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TL Mafia LXIX: Carol Of The Bells - Page 24

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
December 21 2014 05:42 GMT
#4694
Also, just for the record, the fact that I'm even willing to vote HF today and am not pushing GB at all is a step back. A step back does not necessarily mean that I will just sheep whatever you say/do -_- I'm not sure why you're so intent on me agreeing with you, anyway.
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
December 21 2014 14:01 GMT
#4701
@ Xata

Could you please give me reads on Oats, Slam and GB?

@ GB

Same, only Oats, Slam and Xata?

The same way Slam gave them is fine, really. Doesn't have to be fancy at all.

Also, I know the following isn't like a major shocker or anything given the fit and the tunnel vision this dude has, but he can't even be assed to make a post in the thread at all? Not even just a, you guys stupid; vote HF?

On December 21 2014 16:55 liancourt wrote:
##vote hf


I saw him do this yesterday, but held off just in case he planned on making a follow-up post in here.
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
December 21 2014 14:06 GMT
#4702
On December 21 2014 22:58 Xatalos wrote:
Oh, it might even be LYLO right now? Then I think we definitely shouldn't lynch for "information" or something equally stupid. Let's just lynch the player with the highest chance of flipping scum. Probably Templar... But luckily there's still quite a bit of time left to make that decision.


We've got 12 players still. If it's LYLO that's a shit ton of scum in the wings. Though I will say it doesn't look like anyone's lynching for "information" but lian.

What do you think of FF? I'm a fan of the most simple explanation theory, which means either you were protected/RBd and are actually scum...or he is scum and was RBd last night, and is trying to throw the blame on someone else. If he's town, there is no reason for him to lie about who he took a shot at.
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
December 21 2014 14:27 GMT
#4706
On December 15 2014 07:58 Trfel wrote:
Ok, a few thoughts at the end of the night. I'm not going to go super deep into this, since the nightkills do provide information that can be useful, but here's my thinking. I'm also not going to call someone super scummy or clean right before a bunch of new information comes out, for obvious reasons.

Vivax

Vivax seems... strange. I'm not really sure what to make of it.

The first thing to note is, he has been making a lot of reads. From looking at his filter, here's what I found.
+ Show Spoiler [Vivax's Reads] +
suspicious of 27ninjabunnies
suspicious of ritoky
suspicious of Tubesock
suspicious of KelsierSC
suspicious of Xatalos
suspicious of rsoultin
no longer suspicious of Xatalos
suspicious of batsnacks
less suspicious of batsnacks
suspicious of Fecalfeast
suspicious of Trfel
suspicious of GlowingBear
suspicious of The_Templar
suspicious of Oatsmaster
suspicious of Holyflare
suspicious of Xatalos

I think that this is just a playstyle, and not a sign of being mafia. It's not good or bad. Also, his reads are all well-explained and what he is doing makes sense to me. Really, I don't see any signs of him being scum here. Except, his play leading up to the day 2 lynch deadline has felt a bit off to me.

On page 120, GlowingBear posts Part 2 of his case on Holyflare. The full case summary is posted on page 121. On page 122, I post a case on KelsierSC. Vivax posts a few pages after this, but doesn't respond to either case. Then he mentions the Holyflare case on page 125 and says he is tempted to go for it, and then votes for Holyflare on page 126. No mention of the KelsierSC case at all, despite being suspicious of him earlier in the game. On page 129, I post a response to GlowingBear's case, hoping for a response from one of the GlowingBear voters. Vivax posts like this:
Show nested quote +
On December 14 2014 07:34 Vivax wrote:
Lynch HF

Show nested quote +
On December 14 2014 07:41 Vivax wrote:
On December 14 2014 07:35 Trfel wrote:
On December 14 2014 07:34 Vivax wrote:
Lynch HF

I would love to. Please tell me why, other than linking GlowingBear's post.
Cause I read his post and it convinced me, nothing else really.

No reference at all to the KelsierSC case, no original reasons for lynching Holyflare, no response to the criticism I presented of the Holyflare case, no sign of the critical thinking and analytical Vivax that I saw throughout the rest of the game. The only town explanation I can come up with for Vivax is that he was reading sporadically and missed my repeated questions on GlowingBear's case, and really was that convinced by GlowingBear's case that he didn't mention the KelsierSC case in an attempt to gather support for lynching Holyflare instead.

I'm very hesitant to call Vivax mafia for this. It's the only suspicious thing I see in his filter, while the rest of his play seems to be searching for mafia and being constructive. In the end I leave him at null/town, but he is definitely on my watch list.
______________________________________________________________________________________________
batsnacks

It's sort of the same thing for batsnacks.

The fact that I tried to get batsnacks lynched last game for not providing scumreads and him ending up being town is still heavily in the back of my mind. So I'm not going to try and get a read on him, but here's some thoughts.

Batsnacks makes an early read on Half the Sky, and his reasons for this read have been heavily criticized. I still think this read makes him seem a bit towny, but I could be wrong. His push on LightningStrike is good, too.

Batsnacks clearly noticed that I posted a case on KelsierSC, and he put KelsierSC into his "would lynch" list. His vote remained on Holyflare, and he seemed desperate to get people to switch from KelsierSC to Holyflare. He never provided comments on the KelsierSC case, either.
Show nested quote +
On December 14 2014 07:42 batsnacks wrote:
On December 14 2014 07:41 Trfel wrote:
Switching to Holyflare because of a gut call. It's hard to explain. If someone really wants me to, I can try though.


^ ppl voting KSC

______________________________________________________________________________________________
GlowingBear

I don't have a big read on GlowingBear yet. I am just including him here because he pushed on Holyflare over KelsierSC, and it would seem incomplete if I mentioned Vivax and batsnacks without mentioning GlowingBear.

The main reason I find GlowingBear's push on Holyflare instead of KelsierSC less suspicious than the two previous cases is that GlowingBear acknowledged the KelsierSC case and said that he was fine with a KelsierSC lynch.
______________________________________________________________________________________________
Fecalfeast

I've been defending Fecalfeast a bit throughout day 2. I suppose that was the first controversial read I made all game, since I only started seriously being suspicious of KelsierSC midway through day 2. Anyway, I maintain that Fecalfeast's play seems to be poor town instead of inactive mafia. He should be on a relatively short leash, though.
______________________________________________________________________________________________
sicklucker

I said I wouldn't make meta reads. Well, here's a meta read. The main reason is because I tend to have trouble understanding sicklucker's arguments, so I usually somewhat ignore him.

Usually, sicklucker is constantly posting and providing tons of different thoughts. Last game, he said that he likes to make fast reads and he was making reads all over the place. One example of that is when I posted a long post on batsnacks, sicklucker responded “I haven't read your post yet, but you are so town for writing that up”. This game, he has definitely done weird things and made a lot of posts, but they are all related to setup, presents, and roles. Very few reads. I don't think it makes sicklucker scum, but I don't see him as a sure town like some other people do.
______________________________________________________________________________________________

Then there's the arguments between Vivax and Xatalos, and GlowingBear and Holyflare. I haven't put enough time into the recent development of those cases, so I don't feel that I have a right to offer an opinion of those cases at the moment. I hope to look heavily into those tomorrow. In case I die, good luck and happy scumhunting!


...
That really does not look like a green check.

I mean, that really, really looks like a poor assumption we all made as a thread. Why would he say anything about keeping FF on a short leash if he thought he was town?
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
December 21 2014 14:31 GMT
#4707
On December 15 2014 06:31 Fecalfeast wrote:
I've got to get ready for work so feel free to berate my shitty reads while I'm not here, I may not make it back by EoN so here's my list for now.

Vivax, HF, Xat, HTS

my scum reads going into the next day because they were the main proponents of the wagon on me. Vivax and HF mentioned NKs to justify a scumread on me right away, I didn't look deeper to see who else used NK logic but these two said shit right out of the gate. Vivax unvoted me before kelsier put his vote on me, then voted me again after. xat was the last one to take his vote off me.
HTS honestly is a gut read and pretty weak.

I'm not going through the first day/night again so if there's anything in there that makes this list stupid let me know.

Slam SL truffles liancourt top towns for me


...And I also find this interesting. Not definitive by a long-shot, but isn't it weird how the reads are lining up from nearly a week ago? This right after Xata and OWS clinched the lynch on KSC? And no real reason to include HTS at all, but he does anyway. I see that they're being called "shitty reads", but it's almost prophetic lol.
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
December 21 2014 14:33 GMT
#4708
On December 21 2014 23:22 sicklucker wrote:
Leave the medic alone rsoutin. And can the other god damn carol singer claim so we have another confirmed? Like there is literally no reason not to wth.


I can do what I wish, SL, like ask people what they think. You and GB have been asking for claims all game. You should be delighted. I have noticed how you like to dodge me this game; don't think I haven't.
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
December 21 2014 14:48 GMT
#4712
On December 21 2014 23:42 GlowingBear wrote:
I've already said why JK shouldn't come out now.


Which is especially odd given when the same situation happened with ritoky, you were all for it. And that was earlier in the game. I'm actually not asking for JK to claim unless they want to, however that doesn't preclude me from questioning Xata who is so many people's top scumread.

Knowing if/who JK chose to act upon would go a long way toward solving the puzzle in this case. More than what happened with ritoky, anyway. So yes, I find it very curious that you've suddenly flipped your stance here.
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
December 21 2014 15:09 GMT
#4715
Does anyone have a reason that they're townreading FF other than trfel's post? Cause (and I know I was guilty of this) I think we probably jumped to conclusions. I said that probably explained trfel's read on FF because I didn't understand trfel's read on FF, but his actual post does not look like a strong townread at all, which you would expect from a green check (there'd then only be one scum role in the game that he could possibly be).
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
December 21 2014 15:20 GMT
#4722
On December 22 2014 00:17 Half the Sky wrote:
Rasputin, do you think Trfel may have worded it that way because he was Santa and didn't want to give himself away? Of course, he got NKed, but I digress. I mean, a lot of people had FF scumread through the end of D2 and if I recall correctly it was Holyflare who called him out for the read for that reason.


Of course that's possible. But that's not really the question, is it? The question is, why are we all assuming that FF is town? Not only is it possible that he's the godfather even if he was green-checked, but Trfel didn't come out firmly in his favor.

I was null-reading FF for the most part, too. And that looks more like a null-leaning town but he's not sure post than anything else.

I'm going to take a closer look at FF today, because I think he's gotten a free ride that he probably didn't deserve. I'm also not for lynching Xata or HTS today, unless GB comes out with that amazing case on Xata that he promised me and it's very compelling.
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
December 21 2014 15:23 GMT
#4724
On December 22 2014 00:18 Xatalos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 21 2014 23:06 rsoultin wrote:
On December 21 2014 22:58 Xatalos wrote:
Oh, it might even be LYLO right now? Then I think we definitely shouldn't lynch for "information" or something equally stupid. Let's just lynch the player with the highest chance of flipping scum. Probably Templar... But luckily there's still quite a bit of time left to make that decision.


We've got 12 players still. If it's LYLO that's a shit ton of scum in the wings. Though I will say it doesn't look like anyone's lynching for "information" but lian.

What do you think of FF? I'm a fan of the most simple explanation theory, which means either you were protected/RBd and are actually scum...or he is scum and was RBd last night, and is trying to throw the blame on someone else. If he's town, there is no reason for him to lie about who he took a shot at.


Yeah I guess it might not be LYLO yet (unless there's 4 scum left?).

Hm. I think that FF was most likely RB'd if he's town (the only clear "role" to RB after all) and it's possible that he was also RB'd as scum, although it's less likely. Either way I don't see how this makes me scum?


We had one NK last night and FF claimed to try to shoot you. My two versions were the simplest ones, nigella attempting to "block/save" you would negate his shot and yours if you were scum. A roleblocker on a scum FF would also explain the night actions without assuming multiple role interactions. There are of course other possibilities involving multiple role interactions, but statistically it's more unlikely the more roles you assume were involved in night actions.
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
December 21 2014 15:32 GMT
#4729
There's also the consideration that if scum is roleblocking FF, assuming they have a roleblocker which we don't know for sure (thank you for bringing up the vet HTS), then since FF was being pretty much universally townread he'd be a good KS I would think. So the last "simple" scenario is nigella RBing/saving him...

But here he is pre-claiming a present again, and claiming the KS again, and scum already knows that no one will counterclaim the KS or they would have when ritoky first claimed. So it's really quite possible for FF to be scum here, and that's why I'm asking if anyone's townreading him for anything but trfel's statement right before he died.

@Xata...I'm not saying it's not possible that you can't both be town. I am saying that I favor simple explanations over complex ones. Regardless, I think it would be foolish not to look into FF at all.
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
December 21 2014 15:37 GMT
#4734
And I think, personally, that since Nigella's power acts as a roleblocker...and there was no way to know that FF had a shot to take...that it's insignificant what Nigella thought of you. Can choose to try to save or to try to roleblock.
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
December 21 2014 15:42 GMT
#4738
On December 22 2014 00:40 sicklucker wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 22 2014 00:32 rsoultin wrote:
There's also the consideration that if scum is roleblocking FF, assuming they have a roleblocker which we don't know for sure (thank you for bringing up the vet HTS), then since FF was being pretty much universally townread he'd be a good KS I would think. So the last "simple" scenario is nigella RBing/saving him...

But here he is pre-claiming a present again, and claiming the KS again, and scum already knows that no one will counterclaim the KS or they would have when ritoky first claimed. So it's really quite possible for FF to be scum here, and that's why I'm asking if anyone's townreading him for anything but trfel's statement right before he died.

@Xata...I'm not saying it's not possible that you can't both be town. I am saying that I favor simple explanations over complex ones. Regardless, I think it would be foolish not to look into FF at all.


Well for one he wasint one of five idiots who voted out an obvious town yesterday????. Like we dont worry about ff unless we think the last mafia is that specific role


Check again, SL. He enabled the shenanigans. They weren't happening without him and Templar. He is by no means above scrutiny.
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
December 21 2014 15:49 GMT
#4741
In fact, he brought up Tube pretty much out of the blue. I was an idiot town to go for that, and will admit it, but his play the last couple of days has been sketchy. The last-minute switch to HF, too, which tied the vote...meaning that his vote change was pointless, but that people just looking at the final vote count would not associate him with a flipped town.
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
December 21 2014 15:53 GMT
#4744
On December 22 2014 00:26 GlowingBear wrote:
Although that is just a soft confirm on FF and he could be mafia, he shouldn't be the lynch today. Too null for us to risk lynching him. We should have lynched him before if that's the problem.
There is the votecount on day2 where mafia did seen to want a lynch on FF.

Rasputin, you asked for our reads but I see no follow up on them. What do you make of it?

Also, have in mind that a meta case is never an awesome case. Because it's meta. I'll make it anyway, later, cause I'm going to the beach with a date


I was playing a hunch, GB. I don't think this is a good time to comment on what I got from it, though. Your Xata and Oats reads I mostly already knew, and were consistent, so I can believe that at least if you're town you believe what you're saying. No one's commented on Slam (and he hasn't commented on others much) for so long that I was mostly just doing a spot check.
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
December 21 2014 15:55 GMT
#4746
On December 22 2014 00:51 sicklucker wrote:
Fair enough but hes always been like this. He also tried really hard to switch to hf after and thats who his vote ended on.
It was more like he jokingly did it and mafia saw an opening.

Regardless you dont kill him untill theres one mafia because he can be confirmed town if we kill the right mafia role.


I'm not reading him as a seer green check anymore, which makes everything you just said invalid, and even if it wasn't...I think it's completely foolish not to even look into a player, which is all I've suggested doing. Do you see anyone pushing him for lynch yet? I may, today, if I find stuff in his filter to convince me that's a good play...

But I'm not saying he's scum. I'm saying if the only reason we think he's town is because of Trfel, which on closer inspection is definitely not a certain green check in the slightest, that is a bad reason not to question him or investigate him at all.
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
December 21 2014 16:20 GMT
#4748
He did Day 1...but yeah, Day 2 I think it was just FF. The last check is whether or not that was because he was asked to read FF (which he may have been, too long ago for me to remember now -_-) or he did it out of the blue. If out of the blue he probably did seer him.
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
December 21 2014 17:21 GMT
#4751
Okay. Going through. Trfel had a townread on FF before Day 2, and these posts were made Night 1. Couple that with people calling for a vig kill on Kush and FF Night 1 (he also mentioned different people he wanted to investigate...and you know, Trfel isn't me or anything, but I wouldn't waste a seer check on him when I was reading him as town and he might be shot anyway:

+ Show Spoiler +
On December 11 2014 10:17 Trfel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 11 2014 08:43 Trfel wrote:
On December 11 2014 08:40 Koshi wrote:
On December 11 2014 08:33 Trfel wrote:
Ok, this isn't working out.

What are some good strategies to effectively playing in a Mafia game that is this long, and has this many players? A lot of filter reading and note-taking, or what?

Focus on a couple people that you know. Or some reads you trust. And go from there.

Vivax and Holyflare seem to be town for now (or at least, my biggest townreads at the moment). However, I'm not sold on the Xatalos scumread yet. I will definitely take another look at that when I can.

I will add batsnacks and Fecalfeast to my list of tentative townreads.

Need to head out now, but the main people I plan on investigating are Koshi, Damdred, Xatalos, LightningStrike, Tubesock, and KelsierSC.


On December 11 2014 11:09 Trfel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 11 2014 10:32 Holyflare wrote:
On December 11 2014 10:17 Trfel wrote:
On December 11 2014 08:43 Trfel wrote:
On December 11 2014 08:40 Koshi wrote:
On December 11 2014 08:33 Trfel wrote:
Ok, this isn't working out.

What are some good strategies to effectively playing in a Mafia game that is this long, and has this many players? A lot of filter reading and note-taking, or what?

Focus on a couple people that you know. Or some reads you trust. And go from there.

Vivax and Holyflare seem to be town for now (or at least, my biggest townreads at the moment). However, I'm not sold on the Xatalos scumread yet. I will definitely take another look at that when I can.

I will add batsnacks and Fecalfeast to my list of tentative townreads.

Need to head out now, but the main people I plan on investigating are Koshi, Damdred, Xatalos, LightningStrike, Tubesock, and KelsierSC.


Can you explain your poopfeast420 read because a lot of people have the opposite read
Sure.

Reading his filter, he seemed really scummy at first, especially this post:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2014 09:33 Fecalfeast wrote:
On December 09 2014 09:30 KelsierSC wrote:
So i think fecal is scum, we played a game together as town and early game he was very try hard, essentially Kush made a set up/mechanics comment and fecal went back to the setup, worked through all the permutations and then asked Kush to explain. Super town super eager.

this game i make a set up comment, then retract it and ff doesn't bat n eyelid. All he does is talk to slam about sumo. Which is pretty pointless. Like "herez an excuse nit to scumhunt" it doesn't feel towny at all

I don't expect you to have read my other town games but I've gotten exponentially worse as town.

GB do you have a comment on the current votes or discussion?

Since then, he seems to have provided some fine analysis. I don't really agree with his conclusions, but he seems to be trying to find the mafia. Mostly looking at his list post here, as well as his analysis of The_Templar's post. I suppose that the post on The_Templar is extremely picky with no real conclusion, but I can see where he is coming from. He hasn't been doing an amazing job of scumreading, but for now it seems to be good enough that he seems to lean slightly towards town.

If you don't mind, can you point me to the reasons why other people think he is scum?


His first post after the lynch is about FF...could be in response to both ritoky and HF talking about lynching him a few posts earlier, but there's enough of a time difference there that it could also be out of the blue, which makes it more likely a green check response than if he was more actively in the conversation:

+ Show Spoiler +

On December 12 2014 08:40 Holyflare wrote:
I'm incredibly disappointed with the vigi if we do because he shot absolutely nobody that was a good shot. Not one of ff, ritoky etc died even though like 4 vets called them mafia -.-

Not sure what i think of the present opening tbh. It would have been great to give them to all the scummy people and forced them to open them/use them to our will :/

2 biggest proponents of a ff lynch also died which is cool, especially as lm was in the shadows while doing it so didn't look like a high priority kill

On December 12 2014 09:02 ritoky wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 12 2014 08:44 Vivax wrote:
Ritoky what about your present.

Also I'd like you to answer to kita's points post-his-death. I'll try to carry on what the dead guys couldn't.


Show nested quote +
On December 12 2014 07:59 kitaman27 wrote:
ritoky
  • I feel like ritoky is picking on things that could be constructed as being scummy, but don't necessarily make a player mafia.
  • His first attack on LS is a relatively long post about him having two town reads that happen to be voting for each other. That kind of stuff happens, I don't see why it makes him scummy. He calls out the sicklucker as being a lie, but I think that comes down to semantics more than something he is maliciously doing. Attacking LS for the meta reads is okay, but doesn't seem as convincing to me as is did to him. He then drops his scum read on LS after he gives a town read on ritoky. I don't see why that should change his mind, it seems more like an excuse to move over to fecal.
  • His initial case on fecal seems to come down to fecal agreeing with ritoky on a subject matter and then giving a Null read on ritoky. This doesn't matter all that much in my view. He exaggerates the defense in passing made by fecal as giving a free pass for the day.
  • With bunnies really dominating discussion on day one, he mostly ignores her. I know he claims to struggle reading her, but there were enough things he could still comment about.
  • I know that listing both Fecal and ritoky as scum reads is a bit strange considering their interactions with each other. I haven't decided if one being scum makes the other town or if there is potentially some scum to scum interactions going on here.



1) I attacked LS because he made pure meta reads and they were crap. This post lacks the context of that being in the very first hours of the game. On day 1 I am a pretty hard tunneler on people who do things I think are strange or make excessively bad reads. I felt his reads were dumpster level at the time so I went on them. He came back and started answering people's questions in a town way. Someone asked me how it was town and I told them the same thing I will tell you, he responded directly and only giving what he was asked. That is very townie to me, especially for a new player. Normally mafia try to change the topic or they add too many qualifiers or they give way more than was asked. He didn't, so I started reading him town.

2) First I need to clean this up, since the start of the game up until the night phase I had only called two people mafia: LS and ff. Yet the moment I get a town read, come out of the tunnel on LS and switch to ff; people call me bloodthirsty. I am just moving to my next scum read and pressuring. Kita says that my initial read doesn't matter to him, well I would say that he doesn't do a good job of finding scum on D1 then. I think that when someone believes a read enough to sheep it word for word the very lowest level of trust they should have in that person is leaning town. He had a null read on me after basically quoting my read 5 posts earlier, and then tried to dumb tell it away by saying he didn't read my post. Not town at all.

3) I admittedly have a shit read on bunnies, and I would agree with him that I was mostly outside of that conversation. I did however say: "There's a nearly 0 amount of people defending bunnies, so she is probably town" about 12 hrs into the day. And I did clarify that the stuff that....I don't remember who, can go look...was pushing about her vote on me and it having no real reason was a crap part of the case since it was primarily predicated on our friendship/relationship in mafia.

4) I still want to lynch ff.

What about my present? Do you want me to claim which one I opened? If so, why?

On December 12 2014 09:11 Trfel wrote:
I still don't see very much reason to lynch Fecalfeast. Yes, his play hasn't been amazing yet, and I disagree with many of his reads, but I can still see where he is coming from. I would rather give him some more time before looking back at that lynch.


His other comments on the FF read right after flip are directly in response to HF questioning the first one:

+ Show Spoiler +

On December 12 2014 09:18 Trfel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 12 2014 09:13 Holyflare wrote:
On December 12 2014 09:11 Trfel wrote:
I still don't see very much reason to lynch Fecalfeast. Yes, his play hasn't been amazing yet, and I disagree with many of his reads, but I can still see where he is coming from. I would rather give him some more time before looking back at that lynch.


Did you read what lonemeow/kita/me wrote about him?

Yes, I have. I have also filter read his posts multiple times.

If you would like, I can elaborate, but unfortunately I will be really busy for a bit. In summary, his play is mostly fluff, but that doesn't incriminate someone (see Alakaslam, batsnacks, for example). And in the remaining posts, while I disagree, I see little reason to believe that those are his honest opinions after searching for scum.
On December 13 2014 13:28 Trfel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 12 2014 09:28 Holyflare wrote:
On December 12 2014 09:18 Trfel wrote:
On December 12 2014 09:13 Holyflare wrote:
On December 12 2014 09:11 Trfel wrote:
I still don't see very much reason to lynch Fecalfeast. Yes, his play hasn't been amazing yet, and I disagree with many of his reads, but I can still see where he is coming from. I would rather give him some more time before looking back at that lynch.


Did you read what lonemeow/kita/me wrote about him?

Yes, I have. I have also filter read his posts multiple times.

If you would like, I can elaborate, but unfortunately I will be really busy for a bit. In summary, his play is mostly fluff, but that doesn't incriminate someone (see Alakaslam, batsnacks, for example). And in the remaining posts, while I disagree, I see little reason to believe that those are his honest opinions after searching for scum.


What do you mean by this? That you don't believe it's ff's honest opinion?

Also if his play is mostly fluff and a lot of his play has mafiay agendas behind it as referenced mainly by lm, the bunnies point is so excellent, then just because other people play a similar way (i don't know why you actually mentioned slam and batsnacks when you have no idea what alignment they are??) doesn't mean he can't be scummy.

Interested why you actually come to this conclusion at all.

Sorry, that sentence should have read "And in the remaining posts, while I disagree, I see little reason to believe that those aren't his honest opinions after searching for scum.

I'll take another look at Fecalfeast, and then move on to some other players.


Again, he brings up FF...first in a post defending himself, and later after presumably filter-diving as he claimed:
+ Show Spoiler +

On December 13 2014 16:17 Trfel wrote:
Ok, a few comments to the people who feel I am a good lynch (which to be honest, is probably everyone, or at least ought to be).

First, other than me being a lurker, the only argument is a meta read. Which is based off of a whole one game. A student mafia game, with 13-14 people, where I was shot on Night 1. Meaning, I played for 72 hours in an "easy" game and only had to read ~30 pages the entire time. Then, I jumped into a game with ~26 players, including several veterans and skilled players. And it's already over 100 posts. I'm simply not able to play at the same level I was last game, and yes, that's not ideal.

In addition, one thing that my last game taught me is that meta reads have limited use. So at the moment, I don't intend to make any meta reads. That doesn't mean I'm not trying, it just means that I decided that spending hours pouring over previous games for minimal value isn't a good use of time.

Again, I realize 100% that I appear to be a very good lynch. But that is just for me being a policy lynch, the meta argument really lacks backing. My request is that people spend the next while looking into other people to lynch, as with this much time in the day I don't believe you should start looking at a policy lynch already.

Anyway, I'll be looking at Fecalfeast's filter and the cases made against him again now. If anyone has any (specific) questions they would like me to answer, I should be up for a short while. But I will ignore general questions like "who is scum", as I'll answer that when I can.
On December 13 2014 16:38 Trfel wrote:
First, I don't really know what night kill analysis is or how to perform it. If someone could please explain this or link me a good guide to read, that would be great, as my current understanding is that night kills are WIFOM and should be ignored. Ironically, this came from an Oatsmaster post in the Student Mafia IV game, so this isn't a new view that he has presented.

Excluding that, I still am not that happy with a Fecalfeast lynch. Here is why.

Fecalfeast hasn't presented any real reasons to read him as town. I'm not happy with him, and he's obviously playing badly (he's admitted several times that he hasn't been keeping up with the thread). That doesn't make him mafia, though, it just makes him lazy.

I've read the cases on him, or at least all of the cases I could easily find. They generally seem weak, with the main argument being that he is doing a poor job of finding scum. While I disagree with many of the reads he presents in his list post, I get the impression that he is thinking, and I can see how someone would reach those conclusions.

Basically, there doesn't seem to be much evidence against Fecalfeast, besides a simple policy lynch. And at this point, I really hope we can come up with something better than a policy lynch. One example is Tubesock, who feels better than a policy lynch to me due to some of the weird posting and the potential "scumslip". I still hope that there is a better target, though.


Looking at Oatsmaster and Vivax's case on him next.


He then presents his case on KSC, without initially arguing about FF even though FF is one of the main wagons at this point...yet comes back in to defend him a few posts later:
+ Show Spoiler +
On December 14 2014 06:06 Trfel wrote:
Ok, I'm pretty suspicious of KelsierSC.

The first real thing he does in the game are these posts, which I'm sure everyone is familiar with:

Show nested quote +
On December 09 2014 08:46 KelsierSC wrote:
So i have noticed something with this set up. If you are scrooge just claim.

Show nested quote +
On December 09 2014 08:55 KelsierSC wrote:
Ah ignore my scrooge comment i misread one of the roles

Show nested quote +
On December 09 2014 09:30 KelsierSC wrote:
So i think fecal is scum, we played a game together as town and early game he was very try hard, essentially Kush made a set up/mechanics comment and fecal went back to the setup, worked through all the permutations and then asked Kush to explain. Super town super eager.

this game i make a set up comment, then retract it and ff doesn't bat n eyelid. All he does is talk to slam about sumo. Which is pretty pointless. Like "herez an excuse nit to scumhunt" it doesn't feel towny at all

This feels really weak to me, especially now that KelsierSC linked the game that he refers to. I don't understand how he can possibly find Fecalfeast the slightest bit scummy for this. It feels like he is really forcing this read from nothing, while potentially identifying a stupid Scrooge (which happened...) and appearing towny.
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2014 09:12 KelsierSC wrote:
On December 09 2014 09:10 Holyflare wrote:
On December 09 2014 09:05 KelsierSC wrote:
I'm liking holyflare now, i didn't like his post about how he wasn't going to post, seemed like a good excuse to lurk. But he has backed it up with actual pressure.his pressure on nb is actually strong and the explanation is good. It also feels like town hf to me.





Do you know how I play as mafia? This seems pretty baseless if you do and even more so if you don't.


i saw you play town and this feels like town, I'm happy with the read for d1

Same with his early townread on Holyflare. Even Holyflare says that it is weak, and I agree. We've already established that Holyflare is really good at playing Mafia, and that makes it really hard to identify him. So no, a meta case that early into the game isn't very good. This post again lacks substance, and feels like he is making a read for the purpose of making a read.
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2014 09:51 KelsierSC wrote:
Hf, bats have you played with ff much? What is his d1 like normally?

This post seems to take even more force out of his meta case on Fecalfeast. Is it really a good argument, if he isn't sure himself what Fecalfeast's day 1 play is like?

KelsierSC and I seem to be the only two people who read batsnacks as town for the post he made on Half the Sky. (Since then, batsnacks' play has made me much more suspicious, but that isn't the point of this post). The weird thing is, KelsierSC read batsnacks as town because he agreed with batsnacks' post. The validity of batsnacks' post has since been shown to be very questionable, but KelsierSC hasn't changed his stance.

KelsierSC then spends several posts focusing on Alakaslam. Here is his explanation.
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2014 10:37 KelsierSC wrote:
On December 09 2014 10:33 Holyflare wrote:
You should also stop wasting your time trying to read slam and just try and make him interact with you about this game instead. He can actually play mafia and says insightful things.


I'm not reading slam. But the free town passes he is getting are good info.

especially people who call him semi town.. Wtf is that
Later, he goes back on this and says that this didn't end up working out. More words, less analysis.

His scum list seems to be changing without that much explanation. He says that he would happily vote 27nb, but doesn't include her in his lynch list. And his inclusion of Vivax in the lynch list for bad reads seems strange. Bad reads don't necessarily make someone scum, it is the intent behind them. And these reads are seeming forced.

Later, he comes back with a new post, and Vivax isn't mentioned in his scum reads at all.

The point about his changing stance on ritoky is also interesting. He puts ritoky into his town circle, then adds him to his lynch list, saying he has done absolutely nothing. His explanation of this is that he forgot he had him in his town circle. Shouldn't his reads be the same every time, even if he forgot all of his previous reads? If he was trying hard to make real reads, they would. If his read changed due to new information, that would be good, but the only new information he provided is that a few people scumread him. "I forgot" and "others are scumreading him" are not good reasons to change a read like that, he should at least investigate the case himself.

In conclusion, I would be happy to lynch KelsierSC. Moreso than Fecalfeast, anyway. Obviously it's not certain, but it seems better than anything else.

Now I will take a look at GlowingBear's complete case on Holyflare.

On December 14 2014 06:21 Trfel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 14 2014 06:15 Vivax wrote:
On December 14 2014 06:09 Fecalfeast wrote:
Yeah keep in mind, if I get lynched, who used night kill analysis to scumread me. Keep in mind who is defending HF by swinging their votes from tubesack to me. I'm a proponent of the church of GlowingBear now. I do not fear dying for my god.


Let's just assume for a moment you're town. Why are you playing this game? You complain whenever there's something new to read, you don't try to find scum, and when you do it's by you being a passive prick that wants to die, saying that scum are the people pushing you and your argument for that is your alignment post-flip.

The thought that you might be town scares me.

Let's assume for a moment that Fecalfeast is mafia. He's playing terribly in that respect too. He's got a huge wagon on him, and he just says he doesn't want to play and that he shouldn't have signed up for the game. That's true no matter his alignment.

He obviously is too busy to play this game. That doesn't make him town or mafia, that makes him inactive.

There are better lynches.



Then there's this last post addressing his reads before EoN...FF does appear to be his only townread on it, yet it is hardly a strong statement. So I don't know:
+ Show Spoiler +

On December 15 2014 07:58 Trfel wrote:
Ok, a few thoughts at the end of the night. I'm not going to go super deep into this, since the nightkills do provide information that can be useful, but here's my thinking. I'm also not going to call someone super scummy or clean right before a bunch of new information comes out, for obvious reasons.

Vivax

Vivax seems... strange. I'm not really sure what to make of it.

The first thing to note is, he has been making a lot of reads. From looking at his filter, here's what I found.
+ Show Spoiler [Vivax's Reads] +
suspicious of 27ninjabunnies
suspicious of ritoky
suspicious of Tubesock
suspicious of KelsierSC
suspicious of Xatalos
suspicious of rsoultin
no longer suspicious of Xatalos
suspicious of batsnacks
less suspicious of batsnacks
suspicious of Fecalfeast
suspicious of Trfel
suspicious of GlowingBear
suspicious of The_Templar
suspicious of Oatsmaster
suspicious of Holyflare
suspicious of Xatalos

I think that this is just a playstyle, and not a sign of being mafia. It's not good or bad. Also, his reads are all well-explained and what he is doing makes sense to me. Really, I don't see any signs of him being scum here. Except, his play leading up to the day 2 lynch deadline has felt a bit off to me.

On page 120, GlowingBear posts Part 2 of his case on Holyflare. The full case summary is posted on page 121. On page 122, I post a case on KelsierSC. Vivax posts a few pages after this, but doesn't respond to either case. Then he mentions the Holyflare case on page 125 and says he is tempted to go for it, and then votes for Holyflare on page 126. No mention of the KelsierSC case at all, despite being suspicious of him earlier in the game. On page 129, I post a response to GlowingBear's case, hoping for a response from one of the GlowingBear voters. Vivax posts like this:
Show nested quote +
On December 14 2014 07:34 Vivax wrote:
Lynch HF

Show nested quote +
On December 14 2014 07:41 Vivax wrote:
On December 14 2014 07:35 Trfel wrote:
On December 14 2014 07:34 Vivax wrote:
Lynch HF

I would love to. Please tell me why, other than linking GlowingBear's post.
Cause I read his post and it convinced me, nothing else really.

No reference at all to the KelsierSC case, no original reasons for lynching Holyflare, no response to the criticism I presented of the Holyflare case, no sign of the critical thinking and analytical Vivax that I saw throughout the rest of the game. The only town explanation I can come up with for Vivax is that he was reading sporadically and missed my repeated questions on GlowingBear's case, and really was that convinced by GlowingBear's case that he didn't mention the KelsierSC case in an attempt to gather support for lynching Holyflare instead.

I'm very hesitant to call Vivax mafia for this. It's the only suspicious thing I see in his filter, while the rest of his play seems to be searching for mafia and being constructive. In the end I leave him at null/town, but he is definitely on my watch list.
______________________________________________________________________________________________
batsnacks

It's sort of the same thing for batsnacks.

The fact that I tried to get batsnacks lynched last game for not providing scumreads and him ending up being town is still heavily in the back of my mind. So I'm not going to try and get a read on him, but here's some thoughts.

Batsnacks makes an early read on Half the Sky, and his reasons for this read have been heavily criticized. I still think this read makes him seem a bit towny, but I could be wrong. His push on LightningStrike is good, too.

Batsnacks clearly noticed that I posted a case on KelsierSC, and he put KelsierSC into his "would lynch" list. His vote remained on Holyflare, and he seemed desperate to get people to switch from KelsierSC to Holyflare. He never provided comments on the KelsierSC case, either.
Show nested quote +
On December 14 2014 07:42 batsnacks wrote:
On December 14 2014 07:41 Trfel wrote:
Switching to Holyflare because of a gut call. It's hard to explain. If someone really wants me to, I can try though.


^ ppl voting KSC

______________________________________________________________________________________________
GlowingBear

I don't have a big read on GlowingBear yet. I am just including him here because he pushed on Holyflare over KelsierSC, and it would seem incomplete if I mentioned Vivax and batsnacks without mentioning GlowingBear.

The main reason I find GlowingBear's push on Holyflare instead of KelsierSC less suspicious than the two previous cases is that GlowingBear acknowledged the KelsierSC case and said that he was fine with a KelsierSC lynch.
______________________________________________________________________________________________
Fecalfeast

I've been defending Fecalfeast a bit throughout day 2. I suppose that was the first controversial read I made all game, since I only started seriously being suspicious of KelsierSC midway through day 2. Anyway, I maintain that Fecalfeast's play seems to be poor town instead of inactive mafia. He should be on a relatively short leash, though.
______________________________________________________________________________________________
sicklucker

I said I wouldn't make meta reads. Well, here's a meta read. The main reason is because I tend to have trouble understanding sicklucker's arguments, so I usually somewhat ignore him.

Usually, sicklucker is constantly posting and providing tons of different thoughts. Last game, he said that he likes to make fast reads and he was making reads all over the place. One example of that is when I posted a long post on batsnacks, sicklucker responded “I haven't read your post yet, but you are so town for writing that up”. This game, he has definitely done weird things and made a lot of posts, but they are all related to setup, presents, and roles. Very few reads. I don't think it makes sicklucker scum, but I don't see him as a sure town like some other people do.
______________________________________________________________________________________________

Then there's the arguments between Vivax and Xatalos, and GlowingBear and Holyflare. I haven't put enough time into the recent development of those cases, so I don't feel that I have a right to offer an opinion of those cases at the moment. I hope to look heavily into those tomorrow. In case I die, good luck and happy scumhunting!


It's just not sitting definite enough one way or another for me. I can't tell if Trfel was simply against a policy lynch in general, or if he actually did seer FF. It's more difficult to discern because of the non-committal end read, and the fact that he was townreading FF before the end of Night 1...before he could have seered him. Yet most of his Day 2 filter was about FF in one way or another, at least in terms of town reads or people he didn't want to lynch. This could mean a seer check, or just that of the people we were discussing for lynch, FF was the one he was most uncomfortable with. -_-

For me it's completely inconclusive.
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
December 21 2014 17:29 GMT
#4753
Lol, you guys are acting like I'm trying to lynch FF. All I'm saying is there's reason to doubt that he was trfel's green check...if for no other reason than Trfel was already townreading him before EoN1. Regardless, I'm going to go back through FF's filter later with the mindset that he may not have been seered by Trfel, because I've mostly been ignoring him as a possible scum candidate because of that previous assumption.

"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
December 21 2014 20:02 GMT
#4757
On December 22 2014 04:14 The_Templar wrote:
Stop focusing on FF and focus on why I'm town and not mafia. Some of you seem to disagree on very plain facts.


And these very plain facts are what, exactly?
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
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