*Note, I have decided not to color myself green or defend myself in this post as its a waste of time and it might be better for town just to lynch me and use some of my analysis after my alignment is clear hopefully to find scum.
Eden1892 (2): ritoky, Lightningstrike
justanothertownie (3): Koshi, raynpelikoneet, Eden1892
raynpelikoneet (4): prplhz, damdred, rsoultin, marvellosity
marvellosity (1): Palmar
Not Voting (2): justanothertownie, onegu
Currently raynpelikoneet is set to be lynched.
I actually think that this is the most telling vote count in the game or at least the events that lead to it. The push on JAT directly comes after this vote count (by Rayn)
Eden1892 (2): ritoky, lightningstrike
justanothertownie (1): Koshi
raynpelikoneet (4): prplhz, damdred, rsoultin, marvellosity
damdred (1): raynpelikoneet, Eden1892
marvellosity (1): Palmar
Not Voting (2): justanothertownie, onegu
Currently raynpelikoneet is set to be lynched.
Eden at this point has the greatest push (besides a stagnant rayn lynch that was still leading) to get lynched at this point. Myself, LS, Ritoky and a few others were putting direct pressure on Eden to do things or get lynched. Rayn right after this vote count walks in and basically tells everyone to shut up we aren't lynching Eden we are lynching JAT. Though earlier I said that its a possibility that Rayn is mafia for X reasons, as I go back and read around these lynches this push just seems way to genuine and why would you push off of Eden (unless you go super tin foil) and onto team mate JAT here?
Logically and objectively it doesn't make sense for mafia Rayn to come into the thread at this point to get the cred, it would be more benficial for JAT to bus Rayn or to bus team mate #3 than to come in so strong and directly steer the lynch off of Eden and onto JAT directly.
Unless we have all three mafia up for the lynch here, which is highly unlikely there is no reason for mafia Rayn not to hammer town Eden who is going batshit in the thread at points.
Eden1892 (2): ritoky, Lightningstrike
justanothertownie (3): Koshi, raynpelikoneet, Eden1892
raynpelikoneet (4): prplhz, damdred, rsoultin, marvellosity
marvellosity (1): Palmar
Not Voting (2): justanothertownie, onegu
Some of Rayns play looks meh to me but overall and this push that directly resulted in a mafia lynch I think he has to be town. Also its really possible scum thought he was VET and didn't want to shoot him and medic dodged anyway or Rsoultin had good reads.
I also think Eden has to be town in this situation, (on a offnote JAT hard townread him twice I believe and talked to him like he was confirmed town) he also isn't keeping his options open really and is chasing whatever he feels like. Filter size is bigger than I thought it would be also.
Like 99% sure that Eden has to be town here, rereading the day the pressure on JAT looks a lot better than I remembered it and might of been a bit to accommodating to the thread pressure which I thought was less then it actually was. Early game still looked pretty good to me especially trying to figure out Rsoultin early. EoD still looks a bit wonky to me and is tunneled d2 but I still think its a good shot at being town.
Eden1892 (2): ritoky, Lightningstrike
justanothertownie (3): Koshi, raynpelikoneet, Eden1892
raynpelikoneet (4): prplhz, damdred, rsoultin, marvellosity
marvellosity (1): Palmar
Not Voting (2): justanothertownie, onegu
Prplhz is interesting, Marv made an excellent point in his synopsis of why he is probably town. Also his pinging JAT out about his townreads I think is still really good. When hes been in the thread hes pushed his own ideas forward and yes it looks bad that he wasn't on JAT at eod Also he went through imperial which was a slog of a game to figure out if JAT town reads people early or not, I don't know if I see a scum Prplhz doing this. And there are several posts in his filter I really like (such as the jat posts trying to make sense of the night kill digging through Rsoultins filter after he was dead to figure out his reads). I'm pretty confident that he is town.
Eden1892 (2): ritoky, Lightningstrike
justanothertownie (3): Koshi, raynpelikoneet, Eden1892
raynpelikoneet (4): prplhz, damdred, rsoultin, marvellosity
marvellosity (1): Palmar
Not Voting (2): justanothertownie, onegu
That leaves me with two suspects inside of Palmar, Marvellosity, Onegu and Ritoky.
There are several reasons meta wise or game wise for me to town read each of these people which makes this into a super hard game.
Firstly Palmar has been really trolly this game, and while this isn't exactly alignment indicative the few times that I've seen Palmar as scum he hasn't really been trolly or not making sense in the game he is generally more serious and more apt to lead or try to lead the town into a lynch/mislynch that would directly benefit himself or the scum team. I can neither see him as scum be this trolly, shoot Rsoultin over Marv/Rayn/Koshi at this point in time. He does have negatives against him, hes not really attempting to solve the game past a point, but there were a couple of posts where I saw a town Palmar trying to figure out Marvs alignment during the early parts of the day phase and he was ok with Marv and Prp. Which made me pretty happy at that point with him as well. Also as pointed out with Eden, JAT town read Palmar twice once for a bad reason and once for no explanation at all. I'm sort of happy with putting Palmar as town in this scenario at this point.
Eden1892 (2): ritoky, Lightningstrike
justanothertownie (3): Koshi, raynpelikoneet, Eden1892
raynpelikoneet (4): prplhz, damdred, rsoultin, marvellosity
marvellosity (1): Palmar
Not Voting (2): justanothertownie, onegu
Which leaves me with Marvellosity, Ritoky and Onegu
Marvellosity is really likely to be town in this scenario. While his night was pretty bad to me I think it actually fits his town game, he really reacts badly as town to being called scum as seen in horns and totally acts different than when he is scum In that regard. I remember when 've been on a team with him if hes called scum especially by someone like Palmar he usually dies a little and doesn't really come back from it.
In imperial marv had to be poked and proded by most of the scum team to do things after he was called scum and disappeared for many hours inbetween as he just wasn't motivated to do things. Here he decided just to stay in the thread and fight it out. Which was really towny for Marv.
His read on Prp is really good in my mind really well reasoned and thought out. His reasoning d1 on Rayn and that indecision on who to vote for looked pretty towny to me as well, plus that filter size going into d2 and into d2 while its not impossible for scum marv to do I think... it is improbable that Marv could go at a greater pace than Imperial in a game a 1/3 of the size at this point.
After writing all of this out I am a bit concerned in the back of my mind that Marv is playing the game of the century for him in tin foil land, but I logically can't see this happening. hes going to more than likely be alive for most if not all of the game just because of the amount of confirmed people we have in Koshi+LS and Rayn obviously. This does not make him scum necessarily do not panic if Marv is alive d4 with LS dying and Rayn/Koshi or someone in that order dying.
Eden1892 (2): ritoky, Lightningstrike
justanothertownie (3): Koshi, raynpelikoneet, Eden1892
raynpelikoneet (4): prplhz, damdred, rsoultin, marvellosity
marvellosity (1): Palmar
Not Voting (2): justanothertownie, onegu
This leaves me in a world where Onegu and ritoky are the mafia in this game. And this doesn't really sit that well with me in this game and i'm not sure why. Generally I would be enthused that I have basically solved the game from my perspective but this is just hard for me to swallow. Logically and looking at the game and reasoning it makes the most sense.
Also both of them make sense with a Rsoultin shot. We might not be giving enough credit to Rsoultins reads at this point in time,
+ Show Spoiler +On March 12 2015 19:57 rsoultin wrote:
mrrrr
too many townyish people this game big problem lol
-sits on marv's head and peers down at him-
you could be scum you know...kinda funny you seem to think that's an impossible thought to have. like i wouldn't be considering it if most of the player base didn't look town, but still
koshi+rayn+LS definite townies hi townies ^^ (tinfoil hat could i suppose have rayn scum ccing jat scum but that's a super fucking weird play lol and if they did that i don't mind losing to it ><)
prp...i like for town on filter dive. only reservation is despite his contribution to scumreading jat he stayed on rayn, but considering his reaction to rayn's LS push and his involvement in the thread otherwise, it adds up
eden anger too real...like i feel he'd hard town me as either alignment unless i started looking like a shitbag and other potential mislynches are actually harder to get lynched than me, but his paroxysms of fury/frustration are not how i remember him behaving when we caught him as scum before
marv...liked where his head was at. we clicked early. he did not want to lynch jat and only came around at the end...could mean a tunnel, we all do it, and i'm still inclined to say he's town. i even agree he's more likely to try to get cred out of that lynch especially considering jat goon...however. gotta love howevers xP this whole the main reason to townread him is he would have tried to get credit is weaksauce and his response to koshi read overly defensive to me. so he dropped to a light read. naughty marv
ritoky...if the only reason i can possibly town you is cause jat was pushing you you're sucking wind, boyo. i think it may be normal for you to get off to a slow start though so let me make this simple: YOU ARE NOT CONFIRMED TOWN TO ME. that means you actually have to do some shit. i see no reason jat couldn't have bussed you, and a lot of folks look way more townie than you do
onegu...only reason to townread him is the vt claim and that does actually appear to be a thing...again, if that's the only reason i can call you town, though, that's frankly not anywhere close to good enough
palmar...prp is scum? lol i can't read your game anyway, and apparently you've lost your pulse on prp as it is, but i don't know what the hell you're doing this game
damdred like...i don't think i even need to add on here. i still feel like he poe'd himself. there's a bit of awkwardness to his play this game, too, and i forget who mentioned his townreads looking naïve town, but naïve is not a word i'd associate with damdred...ever
His Palmar reasoning is actually really good and halfway makes me doubt myself on my town read.
Ritoky hasn't really done enough of pushing a scum read and is a good enough scum player to try to change up how he plays scum especially with his other scum game ending at any moment that this game is going on. And even though he says I have a soul read on him I still want to say hes townish, some of his trollish posts had some insight into it. But he sort of led the counterpush votes onto Eden leading before Rayn came in and laid the smack down on JAT.
Also there wasn't much of a bus opportunity onto Ritoky, the amount of steam and pressure that JAT+Eden could cook up at that point was pretty small in comparison to anything that was going on. Literally its a wifom vote by JAT at best. Just reading the push on Ritoky on JAT doesn't even feel like a real push because everyone is so set on a JAT lynch at that point before his claim.
IDK about oneg he just seems so out of it.
If i'm wrong about anyone its probably Rit and Palmar. Honestly, and Rits why hes town post is good but his scum reads are kind of bad like no real push on it bah.
Anyway this is where i'm at in case I get lynched. Any questions or comments
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