Newbie Student Mafia VII - Page 4

Trfel

7015 Posts

April 14 2015 16:53 GMT

#1468

Ugh, I suppose I'm not so sure that I want to lynch Stutters695 any more, either. While I feel that is prplhz read is wrong and the information he presents is also wrong, he has been very forceful about it. The initial reason for scumreading Stutters695 (not driving discussion) isn't as valid any more. Stutters695 could be scum here, but I'd like to give him some more time.

##vote The Shining

I demonstrated previously why I don't like The Shining's posting to this point. It's possible that he is just busy, but I feel that he has a fairly good chance of flipping scum. I'll take another look at his, Ace1312's, and Bourneq's filters in a bit, hopefully. Right now, I need to head out for lunch.

Trfel

7015 Posts

April 14 2015 17:55 GMT

#1486

I was away at lunch. I don't have much more time at all.

What I did do is I took (arguably) the most suspicious part of prplhz's filter, and I showed why I view it as towny.

I don't see at all why prplhz would decide to switch to Stutters695 to mislynch him instead of plotspot. I mean, I suppose it's possible, but I don't think that this is something that mafia would want to do, as the gain feels minimal, while the amount of work required is much more. Getting the lynch off of plotspot wasn't very likely anyway. I just don't think that the mafia motivation to do this is significant.

On April 15 2015 02:14 Half the Sky wrote:

Show nested quote +

Directed at Trfel - this is the quote to support what he was working through.

I just don't see it. Prplhz gave reasons. At this point, he was sort of acting on feel as well (everyone was). Yes, he could have feasibly chosen anyone in Tubesock's list to switch votes to, but he provided his reasons for doing so, so it doesn't matter? Given the chances he had of getting the Stutters695 lynch, there's next to zero mafia motivation at all for the play that he made.

I don't think that Stutters695 presented a valid case at all. I think that his case is a misrepresentation of prplhz's play, and I arrive at the exact opposite conclusion.

As for prplhz's stances on TheBloodyDwarf and Bourneq, I don't think it's terribly significant at this time. He sees two new players, objectively inexperienced. One of them, he sees where their play is coming from, and he townreads them, while the other he scumreads. This is plausible enough. Also, were I scum with TheBloodyDwarf, I would just bus him. He's not really worth defending, unless he's the roleblocker, and maybe even then. TheBloodyDwarf stands a good chance of being lynched at some point in the game, and if he does flip scum, prplhz will look very bad for his defense.

Yes, it's possible that his push on Stutters695 was done as scum. Yes, it's possible that prplhz is scum with TheBloodyDwarf and is thus defending him while trying to get Bourneq lynched. But neither of those reasons really implicate him. And concluding that prplhz is scum because of this ignores the rest of his filter, in which he has been extremely active and has been trying to solve the game. I don't see why it should be assumed that these actions are scummy, when they could just as easily (if not moreso) come from town, given prplhz's overall filter level.

Trfel

7015 Posts

April 14 2015 18:01 GMT

#1487

Stutters695, I disagree. He showed more willingness to lynch you than others, even if his primary goal was probably avoiding lynching plotspot. He stayed around and kept playing until people seemed willing to switch to you, and then left. Basically, he left after deciding where his vote should be. Given prplhz's behavior before his vote switch, he seemed very eager to switch votes (I don't think that he is the type of player to run around screaming with all caps).

Trfel

7015 Posts

April 14 2015 18:06 GMT

#1489

Yeah, Half the Sky, I'm sorry for being gone for so long.

I just don't have much time today at all. I spend yesterday catching up on the thread, which took basically the whole day. And today, I only have an hour and a half to actually prepare for the lynch.

I was townreading Breshke earlier, but maybe people are on to something, as it seems that a lot of people want to lynch him. I'll spend maybe ten minutes looking at him now, but perhaps that is something for people to look in to.

Trfel

7015 Posts

April 14 2015 18:22 GMT

#1491

Ok, I need to head out. Yay for being still in school.......

See you guys (hopefully) before the deadline.

Final note, did anyone else find The Shining's phrasing weird?

On April 15 2015 02:35 The Shining wrote:
I have absolutely 0 chance of flipping scum.

Imagine, if you are town, I don't think this is the natural phrasing. I would say "I am town" or "I am not scum". It's not terribly important, but it seems a little off to me.

I'll take a look at what The Shining does between now and the deadline (assuming I get a chance), but he hasn't done anything that makes me want to keep him alive yet.

Trfel

7015 Posts

April 14 2015 20:23 GMT

#1535

What's happening?

Trfel

7015 Posts

April 14 2015 20:25 GMT

#1538

I think it's best to just bury The Shining. I don't really see him being town here. I'm still on page 76, so maybe the next page will change things, but.....

Trfel

7015 Posts

April 14 2015 20:27 GMT

#1542

I'm pretty confident that prplhz is town here.

The only thing to the contrary is that perhaps he is capable of more than I expect. He played quite well in XXX mafia (as town), so maybe his scum game is better than I have been led to believe. But even so, his play in this game has seemed rather townie.

Trfel

7015 Posts

April 14 2015 20:28 GMT

#1545

On April 15 2015 05:26 TheBloodyDwarf wrote:

Show nested quote +

Im just waiting to see are you guys going to lynch me so I can do my final post and waste my vote.

I don't think it's that hard for you to avoid being lynched here (assuming you are town). Just stick with it.

Trfel

7015 Posts

April 14 2015 20:29 GMT

#1546

On April 15 2015 05:28 Breshke wrote:
RSO could easily be scum here for thinking i was town enough to vote shining straight after i do.basically cheerleadering.me then trying to wagon me with shining when she thinks i.womt rock up.

It's possible that rsoultin is scum, but that's not something I care to go into at this time. For obvious reasons.

Trfel

7015 Posts

April 14 2015 20:32 GMT

#1551

On April 15 2015 05:30 TheBloodyDwarf wrote:
I really feel bad tho. People asking me what I think and why I dont post scumhunting. Simple fact is that I don't really find anybody scummy. I only see if people are active or not and are they answering questions. Pretty bad at analyzing posts :/

I hardly remember who is scumhunting who and who they were scumhunting.

If you avoid being lynched today, I'm sure we can help you with this after the deadline. Taking notes could help a lot.

Trfel

7015 Posts

April 14 2015 20:35 GMT

#1557

Shoot, I gotta talk to someone.....

May not be back until End of Day. Or at least, I'll be distracted.

Trfel

7015 Posts

April 14 2015 20:42 GMT

#1566

On April 15 2015 05:39 rsoultin wrote:
##vote: Breshke

i'll consolidate on dwarf or maybe bourne if i have to, but i'm not lynching prp or shining today

NO YOU NEED TO LYNCH THE SHINING

GIVE ME A BIT I WILL SHOW YOU WHY

I CANT REALLY PLAY RIGHT NOW BUT LYNCH THE SHINING

Trfel

7015 Posts

April 14 2015 20:45 GMT

#1571

LYNCH THE SHINING

Trfel

7015 Posts

April 14 2015 20:50 GMT

#1581

The Shining

On April 12 2015 15:15 The Shining wrote:
Woah. 49 pages D1/N1 on a newbie student game. Woohoo!

I get to read the entire game up to this point with no breaks. In all its glory. I'm thinking I'll find our first scum. Wish me luck.

Inb4 useless entry post. Never replaced before so idc.

On April 12 2015 15:47 The Shining wrote:
Sort of. Top of page 23. At this pace, I should be caught up before EoN though, provided I don't fall asleep lol.

Nice to see you again, JJB. I came in dead set on nailing you in particular if I read you as scum at all(See: our last game together). I'm really hoping your alignment is diff this time around lol.

Again, The Shining is reading 16 pages in about 30 minutes. He hasn't read the game very carefully at all. However, he doesn't seem to suggest that at all, he's trying to appear to be at full capability.

He provides a preliminary series of reads. They are as follows:

Stutters695 looks bad because of mentioning Ace1312 as a fallback lynch, and because his reads are different from The Shining's reads (which he hasn't provided any reasons for whatsoever at this time, and which is a terrible reason to scumread anyone)
Noncommittal townreads on rsoultin and jarjarbinks (minimal reasoning)
Townreads Tubesock for his post on TheBloodyDwarf
Suspicious of TheBloodyDwarf (only potential reason mentioned is Tubesock's post)
Noncommittal nullreads on Onegu, Half the Sky, and Bourneq

And then he leaves. He hasn't done anything whatsoever that is hard to do, he's provided almost no reasoning and no original thought. Also note that he hasn't hinted at all about his activity being lacking, he's discussed reading the thread, and hasn't used his replacing as an excuse at all. In fact, he seems optimistic.

Then, suddenly, he comes back while there is a threat of him being lynched, less than four hours to the deadline. Suddenly he's blaming activity a ton, suddenly he's trying to do things. This doesn't look good at all. The Shining is scum.

Trfel

7015 Posts

April 14 2015 20:53 GMT

#1587

Rsoultin, swap to The Shining.

Trfel

7015 Posts

April 14 2015 20:56 GMT

#1594

On April 15 2015 05:54 rsoultin wrote:
not gonna

i explicitly said i'm not fucking lynching prp or shining today

And I don't care, because I don't like your reasons for not lynching The Shining?

He simply isn't doing anything that I find impressive. He's been inconsistent for how much he blames his availability and his replacing into the game, to the level where I feel that he's trying to survive instead of trying to catch scum.

Trfel

7015 Posts

April 14 2015 20:58 GMT

#1601

On April 15 2015 05:56 The Shining wrote:
Breshke Trfel team? Trying to save BD?

This isn't something that a townie jumps to at this time, before the flip. Town waits for the flip and then says this (or it's an obvious possibility, if he dies).

This is something that a scum does to discredit his wagon. There's no reason to suddenly ignore everything else in the thread and randomly call out a full scum team.

The Shining is mafia.

Trfel

7015 Posts

April 14 2015 20:59 GMT

#1604

If I must choose between a townread and a null read, I choose a null read.

Not very pleased with you guys.

##unvote
##vote TheBloodyDwarf