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On January 20 2015 12:35 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On January 20 2015 12:33 geript wrote:On January 20 2015 12:25 rsoultin wrote:On January 20 2015 12:11 geript wrote:On January 20 2015 11:54 Damdred wrote:
Geript, lets say I calmed down and have taken a step back and gazed over your filters in Russian mafia and here. Im comfortable saying the anger here isn't like what happens in Russian where you are just 100% cool until you get caught by what you deem to be an imbalanced game.
I don't see you throwing doubts on people as mafia in this case, you would roll with it and bus your team mate without questioning claims I think.
I think you are towny this game, and shouldn't let my paranoia get the better of me probably.
So that leaves me with staring at (minus town reads)
Breshke
LM
geript talk to me about DP. How sure are you that hes town right here? I know you were pretty sure earlier? 99.5% I absolutely could be wrong about him. I'm just not seeing it. There's too many things that don't really add up for him to be mafia. The NK. Like it looks really bad for him if both LM and Trfel are mafia; I get that. His GB case was meh and I was surprised that he didn't feel about GB how I felt about him at the time. I'd consider lynching him this game only if LM and Trfel are mafia. But I'm pretty sure I'd still want to lynch other people first. Like I see absolutely no reason for him to kill GB there. Like it's a really terrible kill. Plus, he's not in any way afraid to bus as mafia. He did it to Todd or one of the low hanging fruit in the VS game. He and Palmer both bussed the fuck out of Vivax or some other people in MS paint. Like if people are catching a bunch of flack, not pulling their weight, etc. he'll just bus them for cred. He's also more of an egotistical asshole when he's mafia. He's actually been quite tame this game. Like really tame. He also would be significantly blindly follow me on WW than just bus a shitty partner. He'd just lynch GB. He'd find it too fun. You know him better than I (or probably anyone) does... Do you think that my more or less solo push on trfel would have been enough to prompt a buss? Or the pressure on LM? In the Carol game, HF was the mafia RBr, and because of that the scum team put their necks out for him more than they probably otherwise would have. Do you think that would be a factor with DP? Or does he just not care? These are honest questions, not a trap, I promise lol Like I said before, your case wasn't very good imo. So no. Then...why are you sure he's town again, if you don't think there was enough pressure on trfel to merit a buss? Just the NK? You honestly feel he'd kill you 100% of the time?
Because he's playing like he does when he's town. And he's really easy to read early on. Like I get what he's saying.
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The best way I can describe it is that reading DP is alot like really good sex. At first you aren't always sure where it's going, but once you're in you know it's going to be fucking sweet. He's abrasive and an asshole. It's just who he is. He speaks his mind. So you naturally don't want to like him at all because he comes off as a jerk. But really he's a nice guy.
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He's a lot like me. He's really transparent if you bother to read him. He doesn't bother with the niceties and bullshit. You just know when he's bullshitting.
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@Breshke. I want you to do vote analysis Pre-switch, pre claim. I'm actually interested in what you think there.
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Damdred (2): rsoultin, LightningStrike
jarjarbinks (4): Breshke, Damdred, GlowingBear, LoneMeow
GlowingBear (6): geript, TheWarWaffle, DarthPunk, jarjarbinks, The Shining, Trfel
Let's assume this is true for a second. We can color JJB blue I guess since no one else has claimed. Technically, Trfel and LoneMeow could both claim here I think since they haven't posted but meh. If LM is blue, he might not come off JJB so quickly. I think definitely as cop he's significantly less likely to come off, but whatever. Voting wise, Rsoultin makes sense. IDK if she'd be willing to bus that early. Hard to tell. Breshke I thought was town yesterday, not sure I see a real reason to change that. Damdred could be mafia; it makes sense with the GB kill. 2 mafia on the short stack seems ok enough. Shining I forget my read on him yesterday. The argument vs JJB seemed odd (knowing the setup). I think that makes more sense, but usually mafia don't vote back to back. IDK. Seems like DP is the obvious scum if both of them are. That's just really hard to accept.
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TBH any non-Trfel medic here should claim on D3. Makes them guess who to RB or are forced to RB LS and guess.
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Like claiming medic now would literally just be awful play.
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On January 20 2015 13:55 Breshke wrote:Show nested quote +On January 20 2015 13:52 Damdred wrote:On January 20 2015 13:48 Breshke wrote:On January 20 2015 13:41 Damdred wrote:On January 20 2015 13:38 Breshke wrote:On January 20 2015 13:13 Damdred wrote:
Shining did a decent amount of work post flip and had some decent thoughts. Its generally a townie trait to jump straight in and get thoughts in during the night to me, some of his other things had a nice push to it as well.
Its one of my weaker town reads but I doubt I lynch him tomorrow.
I agree with the bolded part. Out of your town reads which two are you most sure on and which two are you least sure on or even list them all if that's easier because i think you're town and that means you have to be wrong on one of them. Most sure of Rsoultin and Geript at this point, least sure of Breshke and Dp. Shining is somewhere inbetween the two sets. I thought i wasn't one of your townreads wasn't i on your PoE lynch list before? Right now I have five town reads and its all the unconfirmed people in the game I am 100% wrong on someone. If tre and LM flip scum DP looks the worst but doesn't necessarily make him scum. your posts look ok tonight so I have to re look at you. Shining could be scum and rs could be bussing. So yea its not a fun spot to be in Could you explain why if Lm flips scum with trefel DP is most likely. I think geriept said this aswell but then seemed to say DP would bus if his mafia partner wasn't pulling his weight which i think could describe LM although im not sure how he is usually.
Helped push town read on Trfel, helped push mafia reads away from trfel, helped steer lynch away from LM. Meh case on GB which is less telling than feeling the bad lynch there. I think he had a ok case earlier than GB; I forget it though (maybe the push on Rsoultin). Vote wise it makes the most sense. Although, similar-ish things could be said about me. I'm still pissed I didn't default to LM. I even had WW on my don't lynch today list. I feel really bad about that.
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On January 20 2015 14:11 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On January 20 2015 14:02 geript wrote:
Damdred (2): rsoultin, LightningStrike
jarjarbinks (4): Breshke, Damdred, GlowingBear, LoneMeow
GlowingBear (6): geript, TheWarWaffle, DarthPunk, jarjarbinks, The Shining, Trfel
Let's assume this is true for a second. We can color JJB blue I guess since no one else has claimed. Technically, Trfel and LoneMeow could both claim here I think since they haven't posted but meh. If LM is blue, he might not come off JJB so quickly. I think definitely as cop he's significantly less likely to come off, but whatever. Voting wise, Rsoultin makes sense. IDK if she'd be willing to bus that early. Hard to tell. Breshke I thought was town yesterday, not sure I see a real reason to change that. Damdred could be mafia; it makes sense with the GB kill. 2 mafia on the short stack seems ok enough. Shining I forget my read on him yesterday. The argument vs JJB seemed odd (knowing the setup). I think that makes more sense, but usually mafia don't vote back to back. IDK. Seems like DP is the obvious scum if both of them are. That's just really hard to accept. Can you explain more on Damdred? How does that play out in your head? I'm asking because he didn't go with the GB wagon to save himself, which struck me as town, but if there's a scenario where he could be safe doing that, I'm considering him pretty much confirmed town when I shouldn't.
Damdred wasn't being lynched on D1. Doesn't really matter where he puts his vote if mafia. 2 people who have little to no thread pull (one of whome has almost none) isn't going to get someone lynched.
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On January 20 2015 14:28 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On January 19 2015 06:26 Half the Sky wrote:
Day 1: This Final Hour
Damdred (3): GlowingBear, rsoultin, LightningStrike
jarjarbinks (2): Breshke, Damdred
LoneMeow (2): Trfel, jarjarbinks
GlowingBear (3): geript, TheWarWaffle, DarthPunk
Not Voting (2): The Shining, LoneMeow
Currently, Damdred is set to be lynched. Day 1 ends in at 22:00 GMT (+00:00).
Reminder to make sure to unvote before voting, if you have already voted someone.
Remember, voting is Mandatory. You may NOT abstain.
Mmm. Well, see, this was where we were at before GB jumped on JJB, too. I mean...I wouldn't say it was entirely outside the realm of possibility for Damdred to be lynched? I know that this wasn't as close to EoD, though.
That count makes me pretty sure JJB isn't mafia. Both mafia voting the third would be ridiculously awkward. I don't think it says anything otherwise though if LM is mafia. Maybe Shining is less likely to be mafia, maybe. I've seen 2 mafia both be late voters. Like if LM were voting anyone prior to that it would be more useful.
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Ok people. Let's do something else here. I don't think we're going anywhere and we have time to spare. Today is the start of D3. There's no cop check. Go reread. I'm going to bed. Let's stop actually playing this fun game of iffen land off in preflipassociationville. It's a neat thing to devolve into for a bit, but if we don't actually read/think about who we want to lynch then we almost assuredly will lynch town because lazy. I'll read shit tomorrow when I get up.
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On the face LM looks the worst to me, but I need to actually read and think. Like, supportive shit from Trfel's filter assuming mafia is nice, but we should easily be able to find arguments that stand on their own.
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So Damdred was hard bussing you JJB?
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Like I'm already having a bad day. I know you're a newbie, but I really can't get my mind past you saying that a Damdred was hard bussing you.
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I will say that Damdred's filter looks exceptionally worse in skimming it. Shining is town; then mafia then town then mafia. LS is in the same boat. Las is mafia for trying to get a meta read on Damdred. Then it's the reason he's obviously town. I really don't get it.
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Like JJB literally just was 100% wrong. Damdred never really heavily pushed JJB. He procrastinates on reading him for like half the day then lackadaisically tells people to vote for him. Like there's never even a good reason for Damdred to even say the shit he is other than his flipfloppery on GB (town-mafia-town).
Plus JJB is literally claiming mafia with Damdred. Idk. I'll think about this more but I can't fathom a reason JJB says anything like that as town.
In the least, we lynch Trfel and have more time to think about it.
##vote Trfel
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On January 21 2015 09:03 DarthPunk wrote:
OK I'm here all day on and off cause im not working.
Gonna read the game again. If anyone wants to chat feel free.
Read Damdred and tell me what you see.
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You really have to take the wifom out. GB flipping town doesn't give credibility to anyone. It doesn't really lessen credibility either. It's a NK. Like we're the people pushing him pushing him for good reasons? Does GB have any valuable reads we've missed out on now knowing he's town. That's what matters.
Regarding the Damdred wagon, that's a quite interesting point. Just like mafia tend to not lynch claimed blues or in the least tend to move off their wagon. Mafia tend to not help lynch vets. So if Damdred is town it makes sense for him. Like if you assume for a second that DP and I am town. That same vote count makes GB look awfully scummy.
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On January 21 2015 09:37 rsoultin wrote:
Unless your point geript is that mafia does tend to pick on the fumbling newbies in this game as the easy mislynches xP Which I would have to agree with from personal experience, limited though that is.
No. My point is that what you're reading me town for makes me nothing. Like if I'm mafia I could be trying to get a blue lynched. Like that's such a god awful reason to read me as town. Like read me town for what I've done in the game that matters. Leading or not leading a vote on town/mafia isn't alignment indicative. Last minute shenannies or no do not make me or anyone else anything.
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Fake claiming cop wouldn't necesarily be bad play by mafia. It's also mechanical play to some extent.
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EPT
