Only problem with slam is that I know the last mafia has to be RB and yamato didn't visit anyone n1. It fits as he replaced out, but a little weird not to rb anyone n1 nontheless.
VA I highly doubt he is mafia, FF tried to throw scum on him early game and both mafia wanted to lynch him d3. Oats is in the same boat, both mafia showed great interest in lynching him d1, he simply can't be mafia. Prpl threw scum on both ff and 27nb d1 and his interactions with both don't look fake so he can't really be mafia. What's left is slam and rsoul, neither of which mafia has show interest in lynching and there aren't many meaninful interactions between them.
My lynch order would be slam->rsoul and I'm pretty sure town wins if you follow this.

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

June 02 2015 03:23 GMT

#2502

The way rsoul is playing trying to make va an option I think it's possible she might be the mafia instead of slam. I think slam is way more likely to conceed at this point then she is, she is basically the only one that has a chance of winning this late game.
Oats you have to promisse me that you will lynch rsoul if it comes to lylo you/rsoul/va.

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

June 02 2015 04:17 GMT

#2505

okay I went back and reread va. He actually had no intension of lynching bunnies d1 or 2. Rsoul if she is mafia she played a great game because I went back in her filter and despite being all over the place and never focusing on one person to lynch her interactions with the mafia don't look fake at all. On the other hand VA could have done the fake mason claim to distance from NB and pehaps get a free town read along with rsoul. On the start of d2 VA votes damdred "to keep our options open" which looks fake as fuck. Also FF sets him up pretty nicely to support his 3p claim here:

On May 28 2015 11:39 VayneAuthority wrote:

Show nested quote +

of course.. guess whos winning? lol

He only goes after FF after the NB lynch looks clear cut, he starts off going after onegu. It is pretty nice distancing if they are both scum. VA also insisted on the fact that mafia couldn't all claim and get a win when it's 3-3-1, pehaps knowing that there isn't 3 other mafia if he isn't counted.
Also after rereading Rsoul's filter I think it's very unlikely she is mafia.
So new lynch order is VA -> slam. Why? Because even VA is the survivor this puts town in a better position with 2 townies against 1 mafia, instead of having the survivor that could easily hand the game to mafia if he so wishes. Also I kinda believe that slam would have conceeded by now and looking at VA's play from this new perspective actually makes sense that he is the last mafia.
So yeah, sorry rsoul, you are prob right about VA. Lynch him tomorrow then lynch slam if the game is not over.

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

June 02 2015 04:18 GMT

#2506

On June 02 2015 13:08 Oatsmaster wrote:
Like I really can see VA doing this shit as scum.
Really.

Yes. I saw the light after rereading all game + va/rsoul/slam's filter.

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

June 02 2015 04:25 GMT

#2507

Also the fact that VA hinted blue and didn't get shot by the mafia and the fact that slam/yamato didn't act n1 means VA being mafia is more likely.

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

June 02 2015 07:01 GMT

#2511

he claimed early on d3, no clear lynch had been stablished yet. I figure if rsoul went with it, bunnies would get lynched but he would look quite good. If she didn't, which was the most likely option it would again serve as distancing between the 2. Maybe he would get lynched for it but it would make bunnies look better.
Also he didn't clearly showed he was blue, but both rsoul and ritoky had a "protection role" read on him. If rsoul is the mafia I could see him being shot n1 over HF who would be a likely protection. Hinting blue isn't a likely play as survivor either. Also note the timing in which he started taking the game seriously: as soon as a clear d2 wagon is forming on 27nb and he goes ahead and tries to divert towns attention to damdred.

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

June 02 2015 07:06 GMT

#2512

Either way VA mafia sided all this game. He is likely the last mafia and even if he is survivor he will likely side with mafia in lylo. Kill him tomorrow 100%.

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

June 02 2015 07:44 GMT

#2514

On May 25 2015 12:02 VayneAuthority wrote:
had to work dat overtime on a sunday. Instant pile on of NB is...interesting to say the least.

I know the holyflare kill here is a respect kill, but he was pretty much the only person willing to let NB slide with her claim. So either they just completely ignored that and killed him anyway if nb is mafia or this is an incorrect lynch.

If the former you would have to think about who might disregard everything and kill holyflare out of fear. I don't know the playerlist that well so unfortunately I can't really help there.

Anyone that has played with me knows I do not do fear kills, i make game kills so if it wasnt already obvious that i wasnt mafia well that should seal it up.

On May 25 2015 12:33 VayneAuthority wrote:
i dont really care about worthless claims like being a vet, it is unverifiable and unless we want to mass claim right now it is 100% useless info.

What is important is how nb basically held the game hostage for a short time and stalled on her claim and has been giving extremely vague maybe im a role maybe not hints. I don't know better then anyone else if its just some one overexcited at being a blue but its generally more mafia-ish play as it gives you outs.

My other reads were damdred who is bracketed against nb (dont think they are mafia together) and then i had a very mild scum/neural read on yamato who just got replaced.

Onegu/fuba could both easily be mafia. thats about it for me as of now

On May 25 2015 12:34 VayneAuthority wrote:
im going to keep our options open and vote for damdred again, hopefully one of them get lynched.

##vote damdred

On May 25 2015 13:01 VayneAuthority wrote:
a bit too tryhard meaning i am town i guess? It wouldnt make any sense for me to be tryhard as scum with no scum flip. that would mean the game is in control and i could just afkmeta to victory

Here you see VA has a pretty guilty concience and keep trying to feed us he can't be mafia for stupid reasons. The same way he goes about his mason claim. Also this is the time he stops his gimmick and tries to divert our attention from 27nb to damdred. He rails on nb pretty hard but votes damdred "because only 1 mafia between them and damdred is his strongest scum read, but never really explains why damdred is such a strong scum read and goes into detail on nb.
I can't find a reason as survivor to take such a mafia sided stance at that point in the game. It's pretty clear he thinks nb's claim isn't good, but makes sure to subtly defend her based on the night kill and based on his rule that damdred an nb cant be scum together and damdred is randomly more scummy.
Also not claiming survivor d1 is a pretty big tell. Mafia can't claim it because they risk being counter claimed by the real survivor. Survivor will definitely claim because he doesn't want to get killed in the night and mafia can't risk one of their members to counter claim him.

On May 26 2015 12:01 VayneAuthority wrote:
oh fuba is mkfuba...probably town then. compare his early filter here to his early filters in these games.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/439654-a-quiet-game-of-mini-mafia?user=mkfuba07 - town

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/432880-white-flag-mafia?user=mkfuba07 - mafia

both super short filters to illustrate a point, his tone and focus is quite different. As town he'll tend to get right into it and back posts without needing prompting, while as mafia he just responds to people directly and has a slightly different tone/way of typing. you could look at more games if you want but i think these are sufficient.

On May 27 2015 11:49 VayneAuthority wrote:
ok one of bunnies or fuba is definitely lying/scum if fuba legit claimed jailkeeper.

So VA thinks one of Fuba/bunnies is definitely mafia and has a clear town read on fuba. But he never even votes or pushes bunnies? Again no reason for a survivor to mafia side at that point in the game, since it's d2. The man is mafia.

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

June 02 2015 07:46 GMT

#2515

On June 02 2015 16:34 prplhz wrote:
wait

slam or va tomorrow

VA tomorrow 100%.

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

June 02 2015 14:07 GMT

#2520

prpl/oats/rsoul can't be mafia after reading filters. Just kill va pls.

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