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EBH shot would fall into the same thing though....LS do you advocate shooting for information or shooting for the percentage play?
HF/Ras/Ruxxar - for information you'd have to shoot into that bunch unless somehow you can ferret whose most likely scum in that bunch and shoot that person. That's pretty obvious. Which might mean checking Trfel's case anyways in spite of DMA if we are to consider shooting Ruxxar. I mean Trfel is probably town because of DMA, but his reads COULD be off....though when he's town, he IS usually right. But as NSM7 proved...though he was active in that game, not always right.
But this next shot is pretty critical regardless because right now, town are pretty all over the place so I think this is valid point of discussion.
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EBWOP - I also say shooting into Ruxxar for the sheer fact it was brought up before to NOT shoot either HF or Ras and leave them for late game. Not because I am firm on Rux being mafia yet.
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On July 15 2015 00:03 ruXxar wrote:
what is DMA?
Dick move analysis - marv explained it to me D1.
On July 08 2015 01:40 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2015 01:39 Half the Sky wrote:
Quick aside: someone remind me of what dick move analysis is? when someone says something so dickish, you don't think they'd say it as a ruse as mafia because it would make them a total cock, you think they have to genuinely believe it.
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On July 14 2015 22:58 Harkon wrote:
1) Marvellosity (filter) - p likely town
2) Scott31337 (filter) - maybe scum?
3) WaveofShadow (filter) - bad
4) Clarity_nl (filter) - i think town or playing a really good scumgame
5) ruXxar (filter) - i thought town? Trfel made me doubt
6) Vivax (filter) - no idea
10) boxerfred (filter) - I think town?
12) Trfel (filter) - dick move town?
13) LightningStrike (filter) - town
15) ObiWanShinobi (filter) - no idea
18) Breshke (filter) - no idea
19) Oatsmaster (filter) - long filter, townish?
21) rsoultin (filter) - ?
22) Half The Sky (filter) - townish
23) Harkon (filter) - town
24) Holyflare (filter) - ?
25) XEliteBlueHunter69X (filter) - no idea
Where I stand....
1) Marvellosity (filter) - town
2) Scott31337 (filter) - probably mafia
3) WaveofShadow (filter) - town solely on meta, but that meta could be broken. Would leave alone due to potential mod action.
4) Clarity_nl (filter) - town - not ever played with him, ignoring meta he's town
5) ruXxar (filter) - didn't like him at the beginning (back and forth with Ras), and then thought he was slightly better last cycle
6) Vivax (filter) - went from slight scumlean to slight townlean
10) boxerfred (filter) - very light townread
12) Trfel (filter) - would buy into DMA - town
13) LightningStrike (filter) - town, confirmed
15) ObiWanShinobi (filter) - town, but have been wrong on him before (Aperture, JOAT)
18) Breshke (filter) - town
19) Oatsmaster (filter) - town based on his interactions/putting self out there
21) rsoultin (filter) - was pretty sure she was town
22) Half The Sky (filter) - townish
23) Harkon (filter) - town
24) Holyflare (filter) - thought scum through most of d2/n2, not sure either way now
25) XEliteBlueHunter69X (filter) - null to scumlean
If I'm wrong on people I think I could be wrong on the following people:
WoS (easily broken meta)
Clarity (unfamiliarity if he is playing his scum game but someone else needs to flip before we cross this bridge I think)
ruXxar (duh)
Vivax (still adjusting to his new meta after bombing him in assassination, not sure why he wasn't analysing scummy behavior by the DT claims, which led to a reasonable rationale to doubt them, although I think he said otherwise for milo? I cannot remember),
boxerfred (easily broken meta but what he IS questioning seems reasonable I think?)
OWS (poor track record of reading him)
and Ras/HF are pretty obvious.
Harkon, why is Breshke a tossup for you?
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On July 15 2015 00:09 Holyflare wrote:
I have a wild theory that only nk's can clarify. Also damdred did not carry kp so someone not talked about as being mafia is likely mafia (from day 1).
I can definitely agree with this.
I said ows/oats because it was lazy poe but obi actually being serious is so out of character that he's probably mafia. Oats is probably town for not nking or rbing geript after the whole tmi shit and that whole argument was towny anyway for thinkint along those lines.
You said lazy POE but OWS is apparently hard to meta. Honest question Holyflare -
How confident are you in a read where OWS has only rolled mafia 3 games (per database - Hajime is not accurate, he was town in that game) and the last game before Aperture it was at least a year ago.
But let's say your read is holding true.
Couple things here - if EBH is VA, it could point to him also being scum - apparently he prides himself on being the know all on people's metas or however he phrased it in Himalayas....and he and OWS were scum in Aperture. It's a stretch, but....
This all said, I'll check Aperture 4, I don't remember OWS that well in that game. Per database, database is wrong on Hajime - he was town, and the only other two scum games are too far long ago, not sure if that could be reliable.
On July 15 2015 00:09 Holyflare wrote:
Scott is mafia because when i did some shitty martyring he didn't conclude i was mafia even after i did the exact same thing to get out of a lynch as mafia last game and he was my shadow so knows. Also some of trfel's points if you twist them enough are good cases for scott being mafia. He's also posting in newbie game and not here and all his posts seem to be reactionary omgus' lately.
So so far it's probably scott/ebh/obi/+x (rsoul, kelsier, bf most likely).
Well KSC will flip soon, so we'll see...
As for the shadow argument, that's not a strong point only because I hosted Himalayas and there wasn't a whole lot going on in your shadow qt. Yeh he could have just perched and done nothing, who knows. If he was interacting more your point there would be stronger.
Trfel's case on Scott is actually decent though. Although I can't really talk about NSM12 I am in that game too but I will just say that if you just have a look his posting in NSM12 it's not hard to tell that his involvement in that game would really tell anything either way.
My scumread on Scott largely comes from an interaction I had with him last cycle, he talks about interactions with Damdred and I crosschecked multiple people he cited even after checking Damdred's filter and it didn't add up.
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EBWOP - OWS's last scum game was Aperture 4 (since there were multiple Aperture games)
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On July 15 2015 00:32 Half the Sky wrote:
You said lazy POE but OWS is apparently hard to meta. Honest question Holyflare -
How confident are you in a read where OWS has only rolled mafia 3 games (per database - Hajime is not accurate, he was town in that game) and the last game before Aperture it was at least a year ago.
Actually I should probably ask this question not just of Holyflare but anyone else (Oats I see now) who is scumreading OWS. I'm not necessarily defending him nor do I think reads on him make anyone scum, but this is a question you should ask yourselves before you lynch him.
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Oats, ninjaed me but Holyflare is using a meta point to scumread him, so....curious to hear from him....
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On July 15 2015 00:34 Oatsmaster wrote:
Well HTS, scott said most suspicious interactions, so if they dont mention the dude being lynched, thats pretty damn suspicious.
In any case, if you asked me between OWS and Scott whom to lynch, I'd say Scott, no contest.
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Page reference might be easier since you can see the whole conversation. I know BF and I were in the thread with him when this went down and it was 5-6am my time. Hold on.
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On July 15 2015 00:38 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2015 00:37 Half the Sky wrote:On July 15 2015 00:34 Oatsmaster wrote:
Well HTS, scott said most suspicious interactions, so if they dont mention the dude being lynched, thats pretty damn suspicious.
In any case, if you asked me between OWS and Scott whom to lynch, I'd say Scott, no contest. Why exactly was scotts analysis of peoples interactions with damdred scummy? Can you quote the relevant posts from scotts filter?
Start from the second to last post on the bottom of page 284 and then continue to about midway page 285 where Boxerfred quits the thread. You will see where OWS says "shut up Scott" and even after Trfel qualifies my accusation I go back and check the filters of the other people he's mentioning and it's just flat out rubbish that he'd say that.
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On July 12 2015 14:16 scott31337 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2015 13:40 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
I'm losing all motivation to play this game. It's too goddamn big at this point and it's barely day 3.
I'm really hoping milo and scott are mafia because, if they're not, I'm afraid I'm never going to find more mafia.
Do we even have more scumreads outside of those two? This is a pretty bad idea - I just was filter diving on who talked about/with Damdred - You, Boxer, Trfel and Milo looked the worst, and Breshke, HalfTheSky and Vivax look much more interactive with him. What do you think of Boxerfred?
For everyone else this is the quote in question. Bottom of page 284.
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On July 15 2015 00:45 Holyflare wrote:
Finallyyyy get to go home!
Shut up....I have to work until 2200. Someone please (vig) shoot me...
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On July 15 2015 00:37 Oatsmaster wrote:
OWS has posted a decent amount, but he has been totally missing.
Like really, can you remember one post by him?
One scumread by him?
Cause I cant. And that really falls into scum staying low.
Posts a decent amount, but none of that is really useful/controversial or even memorable.
I'll see if it's possible for me to look at his filter realistically in another angle....
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On July 15 2015 00:45 Holyflare wrote:
Finallyyyy get to go home!
Also still am curious - when you can - as to how you are seemingly quite confident in that OWS read (seemingly a tone read) based on his history from the database.
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On July 12 2015 14:16 scott31337 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2015 13:40 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
I'm losing all motivation to play this game. It's too goddamn big at this point and it's barely day 3.
I'm really hoping milo and scott are mafia because, if they're not, I'm afraid I'm never going to find more mafia.
Do we even have more scumreads outside of those two? This is a pretty bad idea - I just was filter diving on who talked about/with Damdred - You, Boxer, Trfel and Milo looked the worst, and Breshke, HalfTheSky and Vivax look much more interactive with him. What do you think of Boxerfred?
Let me clarify.
At Oats - basically he's saying that based on interactions with Damdred, 4 people looked really bad.
I checked Damdred's filter first, then Trfel qualified it by saying the conclusion was based off HIS filter.
So I went back and checked BF and OWS's filter and there were hardly any interactions between them and Damdred, and Damdred himself I think mentioned BF once in a question in passing) and OWS there was jack all.
I hardly interacted with Damdred D1, I know I townread him until the reservations on his pushes came up.
The point is, and especially now that Trfel is looking better and that milo is flipped town, this adds some weight to the fact that 1) Scott is taking things out of context here 2) his claims at least on 3 of the 4 people are definitiely not true, and he's saying I'm more interactive with him and without even checking Breshke and Vivax's filters, I KNOW that's wrong at least on me.
Basically what I'm saying is, those reads and much of that statement is contrived.
And I dropped the argument because he was wrong on the other two, I felt there was nothing to debate and it was 7am my time Sunday morning (and I was up all night Saturday night).
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EBWOP - The point is, and especially now that Trfel is looking better and that milo is flipped town, this adds some weight to the fact that 1) Scott is taking things out of context here 2) his claims at least on 3 of the 4 people are definitiely not true, and he's saying I'm more interactive with him and without even checking Breshke and Vivax's filters, I KNOW that's wrong at least on me.
Also 3) considering the people he's listed, and he's not giving in depth reads at all you also have the argument given that none of Trfel/BF/Milo had murky/null or worse standings with town, those are really easy people to push.
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On July 15 2015 01:10 Clarity_nl wrote:
I'd be shocked if kelsier flips red
Same.
Marv, I know you were getting paranoid of him at one point but this is your moment of truth...
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[QUOTE]On July 15 2015 01:09 ruXxar wrote:
Ok, so I'm thinking that kelsier is going to be a very interesting flip if he's mafia.
Once we have 2 mafia flipped we can start analyizing inter-mafia behavior and try to glean some information from how they interact(or don't!) with each other.
Until then it's sort of hard to draw any associative patterns between people.
Why are you so sure KSC was mafia?
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On July 15 2015 01:09 ruXxar wrote:
Ok, so I'm thinking that kelsier is going to be a very interesting flip if he's mafia.
Once we have 2 mafia flipped we can start analyizing inter-mafia behavior and try to glean some information from how they interact(or don't!) with each other.
Until then it's sort of hard to draw any associative patterns between people.
Why are you so sure KSC was mafia?
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EPT
