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On March 26 2015 04:48 Damdred wrote:
It makes me sad Eden you have dropped me from no lynch to probably not lynch.
Slam feels town to me, Oneg play doesn't make total sense as scum as I said before.
Why isn't breshke in your list?
THAT'S WHO I FORGOT LOL
god it was driving me NUTS trying to figure that out
he's in probs not lynch
and don't feel bad damd. literally everyone that isn't me or role-confirmed-town is out of definitely not lynch. like i said it's about making the POE more accurate
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On March 26 2015 04:49 Damdred wrote:
Kinda bothers me Palmar left breshke out for so long and didn't interact with him. He (breshke) called out LS early in the night when its obvious LS wants out of the game and bresh disappears off almost everyone radar now
i have him in probs not lynch b/c i felt like he was productive when he was around... i'm not married to that read though
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On March 26 2015 04:58 Damdred wrote:
Tell me how he was productive exactly and quote things
meh cba lol
make your case for why he's mafia. i'm open to it
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On March 26 2015 05:13 Alakaslam wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2015 04:26 Eden1892 wrote:On March 26 2015 02:58 Alakaslam wrote:On March 26 2015 02:39 Trfel wrote:
It is strange that Alalaslam calls Eden scum for trying to figure out his alignment, but calls Vivax scum for wanting to lynch him today, which is his request. NEITHER OF EDEN OR VIVAX ARE ACTUALLY TRYING YOU FOOL. They are simply taunting me and changing what I say. They refuse to read what I have actually said and are taking advantage of my being so behind on the game by refusing to answer anything I ask. I'm not taunting you. You literally have only asked me so far what I think of you calling me scum. It's ridiculous because I'm obviously town, it proves nothing about the game because you're either inattentive or mafia or both which I already knew. On March 26 2015 03:09 Alakaslam wrote:On March 26 2015 02:36 Eden1892 wrote:
so Slam. I ask again. you only contended that my summary was wrong in that your martyrdom was limited.
regardless based on your body of work it's pretty much impossible for me to believe you're town.
how am I supposed to change my mind about you? what am I supposed to be seeing? help me help you You are supposed to be seeing frustration and inability to aid, you should see a logic that is trying to aid town from a position of literally no information. You should see me GIVING A FUCK BECAUSE AS SCUM I WOULDNT. I WOULD JUST LOL AT YOU AND GO FOR YOUR nk EARLIER. You should see me popping in so rarely and only saying things like "page 302, boss 302" and my opinion on things here and there. You should have fucking lynches me when I asked for it, not always as the pocket lynch at the end until scum finds they need an ML NOW this is why you are so scum in my eyes. I can see a scum strategy and you are following it better than the town strategy and you refuse to inform me. THIS IS WHAT YOU SHOUKD SEE HILY SHIT NO JNFORMATION LIKE WTF I COULD ASK MY SCUMTEAM TO KEEP ME UPDATED VERSUS ROLLING OVER USELESS LIKE THIS. I COULD AT LEAST ACT LIKE I WAS IP ON THE THREAD I don't want to fucking lynch you if I don't have to. Holy shit. I don't know what part of that isn't clear since I've repeatedly said "you are not helping me by trying to get me to lynch you." I have you in my POE pile. You know what that means? I have other people I don't want to lynch, I don't know what you are and I'm trying to narrow the game down to where I can lynch you regardless of your alignment and still win. Getting yourself lynched literally changes nothing about the game. Doing things that I can townread you off of OTOH will allow me to move you out of the POE list and (if you're town) get me that much closer to winning. Refuse to inform you about what? The 300 pages you're behind on? Ain't nobody got time to go over everything. What do you want to know? The answers to the questions I was asking. You aren't a blue claim, so I don't see how you can be confirmed town. I see way too much "confirmed town" being thrown about this game, you aren't just PoE me as you have been snidely coloring me red since the start of the game.
...which questions...????? the only question you asked me is what i think of you calling me scum
which is that i don't give a fuck
and "snidely"? what?
i've been coloring you red since around d2 when you entered my poe pile
it's for the same things as i've said before
but i think the whole "i would ask my teammates for help" thing made sense
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On March 26 2015 05:40 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2015 05:32 Eden1892 wrote:On March 26 2015 05:13 Alakaslam wrote:On March 26 2015 04:26 Eden1892 wrote:On March 26 2015 02:58 Alakaslam wrote:On March 26 2015 02:39 Trfel wrote:
It is strange that Alalaslam calls Eden scum for trying to figure out his alignment, but calls Vivax scum for wanting to lynch him today, which is his request. NEITHER OF EDEN OR VIVAX ARE ACTUALLY TRYING YOU FOOL. They are simply taunting me and changing what I say. They refuse to read what I have actually said and are taking advantage of my being so behind on the game by refusing to answer anything I ask. I'm not taunting you. You literally have only asked me so far what I think of you calling me scum. It's ridiculous because I'm obviously town, it proves nothing about the game because you're either inattentive or mafia or both which I already knew. On March 26 2015 03:09 Alakaslam wrote:On March 26 2015 02:36 Eden1892 wrote:
so Slam. I ask again. you only contended that my summary was wrong in that your martyrdom was limited.
regardless based on your body of work it's pretty much impossible for me to believe you're town.
how am I supposed to change my mind about you? what am I supposed to be seeing? help me help you You are supposed to be seeing frustration and inability to aid, you should see a logic that is trying to aid town from a position of literally no information. You should see me GIVING A FUCK BECAUSE AS SCUM I WOULDNT. I WOULD JUST LOL AT YOU AND GO FOR YOUR nk EARLIER. You should see me popping in so rarely and only saying things like "page 302, boss 302" and my opinion on things here and there. You should have fucking lynches me when I asked for it, not always as the pocket lynch at the end until scum finds they need an ML NOW this is why you are so scum in my eyes. I can see a scum strategy and you are following it better than the town strategy and you refuse to inform me. THIS IS WHAT YOU SHOUKD SEE HILY SHIT NO JNFORMATION LIKE WTF I COULD ASK MY SCUMTEAM TO KEEP ME UPDATED VERSUS ROLLING OVER USELESS LIKE THIS. I COULD AT LEAST ACT LIKE I WAS IP ON THE THREAD I don't want to fucking lynch you if I don't have to. Holy shit. I don't know what part of that isn't clear since I've repeatedly said "you are not helping me by trying to get me to lynch you." I have you in my POE pile. You know what that means? I have other people I don't want to lynch, I don't know what you are and I'm trying to narrow the game down to where I can lynch you regardless of your alignment and still win. Getting yourself lynched literally changes nothing about the game. Doing things that I can townread you off of OTOH will allow me to move you out of the POE list and (if you're town) get me that much closer to winning. Refuse to inform you about what? The 300 pages you're behind on? Ain't nobody got time to go over everything. What do you want to know? The answers to the questions I was asking. You aren't a blue claim, so I don't see how you can be confirmed town. I see way too much "confirmed town" being thrown about this game, you aren't just PoE me as you have been snidely coloring me red since the start of the game. ...which questions...????? the only question you asked me is what i think of you calling me scum which is that i don't give a fuck and "snidely"? what? i've been coloring you red since around d2 when you entered my poe pile it's for the same things as i've said before but i think the whole "i would ask my teammates for help" thing made sense Lol how? Scum tends to overestimate town cred and is usually quite willing to bus. When they get Palmar on their team his first lines in the qt will be "Ok guys, let's ahrd defend each other" unless he thinks the game is lost form the start. I can provide examples from Titanic where I was scum with him. Point being: It's hard to not be right when you're scum. It's much more attractive to try nd be in a spot where you seem to be right most of the time. Alakaslam for me is excempt from this reasoning as the time I witnessed his scum play (on an OMGUS game where he mislynched me) he would simply pile up on mislynches. He doesn't really give a fuck this game unless people call him scum, he went apeshit when HF called him scum and he goes apeshit when we want to lynch him, otherwise not much to see here. Literally no logical reason to have him in this game.
slam, were he lynched right now, would be lynched for not doing anything to find mafia
that's not something you get much in the way of cred for
he just seems so... out of it. like he really thinks scum is in this incredible position right now when we have 4 role-confirmed-towns in a game of 13 people and 3 mafia. and he's just striking out at random people like me instead of trying to pile on ml's. i feel like he would be a little more aware of the game state if he were mafia since he'd have 2 more people he could bother for advice / information
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Why doesn't anybody want to lynch Fecalfeast?
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On March 26 2015 07:14 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2015 07:05 Eden1892 wrote:
Why doesn't anybody want to lynch Fecalfeast? Same for Slam? People still sitting on onegu for the most part. Did you decide to TR slam? I'm 100 % sure you would regret it at lylo to leave him alive, whereas you could lynch FF without batting an eyelid. Keep it rational without pretendin to think you can read slam either way. The road to victory is paved with incognito-free slabs.
For now. Maybe I would regret it, but I'll frankly be shocked if I made it to LYLO to make that decision. We've got 3 ml's to give so even if both vigs get shot before me and we whiff on all 3 lynches, it won't be my call.
For now I think Slam has a lower probability of flipping scum than Fecalfeast. That's all I care about right now.
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Vivax, what is more rational about lynching someone I think is town but can't read over someone I think is mafia and can read? (Presuming I can't read Slam)
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On March 26 2015 07:29 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2015 07:27 Eden1892 wrote:On March 26 2015 07:14 Vivax wrote:On March 26 2015 07:05 Eden1892 wrote:
Why doesn't anybody want to lynch Fecalfeast? Same for Slam? People still sitting on onegu for the most part. Did you decide to TR slam? I'm 100 % sure you would regret it at lylo to leave him alive, whereas you could lynch FF without batting an eyelid. Keep it rational without pretendin to think you can read slam either way. The road to victory is paved with incognito-free slabs. For now. Maybe I would regret it, but I'll frankly be shocked if I made it to LYLO to make that decision. We've got 3 ml's to give so even if both vigs get shot before me and we whiff on all 3 lynches, it won't be my call. For now I think Slam has a lower probability of flipping scum than Fecalfeast. That's all I care about right now. According to your former reasoning they have equal chance. Why has Slam lower prob now?
Fecalfeast's claim to town status is making a solid case on mafia that he promptly drops and never revisits.
Slam's claim to town status is an unawareness of the game state that seems virtually impossible to reconcile with a mafia mindset.
I'm far more convinced by the latter rn
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On March 26 2015 07:34 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2015 07:30 Eden1892 wrote:
Vivax, what is more rational about lynching someone I think is town but can't read over someone I think is mafia and can read? (Presuming I can't read Slam) If you think you can't read him you can't think he's town? At the very least you should assume that you aren't able to think he is either?
Even if I can't read him and drop my town read that's null. Which is still irrational to lynch over scum
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This is so confusing Vivax. Do you not think FF is mafia? The core idea here was yours for goodness' sake. But now that I'm actually down to pursue it you're wanting to lynch someone because they're hard to read and you don't want them in LYLO? Why not just avoid ever getting to LYLO by lynching mafia?
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On March 26 2015 07:38 Vivax wrote:
Objectively the other possible reason is that they didn't know who else to RB anyway?
This is kinda where I am now. Admittedly I forgot about the Rb....
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On March 26 2015 07:42 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2015 07:38 Eden1892 wrote:
This is so confusing Vivax. Do you not think FF is mafia? The core idea here was yours for goodness' sake. But now that I'm actually down to pursue it you're wanting to lynch someone because they're hard to read and you don't want them in LYLO? Why not just avoid ever getting to LYLO by lynching mafia? I do think FF is mafia but my current PoE also says Slam is mafia and I want to lynch Slam first cause I wanted to get rid of him N1 and to get rid of this fucking discussion that makes me starkraving mad whenever I want to lynch players like him. The grush57's, Chezinus and Slams of this world. I want a troll genocide on this forum so I can win games by reading people who allow themselves to be read, instead of keeping them around as an asset to mafia.
Dang tell me how you really feel. Lol
I'm just not sold on it yet, sorry. I'll think on it but I believe FF is the wiser choice.
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If it makes you feel better we can still hit Slam with the orb
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On March 26 2015 07:54 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2015 07:45 Eden1892 wrote:
If it makes you feel better we can still hit Slam with the orb I could say the same about FF. There is really no rational basis for you to spare slam on this day except your ego, which is the ego that makes policy lynches impossible in the games in which they are really needed. It's not even that much of a policy lynch for me. I can think of some reasons for slam being scum I already have mentioned. But it's in the nature of the troll to be able to hide himself behind the argument that his lynch is "just a policy lynch", diffaming everyone pushing for him. They are a massive annoyance to this game and people will invent all sort of stupid reasons to let them live until they reach the point where ONE lynch decides the outcome of the game, and mafia as well as town can go like "Well up until this point I've TR'd everyone else so let's lynch this guy nobody ever bothered with cause I've run out of options". Get rid of Slam now and you will at the very least know where everybody really stands if we ever reach a lylo situation. Cause town will have to find scum in their townreads and scum will have to make up scumreads from their townreads.
What in gods name does my ego have to do with wanting to use our remaining orb to deal with a supposedly unreadable player and wanting to lynch someone I actually think is mafia?
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On March 26 2015 08:15 Damdred wrote:
btw I think its really depressing and stupid you guys are basically discussing POLICY lynching people after we killed two mafia instead of diving into their filters and looking for connections or weird interacitons between them.
Everyone really needs to read breshke filter and stop being lazy and give opinions, instead of talking abou tpolicy lynching slam/oneg at this point.
Can you summarize your findings on it Damdred? I'm not filter diving Breshke til I'm off work lol
What do you think of my argument on Fecalfeast?
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And I'm talking about NOT plunching... I want to orb Slam. That seems like the best use since it can cop check him
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On March 26 2015 08:43 Fecalfeast wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2015 08:38 Vivax wrote:On March 26 2015 08:37 Fecalfeast wrote:On March 26 2015 08:36 Vivax wrote:On March 26 2015 08:31 Fecalfeast wrote:
Well, eden could start figuring out what went wrong in his analysis of me before I flip town so that there's more to work with afterward.
Actually it'd be really cool if I could help with that! Who would be your top suspects if I flipped town eden?
I looked at breshke. I want to call him scum for not hardly interacting with LS or palmar, as well as for using the nightkill wifom to implicate me. I don't want to call him scum because he had palmar as scummy and because his tone feels more like a town who is busy to me. Before I flip town bsbsbs If I flipped town bsbsbs Why do you base all your premises on your flip when the votecount suggests something else is going to happen? Where's the confidence? I'm talking to eden, thanks And I'm lynching you. Enjoy your conversation. ##Unvote
##Vote FecalFeast Oh ok, in that case who would be your most likely suspect in the event I flipped town? This way I can both be useful to town and try to prove my innocence at the same time!
The same pool of suspects that would be likeliest to flip scum besides you.
What other answer was I supposed to give?
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Artanis who you wanna lynch
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Move the fuck over Vivax, I got the REAL SCIENCE in this bitch.
Posting Rate Analysis: An Advanced Look
I've talked about this before, but never actually bothered to try to do this analysis for an actual game. See, I think the way a lot of people use filter lengths to analyze players is too simplistic. It's lazy, frankly. They just quote a number from a game, guesstimate whether it's relatively active or inactive given game size, and then say "oh well his filter is X pgs long so he's <alignment>." Naw bitches we steppin this game up.
I've created a formula to generate values for posting rates that correct for the sizes of games and the duration of that player's life in the game. Observe:
PostRt_This_Game = Filter_Length (pgs) / Player_Count (players) / Time_Alive (days) * 1000
PostRt_Alignment = AVG(PostRt_1, PostRt_2, ...)
So for example, if I'm playing in a 20 person game, my filter length is 20 pages and I die n1, my rating will be 1000 and I'll promptly commit seppuku because seriously that's absurd even for me. (20 / 20 / 1 * 1000 = 1 / 1 * 1000 = 1 * 1000 = 1000)
The determinations per alignment is just taking the average of the value for each game registered for each alignment. I used the database and in order to get a more accurate sampling, I defaulted to using games from only 2015. Where I didn't feel I had enough games to do it (i.e. had 1-2 games), I went as far back as I could to find enough samples to run it.
I went ahead and did the calculations for 3 of the 4 players I would lynch today. (Left out FF because he only had like 1-2 games in the database as mafia.)
Breshke
postrt_this_game: 0.8721
postrt_town: 5.0262
postrt_scum: 3.4863
Superbia
postrt_this_game: 2.3256
postrt_town: 8.5083
postrt_scum: 3.8854
ritoky
postrt_this_game: 4.7438
postrt_town: 3.7115
postrt_scum: 1.9685
So what did we find?
- Breshke's posting rate is too damn low. Windows Calculator needed to use 10^-x syntax to display the value before I multiplied by 1000. My inclination is to say that this is indicative of mafia, but it's so far below his range as either alignment that it's tough to say.
- Superbia's posting rate is pretty in-line with his scum game and substantially lower than his town game. Additionally, his posting rate follows a pretty normal scum pattern, where it's high to start but then drops off as the game goes on. I think this is pretty decent reason to believe he's mafia factoring in the other evidence against him.
- ritoky's posting rate is actually pretty high! I adjusted the formula to only factor in players, pages and days since he jumped in. Despite replacing in he is actually pretty far ahead of his town pace and has left his scum pace in the dust. Some of the heightened activity can be attributed to in-game circumstances (namely, replacing into a slot almost universally scumread at the time), but unless we're to believe that accounts for a 250% increase in his posting rate, we would still find that his adjusted rate would be closer to his town meta than his mafia meta. He's earned a day as long as he continues to be involved and try to find mafia.
Unfortunately I couldn't do FF's, since he has one valid scum game (the 4-hr mini is probably too different to be factored here). But I think this is a decent start. Superbia likely mafia, ritoky likely town, Breshke maybe mafia but really his inactivity is too extreme to know what to do with it.
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EPT
