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Alaric
France45622 Posts
On October 20 2014 09:10 mordek wrote: This an Alz mislynch bait is my first impression. That's exactly what I meant when I said I wouldn't be able to rely on my reads as much once I revealed them >< Also the reveal of Alz unable to protect himself that fucked with me and scum's possibilities. | ||
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Alaric
France45622 Posts
since there are now 2 scum and we don't have room for error, tunneling so hard on Wave won't make you win, even if he's scum (well, unless you are scum and he isn't, in which case you only need one mislynch). There'd be someone else to find. If you're still bent on Wave being scum, then who do you think is the other one? Alternatively, assuming Wave died tonight (and flipped VT) instead of Cixah, who would be your new scum reads? | ||
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Alaric
France45622 Posts
When I chose Asmodeus the last day I made this post (move directly to the paragraph called owb's filter), which shows how owb actually moved the lynch from Ghandi to Soniv when Wave "pressured" mordek. There's a part (2nd spoiler I think) where I lost what I think would make sense from scum!X. Ghandi was probably the least involved in it (save for you, and because if he was scum and the plan backfired he was in danger), and Asmodeus one of the most useful (since he held the key to lynching Soniv), with Wave behind. So if I remove Ghandi then the second scum is either you or Wave. I'd be willing to lynch any of the two... provided we can be certain it's going to result in a scum lynch. Because otherwise we're all dead (save the scum, uh). I'd rather lynch mordek today because I'm convinced he's scum at this point and it gives us 72 more hours to determine whether Res is a laser-guided hero or an autonomous scum. | ||
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Alaric
France45622 Posts
I don't think it's actually interesting for scum to let a mislynch happen, because they trade 1 for 1... well, trading 1 for 1 doesn't really matter at this point. However, either they win tonight, or they can win the next day (by lynching Alzadar tonight since he's the last confirmed townie, and then you have one scum and 3 town.). You can see it this way: - if vote's on non-scum, they can just wait, whether they've voted on him, against him or not at all (if they haven't voted on him it's even better for them because they can switch their vote in case one of the townies has a change of mind). They can also pretend to defend him, but not too hard I guess otherwise the new target may be one of them. It creates fake activity though. - if vote's on scum, either they have the ability to tip the scales, and they don't care too much as long as other votes go on someone else so they can switch at the last second, or something like that, or they don't have that ability and they'll have to push. That... would actually make more sense for Wave to be scum then, I guess, since the vote lead is on Requizen and Wave also holds the tiebreaker to condemn him, so if 3 people vote on someone else (not himself) he can switch to save Req. On the other hand that scenario only makes sense if both Wave and Requizen are scum and they've been playing the shit out of us, and I don't believe that (plus it'd make no sense to pile so hard on Requizen either, because he's basically dead if we want it too at that point; sure it could be a bus but why the heck do a bus when you could force mislynch?). So... yeah. The current situation would only benefit scum!Wave in unrealistic scenarios (or they'd take huge balls, or scum would be so confident they can win they'd play with us). Between that, and Wave sharing my suspicions (same reasoning here: why would he go in my direction if that means a bus? The cred he'd get from that wouldn't offset not straight-up winning the game), I lean more on Req being scum between the two of them. ##Vote: mordek However, I'm putting my money when my mouth is and voting against the guy I'm 100% sure is scum, as opposed to the guy that "maybe" is scum, 70% chance or something. If noone shares my opinion and we have to take a bet with Req to stay in the game, I'll switch my vote, but! Because at that point I won't have a choice. I like certainty more. | ||
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Alaric
France45622 Posts
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Alaric
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Alaric
France45622 Posts
My 100% is the same 100% I had on ComaDose. He turned out 3P but I hadn't considered them at the time, and not only are there no more 3P in the game, even as that his play was clearly focused on survival over town which should point to scum. | ||
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Alaric
France45622 Posts
mordek case. | ||
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Alaric
France45622 Posts
But I'm more convinced of you than of him (still hard to believe he'd have faked so well, on the other hand hard to believe Wave would have masterminded us all too), and we don't have room for error anymore. I'm admittedly a bit grumpy that when we're supposed to look at every tiny bit because it's-or-die, less than half of the people seem to read the posts, but I won't throw a fit over it, we've already seen that it hasn't resolved anything between Wave and Req (or, to take a more fitting town/town dynamic, between Soniv and Wave who needed a claim to set it straight). Which is why I said that if we have (maths) to take a bet on Req, then I'll take it with you all and hope (with you all save 2 ¬¬). | ||
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Alaric
France45622 Posts
Fun fact: Wave now actually has the "key" status he claimed about Soniv because of how unlikely our votes are to spread 3 ways, and how comparatively harder it is to break a tie (I mean really do it, not use a tiebreaker) when there are 6 people remaining compare to 12. Ugh... I guess another way to look at it is who we think are the two remaining scums. So far Wave seems set on Req and... we don't know. I think mordek and Requizen (less so Requizen because fucking dynamic with Wave). Requizen thinks Wave and Ghandi. Mordek doesn't know. Ghandi thinks Req (thinks Req has a point on Wave, but since he's town and Req accuses him that makes him less likely). Alzadar thinks Req for the same reasons (Ghandi townie, so Req accusing him is scummy). All of you who aren't sure you else you'd point out, please think about it then. Even if we strike true today we're only getting a respite and we'll still have one lynch to carry out Day 5. With how little activity we've had N3/D4 I'd rather you start thinking now than not have any idea come Day 5 and end up with a RNG lynch and a prayer or something. | ||
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Alaric
France45622 Posts
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Alaric
France45622 Posts
On October 22 2014 09:28 ketchup wrote: That was my own fault for editing. I gave Dandel the heads up in a message, then gambled on coinflip to see if i live or die. It was worth. A good timing to die because if town stepped up, they could have still had a chance to win. The claim was really bogus to me, and I kept my vote on you despite people changing over to comadose. I have to hand it to Alaric. Aside from his day 1 post where he was definitely was attempting to play the newb card, he never said anything that I saw that would have given him away. Then again, I also didn't read his well enough filter because other people stood out more. If you read my filter in reverse and search for you name, you'll quickly find a post where I address that (I think it's when Wave says noone ever suspected me and should have at least doubted). I'm a Mafia noob because I dare to utter words Day 1 in werewolves so I just end up lynched first. People aren't used to the game and they'll naturally vote on someone that sticks out, eg. the only guy who spoke, or the first one if he made others speak. So I have no experience at all of a bunch of stuff, including how good/bad our situation was after Night 2.  My first posts read townie because I posted the exact same thing as if I'd been townie (iirc it was mostly "reads" on Req and Ghandi's posting style that gave me a green flag for Soniv and Wave, and not actual game stuff). I did that for a bunch of the game, although after awhile I couldn't anymore. I guess that's also why I couldn't "scum hunt" because that was the one thing I couldn't do the same way I'd do as townie without lying. When I tried to push Mordek to make some activity at the end I was super scared people would catch up because apart from ComaDose it was the only time I took the initiative. I think when we stopped posting and people doubted Requizen's status because of that the game could have easily turned around, but there was just no motivation anymore at that point (that's mentally exhausting too x_x).Also yeah screw Tolkien, vetest of vets. You looked like someone who wouldn't let us bullshit you. So we killed you. :< Now I'm gonna look at the obs qt for the end of D2. | ||
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Alaric
France45622 Posts
On October 22 2014 09:44 AsmodeusXI wrote: lol welp I think the lesson most of us learned is that Mafia requires a time commitment most of us can't/won't commit to. I know I certainly did. At least you had that post "I won't be surprised if Alaric flips red and will be all IT MAKES SO MUCH SENSE" (there was caps at least, this I remember). Dandel, that from the obs qt: scum already found most the needed things to make the night amazingo, but they stopped just two steps before world domination so much potential = wasted ah well they still have time Is it when we suggested to roleblock Soniv, kill someone else, have Alzadar not lose cred for it and still be able to kill Soniv next night without repercussions, but didn't go through with it? About Alzadar it's in the qt but I basically expected Wave to say "scum's only play is kill the medic, Alzadar's alive, something's wrong" and play the "Maybe they're framing him so we kill him for them instead?" card. Didn't have to. Sad. That medic claim was MVP though. Ballsy too. | ||
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Alaric
France45622 Posts
On October 22 2014 09:48 ketchup wrote: I definitely should have been more trolly in the game atmosphere so we could have had more fun with things. The end of day 2 was really fun, and it did save ghandi which was amazing.(even if he didn't actually help with much afterwards QQ) I just refused that we kill Wave or Ghandi at night just because of the struggles they went through. Consolation prize! | ||
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Alaric
France45622 Posts
Oh I also checked out these RNG lynches by BlazingTorch, did it just before end of day 2. That was amazing. Forgot to tell you. owb: What was your train of thought for poisoning me? Coma:you were just the other lurkey person by N1 and I figured I had to get someone. :') | ||
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Alaric
France45622 Posts
And yeah ketchup modkill was probably the biggest thing. It's so damn hard to find people, plus since you have to kill the ones who take initiative when they start suspecting you you start having to push and expose yourself more as there's less people. I dunno if it was because we were all noob but I was pretty scared of having to stick my neck out to point a scum and suddenly have everyone go "we're all hesitant, this guy is sure of himself, he must be scum!". | ||
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Alaric
France45622 Posts
On October 22 2014 10:09 Lord Tolkien wrote: Maybe im salty i die everytime i try and lead town starting d1 Embrace it. I laughed my ass off the one time cupid thought tying 2 people to me would them "protect me". Na we just killed 6 people between D1 and N1 AHAHA! x') Dandel, I'm not sure what you mean. Say, we push Ghandi, roleblock mordek to Soniv dies, and kill someone at night? Would be good yeah, but that'd still mean Alzadar is outed because he's claimed medic and survived the night. Which would basically leave me to 1v6, and I'd never have won that. | ||
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Alaric
France45622 Posts
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Alaric
France45622 Posts
Or do you mean that I didn't actually do anything with all my reads, like push mislynches, get town leader cred, etc. save poke ComaDose? After Day 1 Tolkien was the obvious kill but the next big threat to us was ketchup I think yeah. Wave could have mobilised people if he had a hunch on us, but ketchup reads were more accurate and he didn't seem to fall for our "na look I'm town" tactics. I'm really not sure how the rest would have turned out without the modkill, not because of what he could have said, but just because that'd have given us so many priority targets to handle (ketchup, Soniv, blues in general... ). Wave what was your out-of-game WIFOM-stuff on mordek? And what do you guys call shenanies? When town jumps on a train unexpectedly like what happened Day 2, because that screws with scum's plans and they can't organise a response/get a mislynch secured fast enough usually? | ||
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Alaric
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