EPTTL Mafia LXX: Guardians of the Galaxy - Page 49
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12970 Posts
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12970 Posts
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Artanis[Xp]
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On March 31 2015 04:46 ritoky wrote: how cunning? | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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I'd consider waiting till EoN but only having 20 minutes to discuss could be a problem, idk. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12970 Posts
On March 31 2015 05:04 ritoky wrote: am I allowed to just quote my other 100 posts about him? No, reread his filter, check some other games and rethink stuff. I want to see fresh thoughts on him. (not immediately though obv as I want to make sure no one's really influenced by other people's reads at this point in time going into his filter) | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12970 Posts
On March 31 2015 05:07 Toadesstern wrote: do you think he's a viable and likely lynch above Breshke/FF/ritoky tomorrow? I'd honestly rather make sure we make absolutely get a mafia tomorrow if there's only 2 mafia in the above 3 to ensure we don't get massive paranoia tomorrow... No, I don't think he's a viable lynch until lylo but we're one man short of PoE and I'd like to start trying to find our last man here. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12970 Posts
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Artanis[Xp]
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Artanis[Xp]
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12970 Posts
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12970 Posts
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12970 Posts
Damdred Activity Mafia: Imperial: 26/510 pages pages, D6 -> 5% Titanic: 2 pages, 1 cycle -> unreliable but low Town: Void: 11/146 pages, D3 -> 7.5% Linux: 10/130 pages, N1 -> 7.6% Horn of Africa: 9/118 (at that time) pages, D1 -> 7.6% Slytherin: 18/135 pages, D3 -> 13.3% This game: 20/408 pages -> 4.9% Two sidenotes to this: 1. Imperial and LXX are simply a ton spammier than the town games he's played. 2. Damdred's already said before the game he'd be afk for large amounts of time (first post in filter).[/spoiler] Meta Mafia I read Damdred's Titanic game where he replaced into Breshke's slot as scum. What I noticed here were three things: Damdred doesn't push his suspects that hard as mafia. Damdred had reads earlier on that he never got back to (could be simply because he didn't spend much time ingame) Damdred claims Rsoultin has a strong read on her, and she does on him. In Imperial, Damdred asked a lot of questions that didn't really do anything like these: + Show Spoiler [quotes] + On January 01 2015 02:27 Damdred wrote: Since you aren't in the mood to lynch geript today, are you going to try to push robik down the lynch today? Or just trying to get him to do stuff On January 01 2015 02:30 Damdred wrote: Then why aren't you voting him? All of this push and you aren't voting? On January 01 2015 09:52 Damdred wrote: @DrH don't think i forgot about you i'm working on it while I talk to GB. @GB, what do you think about it do you feel like he was blue fishing making a joke? On January 02 2015 11:40 Damdred wrote: SL what about the framer and millers? Do you think mafia really reacts the way that he did here? This is just a small grasp of the questions that don't lead anywhere he asks. He makes many. Summarizing Mafia meta: Less posty, engages his scumread a lot, useless questions, forgetful. Town: First thing I notice is how Damdred talks with confidence and goes in against Gobble's read on Rayn hard and with confidence. He's generally quite confident. On February 08 2015 12:52 Damdred wrote: Errr rayn actually looks really town? What else do you have for what's been going on On February 08 2015 14:01 Damdred wrote: Right now your posts are weird you cast shadows without conclusions in your posts On February 09 2015 12:57 Damdred wrote: I don't think you got the point at all. Posting less has nothing to do with what I said at all. Furthermore, Damdred's scumread on Gobble leads him to push the lynch and push it hard and doesn't let go. In Horn of Africa, Damdred was a strong suspect on D1 and it made him post a lot. In this game, he was also really sure of Rsoultin being scum and pushed her hard. Summarizing Town meta: Confidence, pushing the lynches he wants hard. Questions also tend to be much more directed and reads oriented. This game One thing to note is that Rsoultin has had a townread on Damdred from the start. She's also kept dropping reasons for them/things she expects town Damdred to do. First thing that worries me in his filter is this: On March 20 2015 07:11 Damdred wrote: I think ff case is good, and the points brought are decent. Like I do think it's bad LS is being lazy a bit here as has been pointed out I'm not sure it's worth a vote but it's something to think about Damdred likes FF's case on LS, says it's something to think about.. then doesn't really think about it until he makes his big VCA post. (Intermezzo Vivax theory: A FF/Damdred bus on LS would make sense, especially if it was the plan for D2 but got trifled by Trfel checking him before it happened) What also bothers me in hindsight is that his case on Vivax wasn't followed by a vote and a push. In his town games, he kept repeating "Gobble is scum" or "Rso is scum". This game, Damdred does not seem as sold on Vivax being scum where he usually has been as town. Then the first big VCA post. I still really like it and I think it's a strong argument for a town Damdred. All of his reads read genuine to me, are developed well (though townreading FF, Palmar and Breshke worries me, I can see the motivation for FF at that juncture in any case, and Breshke's scumgames do look pretty terrible so I can't blame him there either but Palmar was really questionable) The biggest problem with his reads is that they've been very wrong. TR on Palmar, scum on Exo, Slam, and Superbia means that it definitely could've been made from a scum perspective. There's one thing that stands out to me in his reads post, I'm not sure what people think about it: This leaves me in a world where I have two mafia or one depending on setup between Superbia, Trfel and Artanis. I'm just wondering if it's something Mafia or Town would add in. Mafia might be worried about TMI; they would've read the questions Superbia and Trfel asked and it could be in their heads "don't betray how many mafia there are". Something to consider. I also really hate this post: On March 22 2015 02:47 Damdred wrote: Shoot like Exo and Trfel/Artanis Gives us the most information Damdred scumreads Slam/Exo/Superbia/LS, yet calls for the shot to be between Exo and Trfel/Me. What's really weird about this is that Slam is probably the least likely to confirm himself as town, and remain unreadable forever. The fact that Damdred softpushed for a shot on me is not good. The biggest problem for me in Damdred's filter is that besides those two posts, he's not really doing anything.. He isn't pushing his scumreads. He isn't really engaging anyone, just posting oneliners. Also On March 25 2015 11:26 Damdred wrote: I kinda want to lynch breske This kinda came out of nowhere as Damdred had been townreading Breshke a few times already before. It bothers me that I don't know why Damdred thinks Breshke is scum at this juncture because usually Damdred is very clear about who he wants to lynch and pushes it hard. Then there's his second VCA, which mostly concludes that scum wanted to lynch BM over Vivax since Palmar made the late switch (if this is the case, Mafia know about it anyway so it's an easy point to make) and then goes into the reasons for why they would or wouldn't switch to BM, but he doesn't really base his conclusions on them. It feels more like he had his conclusions already ready (in his townreads) and simply found another narrative to tell them. Conclusion Honestly, there's a lot of things that really worry me about this Damdred. He's showing scumtraits in that he hasn't really cared about who gets lynched, hasn't really appeared to be confident and I don't get where his read progression on Breshke came from when I usually have no problem following Damdred's thoughts. What still gives me pause is that he's never made these kinds of big cases/VCA's as scum, and that they're really hard to fabricate. I also know Damdred hates playing scum so from that perspective I find it unlikely he'd put this much effort into it, but I'm just not sure on him. I don't know what to think about Damdred. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12970 Posts
On March 31 2015 07:42 Toadesstern wrote: Fuck all the shit I had prepared in here that you don't need, everything that matters: VERY unlikely to come from mafia if the entire plan was to see town in chaos d2 as we see a reapeat of d1 and lynch between Vivax/Toad. I think I'm stopping here. I wouldn't put him under as confirmed as the other ones but it seems likely that he's just confused / paranoid townie and thus makes no sense at times as he's all over the place with stuff that sometimes sounds really bad (content) while generally sounding townish to me (tonewise) as well as straight up playing against mafia agenda with his stance on there being 2 townvigs relatively early. The quote was still during n1 and they could have changed their strategy if mafia thought it's not a good idea at that point in time. I don't really think that exonerates Damdred. It's a lot easier for scum to connect the dots since they know it's two vigis rather than town. It always feels great to be correct. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12970 Posts
Also please skim through my post asap and feedback whilst you still can since there's a good chance you're dying tonight. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12970 Posts
Also also also Vikings is becoming worse and worse :/ | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12970 Posts
On March 31 2015 07:48 Onegu wrote: Only thing in going to really comment on is he seems to be right a lot. Lime more than I would expect but he never really pushes his lunches that hard. Second he believes me and HF are masons together, but then when HF dies he like yeah obv HF wasn't mason he crumbed it a lot. He was really wrong on his first VCA, I went into that in my post. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12970 Posts
On March 31 2015 07:51 Damdred wrote: When being wrong is a scum trait lol? That wasn't the point. I was pointing out that Onegu was factually incorrect in what he was saying. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12970 Posts
On March 31 2015 07:54 Toadesstern wrote: Basicly I'd say he's town by meta, has a lot of small stuff that doesn't fit together making me think he's mafia by content, and finally think he's town because of his early stance on the vigs. I'm most confident in the last part by a lot actually. I actually think he's scum on meta if we disregard the two huge posts he's made. I outlined the meta thing earlier. Town Damdred has pushed his scum suspects really strong and I really haven't felt that this game. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12970 Posts
On March 31 2015 07:54 Onegu wrote: He has LS and palmar pegged but never really pushed them He had Palmar as town in his first big analysis post. He did call for an orb on Palmar on N2 though but how much influence would that really have is the question. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12970 Posts
On March 31 2015 07:56 Toadesstern wrote: but he's been posting really confidently in general this game. His posts are downright cocky Hmmmmmmmmm You may actually be right on that. When I went over his posts I mostly looked if he was pushing for things, but I can see the confidence, not all the time though. | ||
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