Hopefully later tonight I will get a chance to go through and see if my suspicions about ritoky are correct.

Right now, I'm thinking of ritoky or Breshke being top lynches for tomorrow. I think we still have one more mislynch, is this correct?

Trfel

7015 Posts

March 29 2015 23:17 GMT

#8066

On March 30 2015 08:13 Vivax wrote:

Show nested quote +

Yeah but tone wise I think ritoky is town even though I found his preference of Onegu over damdred strange. Breshke on the other hand...

Actually there is need to panic as I think we're gonna lose this game. Too many needless claims at the beginning of the game.

I don't think this game has ever been very town favored.

But, if we do lose, we absolutely cannot blame it on the power roles. Power roles aren't necessary to win. I know that if we lose, a huge portion of the blame goes to me for my miserable play (aka not playing) this past day. And that led to the mislynch of Superbia.

Town loses due to the play of people in the game, I can't blame power roles at all.

Trfel

7015 Posts

March 30 2015 15:50 GMT

#8121

Artanis, I agree with those townreads. I doubt I'd ever be willing to lynch sicklucker. Palmar was last on the "to lynch" list, I don't think that scum would normally kill him there.

Onegu, even if sicklucker himself didn't believe the mason claims, it's possible that the other mafia members did, and overruled sicklucker for the night kills.

Trfel

7015 Posts

March 30 2015 19:56 GMT

#8145

I need to head out now.

I'll take a very close look at ritoky and Breshke tomorrow, if I am still alive. I should have a bunch more time to work with over the next few days.

Trfel

7015 Posts

March 30 2015 20:04 GMT

#8152

On March 31 2015 04:59 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Actually it's not all that cunning. The idea is pretty simple; Everyone reads up on Damdred's filter, maybe some meta as well, makes their own opinion, then posts when they're ready. Once we're all ready we post it at the same time so we have a bunch of original thoughts, then discuss it.

I'd consider waiting till EoN but only having 20 minutes to discuss could be a problem, idk.

Sorry, I'll be out until after End of Day.

I'll definitely read what you guys come up with, though.

Trfel

7015 Posts

March 30 2015 23:02 GMT

#8200

Trfel

7015 Posts

March 30 2015 23:09 GMT

#8211

I'm the vet.

Do I now achieve completely unlynchable status?

Trfel

7015 Posts

March 30 2015 23:10 GMT

#8212

Oh, and there was no orb last night. It dissipates once the game drops to 11 players, and we had 11 players last night.

Trfel

7015 Posts

March 30 2015 23:12 GMT

#8215

On March 09 2015 12:18 Half the Sky wrote:
The orb dissipates when the game reaches 11 players or when the orb is used 4 times in the game, whichever should come first.

Trfel

7015 Posts

March 30 2015 23:13 GMT

#8218

LOL XD

Trfel

7015 Posts

March 30 2015 23:51 GMT

#8237

Onegu's decision to keep quiet about the orb says nothing about his alignment. As does his statement that he used the orb.

Carry on.

Trfel

7015 Posts

March 31 2015 00:22 GMT

#8245

On March 31 2015 09:04 Fecalfeast wrote:

Show nested quote +

Can you comment on this part? Specifically about whether it is alignment indicative or not.

It seems that Onegu was hoping to catch the mafia for claiming a roleblock on the Night 4 orb usage. When he realized that there was no orb for Night 4, he claimed.

There was no real reason to be quiet about it. Scum would never fake the orb. Furthermore, scum wouldn't fake the orb with the wrong ability, they would use the orb and then say which ability they got (maybe fake the target and/or the result).

Therefore, there is no real benefit for mafia!Onegu to claim orb in this situation. It's not alignment indicative.

It also doesn't say much about ritoky. At the time, I believe ritoky was a widely accepted orb target. With only one mafia KP, and three mafia members, it's likely that if ritoky is scum, he wouldn't be the one carrying the KP.

Trfel

7015 Posts

March 31 2015 00:25 GMT

#8247

On March 31 2015 09:24 Vivax wrote:
The reason we might lose this game is cause 50 % of the talk is about all this role related mechanic stuff instead of the oldschool simple reasons for why bresh is mafia.

Says the person who already blamed our power roles for the loss.

Sorry, I couldn't help it

Trfel

7015 Posts

March 31 2015 01:07 GMT

#8254

I just realized. Onegu's not saying anything about the orb is actually slightly towny.

If scum gets the orb, they have two possibilities.

Say nothing
Target a teammate (one who isn't carrying KP) and claim roleblock or rolecheck (obviously, claim a vanilla role check)

So, Onegu's play doesn't fit with either of those possibilities. Therefore, I conclude that it is a slightly towny thing to do.

Trfel

7015 Posts

March 31 2015 16:08 GMT

#8295

I'll be putting in some effort today. But I have an exam tomorrow morning, so my effort might come in late in the day (but not too late, as I'll be out for the three hours preceding EOD....). I know, I have so much free time to spend on this game!

I still think that ritoky could be a very good lynch today. I hope to get through his and raynpelikoneet's filters.

Trfel

7015 Posts

April 01 2015 16:51 GMT

#8329

Voting Breshke for now. As a placeholder, I'd rather not get modkilled on Day 5.

I need to go get lunch, then I'll take a look at this.

Trfel

7015 Posts

April 01 2015 19:32 GMT

#8339

Just lynch Breshke. I'm only on page 1 of his filter, and it's looking pretty scummy already.

Trfel

7015 Posts

April 01 2015 20:00 GMT

#8342

Notes on Breshke

Early on, Breshke's comments are unsure and sometimes he admits they are unimportant
+ Show Spoiler +
First post says that Eden seems towny, and that makes rsoultin a little towny (Eden's townread on rsoultin), but says this isn't very important
Says he really likes two of Alakaslam's posts, and then says that he can't read Alakaslam
Asks Eden about the Alakaslam/Holyflare argument
Seems more interested in asking questions than stating his own opinions
Agrees that Toadesstern's early case on Palmar does have merit (does he push this later?)
Although he liked Alakaslam's posts about why sicklucker's play isn't alignment indicative, he puts sicklucker at top scumread and votes for him. This happens while the Day 1 wagons are mostly equal.
Breshke asks a question to Artanis about his townread on Alakaslam, but Breshke already said he liked two of Alakaslam's posts and also said that he didn't know how to read Alakaslam
On March 20 2015 14:37 Breshke wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 20 2015 14:24 sicklucker wrote:
Breske why are you voting me after reading me right your pretty terrible have you learned nothing... Im playing dota right now but im not letting you gobbers lose another game for town by killing me

Am i terrible or mafia?

Also I still don't really understand how to read LS. I agree with rso? that his list posts thought dump kinda thing is a town tell for him so wouldn't lynch him today but I wouldn't call him town
Expresses willingness to lynch sicklucker and LightningStrike,but always pushes sicklucker and not LightningStrike
After LightningStrike was tracked with the orb, Breshke decides to post reasons why he is scum

I stopped taking notes after a few pages. His filter improves as it goes, but I don't think it makes up for the first few pages. Breshke is generally non-committal and dances around the flipped scum. Therefore, I am confident that Breshke is scum.

I will be gone until after End of Day, though I might be able to get back shortly before it. If Breshke isn't lynched today, there had better be really good reasons why.

Trfel

7015 Posts

April 01 2015 22:54 GMT

#8481

I'm here.

I can't read the last so many pages in time.

Anything I need to know?

Trfel

7015 Posts

April 01 2015 22:56 GMT

#8489

I'd rather lynch Breshke over Fecalfeast.