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On February 20 2015 17:14 Alakaslam wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2015 17:11 ritoky wrote:On February 20 2015 17:06 Alakaslam wrote:
Verily. Anyway, ritoky what do you think of the venerable alakaslam? Truly I must seek out the position of my chupazic endeavors. Only the replies of others can assist me in this, so
Whatever main point, what do you think of me ritoky.
Now & again I will do this sort of stuff. I usually make really god tier reads on day 1 as town and I get into this bad habit over the course of the game of forgetting them or talking myself out of them. I had 2 real solid reads day 1 and it was robik town and slam town, so I plan to stick to them. that said you went from my top town to not my top town since last we spoke. I was very surprised when you elected not to comment on my counter-nuking of the anti-chupazi movement on LS. even if it was an offhanded joke. It seemed like the kind of read that would really tickle your chupazi. I don't remember that?
? It dominated the entire night phase?
On February 20 2015 08:59 ritoky wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2015 07:13 LightningStrike wrote:On February 20 2015 07:08 ritoky wrote:On February 20 2015 07:06 LightningStrike wrote:On February 20 2015 06:57 ritoky wrote:On February 20 2015 06:53 LightningStrike wrote:On February 20 2015 06:36 ritoky wrote:On February 20 2015 06:28 LightningStrike wrote:On February 20 2015 06:18 ritoky wrote:On February 20 2015 06:15 LightningStrike wrote:
[quote]
The non confirmed players are either Mafia or SK and I finding you as either the SK or Mafia by Process of Elimation from all my reads and the confirmed towns were claimed roles or mod confirmed (BH) and then I decided to go meta reading players and elimated but the 5 in the non confirmed pile so that means that you are either A. Mafia or B. Serial Killer. I mean, explain how I have "mafia traits" from my meta in depth plz. examples necessary. Ya when you are Mafia you tend to super tunnel on someone for Example me in Carol of the Bells and Dr.H in Imperial. This game you been tunneled on HTS and now Me and this is the type of trait I associate with you when you are Mafia. Although i remember you Mass Murderer Slip was hilarious in Carol  I mean you're right I tunnel as both alignments. you obviously don't care very much about this read since you weren't willing to actually go find examples like asked. your read is not only bad, but made up. I am not tryharding enough to be scum this game, and there has been 0 conviction in any of my reads until this one. so I don't know where you have this "tunnel" shit coming from. in fact last phase I gave a complicated null read on HtS. Fine show me your town games and I will take a look at them. so wait, you're meta reading me as mafia when you have no idea about my town play and I am not emulating my mafia play? WHAT? Only saw your Mafia games but never your town games and the database isn't up ti date yet. I mean, regardless of your alignment. If you don't have an understanding of someone's play as both alignments, why in the hell would you ever try to meta read them? Beyond that, it's your only stated reason for scum reading me and you just openly invalidated it. I only invalidated it through POE but that was main source you getting being Antitown (SK or Mafia) and also HTS told me pretty much that you started to tunnel her but you didn't seen as agressive you were towards Me or Dr.H in the 2 previous games you were Mafia so you might as well show me your knife. still kinda interested in this. she told you this where? cuz I just went through her filter and the only thing that even comes close to her saying what you said was directed at palmar. in fact she has rarely directly spoken to you at all in the thread. so where did she tell you? cuz if it was a private thing, it was either against the rules or in a qt.
it starts on 159 I think and goes for about 2 or 3 pages of me + bh showing exactly why LS is scum
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On February 20 2015 17:15 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2015 16:55 ritoky wrote:
roleblock him and let townies try and wifom BH as a ML is an easy strat. superbia not dying is the more odd one to me. if you're rbing a jk and his vet power is claimed to be expended....eh no point in going down the wifom road now when there's a clear scum in LS on the table.
if BH is alive tomorrow, then start thinking about it since medic alive through that many night phases while claimed is sketch-city. OP does not indicate roleblock preference between RB and JK, so we can assume that roleblocks resolve simultaneously, just as Superbia concluded with simultaneous KP. If RB and JK roleblock resolve simultaneously, what you just said makes zero sense. Basically you're arguing that mafia would roleblock but not kill a confirmed JK over a vet with no protection? When that aforementioned JK still has a potential to roleblock a possible janitor in the mix? You bore me, Ritoky.
someone prompted me to explain why BH could be alive....and I gave a potential reason? you done?
how about you address the fact that you used damdred's flip to try to call me mafia, yet I called breshke mafia since basically the start of the game and demonstrated the vote logic to show a damdred + LS team was very feasible last phase even before any of this stuff.
LS is scum, you need to get that through your head. BH is town you need to get that through your head. if you can't then you're probably scum too.
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Simple question HtS; I have asked it to you about 4 times now and you have not answered. You quoted it above and didn't address it. Why, if LS is town, does he meta read me as town for "not tunneling and not fighting" then when it is convenient later scum read me for "tunneling on you.....no wait him"? Explain it. It is a fabricated read.
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Also if you look at your town reads there HtS, I think one of them had damdred as mafia in total.
Guess who did have damdred as mafia?
This guy.
Re-orient your reads quickly.
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On February 20 2015 17:27 Blazinghand wrote:
hey ritoky, let's talk strategy realy quick. I can push on LS pretty hard if you want, but it might actually hurt the wagon since many players (who are not at your/my level) don't trust me for some reason. At the very least I'm gonna post a quick summary and a couple links, and do the usual respond-to-questions thing, but do you want a hard push on LS from me, or just the regular casewriting? I'm thinking a hard push would be counterproductive to getting LS lynched
Who would be the viable alternative to a LS lynch today?
I still don't have a firm opinion on VA like you do, so that's troublesome.
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I just can't see how LS is not scum from his play. he slipped pretty clearly, he manufactured a read that is a direct contradiction, his defense was bad.....there's just so much there...I can't really see myself voting on anyone else at this point, but if you have a better case or equal one then I am up for hearing it.
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On February 20 2015 17:32 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2015 17:31 ritoky wrote:On February 20 2015 17:27 Blazinghand wrote:
hey ritoky, let's talk strategy realy quick. I can push on LS pretty hard if you want, but it might actually hurt the wagon since many players (who are not at your/my level) don't trust me for some reason. At the very least I'm gonna post a quick summary and a couple links, and do the usual respond-to-questions thing, but do you want a hard push on LS from me, or just the regular casewriting? I'm thinking a hard push would be counterproductive to getting LS lynched Who would be the viable alternative to a LS lynch today? I still don't have a firm opinion on VA like you do, so that's troublesome. I'm voting LS either way, and writing a decent case on him, barring something very strange happening. The question is do you think it would help us lynch him if I want HAM on him or would it be better if I let you drive the wagon
just do a normal case on him, if people can't see it clearly from that point then they're not going to understand it when being beaten over the head with it.
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On February 20 2015 17:48 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2015 17:20 ritoky wrote:
how about you address the fact that you used damdred's flip to try to call me mafia, yet I called breshke mafia since basically the start of the game and demonstrated the vote logic to show a damdred + LS team was very feasible last phase even before any of this stuff.
LS is scum, you need to get that through your head. BH is town you need to get that through your head. if you can't then you're probably scum too. Damdred flipped scum and others will be using his filter to look for associative reads. Are you not reading the thread? Yes, Ritoky, you can call any of your teammates mafia for later credit when they flip. I wasn't born yesterday. A few others had Breshke on the lynchables list for his lurking. Your point? VCA is a great tool to use when you're town but scum are capable of misrepresenting that too. You've been misrepresenting things all game. LS sheeps votes a lot as town, so with a Damdred flip of course it's going to make any town you managed to pair off with him two days in a row look bad.
you didn't address what i asked you at all, why are you avoiding it?
you should know that i am the king of vote logic, i champion vote logic moreso than any active player on these forums; to tell if i am town look if i am drawing conclusions from it.
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Speaking of vote logic! Fire up that vote logic engine!
A couple hours before rayn's cop claim:
On February 19 2015 06:33 marvellosity wrote:
Vote Count
BlazingHand (1) - VayneAuthority
VayneAuthority (2) - BlazingHand, rsoultin
raynpelikoneet (5) - Damdred, LightningStrike, Palmar, Half the Sky, Alakaslam
Half the Sky (1) - raynpelikoneet
raynpelikoneet is set to be lynched. 7h26m until deadline
End of day vote count? I think this is accurate:
On February 19 2015 12:41 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
That story almost made me fuck up the votecount
raynpelikoneet (8) - Half the Sky, ritoky, rsoultin, LightningStrike, Palmar, Alakaslam, Superbia, Damdred, Fecalfeast
Palmar (1) - Raynpelikoneet
LightningStrike (1) - IAmRobik
Blazinghand (1) - VayneAuthority
VayneAuthority (1) - Blazinghand
Not Voting (1): prplhz
Voting ends in
On February 17 2015 15:50 ritoky wrote:
Day 1 Votecount
liancourt (8) - Blazinghand, IAmRobik, LightningStrike, FecalFeast, ritoky, Breshke, Superbia, rsoultin
Blazinghand (5) - Half the Sky, VayneAuthority, liancourt, KelsierSC, prplhz
Town Puppy (1) - Alakaslam
raynpelikoneet (1) - Palmar
Half the Sky (1) - raynpelikoneet
rsoultin (1) - Town Puppy
I am green because I am town, superbia is green because his claim makes 0 sense from a mafia perspective given the context, and BH is green cuz of his claim and play combined.
The following may be hard to follow and choppy because it is me just dumping a train of thought.
Like I said earlier in my previous vote analysis, I think there is likely 2 mafia if not more who voted on lian day 1. damdred/breshke was 1, which would leave likely 1 more between LS/FF/rsoul. If you look at the prior to rayn claim sample for votes, LS has followed damdred onto rayn, rsoul is on VA, and FF isn't voted (he is I believe the last person to vote on rayn).
The only 2 question marks who weren't on rayn last phase were VA (voted on BH both phases) and prphlz (who is in modkill range after not voting, so isn't worth discussing unless he comes back). If we assume there's 1 mafia amongst these two lurky players (which isn't an unreasonable assumption); then that leaves the last mafia in slam, palmar, and hts; and an sk somewhere.
So grouping on day 1: 1 between LS, FF, rsoul
1 between prphlz, VA
1 between slam, palmar, hts
at mid day:
LS -> rayn, FF - > n/a, rsoul -> VA
prp -> n/a, VA -> BH
slam -> n/a, palm -> rayn, hts -> rayn
Examining the 3rd pairing, palmar was really championing the rayn lynch which was followed up on by both damdred and HtS, palmar least likely mafia in this grouping from votes because his wagon on rayn. Mafia more likely between slam and hts. slam votes inconsequential (town) then rayn, hts votes secondary wagon. Statistically hts more likely mafia based on "mafia don't want to be caught stray voting" statistics. Also, if slam mafia and if mafia killed eden at night makes no sense for his vote to be parked there.
So likelihood of mafia by each grouping:
group a: 1) LS, 2) rsoul, 3) FF
group b: 1) VA 2) prp (prp only second because en route to modkill)
group c: 1) HtS 2) Slam 3) Palmar
i think i am wrong somewhere in there, and i am not really sure where from pure voting logic. i have to sleep, so i will look back at this tomorrow to see if it still makes sense. meanwhile, LS is mafia.
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NOTICE: Everyone should have read or read pages 158-161.
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rsoul, if you don't like the slip post, then look at the very simple reason I gave that literally 0 people have addressed and I have asked about it like 6 times now.
toward the end of day 1 LS gave a meta read on me that I was town for not fighting and tunneling, during this past night phase he flipped that read for no reason. he claimed I was now mafia for meta reasons for tunneling HtS, I asked him to prove it, he rescinded and claimed I was tunneling him because of 3 posts I made stating he could be mafia. this read is a DIRECT CONTRADICTION to his earlier read.
someone please explain to me how that is not scum?
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I will say it also really bugs me how little people are trying to solve the game...like HtS is wrong as all get-out, but I am tempted to move her to null/lean town just cuz she is at least looking at alternatives.
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On February 21 2015 00:07 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2015 17:34 Blazinghand wrote:On February 20 2015 17:32 ritoky wrote:
I just can't see how LS is not scum from his play. he slipped pretty clearly, he manufactured a read that is a direct contradiction, his defense was bad.....there's just so much there...I can't really see myself voting on anyone else at this point, but if you have a better case or equal one then I am up for hearing it. I don't. I'm discusssing what's our best strategy for getting LS Lycnhed today. Do you get what i'm saying? I'm voting LS 100% but how much I write about him... like it might not be optimal for me to actually write a lot of case on him, you get what I'm saying? People are stupid and dont' trust me Blazinghand, is your main reason for scumreading LS that one post about HtS? Because, frankly, I think that's beneath you, and I'm not at all comfortable with Damdred's willingness to call it damning, either. Ritoky's vote analysis has more backing in logic than that, although I'm not sure how statistically sound it is to assume mafia follow each other around like ducklings.
There's a lot more statistics and logic to my vote analysis, I just elect to not post it in the thread cuz I have before and people find it unreadable and boring as hell and choose not to read it. I track lynches contributed to, town/mafia voted on, most voted with, when scum vote on partners, first 3 and last 3 on a wagon, and more such things.
but I mean simply look at the #s for the day 1 votes, there are (for me) 8 people who are question marks on that vote. 3 of them are on the lead lynch, 3 of them are on the secondary lynch, and 2 are stray voting. generally speaking from my statistics I keep stray voting is a way that mafia easily die late in the game, so many non-afk type mafia tend to avoid it. palmar and slam aren't really the afk type. anyway just by averages alone it would say that there is 1 among each block of voting, but if you bring in the second vote you can see patterns emerge of people voting with eachother, when they move, etc.
there's a lot of explaining to it, but suffice it to say that if I look at my statistics when there are split votes mafia very often vote in blocks of 2 or 3, and in consolidated votes can often be found bunched.
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okay then convince me you're not mafia LS. find mafia. let's live in the hypothetical world where I am mod confirmed town, who is mafia and why?
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this isn't finding mafia, this is just quoting a game and telling me to find mafia.
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On February 21 2015 06:33 Superbia wrote:
I think wagons on both prplhz and slam is good start to this day.
##Vote: prplhz
1) what is wrong with the LS vote?
2) why the hell would you ever vote on some1 who is en route to be modkilled?
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On February 21 2015 06:38 Superbia wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2015 06:35 ritoky wrote:On February 21 2015 06:33 Superbia wrote:
I think wagons on both prplhz and slam is good start to this day.
##Vote: prplhz 1) what is wrong with the LS vote? 2) why the hell would you ever vote on some1 who is en route to be modkilled? I don't think LS is scum. What's the status on prplhz? Is he set to be modkilled, replaced or warned?
Why?
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if he was getting subbed, wouldn't it have happened after he didn't vote last day phase or not posting for like 48 hrs?
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On February 21 2015 06:43 Superbia wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2015 06:39 ritoky wrote:On February 21 2015 06:38 Superbia wrote:On February 21 2015 06:35 ritoky wrote:On February 21 2015 06:33 Superbia wrote:
I think wagons on both prplhz and slam is good start to this day.
##Vote: prplhz 1) what is wrong with the LS vote? 2) why the hell would you ever vote on some1 who is en route to be modkilled? I don't think LS is scum. What's the status on prplhz? Is he set to be modkilled, replaced or warned? Why? It's in my filter. His filter seems very similar to his town game and absolutely dissimilar to his scum game. I would be fine with you starting a wagon on him and seeing how it plays out.
I did over 24 hours ago?
Did you not read pages 158-161? I put NOTICE in caps that everyone needs to read it.
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I will be on in an hour, I had to work back to back shifts
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EPT
