EPTsorry for all the typos and the length. its hard to be clear and still explain all the theory behind the vote analysis
Newbie Mini Mafia LX - Page 5
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
sorry for all the typos and the length. its hard to be clear and still explain all the theory behind the vote analysis | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On January 08 2015 09:19 jarjarbinks wrote: You DO get to see the votes before EOD. You saw the votes right before the end? Why did you switch your vote? You bolded "you DO get to see the votes right before EOD". Why wouldn't you switch? You ranted about how bad a waffle vote was.[/QUOTE] Kinda being a donkey here bro. Misquoting yourself now? On January 07 2015 06:36 The_Templar wrote: Day 1 Vote Count jarjarbinks (1): LightningStrike (3): ExO_, Gumdrop (0): TheWarWaffle (4): rsoultin, LightningStrike, Silverarte, Tubesock Tubesock (0): ExO_ (1): Gumdrop The Shining (1): Half the Sky Not Voting (2): The Shining, jarjarbink Currently, TheWarWaffle is set to be lynched. until deadline. The votecount WHICH I SAW BEFORE EOD JUST AS BOLDED ABOVE when I was in the thread and Trfel was saying he didn't want to lynch Shining. Your turn to answer questions. On January 07 2015 02:14 jarjarbinks wrote: List of Scum: #1: Shining #2: Tube #3: Silver #4: Waffle #5: LS Did this list of reads change prior to the end of the vote? You don't even mention LS leading up to the lynch but now you're going on about it. On January 07 2015 08:51 jarjarbinks wrote: I don't know what to think about warwaffle. I'm guessing he's lying about the power role. Its enough to keep my from voting for him though. My vote is for the shining. And I already did It in the thread. Still suspicious enough to pick him in my top three and give another option to others who also were suspicious of him (sorry about the "she's" before) Why wait so long to cast your vote? 9 minutes before the deadline? You were in and out of the thread throughout the day. You're clever enough to vote for Shining, force him to switch to the WW vote, and come out looking rosy because you didn't vote for the blue-claimed townie. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On January 08 2015 07:31 The Shining wrote: I have already explained my train of thought on ExO. Let's remember that ExO had WW as a scumread, as well. Where's he been since the flip? My reasoning wasn't so much as WW being scum as the fact that right I after I voted Exo, Jar Jar voted me. That put me up to 3 with WW's 4. WW's drive-by softclaim was something I did NOT want to lynch for. My options would've been vote LS to tie and WW dies, anyway. Leave my wasted vote on ExO and WW dies, anyway. As Mafia, if I thought WW was dying anyway, why would I add myself to the wagon? Once Jar Jar pushed me to 3, I was afraid one of the WW or LS votes would end up on me. Yes, I'm admitting I voted to counter my wagon. In my eyes, it makes more sense for me to save who I know is town rather than a softclaim that I had no faith in. Tube's tunneling on WW and pushing me towards him right before EoD didn't help me stick to my guns on being against WW's lynch, either. After WW flipping blue, I have to say I don't have much faith in LS being Town. I mentioned before that I wasn't a fan of the "let's all be friends, we're all town" mentality. It wasn't until the thread was given meta examples of LS's past town play that I started reading LS as null, slightly town. After the flip and deciding to re-read LS's posts, this was a little troubling to me. Thanks for the follow-up. It is your last-minute vote on WW that had me reconsidering my scumread on you, as you can see in the final paragraph. Since theoretically there are at least 3 scum still it seems like you should be secure enough in the lynches if you're scum to not have to vote on WW yourself. The thing that makes me twitch is this post right at tick: On January 07 2015 09:00 The Shining wrote: After re-reading, I felt less and less certain that WW's lurking and big post was helpful to town and more certain that that post, along with the last post claiming a blue role, was there just to mislead. Changed my vote in voting thread from ExO to WW. ...It's a justification for your last minute vote that doesn't line up with your prior concern about lynching WW or your explanation above. Why would you even feel the need to justify yourself with players (JarJar) jumping onto your train last minute? This feels like you just made this up. Completely on the fence here. Can you clear this up for me? | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
I really don't like the lying thing. It rubs me the wrong way. People being too concerned about being "consistent" (yes Celeste, that's at you, though damn these newbie games and figuring out what is noob and what is scum) and how their actions appear to others rubs me wrong. Meh. I'll have to think on you, Shining. You seemed very wishy-washy at the beginning, plus all the excuses, especially with your first two posts. The analysis seemed like a place holder with no conclusion. Something to look busy without committing. Can you please explain to me how Celestial's explanation of blue-hunting lines up with what you thought I was doing, and link the post from Silver that made you change your mind? I don't like LS and JarJar is bugging me because his giant screamy post (apart from being directed at me, which is convenient actually since I know him best) is just way out-of-character for him. My brother isn't terribly aggressive normally, especially with such obvious bias and leading words meant to make you form your opinion the way he wants. But, eh, LS...he's hard for me to read cause he gets scumread every single game, you know? Meh. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On January 08 2015 10:49 rsoultin wrote: Yeah...that was the feel I was getting. I really don't like the lying thing. It rubs me the wrong way. People being too concerned about being "consistent" (yes Celeste, that's at you, though damn these newbie games and figuring out what is noob and what is scum) and how their actions appear to others rubs me wrong. Meh. I'll have to think on you, Shining. You seemed very wishy-washy at the beginning, plus all the excuses, especially with your first two posts. The analysis seemed like a place holder with no conclusion. Something to look busy without committing. Can you please explain to me how Celestial's explanation of blue-hunting lines up with what you thought I was doing, and link the post from Silver that made you change your mind? I don't like LS and JarJar is bugging me because his giant screamy post (apart from being directed at me, which is convenient actually since I know him best) is just way out-of-character for him. My brother isn't terribly aggressive normally, especially with such obvious bias and leading words meant to make you form your opinion the way he wants. But, eh, LS...he's hard for me to read cause he gets scumread every single game, you know? Meh. EBWOP: That was directed @Shining | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On January 08 2015 10:41 jarjarbinks wrote: Kinda being a donkey here bro. Misquoting yourself now? The votecount WHICH I SAW BEFORE EOD JUST AS BOLDED ABOVE when I was in the thread and Trfel was saying he didn't want to lynch Shining. Your turn to answer questions. Did this list of reads change prior to the end of the vote? You don't even mention LS leading up to the lynch but now you're going on about it. Why wait so long to cast your vote? 9 minutes before the deadline? You were in and out of the thread throughout the day. You're clever enough to vote for Shining, force him to switch to the WW vote, and come out looking rosy because you didn't vote for the blue-claimed townie. You responded about 2 hrs before EOD. Not just before EOD. Just before EOD would be like around 6 your time when you got off from work, which I talked about before In my original post. Phone not in the car when you got off work? That was my list of reads before the votes. When I voted LS had 3 Votes (Shining was an LS vote). Shining had two. Waffle had four. Switching off waffle would be a good idea. I picked Shining over LS, but I regretted it because by doing that I caused Shining to switch to Waffle, hence ended much chance of switching off waffle. Honestly, LS was low on my list. Waffle claimed a power role. Am I missing something? Good catch on me being in and out of the voting process. Snow day! I was home. Time to see me be a complete hypocrite about EOD stuff. Building a compy, which turned out to be very difficult! Tried to use my broken compy to stream youtube and get this website. Very frustrating, but I did finish the compy at about 11 ish at night. I would read something about the thread, then look for one of the random parts I threw around the kitchen that I needed. Then forget what part I needed then looked in the manual. I'd get confused, look back at the thread and repeat. at around EOD, I was upset everything was taking so long, and rather cynical about this thread. As time wore on, I switched youtube videos, and started trying to figure out why my compy (the one I was making) wouldn't turn on. I think I checked a few posts an hour before EOD thinking that was EOD and worried I hadn't voted yet. Turned out I was an hour off, so I didn't worry about it. About 45 minutes ish later I saw I was late, read less than what I should have. Confused about lack of votes. Saw there was another thread. Looked at the votes. Picked Shining for reasons I already talked about. Went back to hitting my head against the wall and trying to find random manuals. Finally got somewhere. Saw warwaffle die and angry posts. Saw you saying I needed to step it up. Ranted to myself with much more cynicism. Figured I'd try to make "scumreads" on the killers. Wrote yours. Realized it was 2. Tried to go to sleep and couldn't. I liked my post on you! Sure there isn't much facts, but there's enough for me to see the transitions working if you were mafia. When I saw you bolded my phrase "saw the votes right before EOD" I was happy. To me that's a slip up. You saw them 2 hrs before, which I alluded to a few sentences before that post, so in my mind it is clear that my phrase there was referring to very close to EOD, like around when I voted. I don't look rosy. [/QUOTE] ...yeeeeah. Cause I'm going to go ahead and bold things to make it easy for you. Bud, I was highlighting the facts. Seeing the vote count before EOD was a fact. You had maybe 5% of that post that wasn't a story you concocted to fit you presupposition that I am scum. I can do that, too. For everyone. Clutter up the thread with BS for each and every player: why SO and SO could be scum from the mind of Rsoultin, now I'm going to write you a story. That's why it is called paranoia. What I don't get, JarJar, is this moaning about how you should have voted LS unless your reads changed and you just didn't mention it. Shining was your top scumread at the beginning of the day. You can say you were at home all day building your computer and that's why you didn't have time to vote earlier, but that's kinda weird, don't you think? Home all day. Can't vote. Huh. Why are you being an ass? Seriously. Of the two of us I'm more likely to be an ass than you, Lt. Chuckles. Wiseass, sure, but pure ass? Lol. Were you ever going to make your promised rage!cases (you raging makes my mind boggle) at anyone else? Or was that all a smokescreen? | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
Yes, my phone was in my car. It was off or it would be dead. I turned it on, turned my car on, and then obeyed that nasty thing called the law and didn't touch my phone while driving.  Regardless, it was after six, so it wouldn't have mattered if I waited for it to come on and spent time sitting in the parking lot catching up on the thread, now would it? Do I need to give people a play-by-play of my day? Does anyone care apart from JarJar since you can't verify it anyway? | ||
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rsoultin
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You had amazing things on all five people on WW last night. If you're really town you might even have something that can be used later. Please. Dazzle us. Two down, three to go. That was a nice ten-minute post on your new keyboard btw after asking for your rages.  Lol, doesn't it suck that I know things like...your personality? How fast you type? xP | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
Think about those cases you don't have long and hard while you do.Also, I can tell because your typing is cleaner now than when you were on your phone, bro. Really, it's not rocket science. Mine is also cleaner when I'm not on mobile. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
Someone with a bit more neutrality than me should evaluate his play right now cause I am falling into a dangerous OMGUS mentality with him. He could just be overzealous...and normally I think it's towny for people to challenge strong voices in the thread. Outside opinions? | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
The last minute vote switch on you is a decent scum play I think, cause it forces you to jump ship to a wagon town knows is scum. Course, people should expect you to regardless, imo. And yes, he was strongly hinting that Trfel was night-killed for his vote on you. Personally...with Trfel not even feeling comfortable giving reads Night 1 I'm inclined to think the reason he died was different. Still worth looking at his comments (I respect his opinion) but, yeah... It does seem like a set-up to push you. Or at least vote you at a later date without being too strong on his actual read. | ||
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rsoultin
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EBWOP: It forces you to jump ship to a wagon scum knows is town. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
Eh, lol, yeah it was part joke and mostly for a reaction. I've played with HTS enough that I feel fairly confident I can get a good read on her? But I've never seen her play scum so who knows... And Silver was just a question for clarity. Meh, I don't think you and I can be very neutral regarding JarJar. Yeah, I'll just have to think. You're not reading town for me yet but I can see the possibility of your being town more than I could Day 1. Not actually a good thing when I'm having trouble getting scumreads this game >< LS...the comment on his just blatantly sheeping one person in his scum game is true...bleh. Like I said, he gets scumread every game, is the problem. And the fear of lynching blues in his other games but not this one really does bother me a lot. I could probably be convinced to vote that wagon if it becomes one. How about Gumdrop? I assumed he wasn't here for the flip, but his post suggests otherwise: On January 08 2015 08:10 Gumdrop wrote: By pissing away my vote, I effectively voted for the lead. The lead for the entire time was WarWaffle. When he declared his role... it made things troublesome. Was he mafia that was trying to save his own hide? Was he actually a powerful role? Everything reeked of desperation and it wouldn't matter if he was scum or town, he would have done the exact same things to try to save himself from being lynched. I didn't agree with some of his thoughts on his only large scale analysis of peoples alignments, but thats neither here nor there now. I was paralyzed with inaction, because I didn't know what to do and none of the options seemed like good ones. Taking a look at the votes, and based off the information on how tie votes are decided that Trfel gave us, it would have taken at least two people to make a not WarWaffle lynch happen. Looking at the vote tallies from yesterday though, the last second vote changes interest me more than anything else. JarJar and Trfel, neither one of you really explained why you swapped over to join the Shinings lynch mob. You both just gave vague explanations. Can you explain further please? | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
I honest to god saw him mentioned somewhere, went wtf I forgot he was even playing, realized he'd posted once early and was townread for it, then pressure voted him as a placeholder. Trfel and HTS sheeped me. Could have been wrong there, too, but the case I did make was against Shining. (If I'm wrong 90% of the time, lol, you shouldn't sheep me no matter how good my cases sound xP). Celestial's issue with me was I made a case against Shining but kept my vote on WW -shrugs-. I fail to see how this escaped you. | ||
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rsoultin
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There was only one vote on him when I was pushing my case, and no-one was biting. That left you and WW. So I left my vote on WW. | ||
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rsoultin
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But I think it's early with so many questions still floating to make a push, at least when I don't feel that strongly about any of my scumreads. I don't know how likely it is that you're scum unless Shining is. Lynching a blue claim from you is still mind-boggling to me, though. You explained it. I know. Just having a hard time wrapping my mind around it. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
Maybe I'm the nutball, but with Day 1, that means Night 1, Night 2, etc. if the guy is really blue he's probably going to kick it. Let the scum sort him out and lynch him if he lives too long and continues to act scummy. | ||
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rsoultin
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Gumdrop was right. That's something town or scum could claim. | ||
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