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On January 09 2015 09:51 rsoultin wrote:
Lol, what would I ask you, Tube?
Why did you scumread WW? It's in your filter. Why didn't you pay attention to his claim? It's in your filter. Would you answer differently as scum or as town? Nope. This is why I'm not asking, and probably why most aren't.
Though I can ask and will ask for your reads...if you had to pick only two people out of all of us left, who would you lynch as scum? That's the answer I'm trying to work out for myself right now. ^^ I'll post here once I narrow it down and get my thoughts organized.
Without question it's -Celestial-. I'm on him now, I even made a pretty post I'm so proud of with a baby seal trying to hide in it.
I don't know what you'd ask. You were asking where I was, so I was hoping that meant you had some questions.
What do you think about the latest interaction between Celestial, ExO and I?
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oh sorry I missed you wanted 2 people.
I'm on Celestial.
My other 3 suspects are JarJar, Gumdrops, and Silverarte.
My reasoning on the 3 are weaksauce but I am not going to push on them till D3, and by then if they haven't started bleeding town I'm going with my least town read one of them. Which I'll figure out after either Celestial, LS, or Shining die today.
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On January 09 2015 10:35 -Celestial- wrote:
Also...of course...nothing personal rsoultin. Its just how I've seen your overall posts go. I know we've discussed it in bits and pieces over time but as a whole I'm still suspicious.
Anyway, goodnight.
Good case, much better than your other one. I'll do some more reading and consider your case. I'll be back with questions.
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I don't get anything from her list post here. I don't think there is anything memorable in it. Where is she scum hunting? When is the point in the game where your only posts are list posts inappropriate? It's a big long post (which people town sometimes) but where is any point where she shows indepth concern or thinking on someone?
I definitely have problems with lacking conviction the longer the game goes. I feel every one of her reads will turn into a sheep vote of one form or another. Just like Lightning but she says nice things that make way more sense than he does.
On January 08 2015 14:35 Silverarte wrote:
Well! Soultin took pity on me and told me about the Filter function. Let me tell you...that helps so much. (Who knew that going page by page out of all of these was a 'bad' idea? XD)
So, I think first and foremost...I owe a recap of what I think everyone is!
The Shining: You, my friend, are getting scum votes all over the place! And I'm not entirely sure what to make of you just yet. Part of this is certainly my inexperience, but I felt you defended yourself relatively well here in your second post. The first ones you gave flipped back and forth, but it looks like you're backing your decision this round. I'm neutral, leaning towards towne.
HTS: You asked my motivations and thoughts on what's transpired so far. Personally, my first thought is 'Crap, we're getting picked off!". In regards to Waffle, you're right, I sheeped (I believe this means when we're following the votes of others rather than something else, right?). I did this because the cases being made were more reasonable to me at the time. When I was scumming ExO and Gumdrop, I wanted to give them the opportunity to respond before I condemed. I can't say I tunneled, but the sudden silence on Waffle's part made me more suspicious than anything.
As for how I feel about you? (Sheesh I wish we didn't keep missing each other! Well, if I survive til the weekend, I have that off? =D) You've been very consistent and straight forward. You are a straight on town read for me. What are your assessments currently?
Also, in answer to your last post you popped up...I have never played this game before. I am a complete newbie and this is game number 1. (Soultin had been talking about Mafia games continually and I told her I'd try it out). So if it's hard to read me, believe me when I say I find it difficult to read all of you. I'll keep trying though. =)
LS: You are a constant poster, and points to you for that. You do a great job keeping other posters engaged and getting people talking and questioning. I looked through your filter through the beginning. (talk about a read!). Currently, looking through your posts, i'm reading a lot of generalization and little to no specifics on your reads at the moment. I'm growing steadily suspicious of you, particularly with your votes following the 'sheeping trend' (hee...I like that phrase), but I'm seeing little to nothing else. Can you tell me how you're feeling on the people here in, in what way you're leaning and why?
JarJar: I'm not sure what EOD means, but yes, that whole crazy paying the bills thing is biting me in the rear at the moment. Now then...let me bump back to replying to your post at me. That being said, I'm not sure if you just called me out on being scum or not. So, I'll respond as though you did and if you didn't? Weelll...bonus information? =D
I'm discovering one of the hardest things about defending yourself from that view is activity with posting. To compensate, I do my best to post when I come home and before going to work. THAT said...my vote on Waffle was indeed sheeping with Rsoultin. She wrote a good defense and looking back through the posts (which I was going page by page at the time...gosh I love filters) it made logical sense to me. And for me, that matters. That said, in defense against being scum, while I sheeped a vote, I have not tunneled towards anyone and I've been open and honest about what I thought and why.
So let me direct a question or two towards you. You aren't out of the suspicion waters yet with me! =P Following what you said about voting LS, what is your reasoning for it? What ranks him above Tube or Shining?
Gumdrop: I have to admit, I'm more than a little concerned about you not posting,my friend. When you show up, share your thoughts! Who's suspicious? Who isn't?
Celestial: You're been prolific in your posting, and it's led me to think town for you at first. The throwing away of your vote (as you put it) still puts a redmark on you to watch. I think my biggest fret is the free town passes early, straight to the vote...and then I'm not seeing much here about trying to contribute for the town and it feels floaty about-ish. Is Rsoultin your biggest target right now? Why?
Tubeshock: I'm just neutral on you. You put thought into short bits of words. I'd be really interested in knowing what you think of everyone at this point too. Are JarJar and Shining still your top picks?
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On January 09 2015 10:52 -Celestial- wrote:
Oh and I'm sorry I can't answer more questions tonight. Thing is I've been actively writing and getting bombarded with stuff for something like six hours straight now by a bunch of people (I started addressing stuff at like quarter to 8 or something, its ten to two in the morning right now and I've only moved for a twenty minute break to get food). I'm exhausted and my mind is totally fatigued. I badly need a rest.
I'll try to make sure I've not missed any by checking over tomorrow. Goodnight.
No worries, we have more than 1.5 hours before EoD for you to answer them 
Good night.
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On January 09 2015 11:19 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 11:01 Tubesock wrote:
I don't get anything from her list post here. I don't think there is anything memorable in it. Where is she scum hunting? When is the point in the game where your only posts are list posts inappropriate? It's a big long post (which people town sometimes) but where is any point where she shows indepth concern or thinking on someone?
I definitely have problems with lacking conviction the longer the game goes. I feel every one of her reads will turn into a sheep vote of one form or another. Just like Lightning but she says nice things that make way more sense than he does. Well I try and ignore the tone of certain players when they post. 27NB runs into the same problem to use another example. I have already seen in other games people have been wrongfully read for their tone alone. I look for asking questions, which she does do, but it shouldn't be the only thing after some time. I look for things beyond that at certain points of the game. D1 this is okay, and maybe D2, but after that, I would expect some prioritisation of scumreads. But that's just me looking at my first game here. Looking more in depth at that post for example, the word "recap" is generally speaking, a red flag. Scum tend to repeat things sometimes without taking things further. Yes she should be updating her reads, but "recap" makes me wonder as I read through if she's doing just that as she gives her reads. Which is why I think you are getting the impression that you are, Tube. I'm aware she's short on time, she appears short on time to play this game...but that's not alignment indicative. So it is hard to determine if it's coincidence or convenience.
That's more or less why I think D3 I'm going after the scummier of the three lurkers. Plus, D2 vote information and the night kill will hopefully narrow things down. I'm expecting JarJar to bleed if he's town, as his sister keeps saying he's smart and capable.
I know Rsoultin and ExO suspected Celestial at night1 and some of his reaction to the lynch made me wft him for a second. He kept saying how he wasn't sure how the wagon started, and that he was going to investigate it. He isn't acting like he's figured it out yet, nor is he really trying. It's not very towny to need to be a wagon to finally start doing something.
I think it's scummy because I also think the WW lynch was fairly simple.
Some of us were talking in thread. Silverarte and gumdrops were called out for doing a "Hi I'm here post but won't do anything" post. I called for Silver several times. She at least answered (with a list post which I'm totally fine with). She showed up, and demonstrated reading of the thread. No scum hunting though.
People go to bed, I'm up for a couple more hours and when I went to bed I pressure voted Gumdrop. He finally showed up.
At this point Warwaffle was really the only extreme lurker left. Rsoultin pressures. Silver and LS jump on for their reasons. At this point I thought it was still a pressure vote just with 3 people on it.
Then WarWaffle posts. Several people ask questions. He makes this bad bad post.
TubesockJihad begins. Which was wrong but he was scummy enough to keep everyone on him.
Seems pretty simple and straight forward to me. Most everyone was actively asking questions, and I felt that Celestial wasn't. Rsoultin and then ExO started asking him questions, and Celestial didn't do any scumhunting he went to pure defense.
I don't think I can blame him for defending himself rather than scumhunting though. Although, that isn't necessarily the tact I would take.
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I was scum reading JarJar also. I'm pretty sure I mentioned it in a later post when I started my celest focus. I'll look for it.
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Bah I can't read. You're asking at eod. I was town reading Celestial then as we had an exchange when he said he was going to jarjar. Jar being my listed #2, I didn't really care about it.
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On January 09 2015 11:59 rsoultin wrote:
...was that an answer to my question? What does scumreading JarJar have to do with Celestial being the only one voting for him?
I see that you said you were willing to shenanigan onto Shining or JarJar before the blue claim, but only them. So the blue claim wasn't enough to get you to go for either of your other scumreads, who both had votes? Shining especially would have been a good choice at the time.
Celestial was a town read whom I already felt I knew his reasoning. Celestial and I talked about his lynch vote. Gum was a lurker, so I wanted some sort of an answer, and I was already scumming Shining.
I didn't believe the blue claim. I wasn't going to move. Warwaffle would have had to come back to the thread and hard claimed, or at least 1 (most likely it would have taken 2) people to jump off. I don't think I would have followed Silverarte off. I'm not even sure if LS jumped would I have. Bad play I get it.
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I'll quote some posts, one sec.
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On January 07 2015 01:51 Tubesock wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2015 01:43 -Celestial- wrote:Ok I've taken the time myself to read over the evidence that LS presented and...actually its pretty convincing. Although I think meta reads, especially based on just one game, can easily be manipulated he IS playing this very similar to the way he has in the past and it IS from three separate games so...yeah well done there. I can't in good faith vote LS anymore. His playstyle is just too consistent between townie games there and it has severely shaken my confidence on it. I don't really know playstyles very well of course but those links were fairly convincing. Of course LS could be deliberately selecting evidence but it doesn't feel like that, it feels more like a genuine attempt at convincing. Not a D1 lynch for me anymore. I'm going to take a chance and remove my vote from there and put it on someone else. Its between WW, Shining and jarjar for me, as per my reads earlier. I agree with Tube, WW isn't the best candidate. His opening post was weak and he's said nothing since then but that isn't enough for me to lynch him at this early stage. I'd like to see more from Shining before I could put a vote down there. So I guess I'm going with jarjar for now since I have to vote for SOMEONE and frankly I really don't like his posting at all, it looks really scummy; was also the second highest read on my list so... ##Unvote
##Vote: jarjarbinksOn January 07 2015 01:18 Tubesock wrote:
-Celestial-
Why is Rsoultin more scummy than Gumdrops, Trfel, Silver, and me? I get why you town ExO so hard, and HTS but not the next 3 on your list? I think I'm still somewhat tainted by rsoultin's original impression on me. I really, really didn't like what appeared to be bluehunting (the reasoning for which I posted a little while back, I can quote it if you like). Though she has improved somewhat since that I'm still wary. Gumdrops I've just flat out not seen enough from to make much of a judgement call. Same with Trfel. But both of them posted something that appeared to be reasonably thought out so slight leanings towards town. Trfel also stated in advance he wouldn't be around for a bit and Gumdrops just seems awkward about posting. I can't condemn either of them to scum for that. Silver I have literally no idea about, as I posted. I'd appreciate anyone else's thoughts because to me it just appears to be a mix. You didn't start great which is why I leaned you towards scum, but I didn't find your opening to be as scummy as rsoultins was and you've both improved in my eyes to the point where you're both back to neutral. But since rsoultin started off with slightly more damning posts you're slightly more in the townie direction than she is. Ah, I see our differences. I tend to disregard to some extent a person's first few posts. You appear to keep an even weighting on all of them. I do want to point out that you had 3-4 posts that were just about rsoultin's gender, or SC2 mafia or whatever. If I said them I think you would have scummed me even worse. Yet, I really only had the 1 post you didn't like, and it still pertained to the current game. But anyway, I do think you're town even if we don't agree on your town reads so much although we do agree on the scums.
I don't want to criticize someone for being on one of my possible shenany wagons. If I pushed him off, wouldn't that make it more likely that if shenanies occured it wouldn't be on one of my preferred wagons?
In retrospect, I should have absolutely moved to The Shining. Absolutely. I felt there was 0 chance waffle would flip town. The only two people who explicitly mentioned not moving from a claim were from 2 of my other scum reads. That didn't exactly instill a motivation to move.
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EBWOP:
The nested quote above is a quote responding to Celestials Jarjar vote.
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On January 09 2015 10:52 -Celestial- wrote:
Oh and I'm sorry I can't answer more questions tonight. Thing is I've been actively writing and getting bombarded with stuff for something like six hours straight now by a bunch of people (I started addressing stuff at like quarter to 8 or something, its ten to two in the morning right now and I've only moved for a twenty minute break to get food). I'm exhausted and my mind is totally fatigued. I badly need a rest.
I'll try to make sure I've not missed any by checking over tomorrow. Goodnight.
So, from what I read from your posting. Your mafia team is:
LightningStrike
The Shining
Rsoultin
You town Jarjar on his "drastic improvement" D2. Can you expand on why? Also, I may totally disregard it anyway, so don't go building a huge case, summarize. But, there are others you need to convince.
I absolutely sympathize with how exhaustive the game mafia is. I apologize if you're town.
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On January 09 2015 22:32 Half the Sky wrote:+ Show Spoiler +At this point in time, my top lynch choice is LS, with JJB behind him, Celestial and Gumdrop, though the last one is essentially a policy vote. Celestial isn't looking too good right now to me (which I'll explain in my next post) either after reviewing him last night, but I want him to answer some questions before deciding where he falls. I didn't like JJB's attitude D1, and I said earlier today I didn't like his read development (page 32) and in his response to me on Shining, this made even less sense to me: On January 08 2015 13:58 jarjarbinks wrote:
Can't find the quote to back me up on this...Shining said something I really liked, right before I voted for him ironically. I swear I'm super good at this game lolz. Then he changed his vote to Waffle and I facepalmed. I still blame myself for that. I think Shining blamed me too later. Apologies. Went through ExO's filter. I'm seeing nothing but pointed, honest questions, so I'm still having a town read on ExO. Low postcount high content, but he's striking me the same way as LoneMeow, progressive questions where he does conclude where someone is scum. He's still looking for information. Tubesock is a null - generally speaking, being tunnelled on someone is considered non-alignment indicative. His posts on the NKs was thought out however flawed it was though from what I could tell of the filter, I looked at the exchange between Tube and Celestial however, and Celestial had explained twice over why JJB was looking better in his eyes, where Tube had expected him to still make a case on JJB, even after that. So that tells me he's not reading or selectively reading. + Show Spoiler +
Silverarte, I had her as null leaning town as I felt her reads were well laid out, though I wanted to see more from her in her reads. I understand her points on Celestial re: Shining and Rasputin, but I also didn't like how she brought out the Tube quote with JJB, considering again, going through Celestial's filter, he HAD said that JJB was looking better to him post-flip. So, at face value it reads as if she's taking things out of context. So still null in the end.
Shining is looking better to me, I feel he has some good thought out explanations. I feel he's stepped it up a bit since post-lynch. I did like some of his points against Celestial, which tells me he's reading and sniffing things out.
I still can't find where he rescinded his scum read on Jarjar. Where?
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Don't give up LS.
HTS, I think I found it. The first one, he says
I was convinced by jarjar until I saw his post-flip analysis which comes across as a lot more genuine as an attempt to help out town. I'm still highly suspicious of rsoultin's motives, with the fact that she didn't remove that WW vote sitting pretty on top of the pile of reasons for my suspicion, despite the explanation.
the next post he says:
I've got to eat right now but if you want me to I can run through my full thoughts on jarjar from the past couple of days when I get back if you like.
I responded with do whomever you want, but give us something.
I believe he was and is not willing to scumhunt. I wanted to see anything that wasn't something that was an easy sheep like what any LS case would be. I read his first quote as Jarjar looks better than he was before. His mafia team sounded pretty unconfident.
It's frustrating. I don't like that I feel town has to pressure some of these people to actually scumhunt (celestial, silver, gum). LS maybe doing weird bad shit, but at least he was trying and would engage with people (until a couple posts ago anyway).
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On January 09 2015 23:09 Half the Sky wrote:Tubesock, the quotes in question. You can also go to page 4 of his filter. Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 05:39 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 04:44 Tubesock wrote:
-Celestial- You're the towniest of the town so far. Is there anyone you can make a really strong case on and push for?
Who is your likely mafia team? Sorry, missed this. [...] I was convinced by jarjar until I saw his post-flip analysis which comes across as a lot more genuine as an attempt to help out town. I'm still highly suspicious of rsoultin's motives, with the fact that she didn't remove that WW vote sitting pretty on top of the pile of reasons for my suspicion, despite the explanation. Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 07:25 -Celestial- wrote:
I'm going to need to work this out though before I can give you one. jarjar I didn't like primarily off the back of his D1 stuff, which I felt was largely useless and poorly thought out. His attitude post-flip though has been a LOT better and frankly I've not really been thinking ahead to the D3 lynch yet because we still have more than 24 hours of this to go, plus the full night to start thinking about D3 lynches. Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 08:21 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 08:15 Tubesock wrote:
Celestial can't be bothered to make a case on Jarjar??? His number 2 read in all his scum list posts???
When I asked him to make a case, I said make a tough one that you stick your head out. And he starts one of LS??? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA I literally just stated that my case on jarjar was shaken by his massive improvement after the flip. Or did you miss that part? Or are you deliberately ignoring it? You asked for a case and since you were bloody well doubting the LS read I thought it would be handy for you to convince yourself on it. If you don't want that then fine. Did he say explicitly? No. But that was the impression I got from reading his quotes.
The impression I was getting was he wasn't willing to make any stand of any kind. I would think that if I had no real reads or suspects by now, I would do something to change that rather than sit back and do nothing.
He's being lazy or already has the game figured out because he's mafia.
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On January 09 2015 17:03 jarjarbinks wrote:
OK quick rundown of the why on this post. I'm worried I might miss the EOD because of work because its been pretty busy as of late xD Christmas is definitely over! Chances me missing it ARE slim though.
I'm giving my top three lynch targets. They are the same as before. I'm attaching percentages to them. This is % chance they are mafia in my book. 27% (3/10 +/- 3%) is the lowest % you can have. I'm attaching mini-normal % increases based on how the dead voted and giving myself a 3% buffer for on my opinions of their play so far.
1. LS- 46%. 14% increase based on dead votes and a 2% increase based on today's play and the day 1 claim. I still sympathize with LS, but that's why I'm using equations over my feelings. One of the cases I saw with LS in also had everyone on LS's balls for almost the whole game (at least based off votes).
2. Shining- 39%. 9% increase based on dead votes. 0% on my opinions of the 2 days play.
3. Tube Sock- 38%. 11% increase based on dead votes. 3% decrease based on play. The early waffle vote on tube hurt tube a lot. I also wonder if waffle wasn't under pressure, if he would have kept the tube vote. But I have really liked tube's play today. I liked his theory, however flawed it was.
My estimate is very flawed. I only have 2 past cases of voting history to go on as of now. I also haven't really attributed any points towards good voting. But it's all I've got, besides my opinions.
If I make it back before the votes, count on me switching my vote from LS to a bandwagon I agree with IF my vote is alone AND I can use my vote to lynch someone on this list. I'm providing my %'s of everyone else if you are curious, not explaining them though because its 3 in the morning. Hope this helps understand my thoughts.
4. Gumdrop 33%
5. Silverarte 33%
6. Celestial 32%
7. Rsoultin 31%
8. Exo 30%
9. HTS 28%
I would like some context with your numbers. Currently, Celestial is my top scum pick. If I were to % it, it would be something like 90%.
It's obvious you do some sort of equation (your sister said so, and this post basically says so). Is 46% high for a Day 2 vote? I'd assume these numbers will all go up Day 3? I mean for your top scums?
I'm asking from the perspective realizing that our approaches are different, but if I thought my top scum was a 46% prob., I'd be freaking the fuck out.
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Well shit.
You die tonight anyway.
##UNVOTE
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ExO is a fine save. In your shoes I would have done the same.
you do see where we are coming from?
You post a list with a strong scum on waffle (he was 4th).
Then you and I talk and we both agreed it was a policy lynch.
War posts and I go apeshit. He softclaims.
The closest thing to real doubt you showed was something along the lines as "we need more from you warwaffle". I don't see that as an action to get people to move off him. It also led me to think that maybe your scum read really didn't change.
After lynch you talk about how you always thought it was silly. Yet, you did nothing to stop it. I get not trying to convince me, but uh there were others on that wagon...
So, to me those events looked like you were positioning yourself to look good without really committing yourself to it. Something mafia does. Lead town to miss lynches.
Even after the miss lynch, I felt you needed pressure to actually contribute to town and scum hunt. I don't think that's a towny trait. Do you not see where I'm coming from?
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* EBYOP
forgot the To -Celestial- bit.
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EPT
