EPTCould I have your reads please?
Newbie Mini Mafia LX - Page 11
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
Could I have your reads please? | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
Is it safe to say your preferred lynch order would be: The Shining -Celestial- Silverarte ? | ||
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I sound EXACTLY like these guys. | ||
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If everyone is willing to lynch Shining, that makes me scared. He is either really bad or just not scared about talking about his end of day 1 voting panic and other mistakes. First it was, Tube tunnel was strong and then it was to save himself and then it was back to strong or whatever. If it were me, it would be both really. I'd be scared to die, AND thought the claim was fake. But I was in the tunnel so... His post here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?page=31#608 He explains himself a bit. One of the things we tried defending LS for is his fearlessness in posting. Well, Shining also does that. I understand his I'm not moving from LS vote. There wasn't a world where LS looked town in any capacity. I still think I was the only one to defend him and I just ran out of energy. The only GOOD argument that he was town was that it was 9-1 or whatever the vote was. And I didn't even see that. I would have WIFOM'd it away anyway. Shining was scummed for his weak case on LS. Well, all of us should get scum for that. He was also scummed for saying he probably won't leave either, but NO ONE gave a good reason to leave. Shining also scummed Celestial and shining even though he didn't move his vote to Celestial he still helped push. Why would he change right away? I mean I think it's pretty obvious that if you are the target of TubesockJihad you are not getting out of it easily. I looked at just the timestamps of his posts. EoD is at 1500 for me. Much (not all but most) his posts were from 1400 - 1900 my time. There were outliers but it seemed like a pattern. Celestial's claim was outside this posting time pattern and I didn't really think that the celest wagon really took off till after Shining was posting. the Celestial had 2 votes till about 5am my time when Rsoultin and then Silver usually check in in the morning. Celestial claimed at 7:02 (well that's when I unvoted him due to the claim which I was there for). Shining was also scummed for using meta somewhere. Well, everyone in this game is guilty of that. Not everyone can be scum. The shining has been on constant lynch pressure since Day 1. Everyone is posting big cases on him that well are not getting me excited. Which I would think I would be. | ||
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Tubesock
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Vote Jarjar. | ||
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Post game, I'm screaming at the inactive towns. | ||
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-Celestial- is the Godfather. | ||
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On January 12 2015 07:46 The Shining wrote: Sigh. GG Rso. You know what. This replacement hit the track blazing in an attempt to win for scum today. Comes in and immediately jumps on one of the easiest scumreads in the game in me. Almost every one of you have scummed me at some point or another and yet here I am. Why would scum nk me, regardless of who I'm suspicious of, if I'm on every scum list? Now they're finally pushing me to win the game. With a replacement, no less. yes, but he has absolutely no choice. In no way would he be able to enter without some substance either town or mafia. + Show Spoiler + I can't wait until this one is over so I can see who flips scum because you guys played a good game, starting with taking advantage of my inexperience and loss of internet at work. A part of me wants to sit here and defend myself but hell, even I'm wondering if I'm scum now. Because you know, I would definitely kill RSo after naming me her second top scumread. I love how Tube can say it was possibly done to set up ExO. I don't get that BoD though because I'm everyone's free and easy scum read. I don't have any faith whatsoever that I'll convince any of you but unfortunately I have to try because Town is about to throw this game. Very paranoid. What's BoD? In my Shining defense post I made the point bolded above. It will require more work from you to clear yourself however. You do have some support. + Show Spoiler + I am VT. If LS, Rso, Trfel and I pulled VT, with Silver as cop, we have Celestial, HTS, Tube, Scott, ExO, JJB left. ExO and Tube are somewhat cleared by cop checks. Either both are town or one is the Godfather. Regardless, on a mylo, we need to take our best shot at scum. Both Tube and Exo have gotten numerous townreads and seem to be helping town so taking a chance on one of them is risky. After HTS diving into Rso's case against me, along with just about every post so far, I'm more convinced HTS is our safest townread. That leaves us down to JJB, Scott, Celestial. Left me start by saying I'm not necessarily scumming all 3 of them. I thought I made a good point with my game balance argument and now that Cop claimed, I'm even less sure that Town would have a Vet, Cop AND Medic. Can someone please explain to me how that is balanced? However, RSo being killed during her questioning ExO and being the strongest opposition to a Celestial lynch today makes me think one of two possibilities, which sucks because I don't want to wind myself in circles. 1) Framing ExO and letting the mislynch of Celestial happen with no opposition. This seems to be the painfully obvious scum move, though. It almost seems too easy to figure out if I'M the one figuring it out. uhh...I feel like I was opposing the Celestial lynch as well...well for today anyway. Unless I'm mistaken HTS agrees. + Show Spoiler + 2) Scum has shown that they're not stupid, up to this point. So has Celestial. It doesn't seem impossible to me that Celestial will still flip scum. . I thought I made a good point with my game balance argument and now that Cop claimed, I'm even less sure that Town would have a Vet, Cop AND Medic. Can someone please explain to me how that is balanced? However, RSo being killed during her questioning ExO and being the strongest opposition to a Celestial lynch today makes me think one of two possibilities, which sucks because I don't want to wind myself in circles. 1) Framing ExO and letting the mislynch of Celestial happen with no opposition. This seems to be the painfully obvious scum move, though. It almost seems too easy to figure out if I'M the one figuring it out. 2) Scum has shown that they're not stupid, up to this point. So has Celestial. It doesn't seem impossible to me that Celestial will still flip scum. Could they have thought ahead enough that we'd write off the ExO framing as too obvious and therefore not plausible, gaining ExO more credit and protection? And killing RSo assuming we'd follow her "Celestial is a bad lynch today" theory, gaining a little credit for a 2nd member, as well. Unfortunately I can't chalk that up to anything more than tin foil theory or pure paranoia. But at Mylo, i see no sense in holding back ANY of my thoughts. expand a little more on this. You know I love tin foil hats. + Show Spoiler + Jar Jar was somewhat scummy to me at one point, and his numbers did confuse me, but he was never top scum for me. I also don't see the sense in him killing RSo right after she started leaning town on him. If you're scum, why kill someone who went from attacking you to possibly towning you? That being said, I need to see where his posts are at today. As for Scott, hes a replacement. Nothing to go off besides his entrance and case on me today, which I'd like to address. What threw you off about me defending you? Everyone's case on LS was weak...he died town. As for your vote, they were talking about a specific quote basically saying you would not change without a defense and probably not even then. I also defended you on this point, well except the underlined portion really. + Show Spoiler + I agree my filter isn't the biggest and it likely won't ever be. Perks of being forced to post and read on a tablet 95% of my posts. Also, what's up with the fluff post? Although I do appreciate HTS diving into RSo's case on me to make it clearer, I didn't find it necessary to quote the whole thing just to say thank you. It reads to me as "Thank you, strong town read, for elaborating a case on a townie I'd like to see die to win." Also, your reads aren't the strongest, considering you called mine weak. All of your town reads have already been strongly towned by other town reads. It seems all you had to do was run with those reads and find a thread each to back it up. Not hard when you're playing catch up. I have no fear discussing anything and everything I've done and said up until now. + Show Spoiler + I'm pretty sure if you look into my small filter, you see me address the bluehunting comment on RSo. Twice. So however wrong I may have been about her doing it and how to spot it, it was I who was being cautious of bluehunting on Day 1. I thank you for the all in. I must reiterate incase you think this is enough, that we do need some more. If you can answer more questions that would rock. Be around a little more, talk a little more, bleed town a little more. If you are town, it should be easy to show. You obviously know enough to what a towny looks like. + Show Spoiler + Oh and no, I'm not new. However, I will admit this is the most active game I've ever played, by far. This has definitely been a learning experience for me. Seriously, though, lynch me and we lose. I'd rather not lose my first ever TL Mafia game, especially without a single scum flip. Note: this post was written at work over the last few hours, with another tab opened up and updating the thread as I continued typing so some of my thoughts brewing while others were in response to recent posts. If anything needs clarification, please let me know. | ||
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Tubesock
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1. ? 2. ? 3. ? | ||
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why'd you pick this post as a town example of me? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?page=33#659 | ||
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 On January 12 2015 09:58 jarjarbinks wrote: + Show Spoiler + Is this the question I was avoiding? SO. I think at the time the chances of hitting mafia were 30% if no one ever talked or derived anything from votes/nightkills. If I just randomly pulled a name out of a hat (of the 10 people alive I was talking about), then 3 times out of 10 we would hit a scum. The additional %'s points I added were due to votes. The first day I decided that since both people that died voted and then changed to bandwagon, I figured it would work to pretend that was two different votes. So I believe LS was in the 48ish range? hard to remember honestly. I could go look back, but I will keep going for time's sake. so 48% was the 30% plus the additional 16%. I added 2% based on my thoughts. So lets looks at LS vs say HTS. I subtracted 2-3% on HTS so HTS was 27%. In my mind at the time, HTS had a 27% of being scum. (Looks much worse to me now obviously because there's only 4 real options left.) LS had a 48% chance. 48 vs. 27. So generally I would rather vote for LS over HTS on whatever day that was. Day 2? I think it was day 2. In my model I'm trying to be as accurate as possible. That means that my top lynch target probably won't have a 90% chance ever.+ Show Spoiler + 48% is very high for day 2 in my opinion. I definitely was on track with most of you thinking LS was bad. I hope this cleared something up. If not ask more questions and I'll answer. Two of his posts and 18 minutes later: On January 12 2015 10:16 jarjarbinks wrote: + Show Spoiler + So long story short: My thoughts and %'s on people. 65% is the BASELINE (75% chance to land mafia with 4 people minus 10% chance of silverarte hitting godfather on exo or tube) 1. Shining 89% + Show Spoiler + 2. Celestial 67% 3. HTS 67% 4. Scott 65% I don't have the others. I don't see a need to go down the list right now either. I will post some more later. I realize this time is the most important. I put my opinions of people in that percentage. That was funny I don't care who you are. Now, more seriously: On January 07 2015 02:02 jarjarbinks wrote: + Show Spoiler + Singular posts that are suspicious to me (Ignore my lack of knowledge on the English language if you can!)- Shining- Based off 1 past game, I could see Shining’s posts on here being similar to when she was mafia last game. Really weak case though, as I’ve only played with Shining once. I could see her defending her way out of my suspicion, since it is a weak case and Shining has prodded several different people as well as defended herself in the past. Tubesock- If I was a mafia, I would be playing like tubesock. First posts are shallowish, then stepped it up when told to. I haven’t thought his recent posts have been that great, they mostly follow up other’s ideas. It would be posts I could see myself posting if I wanted to post more. Plus he is off Celestial’s scum-list, which does worry me that he will be off other’s as well. A solid defense against my suspicion would be that tubesock is new and is now more confident in posting than he was at the beginning. He has also made analysis, just not at the level as others in my opinion. I don’t think Tubesock would be a smart day 1 lynch because I think we could figure him out later because of the amount of posts he has been posting. + Show Spoiler + Silverarte- If I had to choose someone who was playing similar to LS that wasn’t LS it would be Silverarte. Silverarte has no relative suspicion in comparison to LS which makes me suspicious! Gumdrop- Lack of posts. Most people have given him a pass which isn’t good in my opinion. He has gotten some votes though, despite me seeing myself as an easier target than gumdrop. A good defense against my suspicion would be his last post, which I thought was pretty good. LS- I would file LS as suspicious but someone I would want to not lynch day 1. He has the attention of people, and he posts a lot. I think it should be easier to determine him mafia later on IF he is mafia. I think it would be easier to get backing from others as well based on what I have read on here so far. Suspicions on collaboration (I think it would be stupid to collaborate as mafia day 1, but what do I know): Celestial-Exo: Small hints of collaboration. If I was mafia, I think the best person to estabilish my credibility as town would be Celestial. Have generally agreed with all of their posts. Both went after LS. Rsoultin-Silverarte-LS-me if you would like: Rsoultin generally makes good logical arguments from what I have seen from her and from personal experience. It is very easy to bandwagon her points. Silverarte, LS, and I have all done that already. Silverarte has been on her side since the beginning. You can attribute that to them being friends. LS did bandwagon on Rsoultins ideas, but you could attribute that to LS’s defense. Still worth noting for now. People I’m generally scared of: Celestial- Established great credibility day 1. Your writing style is very similar to a very established economist professor’s. If I was good at this game and was mafia, establishing credibility would be a top priority. Rsoultin- Very good at prodding and generating very logical arguments against people. Which means, if mafia, would be very good at it. Can prod and generate arguments about fallacies in people’s posts remarkably well. If she is mafia, I will have a difficult time reading it and a difficult time trying to convince others of it. People I think are least scummy: HTS-Good analysis and limited posts make it hard for me to be suspicious. Exo- great prodder early day and seems to be flinging scum everywhere. I would try to do this as scum (I think I’d have a better shot at this over establishing credibility lol). I also like that he tried to generate others to talk more (I’m such a hypocrite). Plus, people have been suspicious of him. That makes me a little more at ease about not being suspicious of him just in case he truly is mafia. He’s fully capable of analyzing without his formula. He really avoided offering any reads with something we could read or use. If I were to meta it, I would give a town point though. If I were used to playing games that complete in 17 pages, I'd definitely use formulas or something over talking and behavior analysis. BUT he didn't/doesn't care enough to see how this approach doesn't work in this type of game, with these players, mechanics etc. On January 07 2015 02:14 jarjarbinks wrote: + Show Spoiler + List of Scum: #1: Shining #2: Tube #3: Silver #4: Waffle #5: LS Reread the bold in the earlier spoiler quote. He scums Shining for what reasons? Then cites what I think are much stronger reasons on me, yet I’m less scummy than Shining? What the what? He also never comes at me. I even ask him to, a couple of times. He continually avoided me. Not till now when if he doesn't he knows he dies. Is this the part (below) where Jarjarbinks "demonstrates" towny behavior due to fearless posting? On January 12 2015 12:27 jarjarbinks wrote: + Show Spoiler + You are my favorite player in this game silver! I hope we play more games together if you like this stuff. I think I will keep playing if my sis plays and people will allow me to play with them =D Hmm your question about Shining is hard for me to answer. I am overwhelmed by your contradiction with that ginormous -2% correction. Whoa... Whoa. *Later revises to 3% + Show Spoiler + You gain a lot by lying. For example, as soon as you said that I automatically assumed both you are town as well as tube and exo. I can see why you picked those two to check as well, unlike celestial. But IF you are a liar, then you exonerate yourself completely as well as at least one of your counterparts. Hard for us to guess right 3 times when in the back of our minds we have already decided that 2 mafia are town. Real cop could counterclaim, but there might not even be a cop in this case. ...blah blah... To be EVEN MORE CONTRADICTORY, ...blah...blah..+ Show Spoiler + I will have my updated reads soon, but my past ones are definitely not final. I did not account for claims in my case studies because I didn't want to actually read the 100 pages of crap in each mafia game on here. For this reason, I don't see that it is right to apply those cases to a claim. I didn't do it with celestial on day 2, I don't feel I should do it here. Also, I feel like I am being too confident in what I have found via case study. I don't have enough of them to really base everything 80%-90% of my vote on it. I'm debating whether to give myself more sway based on my thoughts and what you guys have said. Silver, Exo, Tube, Celestial. Whats your scum list look like these days? Obviously not reading the thread enough to have any idea what I want to see before I town someone: On January 12 2015 10:01 jarjarbinks wrote: Motivation to....post long posts? Answer your questions? I'm generally lost on this. His last few posts were in a relative flurry for his activity. At least I think so. He sees town is in a desparate moment and on the cusp of losing the game. He sees this, and does want to win the game. If he were town, he'd see what we need and change his approach to try to help us win. He'd read and pay attention to the what people want. Check The Shinings posts lately. The Shining is laying it all out there. He's trying to help. Jarjar is "trying" too. "I'm generally lost on this." is basically, "I AM MAFIA! I AM MAFIA! I AM MAFIA!" | ||
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On January 12 2015 15:23 jarjarbinks wrote: Man Shining, I'm completely convinced you are town! Like seriously, your posts since day 1 have been very good. + Show Spoiler + These are my lists... I made one for if silver is telling the truth and one if she isn't. I didn't include either because if silver is telling the truth, she should be on the list. If she IS lying, then she definitely is mafia. I really think she is telling the truth though. On the crap model (I gave myself a 3% buffer this time), I think the best way is to compare the numbers and see the drop-offs. This is % chance they are evil. IF lying (there would be only 2 mafia in this list, as silver would be a 3rd): 1. Exo (54%) 2. Shining (36%) 3. Tube (33%) 4. HTS(32%) 5. Gum/Scott, Gum/Celestial (30%) 6. JarJarBinks (29% you can add or subtract 3% here. I left it at 0) IF Silver=cop (3 mafia in this one): 1. Shining (67%) 2. HTS (64%) 3.(tie) Celestial, Gum/Scott (61%) 3. JarJarBinks (add or subtract 3% based on how you feel) 4. Exo (35%) 5. Tube (10%) O.K. so trying to explain my thoughts derived from this. I apologize to you if this is confusing and/or it seems like I'm hiding behind numbers. Think of it like I'm literally running to them because you guys are all confusing...lol People to look at: *because he can't be bothered to EXO!+ Show Spoiler + Silver copped him day 1. 1/11 chance she cops him and he's Godfather. Based on his actions, he's above a 1/3 chance! That's craaaaaazy. Look at the difference between him and Tube there. There's people scumreading Exo on here as well. LS (partially why his rank is so high in the first place) and Rsoultin both read him before they died. ExO has been a really good town. If he is in fact mafia then mafia deserves to win. How sad is it that mafia was towniest of our town? Shining I really think Shining is good guys. My model definitely doesn't. I did subtract 3% on both lists. I think I made an error on my last post of putting him at 90%.*89%, he did say it's impossible to hit 90% + Show Spoiler + I think I added Exo's points to Shining's 65% baseline (Exo was at 9% without his points added). If someone will kill roleblock in lynch and silver gets a shot at looking at someone, this is who I would suggest. WOULD CLEAR A LOT OF THINGS UP. That on top of seeing the lynch flip could secure our victory. HTS: + Show Spoiler + I'm going to be honest, I added 3% on HTS. Is HTS being helpful? Yes. DO I think she is capable of being helpful but also steering us in the wrong direction without us knowing it. YES! 100 times yes! HTS you are very good at this game. I will probably always be suspicious of you when in doubt. Same goes with my sister... lolz Same as ExO. + Show Spoiler + Gum/Scott: I didn't add much of anything on Gum/Scott. Honestly this is my read. Gum comes in playing 1 game before? Sees he's town. Doesn't care tooo much. He sees how everyones bashing people who can't scumread well (LS,waffle,me) and says PEACE. If he WAS mafia, the lack of suspicion despite him being inactive would prob. be enough to keep him in the game. Scott comes in and sees what he is. He sees the dire situation we are in and digs deep. He reads 58 pages of debating and makes some very good cases, trying to make an impact. All that being said, since gum never voted for anyone that died or get voted for by anyone that died, he is the townist one of us all in my model. Huh. Interesting. All that hating on inactives and got 0 votes. Instead we kill our vet and another towny both who were more active despite all the inactive hating. ME! I hope you saw me on the lists. Move me around 3% as much as you will. If you don't like %, then pretend they are points. This is a game of golf, towniest people have the low scores. I HAVE been using numbers. Without a detailed description of my "crap" I could see why you would be suspicious. I AM TOWN (I should probably say that more...). If you lynch me, I hope you remember how I act for if we play again. I probably won't act much different, besides the scumread thing as a punishment (that got a lot of hate lolz). Anyways, before I call it a night I wanted to talk about silver's claim. I believe her. She wasn't in trouble really, and it was a good time to claim. If there was no cop, mafia wouldn't randomly claim in my opinion. It doesn't exactly help them to have their (probably) least suspicious person claim cop with over a day to go. It could be a ploy, but it seems like you would be taking a lot of risk for not much of a reward. Plus if this is a newb game, I could see the moderator at least having veteran and cop (and medic too if that's real). More roles help us learn right? Learning might be as important as balance in this game right? O.K. work is tomorrow for me. Gotta pay the bills lol It is raining outside, who knows I might get a delay/snowday! If not, I will try to check at b-fast and lunch as well as get home before EOD. IF all fails, I'll try to step out of work to read and vote in real fast if something crazy happens. If I find you all lynch trained me, then pretend I made this giant rant about how none of you can make any reads before you see I flip town. I would also say "better dead here then dead at the core." It would have no quotes on people or scumreads either....lolz My vote is for Shining (but I think he's town!) for now. I really am unsure of this vote, please try to convince me that this isn't a good vote. I will change it if I think it is a good idea. Top switch targets for me would be Exo and HTS. I hope this clears some things up when you are thinking about my thoughts. Mesa sorry for the brain power you probably lost trying to get through it all lol I can't figure out how to set the sarcasm font up to highlight those areas. Although, I may as well select all. | ||
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Tubesock
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On January 12 2015 21:19 jarjarbinks wrote: Tube i am reading the thread enough. I dont think you would ever town me. Your last posts ddid makeme laugh tho. My point is and it applies equally to -Celestial- is that a town wouldn't care what 1 person thinks. It's flattering that you think I'm influential enough to just boss ExO_ and Half the Sky around and that they'd follow. A town, would make a case trying to help town (look at Shining) and appeal to the thread. You post a sarcastic and funny post that blatantly shows you know your formula doesn't work. -Celestial- is godfather. A cop check on a unCC'd player IS coming, and it would be insanely reckless to think it would be safe to fakeclaim without knowing you will check green. I'm very thankful Silverarte didn't check Celestial earlier, it probably would have lost us the game. I'm equally happy with voting Celestial or Jarjar. I'm certain they are mafia. | ||
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On January 12 2015 02:56 scott31337 wrote: Unless Shining and Silverarte step up to the plate today, Yes. Have Shining and Silverarte stepped up to the plate? | ||
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ExO is a 100% correct. | ||
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On January 13 2015 07:42 jarjarbinks wrote: sorry tube that was offensive. They just work better than your reads. You are probably smarter than me after all. Haha, nah, I think you're actually probably way smarter in reality. It's just I'm more towny. | ||
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