|
Since the question was thrown out there
My scum reads at this time are LS, JJB, followed by Gumdrop largely because of the lurking. Silverarte is a null to very slight town read, but I feel I need to see more from her. There is a part of me that when I read her stuff again, I can't tell if she's truly getting to the same conclusion as other people or if she's just sheeping (or copying) other people on most of her reads.
I have acknowledged she is difficult to read, input from JJB on her isn't anything conclusive though he cited her work schedule, and out of game situations are not alignment indicative. The longer the game goes on, I have to entertain whether her manner could be a way of hiding something but I am having a tough time cracking this.
Tube, you suspect her as well, can you elaborate why?
Celestial and ExO right now are still under review given the content I see from them today. I'm going through the exchange between him Tube and ExO right now. Good lord a lot of content from Celestial in defence and I am trying to see if what he's posted in the few hours lines up. If anyone wants to point out anything specific, let me know please.
|
On January 09 2015 11:01 Tubesock wrote:
I don't get anything from her list post here. I don't think there is anything memorable in it. Where is she scum hunting? When is the point in the game where your only posts are list posts inappropriate? It's a big long post (which people town sometimes) but where is any point where she shows indepth concern or thinking on someone?
I definitely have problems with lacking conviction the longer the game goes. I feel every one of her reads will turn into a sheep vote of one form or another. Just like Lightning but she says nice things that make way more sense than he does.
Well I try and ignore the tone of certain players when they post. 27NB runs into the same problem to use another example. I have already seen in other games people have been wrongfully read for their tone alone. I look for asking questions, which she does do, but it shouldn't be the only thing after some time. I look for things beyond that at certain points of the game. D1 this is okay, and maybe D2, but after that, I would expect some prioritisation of scumreads. But that's just me looking at my first game here.
Looking more in depth at that post for example, the word "recap" is generally speaking, a red flag. Scum tend to repeat things sometimes without taking things further. Yes she should be updating her reads, but "recap" makes me wonder as I read through if she's doing just that as she gives her reads. Which is why I think you are getting the impression that you are, Tube.
I'm aware she's short on time, she appears short on time to play this game...but that's not alignment indicative. So it is hard to determine if it's coincidence or convenience.
|
Some takeaways from my POV on your case Celestial on a first read:
Key points:
1 The part about LS and Shining makes some sense in that it is less likely that scum will double bus, or that double bussing is just less likely. The only problem with this is that no one has flipped scum, so I see that we can't really start making conclusions until somebody flips.
I have generally been against unflipped association reads, but that's just my interpretation.
2 The periphery part is a difference in interpretation. Personally peripheral votes is one of the ways a single scum can hide, but just as it is highly unlikely all scum will be on the same wagon, it's also highly unlikely all scum would have been on the periphery. I generally tend to think hiding on the periphery makes someone scum...in conjunction with other evidence.
3 The point on Shining versus WW. Scum generally want to try and split votes to have a greater chance of lynching a townie (generally speaking) so I can understand her rationale for consolidation. It makes complete sense from a town point of view. On the other hand - if I am reading you correctly here - you are contesting she had the pull to do so because she did push Shining hard.
The problem here is context though. I recall she said she had limited time and that people didn't switch until after she left.
Unless I am understanding "I will have to settle for ww" wrongly.
But I think my English is well enough that I understood what she was trying to do here.
Finally as I have just mentioned with Tubesock and discussing Silverarte, I'd also like to see (when you are back in thread) some discussion of Rasputin's D2 activity.. You obviously think she is scum, so I would imagine there is some reasoning behind her current/latest actions where you feel that read has not changed.
So when you return I'd like to see that when you can.
|
On January 09 2015 12:05 rsoultin wrote:
Do you have any questions for me? I'm still working back through the posting leading up to the lynch.
The only question I have at this point in time for you is to confirm your scumreads and/or nulls. You said a number of people were being scummy in a recent post. I know you are scumreading Celestial and LS possibly but whom else?
Tonight I am able to stay up a bit late until 4am, or another 45 mins, so if either you have something for me, please let me know. I'm off work tomorrow thank goodness.
|
On January 09 2015 12:05 rsoultin wrote:
Sorry HTS lol, I'm not ignoring you. And yes, the phrasing "settle for WW" means he wasn't my first choice.
And bah, didn't say before, but yes, thank you for clarifying, this is exactly how I read it.
|
On January 09 2015 12:21 The Shining wrote:
If ties end in no lynch, you'd vote either WW or myself in order to ensure a town mislynch.
I'm positive that ties end in a lynch on the first individual to have received that number of votes.
|
On January 09 2015 12:24 rsoultin wrote:
Silver is a null for me cause she's just a general question mark this game.
[...]
But this is all just preliminary. I'll have something more concrete waiting for you (and everyone else) when you wake up.
Thank you. That works. And also regarding Silver, I want to ask you the same thing I asked Shining (by mistake) and JJB, as a very new player who may not have played Mafia, unfamiliar with these premises, do you have any criteria for evaluating her?
|
EBWOP, that wording was bad.
As Silver is a very new player....do you have any criteria for evaluating her? The question was on Silverarte, not JJB.
|
On January 09 2015 12:37 rsoultin wrote:
None whatsoever @ HTS.
She's brand new to mafia. Her very first game. I'm just treating her as an inactive right now because I can't get anything from an AFK vote anyway and she's posted so little. Regardless, she's definitely not in my top scumreads that would make her a potential lynch tomorrow unless everyone goes stark raving mad and decides to vote you and ExO as scum or something. Then I'd be willing to settle on just about anyone else lol ><.
I agree she is not a D2 lynch. Not in the least compared to the other options. Just trying to get an idea of how someone who actually knows her is evaluating her, combined with that you are also a strong town read for me, I know I can trust your opinion.
|
At this point in time, my top lynch choice is LS, with JJB behind him, Celestial and Gumdrop, though the last one is essentially a policy vote.
Celestial isn't looking too good right now to me (which I'll explain in my next post) either after reviewing him last night, but I want him to answer some questions before deciding where he falls.
I didn't like JJB's attitude D1, and I said earlier today I didn't like his read development (page 32) and in his response to me on Shining, this made even less sense to me:
On January 08 2015 13:58 jarjarbinks wrote:
Can't find the quote to back me up on this...Shining said something I really liked, right before I voted for him ironically. I swear I'm super good at this game lolz. Then he changed his vote to Waffle and I facepalmed. I still blame myself for that. I think Shining blamed me too later. Apologies.
Went through ExO's filter. I'm seeing nothing but pointed, honest questions, so I'm still having a town read on ExO. Low postcount high content, but he's striking me the same way as LoneMeow, progressive questions where he does conclude where someone is scum. He's still looking for information.
Tubesock is a null - generally speaking, being tunnelled on someone is considered non-alignment indicative. His posts on the NKs was thought out however flawed it was though from what I could tell of the filter, I looked at the exchange between Tube and Celestial however, and Celestial had explained twice over why JJB was looking better in his eyes, where Tube had expected him to still make a case on JJB, even after that. So that tells me he's not reading or selectively reading.
Silverarte, I had her as null leaning town as I felt her reads were well laid out, though I wanted to see more from her in her reads. I understand her points on Celestial re: Shining and Rasputin, but I also didn't like how she brought out the Tube quote with JJB, considering again, going through Celestial's filter, he HAD said that JJB was looking better to him post-flip. So, at face value it reads as if she's taking things out of context. So still null in the end.
Shining is looking better to me, I feel he has some good thought out explanations. I feel he's stepped it up a bit since post-lynch. I did like some of his points against Celestial, which tells me he's reading and sniffing things out.
|
Regarding Celestial, as I pointed last night, there are holes in his case against Ras. I am sensitive to people taking things out of context. The stray vote D1 has already been explained, but still has to be taken into consideration, because it was, well, a stray vote. Waffling on others has also been debated.
Back to his read on Rasputin, this is what I saw earlier from D2:
On January 08 2015 23:07 -Celestial- wrote:My D1 issue with rsoultin is that having looked back over it her vote does not sit at all with her argument. Which I really, really don't like; I feel that if you believe that strongly you should vote and hope others follow. That being said I'm not entirely sure that makes rsoultin scum.Show nested quote +On January 08 2015 14:35 Silverarte wrote:
Celestial: You're been prolific in your posting, and it's led me to think town for you at first. The throwing away of your vote (as you put it) still puts a redmark on you to watch. I think my biggest fret is the free town passes early, straight to the vote...and then I'm not seeing much here about trying to contribute for the town and it feels floaty about-ish. Is Rsoultin your biggest target right now? Why?
No. My issue with rsoultin I mentioned above. I'm just kind of floating on her. Sometimes I get a strong scum feel others I feel she's genuinely town.
And then last night he presents a case on Rasputin. Now, honestly I felt there were a few holes in his case. But I'm having a tough time pulling his read development on Rasputin as well. He seems to go back and forth on Rasputin and then develops a case with largely the same material he used before, but with a different outcome, now a scumread. So the waffling argument definitely applies here too.
Hopefully you can clarify his development on Rasputin and give me some updated content for D2 whether you think that has changed any.
|
Tube, let me pull up the quotes. Hold on.
|
Tubesock, the quotes in question. You can also go to page 4 of his filter.
On January 09 2015 05:39 -Celestial- wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 04:44 Tubesock wrote:
-Celestial- You're the towniest of the town so far. Is there anyone you can make a really strong case on and push for?
Who is your likely mafia team? Sorry, missed this. [...] I was convinced by jarjar until I saw his post-flip analysis which comes across as a lot more genuine as an attempt to help out town. I'm still highly suspicious of rsoultin's motives, with the fact that she didn't remove that WW vote sitting pretty on top of the pile of reasons for my suspicion, despite the explanation.
On January 09 2015 07:25 -Celestial- wrote:
I'm going to need to work this out though before I can give you one. jarjar I didn't like primarily off the back of his D1 stuff, which I felt was largely useless and poorly thought out. His attitude post-flip though has been a LOT better and frankly I've not really been thinking ahead to the D3 lynch yet because we still have more than 24 hours of this to go, plus the full night to start thinking about D3 lynches.
On January 09 2015 08:21 -Celestial- wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 08:15 Tubesock wrote:
Celestial can't be bothered to make a case on Jarjar??? His number 2 read in all his scum list posts???
When I asked him to make a case, I said make a tough one that you stick your head out. And he starts one of LS??? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA I literally just stated that my case on jarjar was shaken by his massive improvement after the flip. Or did you miss that part? Or are you deliberately ignoring it? You asked for a case and since you were bloody well doubting the LS read I thought it would be handy for you to convince yourself on it. If you don't want that then fine.
Did he say explicitly? No. But that was the impression I got from reading his quotes.
|
On January 09 2015 23:01 rsoultin wrote:
What do you think about Celestial's can't be assed to do anything when he is saying WW is a bad lynch, and Shining and LS both were scumreads of his at the time, HTS?
Well that's where his singular vote comes in as scumlike. Even if he didn't have the same problem as you (in terms of time constraints) I think he should have switched after the blue claim. That is part of the reason he's in the scumpile for me.
On January 09 2015 23:01 rsoultin wrote:
Also, re: Celestial's case on me, it could be summed up as:
- Blue-hunting first few posts (pretty sure no one thinks that but him at this point; correct me if I'm wrong)
- Keeping vote on WW (already explained)
Meh, no reason for me to even respond to it. Will say that there is a ton of words there to repeat the same things, though.
Same problem I'm having with it. Same stuff, different conclusions. That's also why I want a D2 update.
|
Back in thread.
LS, there is enough waffling that ExO has a point with the intentionally misleading part, especially after all the back and forth I've seen with his other reads. Again, don't like his case on Rasputin. It reads as if he's trying to hedge his bets on her and then he'd vote her if the crowd went that way. And those are common scum traits. It does not add up.
The voting thing has it up in the air between you and him. And voting is by far the most solid evidence. I already explained the problem with Celestial's vote and why he is scum from that. But I am sure there is one vote somewhere on that WW wagon. Can you go through one more time, why you voted Waffle D1? I'm still struggling with exactly why you did not believe his blue claim, and you also had a scumread on Shining D1 looking at your filter, unless I'm reading something wrong.
Explain to me:
1 Why you voted WW initially
2 Why you didn't believe his blue claim
3 Once he claimed, why a scumread on Shining was NOT enough for you to switch to Shining.
|
On January 09 2015 17:03 jarjarbinks wrote:
2. Shining- 39%. 9% increase based on dead votes. 0% on my opinions of the 2 days play.
Shining has posted in D2 and should I interpret this as you not getting any alignment indicative information from him? If so, why?
|
Good lord, second straight blue claim in two days but now this is a hard claim. This is absolutely frustrating.
There is no counterclaim at this time, so now there's no way I can even consider Celestial at this point.
There's a lot of things I don't like about him, but then again if he was medic, the scumminess very well could have been intentional.
That was how I played it as jailkeeper (which is a medic and town roleblocker for the new folks) in Carol. I acted scummy enough so I could lessen my chances of getting NKed after N2. And he did say (pre-game?) he was following Carol. In a coached game especially, it doesn't seem unreasonable for him to do the same thing.
Shit.
|
On January 10 2015 01:41 LightningStrike wrote:
ExO have to be scum he called me and Celestial scum when we were town with Celestial being a Uncounterclaimed Doctor and never found scum because he is scum and doesn't want to call out his teammates.
LS, there is a difference between scumhunting and finding scum. He is scumhunting, but very well could be on the wrong track. How many times have we said in games that just because someone is town, that they are not always correct?
|
On January 10 2015 00:41 LightningStrike wrote:
2. I didn't believe the soft blue claim because if I was scum I would Soft Claim blue myself although I didn't in Student Mafia IV but that was because both of the Blue roles were killed in the first 36 hours of the game so I couldn't soft claim blue in that game. Generally speaking scum would soft claim blue more likely than a town that what the impression I gotten from looking at other games.
3. I wanted to see how Shining would act in Day 2 to confirm the case from rsoultin and it doesn't seem to match.
So if Shining is your top scum read or was, how do you feel about him now? Why ExO and not him?
Your vote on ExO seems to be partial OMGUS as he was scumreading you. I am going into ExO's filter again and trying to imagine a world where someone has posted the way he has is scum.
|
On January 10 2015 02:01 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2015 01:58 Half the Sky wrote:
Your vote on ExO seems to be partial OMGUS as he was scumreading you. I am going into ExO's filter again and trying to imagine a world where someone has posted the way he has is scum.
Because I now town reading Shining after the NK on Tfrel because he was defending me and Shining softly. Mafia wanted a easy way to mislynch me that's all my girlfriend.
I understand your perspective, but this is a WIFOM argument, and no scum have flipped.
Reviewing your case.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
