Ruxx - I think you're town here. I was in the last game with Onegu and he played exactly the same as he has here (more or less). I wanted to lynch him at lylo too, but I realised (as you did) that we shouldn't end this game on a coin flip. If he's town, which I think he is, then he'll start giving a shit once it gets much closer to the end.

Next game I say we policy lynch him at the start. But this game, I don't think that's the play.

Fidei86

United Kingdom2116 Posts

June 30 2015 14:19 GMT

#4530

That's not how I read what happened. GB came out and said he had a red check on you and an inference check on Mig. Mig wasn't in any way "outing" you when he spoke out later on - you were already in the firing line. What Mig did eventually led to us ML'ing the cop, which surely has to be worth it from a mafia perspective (the votes on Mig and you split, as you'll recall).

@Ruxx I say we lynch HF, then Damdred, and then whoever's left can decide whether or not the last lynch is Shockkey or Onegu. I'll be long dead by that point anyway.

Fidei86

United Kingdom2116 Posts

June 30 2015 14:38 GMT

#4532

Because it's not actually what happened? What happened was that we ML'ed the cop. Mafia (as you will know, being one yourself) just want to delay out the game. The mafia then got the chance to NK the jailkeeper and rsoult (who was our best player left), rather than the one NK they would have had before Mig flipped. That's a HUGE win for the mafia.

And obviously Mig flipping doesn't doom you, since you're STILL here and I'm STILL having to convince everyone to lynch you.

Fidei86

United Kingdom2116 Posts

June 30 2015 14:39 GMT

#4533

Put another way, Mig and you were both up shit creek. The CC created enough confusion for us to ML the cop, which means that, rather than lynching you or Mig (which, as you say, confirms you both as mafia and GB as the cop), we MLed the cop and gave the mafia an extra night kill.

Fidei86

United Kingdom2116 Posts

June 30 2015 15:36 GMT

#4542

HF - I don't need to convince you that you are mafia, I need to convince everyone else.

Everyone else - we have a RED CHECK from the CONFIRMED COP on HF. If you are town and you're not sure who to vote for, that should be more than enough for you. Don't let HF's consistent insistence that he is town fool you.

Fidei86

United Kingdom2116 Posts

June 30 2015 15:39 GMT

#4544

Also HF - I am the one who actually had access to rsoult's QT. So I think people can trust me when I say that rsoult was leaning scum on you, and was happy to lynch you.

Fidei86

United Kingdom2116 Posts

June 30 2015 15:54 GMT

#4556

Or they're misguided town and mafia? And I use the term 'misguided' loosely, since obviously if you are mafia you have played very well indeed to get this many people to misread you :-)

I'm not moving my vote, and I urge everyone else to please do your duty and vote on the red check.

Fidei86

United Kingdom2116 Posts

June 30 2015 15:58 GMT

#4560

The only thing that makes me think you might actually be town is the fact that you haven't actually tried to get another wagon going yet. Which is, admittedly, a little strange. Still, it's not helping your case either way.

Fidei86

United Kingdom2116 Posts

June 30 2015 15:59 GMT

#4562

it's not WIFOM, it's a matter of simple statistics. You are far more likely to be mafia, on a percentage basis, than you are to be either the miller or framed. We obviously don't even know if there is a miller or a framer, let alone have anything to suggest it might be you who is unlucky enough to be caught by one of them.

Fidei86

United Kingdom2116 Posts

June 30 2015 17:21 GMT

#4599

I'd switch to lynch Shockkey, if we can get four people together to do it. I still think HF is scum 100%, but there's no point having two votes parked on him if everyone else fractures.

Fidei86

United Kingdom2116 Posts

June 30 2015 17:22 GMT

#4600

We could get five, because scum HF likely sheeps town if we can get four townies together.

Fidei86

United Kingdom2116 Posts

June 30 2015 17:23 GMT

#4601

Also, for the post-game cred, I'm going to go for the scum team of HF, Damdred and Shockkey. Rsoult had Ruxx rather than Damdred as the fourth scum, but I'm seeing a Damdred deflect of HF combined with his generally shoddy play this game (in contrast to last game, where he was really strong).

Fidei86

United Kingdom2116 Posts

June 30 2015 17:29 GMT

#4605

BTW if Shockey flips town and HF flips scum, you are all going to feel sooooo stupid that you let him argue you out of a red check.

Fidei86

United Kingdom2116 Posts

June 30 2015 17:31 GMT

#4608

So everyone knows, rsoult was utterly convinced that LS would flip town. I see no reason to question her conclusion, given she is a far better player than I am.

Fidei86

United Kingdom2116 Posts

June 30 2015 17:32 GMT

#4612

So basically I'm at:

Town:
Ruxx
LS
Me

Scum:
HF
Shock

Meh:
Damdred
Onegu

I'm going with Damdred over Onegu because Onegu is useless in every game, whereas Damdred was specifically very helpful in his last game, and has been rubbish in this game.

Fidei86

United Kingdom2116 Posts

June 30 2015 17:37 GMT

#4618

@HF - You say I've played badly this game. I agree. I was not prepared for the massive difference in volume of posts between a 13 player and a 17 player game.

So all I have to rely on is this - with 13 town at the start the odds of you being picked out as the miller are 1/13. Even now, and assuming there is a miller, they are still 1/4. Furthermore, the odds of there both being a framer, and they having framed you on that night, are surely much lower. than 1/4. Therefore, to my mind, the statistics say that you're mafia.

Given that I don't really have any good reads on anybody, I see no reason to colour the raw statistics with my own personal bias.

You don't have to like it, but there are my reasons. I won't be saying them again, as clearly there is no point in reasoning with you either way.

Fidei86

United Kingdom2116 Posts

June 30 2015 17:39 GMT

#4619

On July 01 2015 02:33 NydusHerMain wrote:

Show nested quote +

*cough* T.T *cries*

Haha. I got the numbers wrong *facepalm*

I think NHM is town, because of the early game. Totally different to HG. Worthy of a win if it turns out you're actually scum.

Fidei86

United Kingdom2116 Posts

June 30 2015 17:40 GMT

#4621

On July 01 2015 02:35 Holyflare wrote:
like seriously i've put in a solid like 4 cycle game where i've been trying to solve it at every single juncture and you're being a prick and going "lalalalalala don't care red check", you know how fucking mad that makes me? i'm the towniest guy in this game WITH a red check and everyone is calling me town and you don't give a shit because your 2-3 game knowledge of mafia suddenly makes you superior than the ~20 players in this game that know me far better? i even took a day off work just so i could make cases on gb so that you would lynch him after my flip, no way i am that dedicated as mafia

Stop whining and grow up. This is a game. It's not personal.

Fidei86

United Kingdom2116 Posts

June 30 2015 17:42 GMT

#4622

Also you still haven't posted anything remotely helpful today. You haven't tried to get one other wagon started, you've just been obsessed with my attacks on you. THAT is scummy.

Fidei86

United Kingdom2116 Posts

June 30 2015 17:49 GMT

#4628

Onegu played exactly the same way as this in HG and he was town then too.