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On January 07 2015 06:12 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2015 06:06 Half the Sky wrote:
To add to what I just said on LS...in the game that he was scum, he acted like he was trying to hide, there was fear in some of his posts...and I'm not seeing any of that behaviour this game. He literally soft-claimed, then hard claimed. And you don't call that fear? There is panic in his posts. I don't like your rushing to his aid here. I see all sorts of fear in his posts, how can you not see any of it?
ExO, okay we are interpreting fear differently. Here are some of the relevant posts from the Student Mafia IV game, that illustrated fear.
On November 27 2014 12:31 LightningStrike wrote:
rsoultin convenced me to be honest with you as I saidf earlier in the thread before I changed my vote I was wanting to sleep since Day 1 reads are normally bad and don't want to risk lynching a power role and he said it's to little of a chance to lynch a power role and assured me it was the best thing to do so that why I changed my vote.
On November 29 2014 05:15 LightningStrike wrote:
I scared because last game I did vote to much and got me lynched and I thought changing my vote a lot would be seem scummy so it just a lesson I learned from my last game that's all.
On November 29 2014 06:32 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On November 29 2014 05:56 rsoultin wrote:
Have to agree with SL, lightning. Your timidity has me wondering if you do have a role. Since it's obviously not a town one...
You lose nothing participating if you're town. So what gives? Honestly let me ask you this question so you can get a glimpse of why I being very timid even as a VT After what I went through in my last game I trying to be less aggressive as I was overly aggressive in my last game but perhaps I am playing to passive :| I guess I still need to find a happy middle ground but also since we lost both of our power roles I am scared as shit since I never had to play a game when we lost both of our power roles in the first 36 hours and I pretty clueless on how to scum read good when we got no power roles alive.
On November 30 2014 02:02 LightningStrike wrote:
Okay I woke up and been reading the cases brought by rsoultin and meatpudding and honestly I still scared and honestly I don't really buy the case on kush and my vote will still stand on meatpudding until Breshke can give me his reason for wanting to lynch kushm4sta.
rsoultin let me ask you had you read my filter from my last game and looked at how that game ended? If not then looking in that game might be the clue you need to figure why I am so scared.
I want to stress that I am not townreading LS. I don't like his read progression this game and that is one of the key issues I have with him. There is a difference between saying someone is town and that someone is not a D1 lynch.
Do you understand where I'm coming from? (I am not asking you to agree with me.)
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EBWOP: This is why I am saying I need more time to evaluate LS. I will be completely honest with you, if this was my first time playing with LS, not knowing any prior behaviour, I would completely scumread him, but I am taking his prior play into account.
We are coming from different perspectives here.
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WarWaffle, if you could please respond to both Tube's and my concerns about you, that would be great.
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On January 07 2015 05:35 Trfel wrote:
Voting LightningStrike for now. Not impressed with his play at all. I'll say more in a bit once I finish reading everything.
Trfel, could you please elaborate on your read on LS? Both you and I have played two games with him, each as scum and town, and I'd like to see the reasoning for your conclusion. His reads have never been that well developed but if you can point the specific triggers (particularly as I make comparisons between this game and Carol) I would find that helpful.
I am also assuming part of your vote is based on meta.
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EBWOP - "...two games with him, him playing one each as scum and town...."
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On January 07 2015 07:37 Trfel wrote:
I read TheWarWaffle's big list post.
Wrong and mafia are different things. I disagree with many of TheWarWaffle's reads, but that doesn't make him mafia. I find it hard to see how he got some of those reads, but that doesn't make him mafia. To me, it looks like he is searching for mafia, albeit poorly and infrequently. That makes me a bit hesitant to lynch him.
Yea, this is why I want to see responses from him to our questions, I want to hear from him, as do others, but he needs to find a charging station first...
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Back in thread after yet another long day at work.
First off, the vote analysis. Starting with the isolated votes:
So Gumdrop and Celestial already voted outside the wagons, Celestial has already explained away (which I need to have a further look at), but it's Gumdrop's turn, I think Tube called him earlier saying in no world would ExO be done for.
It doesn't appear Gumdrop was in thread, but if you were, whom would you have voted for and what are your thoughts now?
On the main wagon, I highly doubt the entire scumteam (on page 11 I made assumptions there would be 3 scum) voted Waffle, because that is too obvious for D1. However, 2 of the votes on that wagon were sheep votes off someone with decent town cred, so it's likely at least 1 scum somewhere could have taken advantage.
WW made his claim 95 minutes prior to EoD. Of the votes coming in after that according to the vote thread, only Shining voted Waffle. To me, Shining's vote on Waffle in of itself is not alignment indicative. I had interpreted that as him trying to prevent a quickhammer on himself, considering his question on the tie vote. I had other issues with Shining and he still hasn't answered some of the concerns previously addressed with him.
Silverarte was out of thread because of her schedule. Voted WW earlier, and admits she was convinced by others. I looked closer at her read progression on WW and some of her other scumreads. She admits she sheeped the points made on WW (presumably by Rasputin) but looking at her filter I don't understand what in her mind made WW more scummy than say JJB, whom she was also scumreading and I still don't understand where she stood on Rasputin prior to voting. I'm assuming town at the time she voted because she obviously sheeped her, but I wonder if anything has since changed post-lynch. I'd really like her to clarify/update her reads.
LS, well, deary me. I was 50/50 on this guy but now he looks worse. I looked at the exchange between him and Rasputin and aside from the whole blue role controversy I'm just not buying this:
On January 07 2015 11:16 LightningStrike wrote:I thought that Shining didn't have a lot votes at the time and I tunneled to hard on TWW I'm sorry 
As town, I don't know how not observing the votes near EoD would fly. He said he's tunnelled too hard on Waffle, so I decided to work backwards on read progression. Tunnelled? Really?
Going through LS's filter, he goes on from a scum read post on Shining to a vote on WW on page 17, 17 minutes after Rasputin votes him. In his filter, there is zero progression to WW up to the time he votes him. After his vote I see one repetition in his filter of why he voted but I don't see any followup questions, or him making a bigger case. Then he says he's tunnelled on him. I don't even. It just seems to me too convenient of a vote.
In contrast, Tubesock was actually tunnelled on WW and I could at least follow where he was coming from, why he asked the questions he did. In his filter there are 10+ posts with questions on WW and explanations on WW's read post. None of that from LS.
Once again, negligible/poor read progression leading up to his vote on WW and not taking it off post-claim as Rasputin discussed makes LS look very poor.
LS, can you explain what differentiated WW from Shining at the time you voted him?
I will comment on some of the other votes as well, but I am going to grab some food.
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Taking a closer look at JarJar's filter, I had previously scumread him for not really scumhunting. Now that the votes are out, and he's clearly voted for Shining, I am curious as to the development of his read on Shining and whether it still stands.
His first read on Shining is a meta-read, and then explains to Gumdrop that he voted Shining accordingly based on claims by WW and LS but then should have picked LS because of the votes.
My problems with JarJar at face value are:
1 he doesn't really seem to discuss Shining's behaviour or any sort of his content in the current game leading up to the vote
2 the timing of his vote on Shining, which Rasputin already mentioned
3 the ranking of his scumreads, not only did he not really push Shining, at least not that I can tell from his filter, but I'm looking for any push on Tube or another scumread he felt strongly about and I didn't see any challenges on anyone else at any point in the day.
Now, granted, I realise Tube wasn't anywhere near close for lynch, but my point here here is that I get the impression (rightly or wrongly) that he's laying back and just voting when it's most convenient and not based on behaviours/evidence in the current game.
Meta cases are okay with adequate support, but even in this quote, he admits it's a weak case, so it's not like he's attempting to sell that point to anyone.
On January 07 2015 02:02 jarjarbinks wrote:
Shining- Based off 1 past game, I could see Shining’s posts on here being similar to when she was mafia last game. Really weak case though, as I’ve only played with Shining once. I could see her defending her way out of my suspicion, since it is a weak case and Shining has prodded several different people as well as defended herself in the past.
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JarJar, what are your current thoughts on Shining and has it changed any since lynch based on behaviours in the game?
Now take that same question but substitute that with LS, again focusing on current behaviours in the game.
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Shining, can you explain what is going into your read of Silverarte? It appears you've played with her on other sites (or am I wrong on that?) I'm fully aware she hasn't played mafia here, and maybe her expectations of how to play are different, but if I recall right, Rasputin and I have both asked her questions, some players have cited a hard time getting reads on her, and I'm not getting good read development from her at all. She is answering questions, but someone of either alignment could do that. And understanding her filter correctly, she was one of the votes that sheeped Waffle.
Can you explain what you think makes her town? When you analysed votes, you townread her.
JarJar appears to scumread her (I think?) in his latest post so I'm trying to understand what criteria you (or anyone else familiar with her?) are applying for her reading her as either alignment.
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On January 08 2015 14:02 rsoultin wrote:
Something else came to mind as I was thinking. Why are Celestial and ExO mad at WW for softclaiming when they weren't voting for him in the first place? It's an idle thought but seems out of place from where I'm sitting now. I get the ones who were scumreading/lynching him being upset.
Hey, here, for a little bit. Your second question, I am trying to think through.
If WW claimed VT, that's poor because that helps scum narrow down potential power roles. Here I can see any town being arsed.
But as a PR, from a fellow town perspective, you should be claiming when you're well on your way to a lynch. I did that in Carol, granted I hardclaimed in that one, but the point stands. People removed their votes off me or moved it to Holyflare, the alternative target at that time.
Maybe these guys (in error) assumed that others would remove their votes if they hard claimed? There were a few who said they didn't believe him because it was a softclaim. ExO doesn't say either way from reading his filter and Celestial complained but I cannot find a reason from him either, not that I can see.
Soft claim vs hard claim I can understand the debate, although you clarified how his call was appropriate post-lynch for his specific role.
I could see someone assuming a blue role claiming too prematurely, like say D1, getting themselves killed, but this lad did not hard claim. Cops in particular are discouraged from claiming D1, but WW was obviously not cop.
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Rasputin, my impressions on the voting, to sum my post up from last night (page 19) is that there was likely one mafia on the leading wagon, one mafia that was in isolation, and the third, could be either, or the counterwagon. Again, I'm under the assumption there are three. If there are more than three, we are in serious trouble. In which case, I'd say it's likely there are two mafia on the leading wagon.
And I am trying to use other means of reading people to dissect what went into their votes.
Read development is a method that Vivax used successfully in Carol, and I am trying to use that as part of my basis.
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On January 08 2015 14:04 jarjarbinks wrote:
To HTS on LS
I honestly sympathized with LS on day 1. It seemed like people were being overaggressive with him. I wanted to focus my suspicions elsewhere since it seemed he was definitely some peoples #1 scummer. So what if he couldn't overanalyze other people and have a decent original scumread? Neither did I, gum, waffle, or silver. What did the scumreads give us day 1? A lot of anger and a dead veteran. Granted you can go back later and look at day 1 posts, but still.
That's not entirely accurate there. You, Gum, and Silver didn't have decent original scumreads as you said, but Waffle actually did (he scumread both Silverarte and Tube), Tubesock tunnelled him for it after WW already had votes for lurking from Ras and Silver. The veteran did not die because he underanalysed people.
A scum behaviour would be a consistent lack of original content, and a town behaviour of making their reads clear helps town form a general opinion on who is scum and who is not. Town tend to want to put their opinions out there and share the information and keep that constructive discussion going.
However there are enough new players we have to keep asking questions between new player behaviour and scum behaviour. Also there is more than one way to scumhunt, but barring an outright scumslip, most methods require some form of analysis.
No, LS did not have good read development D1, but I tried to look as closely as I could to his other games, and it's a reason I told ExO at the time he wasn't a good D1 lynch, though I had concerns on his behaviour. Now seeing his actions post-lynch gives more weight to the belief that he is scum. Even Shining pointed out he blatantly avoided one of my questions.
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On January 08 2015 15:12 The Shining wrote:
HTS, to answer you, I do not know Silverarte, unless she goes by another name that I'm unaware of. The only people that I know I've played with before are Jar Jar, RSoultin and ExO. As for why I gave Silver a town read, I looked through her filter as I was doing my vote analysis. It came down to her and LS. Her posts up until now, although not the highest number, have all done a good job of showing she's reading the thread when she can and answering questions and suspicions directed towards her pretty well, when possible. As opposed to LS, who I've made my case against already. I don't think the mafia is dumb enough to have 2 members on the main wagon so I had to choose between the two and Silver leans slightly more towards Town.
Alright, I stand corrected on you knowing Silver. I was under the general impression a number of you (of whom Rasputin was in that group) knew each other, and I couldn't quite place who played with whom on that site, but I digress.
Focusing on the bolded part, I see where you are coming from. I see part of it is from the vote analysis, but as for Silver herself, answering questions, depending on context, and how they are answered, could be of any alignment, however, she is certainly not dodging them, the responses look thought out without being drawn out, so that's obviously a good sign.
Postcount itself is generally not alignment indicative either, as I've played games with some very good low-post, high-content people, LoneMeow being a very good example of putting all his scumreads/analysis on one post. She appears to be short on time for this game, and I see she is doing the same.
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On January 09 2015 07:24 LightningStrike wrote:
That because HTS would rather play the other game than this clearly.
Since you are bringing it up, I'm just going to say it now:
Context please. Ironic coming from you as you are also doubled up in the same game I am. I was getting wagoned in that other game and defended myself for over an hour.
Playing in another game is not alignment indicative. This is why hosts generally grant 48h day periods.
Now that I am back here, I will focus on the issues here.
Catching up on the thread.
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LS, for you.
On January 09 2015 02:09 LightningStrike wrote:
What question did I miss from you because I thought I answered all of your questions?
Operative words in bold, extend all quotes.
On January 08 2015 07:31 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2015 06:32 LightningStrike wrote:On January 08 2015 05:45 Half the Sky wrote:
LS, can you explain what differentiated WW from Shining at the time you voted him? I just tunelled to hard while I was worried about my mom but at least she is feeling much better now. I just couldn't concentrate at all at the time but WW was way more inactive in the thread that all I remember why I went after WW and also I was liking rsoultins post on why to vote WW too. I so lost right now to be honest with you like maybe one of my town reads is scum this game and I just denying it. I hope Day 2 gives me a fresh start on who is scum and who isn't. In the first post, LS is claiming to be ready to go all-in on me. [b]Next post is a claim of tunneling too hard, which LS did not do(Tube did) and a blatant avoiding of a question. LS did not explain what differentiated WW from me at the time.
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Next thing I want to comment are the nightkills. This is mainly aimed at Tube.
There’s a reason why NKs and night actions are generally considered WIFOM (or for the newer players, “wine in front of me” which means to disregard because multiple outcomes are equally likely)
On January 08 2015 22:58 Tubesock wrote:
I didn't even consider him being a role target. Mostly, because I just don't have any idea on where to start with role hunting. So, stuff that I don't have understanding on I typically ignore.
Tube, if you are going to use NK analysis, you have to take into account all possible outcomes. You are correct that scum will want to eliminate their biggest threats, so the point you have made on the vets should definitely be taken into consideration, but another priority is blue roles. You cannot ignore the fact that scum could potentially have been role hunting.
The reason why blue roles are a threat is that left alive too long, a blue role can claim at some point with all their cop checks, medic saves, etc, who’ve they have tracked, and that can narrow down a scumteam very quickly late game. Case in point, my own JK claim in Carol, D5. Revealed 3 saves, confirmed one mafia, shot HF's case out of the water along with his scumreads and got him lynched given the intentions behind the case.
For any given scumteam, there are traits in a forum that may signify blue roles. A blue role list of actions is much more hard evidence than any veteran staying alive, and the decision to make between how to prioritise NKs by role hunting or threats will vary by scumteam/setup/etc.
And this is why NKs are WIFOM, because you cannot know for sure how a scumteam would have made a decision. And especially in this game, a newbie game with coaches, (as others I believe have said) you don’t know what portions of the game have been coached.
If you want to use your arguments for determining threats to Trfel, etc as evidence, you need to use them in conjunction with other forms of evidence. If you use WIFOM arguments alone, you run the risk of running down the wrong rabbit hole.
Am I making sense?
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EBWOP - ALSO adding to the potential variability in NKs is the fact that this game is an open setup. I forgot that point.
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Tube, people can breadcrumb their roles by accident.
It has happened. An example again from Carol. ObiWanShinobi, an experienced player disputed LoneMeow being town RIGHT BEFORE THE DAYPOST. (That's an example of a hint right there.) LoneMeow was recorded as being shot D2.
The scumteam picked up on that and he was shot the next night, flipped vigilante. Vivax did later on as he traced that NK in the actual thread, but the point still stands.
I am not disputing your train of thought, I can see where you are coming from, but you have to keep all options open.
As for Celestial, I definitely want to see more reads from him. I'm filter diving him right now. to see if I can grab anything indicative using my own thought process. I see why others have scumread him.
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On January 09 2015 08:47 Tubesock wrote:
HTS,
if you were a coach of a towny with a save roll, wouldn't you save either Celestial, Rsoultin or ExO over say you and Trfel? Or any of the lurkers?
If I were mafia, and I'm hunting blue, I'd shoot you. I don't think I'd protect you as a save roll though. I just don't see a world where mafia wouldn't think a shot on HTS is not safe. More WIFOM I know, but it seems low chance.
This is all speculation. It depends on the coach's interpretation. Since you are asking me the question, if I were coaching a medic, it would depend on my interpretation of people, knowledge of people, if I think someone let the cat out of the cover (or breadcrumbed, as you put it) as a role, also depends on mechanics (varies by mod) since some medics cannot save the same person twice in a row, etc.
And now, you just gave me your own interpretation of whom you'd save or shoot, someone else that had different reads or understandings would take different actions. Also if someone has multiple town reads, they cannot save all of them.
Again, this is all WIFOM for a reason.
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EPT
