EPTHorn of Africa Mini Mafia - Page 42
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On February 09 2015 13:39 rsoultin wrote: Fair enough. Probably headed to bed myself. Breshke, Eden, anything else y'all want to talk about? Am I a glory hog for shoot JAT lynch marv? | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Breshke, I think you should shoot JAT and go from there. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Ugh. bats, why did you scan JAT? | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Breshke shoot JAT always. He's the best pick for mafia right now + we might learn something about bats (depending on the flip) + we might learn something about the mafia (depending on flip) + if he's somehow town then we at least know that much instead of spending forever speculating about it + between marv and JAT I trust marv to bleed town more | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Bats, you should roll a d3 online and pick among Breshke, rsoultin, or LightningStrike | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On February 09 2015 15:52 justanothertownie wrote: I am pretty clueless. That's why I need to see the nightactions. Probably rsoultin? It could also be bats and he is just swagging on me because of our last game but I don't think this is very likely. It could also be marv but my gut said he is town all game. On the other hand we just let him live because of his 100% read on which he is never wrong. And he was wrong. You absolutely cannot shoot me here. You don't even learn anything if I flipped scum. And this won't happen because I am town and we will be in LYLO. Good luck finding both scum in that case. Assume me or Breshke dies since that happens 9 times out of 10. Add in scum LS from Breshke's shot. You have yourself, rsoultin, marv, batsnacks and the other of me or Breshke alive. Where do you go from there? | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On February 09 2015 16:12 Breshke wrote: Okay i shoot LS he flips scum and scum either shoots me or eden and we flip town what then? Why is rsoultin "probably mafia"? That's what I'm talkin about son! | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Frankly though I'm not sure I can leave it up to you and marv to figure each other out. There's a nonnegligible chance - actually a pretty decent chance in my book - that you're both mafia. That combination worries the fuck out of me because you're both hella good and I suspect I wouldn't be around to figure you out. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Now til EOD needs to be a damn Britfest in here. I need to see you both busting your asses. I don't think I make it to d3 and I am clueless as to whether or not either of you are town. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On February 09 2015 18:48 marvellosity wrote: tbh I think we shoot LS and if he flips framer or non-GF then we're a go. gotta take that shot though What happens if he doesn't? Say he flips GF, what does that change? Or... God forbid, town? | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Later in the game, after several players have flipped, you can discern something about the identity of the opposing team by the activity pattern of the players lynched. A few observations in my experience tend to hold true: (1) If a mafia player is lynched early in the game or without much resistance, this tends to imply that the opposing team is relatively weak or lacking in thread presence. The logic at play here is that early lynches are very easy to deflect off of teammates and onto townies, and that mafia teams with stronger thread presence are capable of protecting their weaker links, while mafia teams with weaker thread presence aren't, and resort to busing or otherwise allowing their own to die. (2) The mafia tends to have a thread presence opposite that of the general thread presence of the townies that have been mislynched. In other words, if most of the townies that have been mislynched were relatively active and involved players, the mafia tends to be relatively inactive, and if most of the townies that have been mislynched were relatively inactive and uninvolved players, the mafia tends to be relatively active. This is where the two classic situations of a "town tearing itself apart" and a "mafia shepherding a town" come from: in the first one, active townies naturally gravitate toward killing one another, because hitting inactives is generally dissatisfying and active townies will tend to say some suspicious things as a byproduct of posting a lot, and in the second one, active mafia are capable of pushing through otherwise-questionable lynches on townies due to sheer force of willpower and thread presence. Now, granted, we've only had two actual lynches, but two other factors nonetheless permit me to make this analysis: (1) Early in N1, two townies who were popular wagons during D1 were modkilled, sufficient to create a de facto triple lynch. (2) The vigilante's shots have been unusually publicly discussed, making them effectively extensions of normal lynches. As a result, we can look at five different kills instead of just two, which is sufficient for this kind of analysis. The players killed in this fashion were: - Onegu (VT) - Damdred (VT) - sicklucker (VT) - Koshi (Goon) - Holyflare (VT) Of these five, three of the four townies (Damdred, sicklucker, Holyflare) were pretty active in the thread. They posted frequently and put forth efforts to solve the game ranging from respectable to commendable. Onegu is the one outlier, the victim of a late choke at EOD from yours truly. Koshi, on the other hand, was very inactive, didn't try very hard to solve the game and was very noticeably absent the entire way. Other players have been relatively inactive; Breshke was relatively inactive until he claimed vig, batsnacks has been relatively inactive the entire way, LS has chimed in sometimes but tends to afk for extended periods. Yet Koshi, who was mafia, ended up being lynched for this with relatively little resistance. These observations lead me to conclude that we are not dealing with a very active scumteam. If we were, Koshi would not have been so easily caught, and we wouldn't be lynching as many active townies as we are. This provides more evidence for LS as mafia, enough to where I'm back to wanting to shoot him. I still feel like either of marv or JAT could just have the unfortunate luck to be stuck carrying on their own here, but I do think this analysis helps to make them look town. The issue is that it implicates batsnacks, which is really tricky. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On February 09 2015 19:23 marvellosity wrote: like there's no way bats/LS are mafia together because it makes bats' play on d2 totally redundant What was bats' play and what does a bats/LS team make redundant? (and yes I know what you're referencing, I'm just not following your thoughts) | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On February 09 2015 20:12 marvellosity wrote: it certainly looks like it man what is this? ugh | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
instincts OP, this sequence is hella wrong On February 09 2015 18:47 marvellosity wrote: jat is fingering rsoultin as mafia when rsoultin just looks very, very townie. On February 09 2015 18:48 marvellosity wrote: tbh I think we shoot LS and if he flips framer or non-GF then we're a go. gotta take that shot though On February 09 2015 18:55 marvellosity wrote: although personally i would go full yolo and shoot jat On February 09 2015 19:55 Breshke wrote: I agree so from your PoV JAT is like confirmed mafia On February 09 2015 20:12 marvellosity wrote: it certainly looks like it marv already had all the reasons needed to scumread JAT but called shooting him "a yolo play" and suggests killing LS instead when Breshke points out that JAT is confirmed mafia with the info marv already cited, marv says "it certainly looks like [JAT is confirmed mafia]" and then doesn't revise his shot call ...which means his shot call is the same as the person he has as confirmed mafia! these guys are the scumteam shoot marv lynch JAT we win | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Jill KAT | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On February 10 2015 00:49 marvellosity wrote: miller get realz thx Meh. Reading that I was fakeclaiming miller wasn't that hard IMO. I keep finding this really unconvincing. Breshke shoot this guy. I want to kill JAT myself. | ||
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