|
On January 07 2015 08:00 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2015 07:56 Tubesock wrote:
Okt, can you explain why LightningStrike is scummier? No, I guess I think that TheWarWaffle is probably a bit scummier than LightningStrike. At least LightningStrike has shown activity. Show nested quote +On January 07 2015 07:57 Tubesock wrote:
I'm also assuming you are building a case on me right? No, I'm reading your filter and trying to decide if you are town or scum. There is a big difference.
Just wondering if I should respond to your post prior to this or wait.
Ok, so you don't want to lynch WarWaffle, do you have an alternate? I asked about LS simply since he's where you are parked.
|
On January 07 2015 08:05 The Shining wrote:First, two things to help clarify. One, I'm a he. Man. Dude. Whatever. XD Second, I mentioned yesterday it was my weekend, I go back to work tomorrow. Normally, I sit around on the computer on day but family has been kidnapping me for the first weekend I've been available since New Year's so I apologize for my lack of activity. To HTS: I answered that for you already. You asked where I was getting the "blue-hunting" from and maybe it was just a misunderstanding on my part, but when Rsoultin posted this: Show nested quote +On January 05 2015 10:39 rsoultin wrote:On January 05 2015 10:34 Silverarte wrote:On January 05 2015 09:47 ExO_ wrote:On January 05 2015 09:35 rsoultin wrote:nope, not implying she's scum, just implying she's awfully anxious to make sure we don't think she's scum  which is actually less an implication and more an outright statement given my question. aren't you interested in the answer, ls? Correct me if I'm wrong, but she just made one post right? And that's your basis for "awfully anxious to make sure we don't think she's scum"? Seems like that's reading into things quite a bit more than is reasonable. I'm much more highly suspicious of you for trying to through some nonsense suspicion on someone else. Also, I'm not sure here. It makes me curious when someone is energetically after scum right at the get go. Could they be? It's possible. I wonder myself It would help if you clarified who the "someone" you're talking about is and what you're actually wondering. Could they be what? At the time, it felt to me like that was her trying to get Silver to elaborate and get a possible free read. If Silver responds with "I'm talking about so and so, could they be -insert power role here-?" it could've given clues as to who is or isn't. Once Silver elaborated that she meant "It makes me curious when Rsoultin is energetically after scum right at the get go. Could they be scum?" I realized I was wrong and that is why I haven't mentioned much of it since. As for sheeping ExO's town read and giving him a scumread in the same post, I was only going off of ExO's own remarks. As he said, Mafia loves to give free town reads to people. At first, HTS was only leaning scum to me for avoiding WW's line of questioning. Once HTS responded, I wasn't quite convinced she's leaning town until ExO gave her a townread and blatantly said she's not a good Day 1 lynch. Since then, she has built decent town cred. How convenient would it be for ExO as scum to side with someone he KNOWS is town? Also, since meta was brought up, I would say throw mine right out the window. As it was mentioned, that game I played as Mafia was very inactive as it is and I never take those very seriously at all. This is quite literally my first time playing an actual serious-setting Mafia where reading posts and getting reads is important, as opposed to sitting back and letting people give themselves away.
So, you still read ExO as scum and HTS as town now? Has ExO's play in the last 5 hours or so changed your thoughts? Who is your vote?
I have a hard time seeing ExO as mafia. He pushed the thread in early D1. He seems to have logical arguments and thinks about what he's posting.
|
On January 07 2015 08:06 Trfel wrote:
Please, respond as soon as you would like.
My vote is currently on The Shining, reasons stated previously as inactivity, poor play, and sheeping rsoultin and Half the Sky.
I guess I don't know how without repeating myself. WarWaffle has inactivity, and poor play. He also has a huge ugly post which at least The Shining doesn't have and the points that The Shining has against him he is trying to explain.
WarWaffle, is just uhhhh I'm a blue role, and can't post. SEEEEYAAAA.
To me the WarWaffle evidence far outweighs anyone else. I agree that The Shining looks scummy, he's my 3rd lynch choice as a matter of fact which I've mentioned before. I think we just disagree on the weight of the scummy actions.
|
I think you and Gumdrops are totally wasting your vote. The main wagons are LS and WW. The tertiary is you of course so, that would be dumb.
Can you explain more about why you think WW is a policy? I'm trying pretty hard to show it isn't.
|
Damnit. Would have been nice to at least vet claim so you could be CC'd.
|
I took that from a plynch to a lynch lynch. That's my fault.
|
I think I was definitely the most vocal about the WarWaffle lynch. I've been pretty transparent with why I voted him. I'll explain why I continued to vote him after his claim.
I saw his claim and immediately focused on two things. He can't possibly be counter claimed and he's already setting up excuses not to post. I think I was tunnelling too hard and it's pretty likely that no matter what he posted I would have scummed him harder for it. Bad play I get it. I felt like he'd just survive the night for any amount of WIFOM reasons and I would most likely waste day 2 tunnelling him again.
I decided his claim was bullshit. I think many others also had that feeling. What I should have looked at is those people were not on his wagon. Unfortunately, there were two people who did explicitly say it's a bad idea to lynch a blue claim. Jarjar and The Shining. Two people I previously cited as scum. I interpreted that as 2 mafia trying to save their buddy.
|
JarJar. I've been your #2 scum for a longtime. You've "yelled" at the others.
Why have you not come at me yet?
Why did Trfel die? I think we will find more answers here than we will in voter analysis. More specifically, I'm going to concentrate on answering that question while you guys continue talking about voter analysis. We need both.
I'll be here for another hour or two, then bed, then much of the day tomorrow.
|
Can't sleep. EoD timing for me is 3pm so I think I'll be awake around 10 or 11.
I'd like to talk about the possible nk's targets. I don't understand nk picks so, I really want feedback on my reasoning. If I were scum, I think I'd kill the biggest threat. This would be either the best players (hardest to lynch) or who are on the right track.
-Celestial- is universally townread at least till the lynch. Probably a doc save. Bad choice. The next towniest people I think are including their targets:
2. ExO_ His only real scumread was LightningStrike and to a lessor extent WarWaffle.
3. Rsoultin Scumming The Shining and I think LightningStrike, also fine with killing Warwaffle
4. Half The Sky Scumming LightingStrike and The Shining
5. Tubesock murdered Warwaffle and voiced next targets as JarJar, The Shining, and LightningStrike
6. Trfel no targets. sheep voted The Shining. Repeatedly defended LS and The Shining.
The rest of you are either lynch targets or lurkers.
In a world where mafia picks the nk based on reputation of play (assuming -Celestial- would get the save), I have a hard time believing that Rsoultin or Half The Sky live. HTS in Carol was amazing. She had 3 jailkeeper (I think that's the generic term for her role) saves, then layed a trap, hard claimed, and then within seconds it seemed mafia conceded. It was BEAUTIFUL. Rsoultin had gorgeous cases, AND a great thread presence with influence. Her reads were not 100% correct but she had a very strong role in winning that game. Trfel helped win the game because he was able to cop check a towny and get it out before he was killed n2 and he had a good case on our first mafia kill that tipped the scales for the lynch.
Of those three nk targets (Rsoultin, HTS, Trfel) Rsoultin and HTS are strong towns in this game. Trfel hasn't really done much. He is a basic lurker. I don't think he'd be a threat.
Unless The Shining and LightningStrike are town. Every single majority read towny is either building cases or scumming hard The Shining and LightningStrike. Those two are buried. They will flip town. Which means get rid of the guy who could stop those miss lynches. Which goes back to Trfel.
On January 07 2015 07:06 Trfel wrote:I guess I don't like lynching TheWarWaffle, LightningStrike, or The Shining. Yay. Not super convinced that any of them are scum. So I suppose that I prefer a lynch on The Shining over the other two, since The Shining has been reasonably inactive, despite constantly saying he will play more. I like some of the points rsoultin brought up (primarily the constant references to posting more soon... I get it the first time, or the second time, but now it seems like stalling to try and avoid getting lynched... kind of mad that I didn't notice that for myself). The other reason to vote The Shining is to sheep Half the Sky and rsoultin. From my experience, both are very good players, and they think that The Shining is mafia. They have also kept up with the thread better than I have. Is he saying he's basically townreading WW, LS and Shining? But due to not being caught up, he's going to sheep Rsoultin and HTS? It explains his ##Vote: The Shining+ Show Spoiler +
I realize that the timing of this vote switch seems really bad. I am still suspicious of LightningStrike, and am perfectly fine to explain why I voted for him in the first place. The primary explanation is that I wanted somewhere to place my vote, in case something happened and I didn't end up moving it by the deadline (I know that I am town, so I will take a ~25% chance of lynching scum over a 100% chance of a town!Trfel being modkilled, and a vote is easy to move). The reason I voted for LightningStrike is because he asked a lot of generic questions ("Hey you, what are your reads, with explanations please"). I don't remember him doing much questioning in the past, but I could be wrong. Still, asking primarily generic questions makes it seem even more like he is trying to appear useful while really doing nothing. In addition, he likes to use pretty fast meta reads, and didn't provide reads on any of the people he has played with before for quite some time. I feel that it was longer than I am used to.
Anyway, those are my thoughts at the moment. I'm switching votes to The Shining. Meanwhile, I will start looking into other lynch options (open to suggestions), and will be waiting for feedback and pushes.
I'm getting the impression that Trfel basically townreads TheWarWaffle, LightningStrike, and The Shining. He soft defends them but also talks about how he hasn't really read the thread, is not super confident in reads etc. He's not going to waste his vote so he knows he needs to be on a legitimate wagon (unlike Gumdrops on ExO_ for instance). Presumably, he sheeps his strongest townreads Rsoutlin and Half the Sky.
Moral of the story, if The Shining or LightningStrike are mafia, then one of Rsoultin, Half The Sky, or ExO_ would be dead. I don't see a world where they would nk Trfel. My bad play murdered a claimed role so I think it would be stupid to nk me.
And for the love of God, when I ask you what you think about my case/thoughts be more forceful on why I'm wrong. We fucking killed a blue. The only person who really articulated it being bad was Trfel. No one on WarWaffle moved. Even after the claim, people still said it was a probable fake claim. WarWaffles play was so scummy most of you disregarded his claim. None of you thought the lynch was bad enough to do a yelling all caps post telling us we are idiots for lynching a town/blue.
|
On January 08 2015 22:41 rsoultin wrote:+ Show Spoiler +That is not a bad post there, Tube. Trfel was reluctant on all the wagons, but didn't have a better option to present the thread Day 1. I still think he could have been targeted as a possible role...but I'm not nearly as comfortable with a Shining lynch as I was earlier because his play has improved significantly, despite the lying at EoD.
Also @Shining...I'm not really ruling out anyone on being possible scum based on a flip right now. I'm just saying I probably would automatically look to LS if you flip scum. Not that I think you flipping town clears him. His play troubles me. The main reason I'm not 100% sold on him being scum is his scum game (if this is a scum game for him) has gotten much less timid since the last time when I pushed his lynch.
Tube...you're talking about why you think Trfel was killed, suggesting that LS and to a lesser extent Shining probably aren't scum, but you haven't said anything about who you think is scum. Do you have anyone in mind?
That's the problem I'm having. I am thinking about 4 suspects but it's all very weak. I am also reluctant to just go jihad again on bad foundations and that last post is the foundation. I feel really strong about it, but I felt stronger about WarWaffle than I have ever (In my massive 3 case career in mafia).
|
I didn't even consider him being a role target. Mostly, because I just don't have any idea on where to start with role hunting. So, stuff that I don't have understanding on I typically ignore.
|
*Gah, I can't write.
I meant I feel really strong about my last big post towning The Shining and LightningStrike. I felt stronger about my case on WarWaffle though and felt that was the strongest case I've ever cased. Which would be strongest of 3 hahaha
|
-Celestial-
Did you read my Night Kill post yet? Thoughts?
|
On January 08 2015 23:31 -Celestial- wrote:
Which one? That big long post you made predicting which kill?
Yes.
|
This one.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 08 2015 21:55 Tubesock wrote:Can't sleep. EoD timing for me is 3pm so I think I'll be awake around 10 or 11. I'd like to talk about the possible nk's targets. I don't understand nk picks so, I really want feedback on my reasoning. If I were scum, I think I'd kill the biggest threat. This would be either the best players (hardest to lynch) or who are on the right track. -Celestial- is universally townread at least till the lynch. Probably a doc save. Bad choice. The next towniest people I think are including their targets: 2. ExO_ His only real scumread was LightningStrike and to a lessor extent WarWaffle. 3. Rsoultin Scumming The Shining and I think LightningStrike, also fine with killing Warwaffle 4. Half The Sky Scumming LightingStrike and The Shining 5. Tubesock murdered Warwaffle and voiced next targets as JarJar, The Shining, and LightningStrike 6. Trfel no targets. sheep voted The Shining. Repeatedly defended LS and The Shining. The rest of you are either lynch targets or lurkers. In a world where mafia picks the nk based on reputation of play (assuming -Celestial- would get the save), I have a hard time believing that Rsoultin or Half The Sky live. HTS in Carol was amazing. She had 3 jailkeeper (I think that's the generic term for her role) saves, then layed a trap, hard claimed, and then within seconds it seemed mafia conceded. It was BEAUTIFUL. Rsoultin had gorgeous cases, AND a great thread presence with influence. Her reads were not 100% correct but she had a very strong role in winning that game. Trfel helped win the game because he was able to cop check a towny and get it out before he was killed n2 and he had a good case on our first mafia kill that tipped the scales for the lynch. Of those three nk targets (Rsoultin, HTS, Trfel) Rsoultin and HTS are strong towns in this game. Trfel hasn't really done much. He is a basic lurker. I don't think he'd be a threat. Unless The Shining and LightningStrike are town. Every single majority read towny is either building cases or scumming hard The Shining and LightningStrike. Those two are buried. They will flip town. Which means get rid of the guy who could stop those miss lynches. Which goes back to Trfel. Show nested quote +On January 07 2015 07:06 Trfel wrote:I guess I don't like lynching TheWarWaffle, LightningStrike, or The Shining. Yay. Not super convinced that any of them are scum. So I suppose that I prefer a lynch on The Shining over the other two, since The Shining has been reasonably inactive, despite constantly saying he will play more. I like some of the points rsoultin brought up (primarily the constant references to posting more soon... I get it the first time, or the second time, but now it seems like stalling to try and avoid getting lynched... kind of mad that I didn't notice that for myself). The other reason to vote The Shining is to sheep Half the Sky and rsoultin. From my experience, both are very good players, and they think that The Shining is mafia. They have also kept up with the thread better than I have. Is he saying he's basically townreading WW, LS and Shining? But due to not being caught up, he's going to sheep Rsoultin and HTS? It explains his ##Vote: The Shining+ Show Spoiler +
I realize that the timing of this vote switch seems really bad. I am still suspicious of LightningStrike, and am perfectly fine to explain why I voted for him in the first place. The primary explanation is that I wanted somewhere to place my vote, in case something happened and I didn't end up moving it by the deadline (I know that I am town, so I will take a ~25% chance of lynching scum over a 100% chance of a town!Trfel being modkilled, and a vote is easy to move). The reason I voted for LightningStrike is because he asked a lot of generic questions ("Hey you, what are your reads, with explanations please"). I don't remember him doing much questioning in the past, but I could be wrong. Still, asking primarily generic questions makes it seem even more like he is trying to appear useful while really doing nothing. In addition, he likes to use pretty fast meta reads, and didn't provide reads on any of the people he has played with before for quite some time. I feel that it was longer than I am used to.
Anyway, those are my thoughts at the moment. I'm switching votes to The Shining. Meanwhile, I will start looking into other lynch options (open to suggestions), and will be waiting for feedback and pushes.
I'm getting the impression that Trfel basically townreads TheWarWaffle, LightningStrike, and The Shining. He soft defends them but also talks about how he hasn't really read the thread, is not super confident in reads etc. He's not going to waste his vote so he knows he needs to be on a legitimate wagon (unlike Gumdrops on ExO_ for instance). Presumably, he sheeps his strongest townreads Rsoutlin and Half the Sky. Moral of the story, if The Shining or LightningStrike are mafia, then one of Rsoultin, Half The Sky, or ExO_ would be dead. I don't see a world where they would nk Trfel. My bad play murdered a claimed role so I think it would be stupid to nk me. And for the love of God, when I ask you what you think about my case/thoughts be more forceful on why I'm wrong. We fucking killed a blue. The only person who really articulated it being bad was Trfel. No one on WarWaffle moved. Even after the claim, people still said it was a probable fake claim. WarWaffles play was so scummy most of you disregarded his claim. None of you thought the lynch was bad enough to do a yelling all caps post telling us we are idiots for lynching a town/blue.
|
I thought of that. But I think the odds of both of them being mafia is really small. I'm mean infinitesimally small. Then it would be smarter to kill one of the strongest towns in -Celestial- (although I would assume the doc is on you), rsoultin, Half The Sky, or ExO_. It's hard to imagine a world where one of those die that the best argument isn't they are strong players in this game.
|
Sorry peeps, I'm finally going to pass out.
|
I didn't think Trfel was townreading The Shining or LightningStrike until about 3 times of rereading his filter. Did you guys think that he was not scumming them?
Is my thinking bad to believe that we could not have had 2 mafia on 3 wagons on Day 1? It's possible sure, but really? I get the argument that if BOTH LS and Shining are mafia that Trfel is a good NK. If none or one of them are mafia, I have a really hard time they wouldn't kill Rsoultin, Half The Sky, or ExO_.
Can more people talk to me about this? If you can't tell, I'm pretty dense and stubborn. I need more than one person to say this is a crackpot idea.
-Celestial- - You mentioned you had no idea how the wagon started and got momentum. I haven't seen you pursue that just yet. I probably missed it, can you let me know what you've learned?
Silverarte (Also LightningStrike) - Can you elaborate again on why you originally joined the WarWaffle lynch?
|
On January 09 2015 04:26 LightningStrike wrote:
Also @Tubesock Tfrel seemed Neutral on me and Shining as far as I had read his filter before his death and honestly the WIFOM stuff should be check on and see who would gain the most from Tfrel's death.
If he neutrals you, then how does killing Trfel implicate you?
Trfel's death benefits mafia. They gained less resistance to two mlynches. They will try to steer for the more difficult mlynch today, then when that one flips town, it'll cause a shitshtorm and we'd refocus on the easier mlynch.
|
-Celestial- You're the towniest of the town so far. Is there anyone you can make a really strong case on and push for?
Who is your likely mafia team?
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
