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On February 10 2015 05:22 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2015 05:20 liancourt wrote:
how does this make obi mafia? gobs tomorrow because he switched to Keirathi, which implies he thinks Keirathi is more likely to be mafia than gobble is. When he votes, he sees his scumread geript has voted gobble, then he switches back. makes no fucking sense at all.
So where's the scum motivation in switching twice like that?
The way you're saying it implies that both wagons are town, so why would I care who I voted if I was mafia?
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On February 10 2015 04:30 ObiWanShinobi wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2015 04:28 sicklucker wrote:On February 10 2015 04:25 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
(I also think rayn's case is pretty good and am reconsidering my read on him, but meh I'm kind of trying to ensure that I don't die on day 1.) you dont think rayns town? Ill admit my early read of him trying to solve th eame one makes him town losses some credit when he disappears but thats not uncharacteristic of him to randomly disappear. No, I think rayn is obviously town. I'm saying that I read his case on Keirathi and think there's some merit to it. When you commented on how you think both wagons are okay, I realized that I kind of thought the same thing. There's no way all 3 of these wagons can be prodded forward by mafia anyways. For that to be a possibility requires geript, rayn, and some other crazy possibility to be mafia and I really don't think that's the case.
Here.
Rayn, you started shouting that gobble was town and that the lynch on gd only made sense if Kei was mafia. The way I saw it meant that I would have to lynch both, but then you started shouting that gd was town and I was like "fuck what if he's right."
As for why I switched back, I think I just panicked because I thought gd was going to get lynched first. I got really impulsive and lost track of my thought process.
@geript: Let me get this straight. If I think both wagons are town, then I switch for no reason despite having no scum motivation to do so and I'm mafia. But if I didn't switch I'd still be mafia.
It's pure confirmation bias. It wouldn't matter what I say to you here because you're already convinced that I'm mafia so...Whatever.
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On February 10 2015 05:26 geript wrote:
If you're mafia and both wagons are town, you don't care which one you end on. It's literally irrelevant. You'd be ambivalent as to which wagon you were on.
Let's check to see if you were ambivalent: DONE!
THEN WHY DO I SWITCH TWICE AT THE LAST SECOND?
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Your whole theory revolves around me making the worst move possible when I have nothing to lose.
How does that make sense?
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On February 10 2015 05:35 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2015 05:33 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
As for why I switched back, I think I just panicked because I thought gd was going to get lynched first. I got really impulsive and lost track of my thought process.
. you switched back because you thought who you switched to was gonna get lynched anyways?
The guy I switched from*.
I had no idea Kei was going to get lynched that way if I had switched.
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On February 10 2015 05:37 geript wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2015 05:35 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
Your whole theory revolves around me making the worst move possible when I have nothing to lose.
How does that make sense? Nope. Doesn't in any way. You making a move that makes no sense if you're town and doesn't matter whatsoever if you're mafia is alignment indictive. Would you like to continue to misrepresent my arguments and try and straw man them?
You are bad at this game.
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On February 10 2015 05:40 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2015 05:38 ObiWanShinobi wrote:On February 10 2015 05:37 geript wrote:On February 10 2015 05:35 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
Your whole theory revolves around me making the worst move possible when I have nothing to lose.
How does that make sense? Nope. Doesn't in any way. You making a move that makes no sense if you're town and doesn't matter whatsoever if you're mafia is alignment indictive. Would you like to continue to misrepresent my arguments and try and straw man them? You are bad at this game. can you actually say something about this because really, you aren't making any sense here. don't say "why would i do that as scum", it is not the question. the question is "why would you do that as town", because it doesn't make any sense.
I switched because you told me to and I got impulsive.
I switched back because I wasn't even confident in switching in the first place.
Kei got lynched completely by accident and I intended for gd to be lynched after all was said and done. I didn't even want to lynch Kei for most of the day until you came back and pushed for him hard.
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On February 10 2015 05:41 liancourt wrote:
when obi does things that are unexplainable and down right r******** you have to read him town for that.
I'm annoyed but...Yeah. Prbs.
God I wish this was IML.
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Geript voting was irrelevant to me because I wasn't even scumreading him anymore.
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/shrug
I'm heading off to work. I accept the fact that I might get lynched for switching the way I did but don't sit there and focus on me for all of tomorrow. There's still 3 scum out there, at least 2 if you don't want to believe me. That's fine.
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I'm not even that lazy...
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On February 10 2015 06:46 raynpelikoneet wrote:
omfg can anyone think like this as town?
Yes. I have no problem with lians posting.
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On February 10 2015 09:20 Damdred wrote:
Like that YouTube post just feels so blah and gloating to me
This is not a good point to make ftr. Feels don't make a case.
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On February 10 2015 09:45 gobbledydook wrote:
wat the hell was obi thinking when he voted keir
apparently the best reason offered so far about obi being scum is he wouldnt do that vote switch as town, and hes useless?
what about this, i played with him last time in championship belt, he was fucking useless and does weird ass things and we scumread him at lylo and lost? that switching vote thingy can happen often esp when ppl get confused by last-minute switches by other ppl and the ten million reasons why X is or is not mafia that they throw out and expect ppl to understand in five minutes?
i dont think rayns '100% mafia' read is right in fact i think at most its a coinflip on ows here
ls i have a bad timezone and things to do sorry i couldnt be on after that last post i made?
This is a good post.
Townie points for whoever can guess why.
(No, not because he might not lynch me.)
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On February 10 2015 10:58 Damdred wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2015 10:52 ObiWanShinobi wrote:On February 10 2015 09:20 Damdred wrote:
Like that YouTube post just feels so blah and gloating to me This is not a good point to make ftr. Feels don't make a case. Stop being dumb obi, feeling tone etc. Can catch mafia.
I know they can.
The issue is that what you're saying can be interpreted multiple ways and saying that "it feels gloaty" isn't enough to warrant a lynch. I think you might be letting confirmation bias affect you atm.
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Also the reason I liked that post GD just made is that it limits his options: I'd imagine that I'm a prime lynch candidate for tomorrow just based on geript and rayn wanting to lynch me. If GD comes up with reasons to say "I don't like lynching this player for these reasons" that means that he has to come up with new ones which is going to be difficult.
It would probably be easier to read him because of it if geript wasn't tunneling this hard but merh.
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On February 10 2015 11:04 Alakaslam wrote:It depends on rayn & Geript. They have vastly different opinions on me, and Rayn's is very strong. One of them is wrong, and this can shed light on ows from my perspective. However, they both peaced out as soon as I showed up. Ows is either scum like they say (making a lot of sense atm) or, like on keirathi they are wrong (in that rayn was wrong- now he is sheeping Geript- understandably). But I know rayn was right on me. This introduces a lot of wifom for me. What if rayn and Geript are varying degrees of right and wrong on stuff and rayn was right on ows before? And Geript is pushing ows for good reasons seemingly but it seemed good with keir too. So ows then may also be town. And then we get to this wifom: what if rayn is scum? Does that affect things? Of course it does, and Geript would get a townread from me. Harder for me to see is, what if Geript is scum? Then rayn gets a renewed townread from me, and well I came back to this draft and don't remember what I was saying before I had to leave. Oh it means he has massive cred & such but that can be seen when we see what people flip & stuff
Do you actually have a solid read on anyone or what?
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Right. I forgot. Geript is giving free townreads out for people who help him tunnel me.
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On February 10 2015 11:19 Alakaslam wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2015 11:10 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
Right. I forgot. Geript is giving free townreads out for people who help him tunnel me. I don't think I would get one for it.
Sure buddy.
If I'm not scum, who is and why? Come up with reasons. Make some reads.
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On February 10 2015 12:24 Damdred wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2015 10:59 ObiWanShinobi wrote:On February 10 2015 10:58 Damdred wrote:On February 10 2015 10:52 ObiWanShinobi wrote:On February 10 2015 09:20 Damdred wrote:
Like that YouTube post just feels so blah and gloating to me This is not a good point to make ftr. Feels don't make a case. Stop being dumb obi, feeling tone etc. Can catch mafia. I know they can. The issue is that what you're saying can be interpreted multiple ways and saying that "it feels gloaty" isn't enough to warrant a lynch. I think you might be letting confirmation bias affect you atm. The title of the video was Do nothing and win, luigi of course. That is gloating a bit no matter how you look at it. Also my case still stands, and your point about why Gobbles post is sorta wifom. Why do mafia hard defend townies for no reason? To get town cred at flips, Who cares if it limits options there might be a brand new wagon tomorrow maybe gobble will try to get LS lynched who knows. Also the post is extremely open ended, it doesnt' call you town it doesn't call you scum it says you are a coin flip. So i'm not really sure how it is limiting itself in that case?
Yeah, I understand the point you're making but I don't see a huge amount of value in it.
The issue isn't that gobble is being open ended in calling me town or not. The issue is that he can't hop on my wagon for the same reasons rayn and geript are, which means that he's going to have to conjure up new reasons. If he decides to hop on my wagon for the reasons that he stated aren't very good, then he's mafia.
Get it?
I understand that you still want to lynch gobble, but at least be open to the fact that he could be town or we might need to lynch someone else.
I fully understand that I could be biased but, even if gobble is mafia, there are two more besides him.
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EPT
