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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On December 13 2014 15:54 batsnacks wrote: You lowered your standards for me after a game where none of my reads were wrong? Lies and slander! You tried to lynch me. Twice! >> You and Damdred. Hurts my heart. That said he did play well...apart from the whole, helpful not coming across scummy part, lol. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On December 13 2014 16:02 batsnacks wrote: Not that this is relevant, but I only tried to lynch you, and HTS, because my read on kush was right. That was literally the only reason. For the first one, yes. And yeah, you read kush, I read HTS, and battle of the stubborns. Only you had Damdred on your side. The traitor ;o; Anyhow, the actual point that I derailed myself from was I've learned to be less quick to jump down you're throat, especially if you're making reads. Even if you do sound grumpy or irritated when you're making them. That's probably part of what SL is referring to, too. So, good thing, yeah? For you anyway xP | ||
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rsoultin
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- HF - GB - Ritoky - Tube - FF - random bats vote on HTS - Oats <- Viva Trfel, those are the ones ppl are voting on right now...if you're looking for places to start | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On December 13 2014 16:58 Vivax wrote: It bugs me that he sees it as semi confirmed that Damdred got killed by a present, and then something about the vig that doesn't make sense. Only mafia knows who their KP hit, so it gave me the impression of TMI since he seems so confident about what he says. Eh, I'll let him speak to that. Everyone speaks before they think things through sometimes, and everyone makes assumptions, however SL tends to do both quite frequently. If you're saying that's enough to scumread him...I'd respectfully disagree. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
The seeming personality change from Day 1 to Day 2 I can kind of see but...what is the case on this guy? This smacks of picking random arbitrary reasons to lynch people again, and if we keep doing that, we might as well just be throwing darts at a dartboard. Or just give up now lol and cede the game. Someone voting on Tube, help me out...what am I missing? Also, if we're talking about scumslipping for him, why aren't we talking about it for me? I pointed out to SL how he broadcasted that he was turning his present over to Damdred...which would make him a good target for a KS beyond being a claimed named VT. I must be missing something because this wagon isn't really making sense to me. @Tube Dude, when people ask you for scumreads they generally want you to explain why, and making pre-flipped associations (associations that so and so is scum because someone over there is also scum, when neither have been revealed as scum yet) doesn't tend to hold a lot of weight. If you can explain yourself, that would be great. Sidenote: I think (correct me if I'm wrong here) Oats' point is lynching FF as a plynch doesn't make sense with his filter length. Lynching him for a case involving scumtells, and we have a good deal of material to work with, would be a good thing. I'm still reading him as null, perhaps null-leaning scum for not contributing a whole lot to the convos, but not like OMG you're SCUMMY. Can anyone make a case against him who thinks he's a good lynch? | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On December 14 2014 00:04 Xatalos wrote: I don't really see anyone as "100% scum" right now. We'll just have to go with the best options and hopefully gain more information from the wagons and flips (especially after we get our first scum flip). There should be quite a few Mafia with this many players so it's actually a bit peculiar that so many people feel relatively townish/null, but I feel like we're pretty much guaranteed to hit scum within Tube/FF and we can go from there. It's not just the scumslip with Tube. He's significantly altered his playstyle twice now - once after the first NK's and again now that there's a wagon on him. It doesn't seem like something natural for a townie to do. His reads are also pretty much senseless and apparently pulled out of thin air. He still hasn't clarified his reads... Is he hunting for scum? No, he's just listing scumreads without any logic that gan be grasped (by me at least). What's your own "slip"? I don't completely follow. I don't think you have to always mention the possibility of someone being scum if he seems townish enough and has claimed on top of it. FF is partly a policy lynch, I guess. He's clearly making no effort to be actually helpful and he'll never be a townread, so he'd be a massive danger at LYLO even as town. Besides, he's done several things that are scum-motivated (like claiming credit for being on the 27nb wagon despite just ninja/sheepvoting it close to deadline, voting for 27nb and then weirdly ignoring her after the claim/unclaim stuff, overall not showing any interest in scumhunting unless pressured). No, I can't say that I feel 100% about anyone either, but some seem pretty scummy vice just sorta scummy, so either I'm the only one seeing/feeling that (which either means I'm wrong and seeing things where they aren't (possible)/not explaining myself well (also possible) or ppl are getting lost in the thread and going with comfortable/are scum themselves). GB, for instance. I won't say I'm 100% on him, but I did have an itching suspicion he might be a role (not because he half-claimed it, but because he kept delaying his reads like something else might inform it) but calling for a mass role reveal multiple times...yuck. No power role would want that. No plugged-in townie would think that was a good idea. Tube...yeah he's weird. Granted. And the personality changes. I'd only half-noticed the second one, but figured that was just cause people beat him up for the Slam talk weirdness and he actually personally insulted Slam in there. But it's his first game, so him not knowing how to give reads is possible. I get the feeling that as long as he's trying he's probably not our best lynch, at least for today. SL accused me of "slipping" because I could trace his convo and see where he hinted strongly that Damdred would be the one receiving his present. Also mentioning that mafia could easily target him to take that out of play, since essentially at the time he was the only "revealed" power role. Along with Ritoky (though it could be argued that since he said he'd open it and Damdred made no such claim, could have been waiting to see if it killed him or not...I still think the claim itself is scummy for reasons previously stated). As for FF...would we even know when we're in LYLO? Most all of your points could be explained by apathy...just feels more policy than anything. I guess my main problem with most of the wagons right now is they're not strongly supported and I see players that we could actually make a relatively solid case against. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On December 14 2014 00:43 GlowingBear wrote: Ok, now that I'm sober (although extremely hangover), and before I continue with the case on Holyflare, I want to say a word about presents. Although talking about the power presents give is useless, there is an important thing about its mechanics that we should consider: Mafia is unlikely to give presents to town + Show Spoiler [Why?] + They have 66% chance of giving a important power to town. That said, if a mafia holds a present, he is most likely to give it to a partner and not opening it until they can see if the present town holds is the death one. Town, in the other hand, will give it to anyone day1 and the townie will most likely open it because they have a very good chance of opening a power present. This means: If damdred opened a present and flipped town, sicklucker is most likely town. If ritoky claims he's got a present and that he is opening it, he's most likely town, because mafia would hold it and give to another partner to see if that was the death present or not. There is no motive for mafia to say they will open it, since that, if they open the death present, they will flip mafia anyway, so ritoky's explanation actually looks fair. That's it guys. Btw, no mass claiming. It was a bad idea of mine. I've just realised mafia will have problems with so many possible powers against them. Nice recant. Took you long enough. I'm not the first one to say no, that's stupid, just one of the first to scumread you for the mass role claim. You're still ignoring my comment that Mafia is fully capable of fake claiming the opening of a present (and what was Ritoky's main excuse, that it would be dumb to open a present as mafia if it could be the kill present?), claim that he had a KS, then follow through because mafia does have a KS. That said, I'm comfortable waiting to see if he dies tonight, if no one else who was scumreading him Day 1 feels inclined to do the same today because they think he's a stupid (or crafty) town. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On December 14 2014 00:50 GlowingBear wrote: Rsoultin, here is an example where mass claiming won the game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/462188-iv-titanic-mafia-it-has-been-a-privilege So, really, scumreading me for that is silly. Scumreading you for it on Day 2 when mafia still has all their KSs is not silly when you consider that a large number of town without roles have already claimed and you were calling for masons and ghosts. It is also very scummy because we do not know the number of any given role in the game. Don't play dumb with me GB. You're not drunk anymore. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On December 14 2014 00:49 Xatalos wrote: So you think GB is the most likely scum? I agree that he's done somewhat fishy stuff like asking for roleclaims and such. You'd need to convince me about that "close to 100% scum" though... He also made that HF case after all (at least partly lol). I wouldn't really call what Tube's been doing as "trying". He basically disappeared when I asked him to explain his reads. Before that he didn't really do anything noteworthy. I think your argument against ritoky was that it wouldn't be so easy to validate him being town after this. I think you're missing the point that when ritoky claimed, even in the worst case scenario <b>(if all the presents except the one given to Damdred were in scum hands)</b> ritoky would be risking either 1) the 33% risk of immediately dying or 2) the 50% risk of being counter-claimed and dying if he fakeclaimed opening it. I think both risks are unbearable for scum when easily the best approach seems to be just to hide it. Well, the ABSOLUTELY worst scenario would be that sicklucker is scum too and Mafia knew everything about the presents and thus could safely fakeclaim. But then why would sicklucker pass it on to town (Damdred)? And why would they claim at all especially in the stupid way that ritoky did? Apathy is usually associated to scum though it's not excluded to them. The LM case I think also points at more than just apathy for FF.... His stance on 27nb during D1 is so unnatural. If all the presents except the one given to Damdred were in scum hands, let's follow this logic train, yes? They kill Damdred who obviously had the present and can't pass it on to someone else until the next day. Now they can claim what they want because no one can CC them. It's not a wild and crazy theory. It does assume that Ritoky isn't stupid/suicidal. I've already acknowledged I have an anti-idiot bias, but I'd rather play that way than assume that no one's actions mean anything because no one is ever thinking. -shrugs- | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
My impression was ritoky and GB were already being scumread (ritoky more than GB) so it was a gamble. My impression may be wrong. I can see a legitimacy ploy (just like bussing a fellow mafia) if a mafia member is being scumread. And no, GB, I don't. Masons narrows down who might have roles for scum. Scum can claim named VTs if they want or go with the whole we don't know how many could be this role card if questioned about claiming something more powerful. I feel it's better for masons to only claim if they're in danger of being lynched. | ||
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rsoultin
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That said, I don't have strong scum reads on others, is the problem. Lots of questions, nulls, nulls leaning scum, nulls leaning town. A few stronger town reads. It's hard to know much without at least one flipped scum. That's why I keep pressing on my strong scum reads. I'd rather lynch them than question marks. There are too many questions marks for the LYLO argument to sit well with me...we'll never get to them all before town loses lol. | ||
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rsoultin
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rsoultin
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It's not far off from EoD and there are a very small number of people in the thread right now so...if folks think I'm wrong about GB and/or participation stays down like this I think the best of the other names brought forward is probably Trfel. I did want to give him the benefit of the doubt another day, but to be frank, (pure policy and meta here, bleh) his sheer lack of presence in this thread is by far the most different from what I've seen of his play vice the other lurkers. His reads seemed strange to me, too, as I recall...town can be wrong, but for someone who can be pretty analytical they seem very lacking. I don't think he's talked about anything but not lynching FF...and not being able to keep up with the thread. Similarly to GB, I also see a lot of promises on reads that never get followed through on. Worse than GB actually. He's got less than a 1-page filter, which normally I'd be inclined to ignore, but...that's ridiculous for this game. By contrast Oats only has 3 pages, but most of his posts you can seem him keeping things on topic, pushing discussion, questioning reads and pointing out logic flaws. So, if/when it comes time for vote consolidation, I will be changing my vote to Trfel over Tube or FF. | ||
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rsoultin
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On December 14 2014 03:25 batsnacks wrote: I voted Holyflare since no one wants to lynch Trfel with me. I will lynch Trfel with you since I think my scum reads are probably dead in the water lol >< | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On December 14 2014 03:37 GlowingBear wrote: Make a case on me. You're calling me scum multiple times for things that doesn't make me scum. I want you to say mafias motivation for things you call me scum for. I've made my case on you multiple times GB. Unlike you I am not under scrutiny. I've explained what I think and why I think it. As for the gut feel that is contributing to it...what have you really done for town? Falsely brought up mass-claiming like that would be helpful. A bunch of jokes. A bunch of partial reads you have to be prodded on. Many promises you fail to carry out. (Your HF case is still unfinished.) Ritoky you were pressuring a little until others started...which, if you're town, why are you pressuring the guy you think is town (cause you're not going to send anything to mafia as town) then flip right back onto HF as soon as others start pressuring Ritoky? There's something wrong about how you're playing, and the scenario with both you and Ritoky as scum works. It is ballsy like Xata said...but assuming that mafia would never play ballsy...lol. If this is the way town thinks, that's the perfect way for mafia to play. Either way its WIFOM as shit. | ||
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rsoultin
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On December 14 2014 03:47 Trfel wrote: As for vanishing in the thread, it was after 3 AM. I needed sleep. I'll be back after lunch. Again, if anyone has any questions for me, I'm happy to answer. Give me something other than no don't lynch FF or excuse number 9999...or however many posts (less than 20) you've posted so far this game. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On December 14 2014 03:52 GlowingBear wrote: You're so focused on this matter that you fail to properly evaluate what I've brought for holyflare. What do you think of the case? Of the arguments? Why do you think mafia would make a case on one of the strongest players in the game? Do you see ANY mafia motivation behind it? I thought ritoky was mafia. I reevaluated it after putting more thought on it, mostly when I've realised HF is sure to be scum. I'm saying people are town based on gut feelings and probability. I have experience with some players here and I feel comfortable after I see some patterns. Like batsnacks, his townplay is like this. Slam also. It's hard to explain why, because it's more of a feeling than logical reads. I've townread you for the way you evaluated the present thing on sicklucker. I'm still reading you as town. I want you to get out of the tunnel you're currently in. I've already responded to your case GB. Your town reads I'm not arguing with, in a general sense. Your points aren't very strong to me. Sorry. I did consider them. An entrance post and a different read on 27nb than vivax doesn't scream scum to me. I feel like you're mostly basing your HF read on the fact that he wasn't killed first night, and going from there. I'm not the only one with tunnel vision. Yet I am willing to back off you for now to pursue another possible scum, so...-shrugs- We could both be town firing away erroneously, but I still don't think so. I don't understand town giving someone they think is mafia a present, dude...you should want to give it to one of your strongest town reads. You yourself have made this point multiple times. Anyway, Trfel. What do you think of that push since we're probably not going to agree on this. | ||
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rsoultin
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On December 14 2014 04:08 Vivax wrote: rsoultin: You clearly didn't read what kita wrote, else you wouldn't be saying this. D1 he made a too scummy to be scum defense of bunnies, said at some point "I'm not really defending her", just pre-lynch he says "Meh I don't really mind if she dies" and who was his scumread throughout this? Froggynoddy. As for his interactions with froggy on D1, we have a grand total of 1, one, ONE question directed to him that lacks followup and looks completely pointless: "So are you saying you have no strong reads either way". And with that being said, your post I'm quoting displays you didn't read Oats as carefully as you claim but instead try to depict him in a favourable light for I don't know what reason. Viva, let me be frank. I have trusted you less and less over your last several posts. Froggynoddy has barely participated so I'd like to see where anyone has had extensive interaction with him. Oats is hard for me to read, but he has made some pretty damn good points this game. One that just so happens to be against your NK analysis FF push, which I have to agree with. Your push makes too many false assumptions. You also seem very laissez faire about trfel which I find hard to believe in town who has played with him before. Xata I trust. I won't say why right now, beyond he seems to be thinking things through, even if our opinions differ. You just keep calling ppl scum when they disagree, and rather than addressing my trfel case you're nitpicking the sidebar that examines the difference between a short filter with nothing and a short filter that actually contributes something to the game. | ||
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rsoultin
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Trfel anyone? | ||
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rsoultin
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It's cool that you're laying things on the line, but can you talk to any of the other votes going on? | ||
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