definitive than before...

Gah was hoping for more, but go friggin figure...
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
July 14 2015 22:42 GMT
#6811
Yeah going to check the "other side" as well with the people I've tagged on this end: WoS/Trfel/BF/EBH. More of for reference than anything....
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
July 14 2015 22:45 GMT
#6816
On July 15 2015 07:44 LightningStrike wrote:
Also don't you guys find it odd that I wasn't NK'd and yet Marv did?


Actually, not at all. He has more influence than you and truth be told, he's a better player and a bigger threat. You are confirmed but the bigger threats have to go and you have no more guns left anyhow.
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
July 14 2015 23:10 GMT
#6827
On July 15 2015 07:57 LightningStrike wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 15 2015 01:09 ruXxar wrote:
Ok, so I'm thinking that kelsier is going to be a very interesting flip if he's mafia.

Once we have 2 mafia flipped
we can start analyizing inter-mafia behavior and try to glean some information from how they interact(or don't!) with each other.
Until then it's sort of hard to draw any associative patterns between people.


This post screams TMI about KSC because he didn't really say much about KSC prior to that post.
Show nested quote +
On July 14 2015 22:42 Holyflare wrote:
It's a good thing kelsier flipped mafia though that makes things easier



HF post here is weird too but I thought he was Mafia prior to that post.


I thought HF was trolling, IDK.

But yeh I asked about that post to ruXxar earlier....and now that's he's flipped I do wonder if that may have been a scumslip although he did say it was two separate statements. The word "once" really has me on edge but this is also a non-native speaker we're dealing with. If vs once. One is conditional, the latter definitive.
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
July 15 2015 16:23 GMT
#6913
On July 16 2015 00:05 ruXxar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 15 2015 23:07 rsoultin wrote:
Eh last is def nai lol vivax has made me feel like shite a couple of times

I've been reading him town but I don't remember this trfel thing. Quotes?


Here's vivax progression in reads on Trfel in chronological order:

Response to holyflare's case on Trfel:
Show nested quote +
On July 07 2015 01:20 Vivax wrote:
I can sheep that HF. But I don't want the geript shit to be ignored either.


Then says he doesn't want to lynch trfel because trfel posted some useless content.
Show nested quote +
On July 07 2015 01:45 Vivax wrote:

I retract that I would sheep on Trfel, I realized he posted more than I thought.
We should kill geript for being a liar.
Show nested quote +
On July 07 2015 02:29 Vivax wrote:
I might as well ignore this whole Trfel thingy since he started doing a little bit of something lately until geript the lying scum is burned for his crimes.

Posting useless drivel doesn't auto-mean somebody is scum, just that he wants to post useless drivel for some reason. Much better to look either into the nice guys a la Ruxxar (I'm suspicious of him by standard cause I feel he tries to be everybody's bro, but not willing to call him mafia yet given he also called some shit out that seemed original), and the "too-tryhard-to-be-really-scumhunting" guys a la geript who seems to imitate his ideal townie prototype who calls people mafia as if it was god given and tries to shit on everybody trying to look like he's a dick.


Then he goes on to berate HF's push on trfel.
Show nested quote +
On July 07 2015 02:31 Vivax wrote:
This whole Trfel thing HF brings up is more along the lines of "BUT YOU AREN'T PLAYING THE GAME THE WAY IT'S SUPPOSED TO, LYNCH" like the last two games where I did exactly that at the beginning of the game for the most part, to demonstrate how prevalent this shitty heuristic is.


Then he suddenly decides that trfel can die anyway.
Show nested quote +
On July 08 2015 03:07 Vivax wrote:
I decided that Trfel can die too, so if HF wants a lynch on him he can have my vote.

I saw no elaboration on his scott scumread and the talk about LS looks like he just needed that read to have something to talk about. His HF suspicion fell into the water as well.

Instead what we get are a bunch of apologetic posts and empty promises.


Then asked who he want to lynch he says his top scum after geript is trfel..
Show nested quote +
On July 08 2015 05:07 Vivax wrote:
On July 08 2015 05:06 Clarity_nl wrote:
On July 08 2015 05:06 Vivax wrote:
This game is insane, at the start of the day with plenty of room to do things, some people go nuts about Trfel. When at the end of the day it turns out he didn't deliver jack for real, they start lynching into cop claims.


Who do you want to lynch Vivax? Assume geript is off the table


Trfel? I thought it was obvious.


Now he suddenly thinks Trfel should "possibly" be lynched.
Show nested quote +
On July 08 2015 18:07 Vivax wrote:
I don't wanna end up tunneled actually. I still have to get a more compelte look at you.

+ All of this distracts me from killing geript, WoS and possibly Trfel


Then he's irritated that HF dropped his suspicions of trfel:
Show nested quote +
On July 08 2015 19:16 Vivax wrote:
I'm pretty irritated by the way HF abandoned the suspicion of Trfel just when mine started to build up.
Show nested quote +
On July 11 2015 12:25 Vivax wrote:
On July 11 2015 12:22 Holyflare wrote:
On July 11 2015 12:18 Vivax wrote:
That list by scott has the interesting point that he accuses me of defending Trfel but at the same time posts something about him that says absoluely nothing about his alignment. The "that was crap but he can be not crap" stuff.


I don't see how that's interesting since your defence was incredibly scummy. You said "oh he posted more than j remember i don't want to vote him" yet the scum read was because he posted a lot but said nothing. Hence your defence was scummy even if trfel was not to him.


Well you can fuck off first of all with this cause when I was ready to vote for him you magically lost interest and now you make it an issue again.


Then he wants to lynch trfel again:
Show nested quote +
On July 12 2015 08:42 Vivax wrote:
I'm really tempted to go for Trfel today.


Then he's like nope:
Show nested quote +
On July 12 2015 19:03 Vivax wrote:
Gonna TR Trfel and boxer cause they don't attempt to go after me when quite a bit of people expressed that wish already, and after I pressured them at least a little bit and was willing to lynch/consider milo during the night.


He seems pretty erratic with regards to his stance on trfel.
It's like he's trying to create a narrative of having a dynamic change in stance on trfel but it's so inconsistent I find it hard to believe that it's genuine.


Are you taking into account the context as to why each of these steps are happening? You're not looking at Trfel's activity relative to these reads and Vivax retracted because of the amount of content not the quality of content.

Then you're saying he can "suddenly" decide that Trfel can die? Look at the timestamps, that's a day or so later.

I mean is he changing his stance a lot? Yes. Are there reasons for his changes in stance? Nearly every time, yes, namely Trfel's activity, for one thing (I mean just look at the gaps in the timestamps, it's apparent it's long enough and reasonable to keep reconsidering Trfel's status in the game the longer his inactivity goes on from a town standpoint and he wasn't the only one anyhow. Marv even voiced reservation and so did Harkon.)

Nowhere, do you consider why. If you want to criticise those reasons that's another thing, but overall this case and the next paragraph you have on Vivax are pretty poor, even the geript thing, I can see a town Vivax trying to meta read geript and fail to get that across. I scumread him initially for that push on geript but now that re-evaluated in the context of all his gameplay it doesn't seem so bad.

And not saying you're wrong on geript, doesn't mean anything, that's NAI, most veterans are intelligent enough to drop a scumlean once a tracker claim is verified.

TLDR - your cases are poor, I think you're taking things out of context, and I think you are pushing him for poor reasons. what you are saying does not exclusively make him scum, and in the context of his later game play he's a slight townlean.

If you are scum - I want to look into what Breshke said on you on 341 if I ever get the time today - this would be one of the reasons.
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
July 15 2015 20:30 GMT
#6953
Yeh he's been pushing me all game based on a meta read, but I've told him once he's completely misinterpreting my meta. Boxerfred, this is a large game. Most of town is at a crossroads right now, myself included and people - myself included - are not going to push someone without being fully confident in their read, which has been hampered by a combination of suboptimal play, digging through and trying to understand a much larger thread and much larger filters, and also newer players (e.g. milo, MZ, ruXxar, Clarity, WoS for me) that I am unfamiliar with, whereas, in Not Themed, I played with nearly everyone there before.

That said, his read is within the realm of possibilities (believable) for his experience with me but it is wrong. His read on me does not make him scum.

I do not however, understand why he is scumreading Oats. I think even Vivax asked him that too. I have him as town.
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
July 15 2015 20:31 GMT
#6954
EBWOP - I shouldn't have said "newer" players with WoS and Clarity, but point being players I'm just not familiar with.
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
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