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On January 18 2015 06:35 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On January 18 2015 06:31 Damdred wrote:
Trfel, that's a whole lot of words for saying you have a couple of town reads rest null reads but you don't seem to have any scum reads? unless I overlooked it.
Are you scum with no scum reads and not knowing how to go about it? Sorry, you're right, that wasn't clear enough. I try to play with really high standards for scumreading someone. I stated this in my last game if you need me to dig up that quote. I am most suspicious of LoneMeow and a bit suspicious of DarthPunk. At the moment, my lynch list would probably be LoneMeow, then The Shining, then Breshke, then DarthPunk. However, I'm not going to worry about (potentially) policy lynching until the deadline is much closer.
Is it strange that he puts The Shining and Breshke before DarthPunk on his list? His first sentence makes you think he's scumming DarthPunk, then he puts the shining and breske inbetween. Probably nothing, but strange in my mind.
Not the obvious fixation on LoneMeow in his filter.
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[QUOTE]On January 18 2015 07:57 Trfel wrote:
[QUOTE]On January 18 2015 07:53 GlowingBear wrote:
[QUOTE]On January 18 2015 07:37 Trfel wrote:
[QUOTE]On January 18 2015 07:27 GlowingBear wrote:
War Waffle probably town[/QUOTE]
Why do you say this?[/QUOTE]
He is going against two vocal players, which is kinda a suicidal move for mafia to do.
The only motive he has to do this is if his partners are in danger and he wants to push a mislynch.
Which I doubt is the case.[/QUOTE]
I suppose I can see this.
At the same time, WarWaffle seemed to provide many more reads in the previous game. I know this game hasn't been going for as long yet, but there has been more posting here. And last game he had lots of time issues as well (I know he said he had some in this game, I think, but they should be less than last game).[/QUOTE]
This quote makes me think that if waffle kinda scums someone but then slowly backtracks that the person he is "slight scumming" is probably town. Probably a method to shed some suspicious light on someone without actually putting himself out there.
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On January 23 2015 09:00 Breshke wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2015 08:54 jarjarbinks wrote:
This is about Trfel voting Geript at the beginning.
Do you guys think that Trfel would try to bus BOTH of his mafia bro's? I would definitely hope not. Especially right out of the gate. I could see him bussing one and maybe joining a lynchtrain on the other, but trying to kill off both your buddies seems messed up to me.
If geript turns mafia, PLEASE don't let me be mafia with Trfel lol
But anyways, what are your thoughts on this rsoultin? Think that possibly gives any towncred to geript if LM does turn scum? Definitely an if statement lol Scum is told the setup so they would have known there was two investigative roles so i think it is possible if not likely that scum busses both partners (maybe not the roelblocker) because you would want to distance from your team.
That makes sense. Since he was a goon then, we might expect to see LM as the other goon over the roleblocker.
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Man Trfel literally did everything to defend me in this game. Like in almost every post he mentioned me. Makes me wonder if/when he knew I was tracker. It would make more sense to hard defend me if I wasn't tracker. Then I would be more likely to die and he could claim "knowledge" or whatever. If he knew, I would think he would have wanted to lynch me.
Maybe I wasn't as obvious as I thought? I do post very strange posts often xD
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On January 23 2015 09:17 Breshke wrote:
@JJB am i correct in assuming you scumread LM?
What do you think of the fact that basically no one disagrees with this?
Feel free to answer this aswell RSo.
It does bother me. I could definitely see why mafia would abandon LM based on his inactivity. If LM is mafia I could see LM telling them it would be ok if they bussed him.
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On January 23 2015 09:21 geript wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2015 08:54 jarjarbinks wrote:
This is about Trfel voting Geript at the beginning.
Do you guys think that Trfel would try to bus BOTH of his mafia bro's? I would definitely hope not. Especially right out of the gate. I could see him bussing one and maybe joining a lynchtrain on the other, but trying to kill off both your buddies seems messed up to me.
If geript turns mafia, PLEASE don't let me be mafia with Trfel lol
But anyways, what are your thoughts on this rsoultin? Think that possibly gives any towncred to geript if LM does turn scum? Definitely an if statement lol You have all my wat.
I was saying that you look less suspicious. You want to lynch me for that?
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On January 23 2015 09:00 Breshke wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2015 08:54 jarjarbinks wrote:
This is about Trfel voting Geript at the beginning.
Do you guys think that Trfel would try to bus BOTH of his mafia bro's? I would definitely hope not. Especially right out of the gate. I could see him bussing one and maybe joining a lynchtrain on the other, but trying to kill off both your buddies seems messed up to me.
If geript turns mafia, PLEASE don't let me be mafia with Trfel lol
But anyways, what are your thoughts on this rsoultin? Think that possibly gives any towncred to geript if LM does turn scum? Definitely an if statement lol Scum is told the setup so they would have known there was two investigative roles so i think it is possible if not likely that scum busses both partners (maybe not the roelblocker) because you would want to distance from your team.
Do you think this correlates with how Rsoultin went after Trfel so hard so early?
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On January 23 2015 09:26 geript wrote:
"if geript turns mafia, PLEASE don't let me be mafia with Trfel"
Roles are already out. Him randomly pushing me for shitty reasons doesn't mean anything. Literally nothing.
It was a joke. I was trying to point out a reason for you to look more town.
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Whatever.
I see my posts are going nowhere. I was just trying to help. I'll be back on later if people have questions about anything I wrote.
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On January 23 2015 09:31 Breshke wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2015 09:25 jarjarbinks wrote:On January 23 2015 09:00 Breshke wrote:On January 23 2015 08:54 jarjarbinks wrote:
This is about Trfel voting Geript at the beginning.
Do you guys think that Trfel would try to bus BOTH of his mafia bro's? I would definitely hope not. Especially right out of the gate. I could see him bussing one and maybe joining a lynchtrain on the other, but trying to kill off both your buddies seems messed up to me.
If geript turns mafia, PLEASE don't let me be mafia with Trfel lol
But anyways, what are your thoughts on this rsoultin? Think that possibly gives any towncred to geript if LM does turn scum? Definitely an if statement lol Scum is told the setup so they would have known there was two investigative roles so i think it is possible if not likely that scum busses both partners (maybe not the roelblocker) because you would want to distance from your team. Do you think this correlates with how Rsoultin went after Trfel so hard so early? No not really because im reading RSo as town and speculating on how the mafia team would act isnt really a reason to reconsider that. Like they might bus more but they might also just hard defend because wifom. Why do you ask this do you have other reasons to think she is mafia?
Nope lol She could fool me any day of the week though lol
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##Vote: LM
I think they are keeping me around because I am less value to town than the rest of VT's. I am a confirmed town but that's it. I haven't really helped town at all because I suck at this game. If I wasn't tracker I would have been dead day 1.
If I was mafia, I would keep the tracker like that too.
I'm guessing they are banking on me getting reads wrong and mislynching people to the end. It's pretty humbling, but that's my guess on their strategy.
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Geript do you just get angry at anyone that scumreads you? You do realize that for everyone else there is still a chance your scum right?
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On January 24 2015 08:37 geript wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2015 08:31 Breshke wrote:On January 24 2015 08:25 geript wrote:On January 24 2015 08:24 rsoultin wrote:
Bresh is right. Scum probably did plan to CC originally but LS' red check threw it off. LS is the obvious kill Night 2. I don't find it significant that JJB is still alive. But if they were planning to CC his check, it's just as good to CC on D3 as it is on D2. Like it's actually better in many cases. How is it better. They just trade 1 for 1 still at best. Pretend you're medic right. Someone claims cop with a tracker already claimed; you know one is lying. So if you lynch the redcheck, you learn which one is lying and who to put the save on at night. So not only would you not CC JJB's claim, you also wouldn't CC LS' claim. In the same way as mafia, same rules apply except that they have to claim being rb'd. Perhaps they were intending to CC JJB's tracker claim directly, but that's less likely to be effective.
Hmm I don't understand this... So LS red checks trfel. Trfel flips scum so if this imaginary medic were real, then the medic would therefore save LS. LS died so that means medic isn't around...right?
I would think it would be smarter to try to save LS and see if no deaths occur over most likely getting your cop killed just to "double check" that his red check wasn't mafia trying to sway everyone. Worst case you lose tracker and know a mafia. Best case you save cop and know mafia. Definitely worth the risk I my mind because Cop>Tracker.
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On January 24 2015 08:37 geript wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2015 08:31 Breshke wrote:On January 24 2015 08:25 geript wrote:On January 24 2015 08:24 rsoultin wrote:
Bresh is right. Scum probably did plan to CC originally but LS' red check threw it off. LS is the obvious kill Night 2. I don't find it significant that JJB is still alive. But if they were planning to CC his check, it's just as good to CC on D3 as it is on D2. Like it's actually better in many cases. How is it better. They just trade 1 for 1 still at best. Pretend you're medic right. Someone claims cop with a tracker already claimed; you know one is lying. So if you lynch the redcheck, you learn which one is lying and who to put the save on at night. So not only would you not CC JJB's claim, you also wouldn't CC LS' claim. In the same way as mafia, same rules apply except that they have to claim being rb'd. Perhaps they were intending to CC JJB's tracker claim directly, but that's less likely to be effective.
Hmm I don't understand this... So LS red checks trfel. Trfel flips scum so if this imaginary medic were real, then the medic would therefore save LS. LS died so that means medic isn't around...right?
I would think it would be smarter to try to save LS and see if no deaths occur over most likely getting your cop killed just to "double check" that his red check wasn't mafia trying to sway everyone. Worst case you lose tracker and know a mafia. Best case you save cop and know mafia. Definitely worth the risk in my mind because Cop>Tracker.
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oops my bad. I thought my compy blocked me.
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On January 24 2015 08:37 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2015 08:00 jarjarbinks wrote:
##Vote: LM
I think they are keeping me around because I am less value to town than the rest of VT's. I am a confirmed town but that's it. I haven't really helped town at all because I suck at this game. If I wasn't tracker I would have been dead day 1.
If I was mafia, I would keep the tracker like that too.
I'm guessing they are banking on me getting reads wrong and mislynching people to the end. It's pretty humbling, but that's my guess on their strategy. I just think that you have trouble getting read as town, bro. After this game we can definitely talk about that if you want. ^^ Easier lynches tend to be kept around because scum needs town to mislynch. Give me your thoughts? The JarJar brain juices help me think lol.
Actually, someone's post on how killing LS before me made more sense than my argument for keeping me alive. Having a 100% town is pretty helpful, despite my not so good reads sometimes lol
I'm uncertain on the damdred vs geript battle going on... if one of those was scum, which one would u choose?
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LM- I've never played with you. People keep claiming that your more inactive this round. Is it true? Do you have any reasons for being less active?
DP- Can you clarify what exactly makes damdred a better lynch than LM? Was it just because LM started posting last night? Did your spat with Rsoultin make her more scum, or did you not getting anything out of that?
Rsoultin- Have you learned anything from your inquiries of the past 24 hours? Did your talks with Geript and DP make you think either was more town or more mafia?
Shining-Besides me, who are 3 people you consider most town at this point?
Damdred- Who are 3 people you consider most town at this point?
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Sorry I missed EOD guys. I should have been here. I don't know if I would have switched on not. LM definitely stepped it up trying to survive there.
I like geript's analysis above. I'm having some issues with quotes and my compy, so I'm not going to quote It but it is on this page.
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Geript would your scum team be Breske Damded right now?
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Ya I haven't used it this game. That model was based on EOD votes, dead peoples votes, and who dies at night. I first figured that if I could get enough games into the system, I could figure out if say voting for a town that gets lynched makes you any more likely to be scum or not. I was thinking about doing something like seeing how claiming or including votes that switch later affect a person's alignment as well, but those require more digging into every game and would take more time.
I only had 2 games in the system then and 3 now. I've been kind of lazy, mostly because it seems like all the people that play on here were very against it. Statistics are supposed to be used to help support things people normally see in the games. Since my numbers were going against common perception, I figured it was either:
You guys were wrong
OR
My model sucked some big balls.
I went with my model sucked some big balls.
I think if I had time to put in like 30 games to the model I might have something. But that's going to be a while. My 3 game model has it like this (baseline is 2/7 because theres two scum out of 7 people):
Me: 43% mafia... lol
Breshke: 41% mafia
Rsoultin: 31% mafia
Shining: 30% mafia
Everyone else: 29% mafia
This is without a +/- 3% buffer.
But like I said before, I'm not using this at all and for good reason. If I did, I would have still been genuinely confused because of the very large train Day1 and GB voting for me... lol
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EPT
