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On March 07 2015 04:39 geript wrote:
Really Sandro? Really? I don't get it. Wat? The same bastard hosting bullshit from Tube/SL?
Fuck this. Fuck this. I'm giong to get food and call an HR guy. I'm done arguing over this shit. I'm done.
Did you actually do the math on this? Assuming 1 spot is taken by mafia and the rest of the spots are ramdomized there is actually 1 - (14/20^3) = 75,7% chance another spot in the cell is taken by mafia.
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On March 07 2015 04:42 geript wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2015 04:39 Tubesock wrote:On March 07 2015 04:28 geript wrote:On March 07 2015 04:19 Tubesock wrote:
There is risk in cop checking town as mafia. Mafia needs a "confirmed" town so they have an excuse to night kill them instead of any town leading mafia. The risk is that that "check" flips ninja and then it was a 1vs1.
You fucking started talking about how we should kill a ninja first. You hunt ninja. WHY?
Look at the non obvious towns. Kurumi, Sicklucker, Fecalfeast, Batsnacks, me (who Rayne thought was ninja along with Obi), Oats, Onegu, Sepulchre, Slam, and Obi. I bet you thought about the odds of each of those players to flip ninja. Mafia QT probably decided Onegu was a safe bet, plus they could WIFOM how stupid it would be to fake a cellmate. More importantly, they need to protect against a 1 v 1. Getting a cell containing Sandroba was unlucky on mafia's part.
Mafia needs to reduce the odds of a claim flipping ninja. The claim also has to be believable.
Yet, you refuse to believe that there is a chance that none of the top towns are mafia, that all of them are bad or lurky. And also that if one of the top towns IS mafia then they are too stupid to know they have to plan to have an excuse they lived past night 2. Point 1. Complete fail. Confirmed townies are #3 on the list of people to kill. Always #3. Below Roles and people who are able to read the game well and push lynches. Like this is insane. Point 2. I've already explained this. Ninjas on D1 are worse for town than mafia are. It's counter intuitive, but if you remove a Ninja on D1, then you remove 3 KP that is very likely to hit town from the game. That's far more than you get from hitting mafia on D1. Point 3. That's a big list of people who are quite likely to be mafia. GJ if you're town because you're a retard if you believe this shit. Point 4. WAT? Point 5. I think that there are "top town" who could be mafia. Like Robik only started posting after I bugged him. He's also a good enough player to be "salty" after not getting his shot. He's also done reasonably little and isn't following any sort of common sense read that I've seen him use in video mafia. I just don't fucking care to talk about them today because there's literally no point in that right now. I can't lynch Robik today. Kita could be mafia. I really haven't bothered looking at his filter since D1. 10 suspects in a game with 8 nontowns is big? So, everyone should have only 8 suspects with full confidence in 100% accuracy? And funny that's not a town looking for mafia list. thats a mafia looking for ninja list. Outside of the claim people think Sandroba is mafia. Both nk'd towns died scumming Sandroba. But you're fighting and not considering that those people were correct. And if you die along with one of those I would suspect the remainder of being mafia. But they are not showing any indications that they will be saved somehow. You however are "towny" enough to have been given a gun by presumably the town spirit. You are already preemptively providing excuses for how you live. Robik and Kita are not even thinking about that. ![[image loading]](http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/7e/7e05cfb0d554c683769a319b95183ccc84f74d226488b8f3de7bd00b240d2bc1.jpg)
hahaha that's awesome. I like my ride. I'll get some fuzzy dice for the mirror.
You're still not pushing to kill me. I'm clearly being a huge distraction and am trying my best to kill a uncc'd cop power guy who is clearly town. I have to be mafia. There is like no other possible explanation. 100%.
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On March 07 2015 04:44 sandroba wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2015 04:39 geript wrote:
Really Sandro? Really? I don't get it. Wat? The same bastard hosting bullshit from Tube/SL?
Fuck this. Fuck this. I'm giong to get food and call an HR guy. I'm done arguing over this shit. I'm done. Did you actually do the math on this? Assuming 1 spot is taken by mafia and the rest of the spots are ramdomized there is actually 1 - (14/20^3) = 75,7% chance another spot in the cell is taken by mafia.
![[image loading]](https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRbzb57hjcg4xgRCOcL-p41Jse5FP09mgyiDNEZW5qhyYGVdxcM)
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Actually I realize i did the math wrong and it's actually 14/19 which makes it 71% but yeah, I think you get my point.
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On March 07 2015 04:45 Tubesock wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2015 04:42 geript wrote:On March 07 2015 04:39 Tubesock wrote:On March 07 2015 04:28 geript wrote:On March 07 2015 04:19 Tubesock wrote:
There is risk in cop checking town as mafia. Mafia needs a "confirmed" town so they have an excuse to night kill them instead of any town leading mafia. The risk is that that "check" flips ninja and then it was a 1vs1.
You fucking started talking about how we should kill a ninja first. You hunt ninja. WHY?
Look at the non obvious towns. Kurumi, Sicklucker, Fecalfeast, Batsnacks, me (who Rayne thought was ninja along with Obi), Oats, Onegu, Sepulchre, Slam, and Obi. I bet you thought about the odds of each of those players to flip ninja. Mafia QT probably decided Onegu was a safe bet, plus they could WIFOM how stupid it would be to fake a cellmate. More importantly, they need to protect against a 1 v 1. Getting a cell containing Sandroba was unlucky on mafia's part.
Mafia needs to reduce the odds of a claim flipping ninja. The claim also has to be believable.
Yet, you refuse to believe that there is a chance that none of the top towns are mafia, that all of them are bad or lurky. And also that if one of the top towns IS mafia then they are too stupid to know they have to plan to have an excuse they lived past night 2. Point 1. Complete fail. Confirmed townies are #3 on the list of people to kill. Always #3. Below Roles and people who are able to read the game well and push lynches. Like this is insane. Point 2. I've already explained this. Ninjas on D1 are worse for town than mafia are. It's counter intuitive, but if you remove a Ninja on D1, then you remove 3 KP that is very likely to hit town from the game. That's far more than you get from hitting mafia on D1. Point 3. That's a big list of people who are quite likely to be mafia. GJ if you're town because you're a retard if you believe this shit. Point 4. WAT? Point 5. I think that there are "top town" who could be mafia. Like Robik only started posting after I bugged him. He's also a good enough player to be "salty" after not getting his shot. He's also done reasonably little and isn't following any sort of common sense read that I've seen him use in video mafia. I just don't fucking care to talk about them today because there's literally no point in that right now. I can't lynch Robik today. Kita could be mafia. I really haven't bothered looking at his filter since D1. 10 suspects in a game with 8 nontowns is big? So, everyone should have only 8 suspects with full confidence in 100% accuracy? And funny that's not a town looking for mafia list. thats a mafia looking for ninja list. Outside of the claim people think Sandroba is mafia. Both nk'd towns died scumming Sandroba. But you're fighting and not considering that those people were correct. And if you die along with one of those I would suspect the remainder of being mafia. But they are not showing any indications that they will be saved somehow. You however are "towny" enough to have been given a gun by presumably the town spirit. You are already preemptively providing excuses for how you live. Robik and Kita are not even thinking about that. hahaha that's awesome. I like my ride. I'll get some fuzzy dice for the mirror. You're still not pushing to kill me. I'm clearly being a huge distraction and am trying my best to kill a uncc'd cop power guy who is clearly town. I have to be mafia. There is like no other possible explanation. 100%.
I'm not pushing to kill you because I don't think you're mafia. Hence the short bus.
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On March 07 2015 04:47 sandroba wrote:
Actually I realize i did the math wrong and it's actually 14/19 which makes it 71% but yeah, I think you get my point.
![[image loading]](https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTX2-kRXcPEx2M6fJ2HnddHksjOu_vVEmM0Xfn7qTS41dtuakeCew)
Please continue to fail at how to do statistics. Like there's no way a host would be a bastard like that. No way. BH isn't hosting. I'm not hosting.
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On March 07 2015 04:47 geript wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2015 04:45 Tubesock wrote:On March 07 2015 04:42 geript wrote:On March 07 2015 04:39 Tubesock wrote:On March 07 2015 04:28 geript wrote:On March 07 2015 04:19 Tubesock wrote:
There is risk in cop checking town as mafia. Mafia needs a "confirmed" town so they have an excuse to night kill them instead of any town leading mafia. The risk is that that "check" flips ninja and then it was a 1vs1.
You fucking started talking about how we should kill a ninja first. You hunt ninja. WHY?
Look at the non obvious towns. Kurumi, Sicklucker, Fecalfeast, Batsnacks, me (who Rayne thought was ninja along with Obi), Oats, Onegu, Sepulchre, Slam, and Obi. I bet you thought about the odds of each of those players to flip ninja. Mafia QT probably decided Onegu was a safe bet, plus they could WIFOM how stupid it would be to fake a cellmate. More importantly, they need to protect against a 1 v 1. Getting a cell containing Sandroba was unlucky on mafia's part.
Mafia needs to reduce the odds of a claim flipping ninja. The claim also has to be believable.
Yet, you refuse to believe that there is a chance that none of the top towns are mafia, that all of them are bad or lurky. And also that if one of the top towns IS mafia then they are too stupid to know they have to plan to have an excuse they lived past night 2. Point 1. Complete fail. Confirmed townies are #3 on the list of people to kill. Always #3. Below Roles and people who are able to read the game well and push lynches. Like this is insane. Point 2. I've already explained this. Ninjas on D1 are worse for town than mafia are. It's counter intuitive, but if you remove a Ninja on D1, then you remove 3 KP that is very likely to hit town from the game. That's far more than you get from hitting mafia on D1. Point 3. That's a big list of people who are quite likely to be mafia. GJ if you're town because you're a retard if you believe this shit. Point 4. WAT? Point 5. I think that there are "top town" who could be mafia. Like Robik only started posting after I bugged him. He's also a good enough player to be "salty" after not getting his shot. He's also done reasonably little and isn't following any sort of common sense read that I've seen him use in video mafia. I just don't fucking care to talk about them today because there's literally no point in that right now. I can't lynch Robik today. Kita could be mafia. I really haven't bothered looking at his filter since D1. 10 suspects in a game with 8 nontowns is big? So, everyone should have only 8 suspects with full confidence in 100% accuracy? And funny that's not a town looking for mafia list. thats a mafia looking for ninja list. Outside of the claim people think Sandroba is mafia. Both nk'd towns died scumming Sandroba. But you're fighting and not considering that those people were correct. And if you die along with one of those I would suspect the remainder of being mafia. But they are not showing any indications that they will be saved somehow. You however are "towny" enough to have been given a gun by presumably the town spirit. You are already preemptively providing excuses for how you live. Robik and Kita are not even thinking about that. hahaha that's awesome. I like my ride. I'll get some fuzzy dice for the mirror. You're still not pushing to kill me. I'm clearly being a huge distraction and am trying my best to kill a uncc'd cop power guy who is clearly town. I have to be mafia. There is like no other possible explanation. 100%. I'm not pushing to kill you because I don't think you're mafia. Hence the short bus.
So Sicklucker is 100% mafia. 100%. that's 100%.
there are 3 types of people in this world. Those you can count and those you can't.
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That wouldn't be bastard hosting, he specifically specified that there could be more mafia in the cell and assuming it's random chance is not a huge leap.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
The math would be without replacement so in the 64% range, but that is besides the point 
sandroba I asked you a couple times about your comment about your mom. If you felt it was an awful shot, why didn't you saying anything ahead of time?
Also why did you change your mind about deadline shooting if your mom was the target?
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Okay sicklucker what part I was ignoring you because I having a hard time finding it in your filter can quote it if possible please?
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Huh.
Nobody is very convincing, what a surprise.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Furthermore, aside from sick/tube, which players in particular are shady for voting you and why?
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On March 07 2015 04:02 geript wrote:
AFAIK.
1. Only Toad/Rayn scumread him. And Rayn's been fucking insane this game.
2. Ok. Please explain how this is exactly his meta. Because I 100% know that you haven't actually meta'd him. You're literally just completely going based on what other people who have actually read his scum games have said.
3. Onegu was the obvious vote pre-claim. Like really fucking obvious. A guy who IIRC by your standards was also scumread by Toad/Rayn.
4. Sure Claims mean nothing this game in particular. But town only getting 4 roles on N1 would be insane.
5. Town spirit doesn't know the alignment of Sandro. True. So what. Doesn't mean that they can't figure out his actual alignment by you know, reading him.
Like let's not forget 6:
WHY IN THE FUCK DOES MAFIA SANDRO GREEN CHECK ONEGU THE MOST OBVIOUS LYNCH IN THE FUCKING LYNCH POOL? LIKE WHY DOES MAFIA SANDRO GREEN CHECK THE EASIEST PERSON TO LYNCH IN THE FUCKING CELL?
Like neither you nor Tube are doing anything other than saying, "Oh he does it so he can live for 1 more day. Oh it helps keep KP and shit." Bullshit. Mafia does not remove the person who's at least as likely if not more likely to be lynched from within the cell.
LET ME REPEAT. MAFIA DOES NOT REMOVE THE PERSON WHO IS MOST LIKELY TO BE LYNCHED IN THE CELL FROM THE FUCKING LYNCH POOL
Like that's what Tube/SL are trying to push. That's the insanity of all of this. Like Onegu who we know has an honest opinion on this even fucking said it. Yet both Tube and SL are completely fucking ignoring this entirely.
Recognizing this wifom for what it is, gonna have to say it's the best point.
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On March 04 2015 06:11 sandroba wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2015 06:07 kitaman27 wrote:On March 04 2015 05:10 sandroba wrote:
Breshe ends up agreeing with rayn that my behavior is scummy, even though he himself thought it wasn't scummy to do what I proposed. Wouldn't him as a towny think that I might have been thinking the same thing as him and didn't consider what rayn said like he didn't? On March 03 2015 22:30 Breshke wrote:
Yes I didn't think sandroba is scummy because i didn't think about the device being a distraction when town was in a bad way......I'm town and the good reason (the one you gave about it being a distraction) did not occur to me so I find it hard to scumread sandroba for not realizing something that I also did not. Uhh sandroba, doesn't Breshke eventually come to the same conclusion that you're willing to shoot him for not coming to? uhu somehow I misread that, and that was really what tipped me off well, back to the filter diving I guess. I don't really like either YM or koshi shots tbh.
I didn't go much into it because I didn't think anyone would actually shoot him but, I did mention it. Not sure what's your point though.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
[QUOTE]On March 07 2015 04:56 kitaman27 wrote:
The math would be without replacement so in the 64% range, but that is besides the point ?/QUOTE]
And while this is completely irrelevant, the calculation assumes that 1 mafia was randomly selected and the remaining 3 slots were randomly selected from the pool. In reality, you probably want to assume that 4 players were randomized and rerolled until at least one was mafia, which would be a bit different XD
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On March 07 2015 05:00 kitaman27 wrote:
Furthermore, aside from sick/tube, which players in particular are shady for voting you and why?
Hmm everyone else? LS I've been suspicious since day1, HTS epifany and fecal I didn't do much research on but all seem unremarkable and just popped and and said yeah sandroba for sure scum, so there could be 1 or more in there.
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Last note really quick. Batsnacks is almost assuredly mafia. Second, mafia is 100% between Sandroba and SL looking at the votes and how they went down.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On March 07 2015 05:03 sandroba wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2015 06:11 sandroba wrote:On March 04 2015 06:07 kitaman27 wrote:On March 04 2015 05:10 sandroba wrote:
Breshe ends up agreeing with rayn that my behavior is scummy, even though he himself thought it wasn't scummy to do what I proposed. Wouldn't him as a towny think that I might have been thinking the same thing as him and didn't consider what rayn said like he didn't? On March 03 2015 22:30 Breshke wrote:
Yes I didn't think sandroba is scummy because i didn't think about the device being a distraction when town was in a bad way......I'm town and the good reason (the one you gave about it being a distraction) did not occur to me so I find it hard to scumread sandroba for not realizing something that I also did not. Uhh sandroba, doesn't Breshke eventually come to the same conclusion that you're willing to shoot him for not coming to? uhu somehow I misread that, and that was really what tipped me off well, back to the filter diving I guess. I don't really like either YM or koshi shots tbh. I didn't go much into it because I didn't think anyone would actually shoot him but, I did mention it. Not sure what's your point though.
Not sure if this is response to me or not, but this is what I'm asking about:
On March 04 2015 08:52 sandroba wrote:
Rayn I'm torn about right now, his shot was awful
Why did you not comment earlier about rayn's arguments if you felt this way?
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On March 07 2015 04:59 LightningStrike wrote:
Okay sicklucker what part I was ignoring you because I having a hard time finding it in your filter can quote it if possible please?
I acualy forget it was nothing specific. I was just frustrated that only like 3 people were talking about the claim for the first 24 hours and you posted one thing then left and I asked something but its not specifically important.
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Because he was the only one spewing that nonsense and it didnt look like it was getting much traction. Honestly I thought he changed his mind and wasn't expecting at all that he would come in and shoot. Also I wasn't home at the deadline.
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EPT
