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On February 09 2015 01:20 batsnacks wrote:
I've solved the game.
marv and breshke are the remaining mafia. Breshke is a mafia vig, he shot koshi. They did this because breshke and koshi were already highly suspected and likely to get lynched. Also the number of VTs that died makes this more do-able. Marv shot palmar because palmar would have figured out his alignment the longer the game went on.
I originally thought it was HF + breshke because it seems like a play HF would do but I think this is right.
The Breshke part isn't as terrible as I initially thought when I read this, but we would have to have power roles out the ass for this to be a balanced game with a 2-shot mafia vig as the only known role out there.
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On February 09 2015 01:27 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On February 09 2015 01:25 justanothertownie wrote:
Bats if Breshke was scumvig he would have just shot a townie instead and we would have been in LYLO instantly. What if there's only 2 mafia with a 2 shot vig and no town roles??
then Breshke is the only mafia left and shot his partner because he thought he could swag on Palmar, marv, HF, JAT and me
I'm... not seeing it sorry
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I'm tellin y'all the best theory for the night by far is that scum marv fear-shot Palmar because Palmar gave him the town read and he didn't want Palmar to have a chance to change his mind
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(and they gave up Koshi for dead because they had to)
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On February 09 2015 01:31 batsnacks wrote:
I'm the cop, I check jat last night.
He's town.
This is consistent with my actions today.
They are not going to let me live after I just solved the game anyway.
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/L4h7pLo.gif)
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Holy shit hang on.
There is no fuckin way we have a cop AND a 2-shot vig.
Oh my god
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Wait hold up
Don't we have to lynch Breshke then? Because otherwise he gets a shot off again
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On February 09 2015 01:31 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On February 09 2015 01:29 Eden1892 wrote:
I'm tellin y'all the best theory for the night by far is that scum marv fear-shot Palmar because Palmar gave him the town read and he didn't want Palmar to have a chance to change his mind The problem with this is that you are implying that town Palmar strongly misread scum marv.
It can happen during the first day. I get that they're pretty good at reading each other, but if you think about it, even 90% accuracy after 1 day is still 1 in 10 games where it's wrong, which isn't that unrealistic a chance of happening given what else has been going on with marv.
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On February 09 2015 01:37 justanothertownie wrote:
If Breshke was real AND we have a cop. Then scum HAS to have a rber right? The nightactions make 0 sense. Am I dumb?
Pretty much.
Actually, go back and read my narration of the night actions in my case on marv. Doesn't it make even more sense if you assume that Breshke is the scum vig and therefore marv knows the shot on Koshi is coming with absolute confidence? He can allow himself to change course on Koshi to look townie in advance of Koshi getting sacrificed.
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On February 09 2015 01:42 rsoultin wrote:
okay, so hold on, hold on
if bresh is actually the mafia vig, which honestly I kept discarding as a possibility because of the koshi shot despite the night actions not really making sense, shouldn't we lynch him first?
yes but I'm selfish and want to catch the King
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On February 09 2015 01:41 Holyflare wrote:
Ah what if framer + gf?? + miller = balance with vig and cop?
so... we lynch marv instead is what i'm hearing
or we could lynch ls
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On February 09 2015 01:39 LightningStrike wrote:
Can I get a dose of reality please?
what dooes this meaaan
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On February 09 2015 01:44 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 09 2015 01:43 rsoultin wrote:On February 09 2015 01:41 Holyflare wrote:
Ah what if framer + gf?? + miller = balance with vig and cop? or that -_- HF you're making this harder, not easier lol EBWOP: actually, I still don't get keeping bresh alive with that scenario? can you walk me through it?
MARV IS MAFIA AND FEAR SHOT PALMAR
I BELIEVE
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On February 09 2015 01:45 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On February 09 2015 01:44 Eden1892 wrote:On February 09 2015 01:41 Holyflare wrote:
Ah what if framer + gf?? + miller = balance with vig and cop? so... we lynch marv instead is what i'm hearing or we could lynch ls No idea why we wouldn't lynch HF though.
b/c he's town :|
See Beyonde The Noise
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Wait a minute wait a minute wait a minute.
10 people left. 2 shot scum vig 2 other mafia.
Scum shoots 2 town. 4-3
Town lynches scum. 4-2
Scum shoots 2 town. 2-2 scum wins.
This doesn't make sense anymore
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In fact Koshi even pointed this out himself(!) during N1. So mafia knew it. Game would have been auto in all but name, dependent on a docsave when mafia would have just been shooting specifically to dodge a medic the whole time
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On February 09 2015 01:48 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On February 09 2015 01:47 Eden1892 wrote:
Wait a minute wait a minute wait a minute.
10 people left. 2 shot scum vig 2 other mafia.
Scum shoots 2 town. 4-3
Town lynches scum. 4-2
Scum shoots 2 town. 2-2 scum wins.
This doesn't make sense anymore Good point. IF there are 2 other mafia.
Sorry but in no world do I think Breshke is the last mafia in this game. That dude can be okay mafia when he tries, but unless he improved at warp speed between NYE and this game, he isn't solo swagging a town with all of the tlmafia gods in it
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On February 09 2015 01:50 batsnacks wrote:Show nested quote +On February 09 2015 01:47 Eden1892 wrote:
Wait a minute wait a minute wait a minute.
10 people left. 2 shot scum vig 2 other mafia.
Scum shoots 2 town. 4-3
Town lynches scum. 4-2
Scum shoots 2 town. 2-2 scum wins.
This doesn't make sense anymore It does if breshke got lynched... which he does without the vig claim.
Nah. For one I'm not sure Breshke was getting lynched over Koshi d2. For another even if he were, you shoot to put town in LYLO in that situation all the time
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EPT
