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ExO_
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States2316 Posts
January 10 2015 21:18 GMT
#1016
quote them for me. I don't intend to really go back and reread heavily until after the night results
ExO_
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States2316 Posts
January 10 2015 22:29 GMT
#1039
On January 11 2015 06:18 rsoultin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 11 2015 05:54 ExO_ wrote:
Computer is finally working again. I've been working on it since 9am.

I'm not sure what exactly rsoultin is trying to say here. That somehow I wasn't scum hunting? I feel like I'm one of the few in the thread that's at least tried. For all the talk, I pushed Celestial day 2, because I thought his play was scummy. Hell he might be scum now. I'm not 100% sold on his doc claim. But what did everybody else besides tubesock do? Just stuck on LS.

I scumread LS on day 1. I thought WW was kinda scummy too. And based on his play I feel like the lynch on WW was justified. For a blue town role, WW played like garbage. I think the same of LS, for a town role he played very poorly. And I can tell you since I scum read LS on day 1, it's very easy for me to stay on him day 2. I have an ego, I want to be right and be able to say "check out how good I am, I picked him out on day1!". But it didn't go down like that.

That being said, you've gotta be kidding me. I don't switch off of the votes day 1 because it wasn't necessary. I think I would've preferred LS lynch day 1, but the WW lynch made sense to me. And as I've said previously, I would've switched to WW if vote shenanigans went down at the last second.

My read on LS was wrong. But at least I'm trying to scum read people. And I'm trying hard not to tunnel vision on the first scum read I make.

If you have questions for me ask. I'll do my best to explain anything I've said. I can tell you for sure though I am not scum, and I think my play this game shows that.


To be honest with you, ExO...I don't get your LS/WW progression because of your argument with Trfel

It seems like you're pushing him toward WW in that post, while staying on LS, after you already said you wouldn't move your vote from LS. Afterwards you claimed that you'd move after you were asked about the fit you threw after flip, but nothing about it beforehand.


I thought WW was scummy, but LS was my top read. I said I wouldn't move my vote from LS because it wasn't necessary, but I 100% would have if last second vote changes had gone done.
ExO_
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States2316 Posts
January 10 2015 22:38 GMT
#1045
On January 11 2015 06:20 rsoultin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 11 2015 03:23 rsoultin wrote:
On January 10 2015 08:46 ExO_ wrote:
I am. and at least for me, I think it's a sign he's scum.

If he flips scum it'll be easy to see that scum all bussed him because they were afraid. And since he had a bit of attention on day 1 as well, I think it'll be easy to work out who might be scum.

Compare this to day 1, in which we lynched a town. The votes where everywhere. It'd be surprising to me if all the mafia ended up on the same town wagon.


On the other hand, if he flips town then this gets really hard. it could be that LS has had too much momentum on him all of day 2, but when Tube and I were both pushing Celestial nobody else even tried to get another wagon going, or jumped on Celestial....which now that I think about it might be revealing.

Still, we'll have a much better idea in 15 minutes.


Where were you going with this? You apparently had an idea that you failed to address after flip even though LS did in fact flip town. But all you wanted to talk about was game mechanics?


That.


Nobody tried to disturb the status quo, meaning I might've been on the wrong track about LS. However I really did think LS was going to flip scum, and that mafia were heavily bussing.

ExO_
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States2316 Posts
January 10 2015 22:39 GMT
#1046
On January 11 2015 07:37 rsoultin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 08 2015 14:33 ExO_ wrote:
On January 08 2015 14:02 rsoultin wrote:
HTS, you still here? I need someone to talk to who I'm not scumreading/feeling iffy about.

What are your impressions on the voting? I read your earlier post and can see you're not sure about LS or JarJar right now.

Something else came to mind as I was thinking. Why are Celestial and ExO mad at WW for softclaiming when they weren't voting for him in the first place? It's an idle thought but seems out of place from where I'm sitting now. I get the ones who were scumreading/lynching him being upset.



I'm mad at WW for bad play. He has a blue role. but he's inactive as hell, and when he does post his reads are bad and filled with wrong information. Then he soft claims blue when he's about to die. I know I'd try to fake claim if I was a mafia and looking like the inevitable lynch, and that's what this looked like to me.

So I'm mad that an important town player couldn't take the time to play the game, potentially fucking the rest of us over. I didn't switch my vote over to him because I didn't need to. But I was around at EoD and you better believe I was watching for last second shenanigans. If I saw people moving votes at the last second, I would've jumped on to the WW train.

I still believe LS was the better vote. I still believe LS is scum now. But the case on WW was decent in my opinion.


This is the first time you mention making a vote change, ExO, after I questioned your reaction to the flip. You didn't leading up to EoD. If you did, please link me to it, because I'm not seeing it.

I'm sorry, but anyone can concoct a story later.


On January 08 2015 14:33 ExO_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 08 2015 14:02 rsoultin wrote:
HTS, you still here? I need someone to talk to who I'm not scumreading/feeling iffy about.

What are your impressions on the voting? I read your earlier post and can see you're not sure about LS or JarJar right now.

Something else came to mind as I was thinking. Why are Celestial and ExO mad at WW for softclaiming when they weren't voting for him in the first place? It's an idle thought but seems out of place from where I'm sitting now. I get the ones who were scumreading/lynching him being upset.



I'm mad at WW for bad play. He has a blue role. but he's inactive as hell, and when he does post his reads are bad and filled with wrong information. Then he soft claims blue when he's about to die. I know I'd try to fake claim if I was a mafia and looking like the inevitable lynch, and that's what this looked like to me.

So I'm mad that an important town player couldn't take the time to play the game, potentially fucking the rest of us over. I didn't switch my vote over to him because I didn't need to. But I was around at EoD and you better believe I was watching for last second shenanigans. If I saw people moving votes at the last second, I would've jumped on to the WW train.

I still believe LS was the better vote. I still believe LS is scum now. But the case on WW was decent in my opinion.


Check the date
ExO_
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States2316 Posts
January 10 2015 22:46 GMT
#1048
Oh I misread you're first post @.@

And yeah that's the first time I mentioned a vote change. No vote shenanigans went down, so I didn't need to change my vote.

If you're working from the assumption I'm scum, think about that for a second. Why would I bother telling everyone I thought the case on WW was fine and I would've switched my vote to him? If I'm scum, I have my vote stuck on another person and can argue that I really thought they were scum and that's why I didn't switch. Why wouldn't I just jump on the train initially?

It doesn't make any sense.
ExO_
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States2316 Posts
January 10 2015 22:46 GMT
#1049
I thought you were quoting me the 2nd time saying I would've switched votes and saying that was the first time I mentioned it
ExO_
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States2316 Posts
January 10 2015 23:11 GMT
#1052
On January 11 2015 07:50 rsoultin wrote:
It doesn't make any sense that with your vote parked on LS and trfel saying he was voting for LS, that you started arguing with him that the WW wagon had merit.

That's bugging me. It's like you wanted him to settle there even though your choice was LS.


Who was I arguing with that the WW wagon had merit exactly?
ExO_
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States2316 Posts
January 10 2015 23:14 GMT
#1054
On January 11 2015 07:48 rsoultin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 11 2015 07:38 ExO_ wrote:
On January 11 2015 06:20 rsoultin wrote:
On January 11 2015 03:23 rsoultin wrote:
On January 10 2015 08:46 ExO_ wrote:
I am. and at least for me, I think it's a sign he's scum.

If he flips scum it'll be easy to see that scum all bussed him because they were afraid. And since he had a bit of attention on day 1 as well, I think it'll be easy to work out who might be scum.

Compare this to day 1, in which we lynched a town. The votes where everywhere. It'd be surprising to me if all the mafia ended up on the same town wagon.


On the other hand, if he flips town then this gets really hard. it could be that LS has had too much momentum on him all of day 2, but when Tube and I were both pushing Celestial nobody else even tried to get another wagon going, or jumped on Celestial....which now that I think about it might be revealing.

Still, we'll have a much better idea in 15 minutes.


Where were you going with this? You apparently had an idea that you failed to address after flip even though LS did in fact flip town. But all you wanted to talk about was game mechanics?


That.


Nobody tried to disturb the status quo, meaning I might've been on the wrong track about LS. However I really did think LS was going to flip scum, and that mafia were heavily bussing.



So all that statement meant was that you could be wrong? Then why did you say we'd have a "much better idea" in 15 minutes? Again, it's not to be super picky about wording, but that implies you actually thought that there was some sort of significance to LS flipping town and you and Tube pushing Celestial earlier.

We'd know in 15 minutes whether LS was town or scum. We'd have a much better idea of what?


I'm not sure what you're getting caught up on. We'll have a much better idea of what the game looks like after LS flipped, one way or the other.
ExO_
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States2316 Posts
January 10 2015 23:19 GMT
#1056
On January 11 2015 08:13 rsoultin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 07 2015 06:59 ExO_ wrote:
On January 07 2015 06:54 Trfel wrote:
I apologize to everyone (well okay, just the townies), I don't have time to read everyone and choose the ideal lynch target based on only my own analysis. My fault. I will do better next time.

The bandwagon on TheWarWaffle feels like a policy lynch. The read on Half the Sky is extremely weak, but others have done the same thing. Still, I like the fact that he is analyzing wording and constructing an argument, even if I disagree with said argument.


I'm not sure I agree that it's a policy lynch. Go read his big read post. None of it makes any sense whatsoever. Its blatantly wrong about a lot of players thus far. Read it and then come back and say it's still just a policy lynch.


That's the post I'm referring to. Am I misinterpreting it?


Well you made it sound like I'm pushing him off LS onto WW. That's not the case. I thought the case on WW was decent based on the fact that his reads were just plain horrible and wrong. It most certainly was not a policy lynch which was the main point I was trying to make.

You've taken that, and turned it into me telling somebody not to vote for one of my scum targets.
ExO_
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States2316 Posts
January 10 2015 23:21 GMT
#1057
On January 11 2015 08:18 rsoultin wrote:
-squints at-

It just read to me like you had somewhere to go, some sort of read, analysis, something, that would have followed from an LS town flip. I mean...what really did that lynch by itself say? At least looking at the votes it just says everyone piled on LS when we shouldn't have -_-.

So I was expecting some sort of follow-up that never came :/


What I really thought was going to happen, is LS flips scum. This would've meant mafia bussed him heavily. Then we could've gone back and looked at where the votes ended day 1 and figured out who was bussing.

On day 1 it looks like the mafia spread their votes out, then day 2 piled them all on the same target. I thought based on day 1, mafia would try to spread their votes out again, and we'd only see a pileup like that if they were bussing.
ExO_
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States2316 Posts
January 10 2015 23:51 GMT
#1060
On January 11 2015 08:23 rsoultin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 11 2015 08:21 ExO_ wrote:
On January 11 2015 08:18 rsoultin wrote:
-squints at-

It just read to me like you had somewhere to go, some sort of read, analysis, something, that would have followed from an LS town flip. I mean...what really did that lynch by itself say? At least looking at the votes it just says everyone piled on LS when we shouldn't have -_-.

So I was expecting some sort of follow-up that never came :/


What I really thought was going to happen, is LS flips scum. This would've meant mafia bussed him heavily. Then we could've gone back and looked at where the votes ended day 1 and figured out who was bussing.

On day 1 it looks like the mafia spread their votes out, then day 2 piled them all on the same target. I thought based on day 1, mafia would try to spread their votes out again, and we'd only see a pileup like that if they were bussing.


Gosh this is eating at me. You said that his flipping town would be telling though ><

And yeah, of course if he flipped scum it was a massive buss. Every single player was on him o.0.


Because I'm considering multiple scenarios? From my point of view right now you are trying to nit pick everything I said and hopefully something makes everyone think I'm scum.

I'm not. I've done my best to help town, and yeah my read on LS was wrong. But I'm not getting a lot of help from anybody else.
ExO_
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States2316 Posts
January 11 2015 00:01 GMT
#1066
On January 11 2015 08:59 rsoultin wrote:
Okay, well...we're running out of time for the night phase, so I'm going to put my thoughts into one post.

Town reads: HTS, Tube, JarJar (less certain on my brother and almost completely certain on the other two, but he legitimately does predictions based on statistics for a living and his voting patterns have been logical and in-line with his reads)

Nullish/Do Not Lynch Day 3: -Celestial-, Scott (doc claim/breadcrumbs and AFK replacement respectively)

Would Lynch:
- ExO (90% certain) his scumhunting seems more like throwing darts at a board (at the risk of sounding hypocritical) and his read progression/interactions with Trfel at EoD Day 1 especially, including the rage!fit after the flip, seem insincere to me...a good idea would be to check if his pushes start up after thread sentiment has already begun to swing that way (I know the Celestial one did)

- Shining (70% certain) for his start that I think I've mentioned a few times now, but also this oddity of completely dropping any pressure on ExO after WW flipped for no apparent reason...even goes so far as to say that there might be scum on the LS wagon but still gives ExO a bye when the only other one there was WW, says he's taking the game seriously after Day 2 but mostly just posts defensive posts and a push on -Celestial-, then finally ends with his only post of Night 2: a WIFOM game balance argument that Celeste must be scum cause this game can't possibly have a doctor (why when we don't know the set-up at all?)

- Silver (least certain) she never stepped up. could be newb play, but all I see from her filter is sheeping and I'm not getting the feeling that she cares to find scum, especially since she dropped the people she was scumreading to sheep me Day 1 (which is sad to say cause I <3 my silver ^^)...her big posts only come after she's prodded for them, contain a lot of fluff, and the rest are mostly excuses


Final Comment: With the breadcrumbing, I think that Celestial is a likely mislynch. Please, if I am not here to provide my input, whatever you decide, be really certain before you lynch an un-CCd role.


I was the first to bring up Celestial rsoultin. Tube didn't start on him until after I did. Are you lying, or have you just not read the thread?
ExO_
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States2316 Posts
January 11 2015 01:28 GMT
#1079
The Shining
Half the Sky
jarjarbinks
scott31337
Silverarte
ExO_
-Celestial-
Tubesock

This is the remaining players. Out of these:

Myself, HTS, Tubesock have all been very active and helpful.

Celestial is still a question mark in my mind.

Leaving:

JarJar, Shining, scott, Silverate

I think the lynch has to be one of those 4. b/c scott was the inactive gumdrops it's hard for me to see lynching him right off the bat.

Silverate has posted next to nothing.

Jarjar is impossible for me to read: He isn't very articulate and I've largely ignored what he has to say. But my impression as of this moment without filter diving isn't that he's scum, it's that he's just pretty "meh" town

Shining had a lot of suspicion on him day 1. Day 2 I seemed to think he was just playing poorly on day 1, and wasn't scum. But now his case needs to seriously be looked at.

Until I go filter diving, it'll be hard for me to push somebody. I feel like because we let the inactives chill so much, we're really paying for it now. I think in future games I'll be more likely to go for inactives early on, so that I won't have to wonder "is that player with almost no posts a mafia? or an inactive town?".

Anywho, I'm supposed to be playing video mafia in 30 minutes (though I suspect not enough will show up) and then I'm going to stream civ. I don't feel like doing a lot of intense reading b/c I'm depressed with the current state of this game.
ExO_
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States2316 Posts
January 12 2015 08:21 GMT
#1155
So I've been gone for a while. I stepped away from mafia for a while because it was kinda stressing me out. And to be entirely honest I was feeling lazy and felt like playing dota and civ. Unfortunately when you do this you come back to a few new pages of content and several huge posts.

I've skimmed everything. I'm sure I don't have it all down. But Silverate has claimed cop, without a counter claim. This means he will die tonight.

I really think Celestial fake claimed doctor. But I think after another day it'll become more obvious if he did or not.

Right now it looks like to me the leading lynch candidates are shining and jarjar. Could somebody give me a brief explanation of the reasoning on both?

Also if there are any questions about my actions I'll gladly answer them. I think if you look at my play It's pretty clear I am town, especially since I've been cleared by silv.
ExO_
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States2316 Posts
January 12 2015 20:36 GMT
#1174
In my opinion, if Celestial is voting shining, that's a good enough reason for me to vote for JJB

##Vote: JJB
ExO_
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States2316 Posts
January 12 2015 20:38 GMT
#1175
Expanding on that, that paints a clear picture for mafia to be:

Scott, JarJarBinks, and Celestial.
ExO_
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States2316 Posts
January 13 2015 00:09 GMT
#1209
Now that the game is over can JarJar admit that he was picking random %s
ExO_
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States2316 Posts
January 13 2015 00:14 GMT
#1218
On January 13 2015 09:10 jarjarbinks wrote:
Totally wasn't!

I think I will never say the word "number" again in this game! Although I definitely will be using them!


They were clearly wrong though lol. To me it looks like complete bullshit
ExO_
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States2316 Posts
January 13 2015 00:18 GMT
#1232
On January 13 2015 09:16 Damdred wrote:
Seriously though why wouldn't you guys listen to shining about how there cannot be a medic and a vet in a twelve person game. Especially when newb 12 person games generally only have 2 roles in it, crazy LS didn't talk about this. Medic+vet is way to town favored lol


Because if we lynch a scum, and with the results of the following night it should become obvious that he was lying.

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