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I'm going to put down some logic of where I'm at with my head, and then I'm going to continue my Pillars of Eternity play through. I'm also not sure how much time I'll have tomorrow, as I'm going to a party in the evening. Hopefully I can try to prevent my miss-lynch again, and hopefully the town-reads actually stick this time.
So, let's start off with the general direction of the game, and how the game has progressed from yesterday.
Let's start off with the assumption that I'm town. The following wagon was on me at the wagon's summit:
On March 27 2015 06:10 Blazinghand wrote:
Superbia (8): Artanis[Xp], Eden1892, FecalFeast, Alakaslam, ritoky, Damdred, Toadesstern, Trfel
Of these, FF and Slam (who flipped town) stand out. FF liked the case I put on Artanis, but seemed fine with sheeping Artanis when he put his case on me. This seems very odd to me, but in a way that is regardless of FF's alignment. I literally just don't know what he is doing. That being said, I also see FF's recent lynch outlook post as coming from a town perspective. His view on me makes sense from what I recall from our interactions. That being said:
FF, kindly explain your read on me. Why did you think I was scum or a PR? What gave it away? You said earlier on that your read on me involves calling me mafia, how did that read progress?
Moving on, I kind of like damdred in a weird WIFOMy way. He called me out for giving a shit defense in a sort of BM way. I don't think scum does this, tbh. I don't know damdred very well, but I don't think scum shits on a townie about to get miss-lynched like that. Furthermore, his poke sparked me, and allowed me to give the defense to prevent the miss-lynch (though we still miss-lynched). He was also one of the first to rescind off the wagon (iirc). He might be laughing in his scum QT right now, but he's getting a town read for now.
Ritoky, I don't even know where he's at, to be honest. His opinion seems uninformed, and I don't think a town would be comfortable lynching someone who they have been unable to form a proper opinion about. Moreover, the rayn slot seems incredibly fishy. I scum-read rayn before the claim (iirc), and I don't understand the rescind off the PR, nor why scum seemingly did not put an RB or a KP on him (more on this later). I can see why rayn would fake claim in that scenario as town, as he had been tired of people not listening to him in previous games, and he may be uninterested in defending himself, but it's so bad as town, because it can bait out a CC. Furthermore, I don't think he used his position of temporary confirmed town to push anything (again, iirc). The fact that this fake-claim has (seemingly, and iirc, I haven't actually read the majority of d2, tbh) not been fully explored yet is alarming to say the least.
I think trfel is town for probably ever. I think Artanis & toad are town for now as well. I'm definitely not touching them today, but maybe Artanis in Final 3. Toad looks really, really good for his push on Palmar d1, the CC, and the fact that it looks like his KP is the KP that went through d2. Vivax goes on this list too for now, but I have no idea what I'm going to think if I encounter him in final 3.
Actually almost missed Breshke when studying the wagon. Honestly, I think Breshke is somewhat likely scum? I hate saying this. =/ He has hard defended me at multiple times in the game (and I have agreed), but I think the defense may be a little TMI. The fact is, a lot of town has read me as scummy for most of the game, and I have no idea why he has been comfortable defending me. Also, I have noticed that he did not hard defend me during the wagon on me, while I have a feeling he was around regardless.
This post is the most scummy for me:
On March 27 2015 07:09 Breshke wrote:
he argument between artanis and superbia made superbia look worse because i understood what artanis was saying whereas I had no idea wtf superbia was trying to say/do. That being said superbia should still not be lynched today.
Im down for lynching onegu or slam maybe FF but not theres a reason id rather not explain why that is bad this phase.
The people who say slam could be mafia but we shouldnt lynch him and just sort him out with the orb arn't really thinking it through because the orb has a 50% chance to do nothing if slam knows he is going to be orbed and you can literally say the same thing about anyone else you push on.
##Vote Onegu
I have no idea why he is still comfortable town-reading me while still saying that.
Finally, Onegu. I actually sort of like Onegu? I kinda likes how he approaches the lynch in this post:
On March 28 2015 22:53 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On March 28 2015 20:25 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Ctrl-F Damdred in Ritoky's filter, 90 results.
Ctrl-F Onegu, 46 results.
Ctrl-F Breshke, 28 results.
Ctrl-F Superbia, 22 results.
Ctrl-F Fecal, 22 results.
Ritoky seems much more concerned with going after Damdred than finding out who's mafia in the PoE group, which COULD be town but if I'm right it also really serves a mafia agenda. I'm fine with lynching him today. Also ok with Superbia. Out of these two id more prefer superbia over ritoky. The wagons went off of him onto two town wagons. Plus I had my Rayn soul read and it would really devistate me if this was the first time I was wrong.
Like if he's town it really does not mean much for him to look at votes, as it doesn't matter for scum what they vote, while normally you would look at who voted. I was even going to call him out for this, but it makes sense for town!Onegu to look at it like this.
I also want to discuss the N1 actions a bit more.
We have these claims before N1:
Vivax - KP on ???
Toad - KP on ???
Rayn - Track on ???
We have these claims post N1:
Vivax - KP on Slam (scum could've seen this coming), Roleblocked.
Toad - KP on VE (scum could've seen this coming, but less so than the KP on slam).
Rayn - Rescind his tracker claim.
RSO - Jail on Onegu.
Now. The interesting thing is that Rayn never got roleblocked, while he and Palmar did have sort of an encounter in the later stage of d1 (though rayn showed no interest in wanting to lynch palmar, afaik). This while Palmar is mafia (though goon). Now, unless I'm completely wrong, there was a decent chance that Palmar would be in Rayn's sights if rayn was an actual tracker. I don't know this, but Palmar may have suspected this. Furthermore, there was a decent chance that Palmar was going to carry the KP through the night as goon (you don't really want mafia PRs to carry it, especially due to tracker), so why not RB rayn? Like this is very speculative, especially looking back, but ask yourself this: why did scum not roleblock rayn? Who is a much higher risk target than a (what I'm assuming is) a town vigi who is willing to follow HF and when the targets are two town (now confirmed). This world only makes sense if Vivax is actually mafia, and scum were looking to confirm Vivax by foregoing the roleblock and claiming it on Vivax OR if Onegu was carrying the KP that was going on rayn. This is still rather speculative, but I think this is a good reason to lynch Ritoky (ex-rayn) today.
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On March 29 2015 10:09 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On March 29 2015 10:06 Superbia wrote:
I think trfel is town for probably ever. I think Artanis & toad are town for now as well. I'm definitely not touching them today, but maybe Artanis in Final 3. What changed?
Honestly, it's kind of hard to explain. I really liked a scum team with you on it, and from yesterday, it made sense. But looking back, it just seems like there has been (in most townie's opinion) a good reason to read me scum, though I still vehemently disagree with it. You did manage to put down your thoughts in a good case, and your actions just read like it would probably come from a townie perspective. Honestly, I feel like closely evaluating you again at this point in time is just a tremendous waste of time because:
1. I will never be able to lead a lynch (let alone on you) and
2. If you flip town I can never avoid the counter lynch followed by losing the game. I'm also way too afraid of what this will do to my (albeit limited) reputation if this happens. x:
Like you've been incredibly active and it looks like you're actually trying to solve the game lately. I did not feel this way yesterday.
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I need to go to sleep soon. Ritoky, from your perspective, if you're town, Rayn fakeclaiming Tracker and not getting RBed (seemingly) nor getting put KP on should influence your reads. From your perspective, a confirmed town fake claimed a cop role and did not get answered whatsoever. In fact, they chose to roleblock a Vigi. Why are you not questioning this vigi?
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On March 29 2015 10:50 ritoky wrote:Show nested quote +On March 29 2015 10:42 Superbia wrote:
I need to go to sleep soon. Ritoky, from your perspective, if you're town, Rayn fakeclaiming Tracker and not getting RBed (seemingly) nor getting put KP on should influence your reads. From your perspective, a confirmed town fake claimed a cop role and did not get answered whatsoever. In fact, they chose to roleblock a Vigi. Why are you not questioning this vigi? no idea what you're talking about. didn't read any of it. and why should my predecessor's retarded play influence my reads? he did a bunch of stupid shit and ppl wanted to lynch him. only thing that informs my opinion is my role pm and reads.
1. Rayn claims tracker at EoD1, no CCs.
2. Vivax claims Vigi at EoD1, toad CCs.
[NIGHT]
3. Vigi targets are discussed. Slam is brought up. VE is half brought up. Both are town.
[NIGHT RESOLVES, and 2 KP is revealed]
4. Toads KP (seemingly) goes through on VE.
5. Vivax claims to be RBed, as his KP did not go through on slam.
6. RSO claims jailkeep on Onegu. <- suspected KP reduction.
Now, you have to ask yourself: why did scum not do anything about rayn who claimed tracker? A number of options:
1. Onegu is scum, and was carrying KP on rayn. The jailkeeper action from RSO prevented him from delivering KP.
2. Vivax is scum, and it was in scum's favor to forego the roleblock so they could explain the lack of KP.
3. Scum had a god-read on rayn, and were confident enough to let an un-cced tracker go unchecked into the night.
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On March 29 2015 10:52 Fecalfeast wrote:saw my acronym bolded so I will respond to this before I read the post Show nested quote +FF, kindly explain your read on me. Why did you think I was scum or a PR? What gave it away? You said earlier on that your read on me involves calling me mafia, how did that read progress? Part 1: superbia doesn't ping me out early on, this leads me to lean mafia on him until I converse with him Part 2: After initiating banter about superbia being mafia, superbia acted more defensively than I feel was necessary. Part 3: Superbia disappears for a while in the midgame Part 4: after being on the poe list for a while superbia finally starts doing real stuff That's pretty much it
I need to do shit because the game is going to shit and miss-lynching me basically loses you guys the game. Honestly, if I ever get lynched at any point during the game I think town loses the game. I don't have much faith in you guys solving the game post-flip, especially given how many people are scum-reading me and are willing to lynch me. My town-flip is going to give no info. Like if it was up to me I'd be playing Pillars all the way through, but I can't just abandon town in this position.
Your read on me sux. :D
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I don't have faith in PoE atm. I know I'm a miss. I think that there's very likely 1 between Ritoky and Onegu, but if you start with a miss you'll be down to lylo/mylo I think?
I also have a fever today so I'm going to sheep someone at EoD.
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Yeah. I think there's a possibility there is one in that list (likely Damdred then, maybe you). I don't want to lose to someone in that group just because I was unable to defend myself properly.
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On March 29 2015 23:21 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
But that's not what you said. You said town basically loses the game if we mislynch you. Now you're saying there's a POSSIBILITY that someone's scum in that list. These two are very different. Especially since you use that as your motivation for playing hard, one would imagine you'd actually have thought it over a bit.
I don't trust this town for shit to win the game. Do you blame me?
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I didn't. At that point I just defaulted to the thought process that there was 1 vigi and that both shooting each other solves it during the night. I later backed up HF's strategy after I started reading them both as town. From my filter my thought process should be pretty obvious. There's a distinct lack of direction between me start reading them both as town and HF's plan.
Also I don't believe I have myself to blame. I don't think I have done anything scummy. I don't really care as town what I look like, and I just put down my thoughts every now and then. This game I have been pinged out to death and people have just been riding the wagon. It's dumb and demotivating as fuck.
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No. Don't put this shit on me. I've had plenty of reasons as to why I was away during moments of the game, none of which anyone cares (or should care about). I have given my thoughts for today, and I have given good analysis. If you want to lynch me, fine. But if town loses this game, don't fucking dare to put it on me. Don't you fucking dare.
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It's also rather asinine, because I have been wagoned and pinged out throughout most of the game (from n2). Saying I only respond to pings is a disservice and a argument that contradicts itself as it is.
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This is so dumb. You already know I'm going to flip town and you know it.
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I'm going to leave my vote on Ritoky and you guys can do whatever during the night.
How in the world can you ever live in the world where everyone is willing to lynch me, then I give a defense from the fucking heart and everyone goes off me (i.e. reads me town) and then everyone still goes on me the next day. What a tremendous waste of time.
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On March 29 2015 23:47 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
If I knew you were going to flip town I would not be voting you. Obviously, I don't.
Then why is it on me? Take the blame if I flip town.
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Because inconsistent reads are a scum tell for me.
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Also this is a good reason why I was reading you scummy. There's a small amount of much scummier players who are able to have a better read on me than you.
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I'm going to give everyone a pro tip for everyone who attempts to read me:
I don't care about looking townie as town.
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Also I think today should be revolved about Ritoky and Onegu. But who cares. Let's lynch someone whom's flip is going to tell us nothing!
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Also, double RBer is unlikely as SL claimed having the Orb during N2. He would've been blocked.
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Just look at the logic I posted during the game after I flip. You probably won't, but at least I told you to.
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EPT
