New Years Eve Party Mini Mafia - Page 59

On January 08 2015 07:01 Breshke wrote:
Eden why aren't I on either of your lists?

First is liancourt. Most of his d1 posting by far is pushing LightningStrike, then ObiWanShinobi. Then he ends up voting with both on VayneAuthority, because VA wasn't trying d1. This is an odd sequence of events to me because (1) I don't think that's the strongest case to be made on VA and (2) liancourt claims to have only given up on pushing LS and Obi because the pushes weren't getting traction, which should mean he didn't stop suspecting them, and yet he ends up voting for the same guy as them. I know that even if I had failed to convince people to kill my suspects, two of them voting together on someone would have given me a great deal of pause. liancourt just lets the kill happen.

On January 12 2015 06:58 Trfel wrote:

ObiWanShinobi (0): batsnacks, lalipop
Half the Sky (0): sicklucker, DrParnassus, mderg
LightningStrike (1): liancourt, batsnacks, Breshke
lalipop (4): liancourt, Breshke, sicklucker, DrParnassus, ObiWanShinobi, Eden1892, batsnacks
DrParnassus (2): Oatsmaster, liancourt, lalipop
Oatsmaster (4): Eden1892, mderg, Eden1892, lalipop, LightningStrike, Breshke
liancourt (0): LightningStrike, lalipop

Oatsmaster has been lynched!

On January 10 2015 15:45 Eden1892 wrote:

First thought is LOL at trying to do vca on this. Two wagons, one town, the other unknown, clear majority, only outlier vote is confirmed town b/c she was shot right afterward. No layups

In situations like these where the main wagon is town and we don't know the other wagon, we first want to look at the rationale people gave for their votes. The first person I notice is myself, because I didn't give any, because I'm a donkey and I slept through EOD and only managed to slap a fast vote down to avoid mod sanction. No johns, I suck, sorry guys.

Instead I'm going to look at the other people who coasted on the lead wagon.

First is liancourt. Most of his d1 posting by far is pushing LightningStrike, then ObiWanShinobi. Then he ends up voting with both on VayneAuthority, because VA wasn't trying d1. This is an odd sequence of events to me because (1) I don't think that's the strongest case to be made on VA and (2) liancourt claims to have only given up on pushing LS and Obi because the pushes weren't getting traction, which should mean he didn't stop suspecting them, and yet he ends up voting for the same guy as them. I know that even if I had failed to convince people to kill my suspects, two of them voting together on someone would have given me a great deal of pause. liancourt just lets the kill happen.

Second is Oatsmaster, his case on Vayne is also not the correct case IMO. It's weird that it's the opposite of liancourt's, and that in the course of discussing this read neither one of them ended up arguing with the other about it. I guess maybe he didn't have to push as hard because Vayne became the lynch fairly quick, but it seems like he pretty much parked his vote and left.

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Other notes:

- sicklucker and LightningStrike are probably town, they've both been pretty active and have pushed their lynch hard. I don't think either of the cases they made on their targets d1 were actually good, but I think they were genuine, which is all I need to see to make a read.

- Half the Sky looks reasonably good to me as well. The one thing irking me a bit is that she read me as town for making a "detailed case" on Vayne when I don't remember ever doing so, but it's obvious she cares about the direction of the game. Her interaction with sicklucker about the past game seems sincere enough - I know it's not directly relevant to this game, but I think the entire conversation reads town, go open her filter and find that bit and read for yourselves so you can see what I mean - and she's been rather open with her thoughts.

- batsnacks is sorta vulnerable to the same logic that implicates liancourt, but batsnacks still pushed reasonably hard on Obi while voting Vayne and tried to get a last-minute vote on Obi instead of Vayne. This strikes me as more of what I'd expect a townie to do if his primary suspect were off the table: go after a secondary one while taking his chances at getting the primary suspect killed instead. I also think he's been a lot more forthright and sincere than liancourt, so I find myself okay with batsnacks, even though to some extent he does the same thing that liancourt does.

- Obi already called out liancourt for the big thing I noticed earlier, so he's town in my mind for now. Obi does end up criticizing the VA lynch while staying on it, but if you read his filter it seems fairly clear that he got caught with insufficient time to figure out anything else to do due to out-of-game constraints. It's not like he peaced out from the thread and coasted. I can give him a pass on that.

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That's all I feel like doing right now, I'll do more later on but this seems good enough to start with.

Town: me, Obi, HTS, SL, LS, bats
Mafia: Oats, lian
TBD: Breshke, lollipop, derg, Doc