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Ok, since Elyas has blueclaimed, I'm moving my vote off Elyas for now.
So I'm moving it onto Silver, who is my best other suspect.
I could see a Trfel/Silver team, and I could see an Elyas/Tere team, both possibilities look very plausible to me, based on how the recent interactions and votes have gone.
I prefer to target silver, as there are of course some other less likely possibilities for the scum team, and silver's play has still been too suspicious on the whole, whereas trfel has more townish aspects.
The info I requested from other people shows a strong trend toward Silver being seen as scum (1 person has him at neutral, 5 at various levels of scumminess, I still haven't gotten a list from jarjar), which makes me feel further that it's a good lynch choice.
I would like to hear more from jarjar, he's felt a bit absent for day 2, so being paranoid, I worry that on the off chance he's scum, he'd just be inactive because he's not needing to do anything. Also, I'd really like that list Jarjar, before the day is done if possible.
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I have been considering what a silverarte/tere team would do. I thought you didn't like association analysis? Why you up to association analysis now?
I'm finding it difficult, not impossible, but rather difficult.
At any rate, silver and tere's recently lists requests have them scumreading each other, which conforms with their other statements. How silver actually votes would help inform this further.
What would their gameplan be? If they manage to lynch Trfel, and he flips town, then Tere is likely to be lynched next as the one who led on trfel and challenged him to gladiate. This would give them a net 3 for 1, with their 2 night kills taking people out; but it also leaves the final 3 at Silver and 2 others, silver wouldn't get any town cred for joining the lynch on tere, and is the scummiest read overall at the moment. So he'd probably be the day 4 lynch. Which would mean mafia loses.
If they switch the lynch to Silver, possibly bussing silver; then Tere tries to push her claim and get Trfel removed as the obvious next step. Based on current vote inclinations, that would probably happen, so it'd be again down to 3 people, with Tere instead of Silver as the survivor. Which given Tere's poor reputation, still doesn't bode well for mafia.
They could try to leave Elyas alive, and use that to try to get Elyas lynched. But doing so would be a big risk, since it means either Elyas has chances to stop night kills, OR they have a roleblocker who can stop the night kill saves, but there's a vig out there; either of those options could set mafia back enough that they lose.
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All that together means it would be pretty risky for a Tere/Silver team to go on this line of play.
Not impossible, but really tricky and risky.
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I find your response strange and suspicious Trfel, it's awfully defensive and worried, and sounds strangely resigned.
Why would you feel betrayed by town when there's only 2 people voting on you right now?
There's more votes on other people than on you; and the remaining 2 people aren't too likely to vote against you either Trfel, certainly shining has you as the towniest person on his list, and I have no list from Jarjar, but I don't think he's likely to pile on you.
It feels like now, and a little while ago, trfel was pushing too strong defensively when not that many people were actually against him. You normally only see that kind of reaction when it's near or past half the town voting that way, not just 2 people, who could be the scum themselves.
That said, I still think Silver is by far the safest lynch choice for today, as this is only an oddity, but could just be people being/feeling weird, or miscounting how many people are on which wagon.
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I started my post before you typed that last one of yours, it still seems odd that you feel so certain you'll be lynched when there's only 2 votes against you, and the remaining votes are more likely to go on silver than on you.
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oh, my bad
I just noticed, I misread who had and hadn't voted yet.
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So the remainder has Silverarte and JJB haven't voted yet, as opposed to JJB and shining.
Huh, seeing as Silver has you as his towniest listed choice, and tere as his scummiest, I'm not sure my miscount actually changes much about the actual threat you're in Trfel.
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On February 20 2015 05:55 The Shining wrote:
Zlefin, you seem to be showing suspicion of Trfel. Had him listed null before. He has a very extensive filter, a lot to analyze. There have been reads, pushes, willingness to engage, quick retractions when wrong and reading the thread. This is why I town read him.
With a player with a filter this big, with valid scumhunting, are you still null on him? If so, how? If not, where are you leaning on him?
He's still an overall null, he's had some good towny moments, as well as some things over time that make him feel scummy.
It still comes out fairly neutral, it could go either way.
Like I say, I could see a Trfel/Silver team as a possibility, as I looked over how things were done.
I am still quite concerned about Elyas claim, Elyas was my vote up until now, I only changed because of the blueclaim; time is a bit thin, and the posts about Elyas I cited in the previous page show some oddities in how Elyas came to her choices, so I still have concerns about Elyas, I just don't want to lynch yet given the blue claim.
I maintain silver is a great target right now.
I'm suspicious of Tere as well, more suspicious than I am of trfel.
I'm fine with being paranoid, so I see no reason not to have some suspicions on people; which is why I'd like to see more from JarJar.
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oh, and here's the point totals, though I don't think I've changed them since the last time I posted them.
Trfel 0/2
Shining 1/1
rsoultin 1/1 dead town N1
elyas -1/1
jarjar -1/3
tere -1/3
hier 0/2 dead town D1
silver -1/1
tere has negatives, and got the positive point iirc early day 2 (or maybe late night 1) from a strong helpful push which covered a lot of good text in a short period of time. But the stuff on either side of that isn't so impressive.
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On February 20 2015 06:27 The Shining wrote:
Zlefin, I asked because you are voting with Trfel by voting Silver. Just wanted to make sure you weren't voting with a scumread. That's just bad.
Wow, Tere, that's a case. Let me get through it, shouldn't be more than 10 mins. On the surface, it looks pretty damning, as some of it echoes thoughts I had on Trfel with my early suspicions.
I'm not sure what you mean by voting with a scumread.
I changed my vote from my first target, who blueclaimed, to the next best target on my list, as I established early on in day 2 in my town/neutral/scum post.
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On February 20 2015 06:46 The Shining wrote:
K, just making sure. And honestly, upon review, I can see how plausible it is. Ugh.
Zlefin I was just explaining why I asked where you stand on Trfel. If you thought he was scum, you'd be voting with your scum read but you don't. Just wanted to make that clear.
I know it won't make you feel better, but I did earlier mention the possibility of a silver/trfel pairing, I still consider that a real possibility. Really, if Silver is mafia, which I think likely, then their partner bussing them wouldn't be surprising at all.
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no matter who that partner is, I add to my previous post.
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trfel -> I didn't respond to your request for open minded discussion since I wasn't voting against you, so I didn't really see a need to; and still don't.
I'll keep listening to things and discussing some things; but mostly I want to see what comes of the lynch today and the night kill.
While I will of course keep talking and analyzing thing, I feel I already have enough info to figure how to handle all remaining votes (with adjustments based on how everyone turns of course)
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I wish people had set their votes earlier so we had more to work with for longer.
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On February 20 2015 07:19 Trfel wrote:
To those of you who townread Tere for all of the effort she put in at the start of Day 2, why doesn't that argument work for me, too? It's a good argument or it's a bad argument, you can't pick and choose.
I could make a really good case on Tere. It wouldn't be hard to do. I am fairly good at making convincing cases. The problem is, just because I see a convincing case on someone doesn't make them scum.
Maybe my problem is I am too honest. I'm supposed to lie about how strong I think my reads are. Or maybe the problem is that I'm just terrible at making reads. In that case, you are all even worse for following my reads for a day and a half.
I wonder who you're talking to,
by my data, trfel is townread by exactly one person, elyas;
scumread by 3 people, and one neutral with a slight scum leaning (me)
and I don't have jarjar's data yet, but hope to soon.
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On February 20 2015 07:30 Trfel wrote:
Does anyone mind if I go take a nap?
no, in fact I encourage you to. Getting enough sleep is very important for activites like this, and all you need to say for this thread you've already said. Go, rest, relax, recover.
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On February 20 2015 07:46 Trfel wrote:
Would it help if I referenced a post or two that shows Tere seeming to enjoy playing scum?
I don't think it would, the point is useless anyway. So I see no use in it.
my apologies, I mistyped.
EBWOP for the post trfel was referreing to, I meant Tere, not Trfel
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On February 20 2015 07:46 zlefin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2015 07:19 Trfel wrote:
To those of you who townread Tere for all of the effort she put in at the start of Day 2, why doesn't that argument work for me, too? It's a good argument or it's a bad argument, you can't pick and choose.
I could make a really good case on Tere. It wouldn't be hard to do. I am fairly good at making convincing cases. The problem is, just because I see a convincing case on someone doesn't make them scum.
Maybe my problem is I am too honest. I'm supposed to lie about how strong I think my reads are. Or maybe the problem is that I'm just terrible at making reads. In that case, you are all even worse for following my reads for a day and a half. I wonder who you're talking to, by my data, trfel is townread by exactly one person, elyas; scumread by 3 people, and one neutral with a slight scum leaning (me) and I don't have jarjar's data yet, but hope to soon.
to clarify, this is the post I'm EBWOP'ing,
I meant to say tere here, not trfel, in the quoted post.
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you have about an hour jarjar; though I have to recommend a Silver vote over Trfel.
According to Tere's theory, Trfel and Silver are the two scum.
So if she's right, silver is scum.
If she's wrong, there's viewpoints from other people that still point to Silver being scum.
So Silver is more likely to be scum than Trfel, so better to vote Silver.
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On February 20 2015 07:52 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2015 07:48 zlefin wrote:On February 20 2015 07:30 Trfel wrote:
Does anyone mind if I go take a nap? no, in fact I encourage you to. Getting enough sleep is very important for activites like this, and all you need to say for this thread you've already said. Go, rest, relax, recover. With the understanding that you come back before EoD, right?? Or did you really just tell Trfel to AFK EoD because he said all he had to say.
The wagons have already been made, tere made her case, trfel made his defense. Both have been done at length with back and forth. I don't see anything important or new being added about it. more importantly though:
This is fun, but it's still ultimately a game, and less important than real life and health. And sleep is very important for health.
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EPT
