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MoonBear (6): jcarlsoniv, Lord Tolkien, AsmodeusXI, GhandiEAGLE, Alaric, ketchup, AsmodeusXI, WaveofShadow, jcarlsoniv, Cixah
So who voted for MoonBear and why?
On October 12 2014 05:42 jcarlsoniv wrote:y'know what? fuck it ##vote: MoonBearYou can, in fact, continue on the "he said, she said", that's how this game works. And y'know what you've said? Nothing. But you, more than any of the others who've done the same, come off as faux-contribution. Moreso than Alzadar. Asking about cops, trying to discern the setup, having 0 conclusions. THE BEAR'S BLOOD WILL DRAIN RED + Show Spoiler +
Soniv was first here. This was still pretty early and I think he had some solid reasoning, it's similar to why I suspected MB.
Later he unvotes because he thinks MoonBear is going to be modkilled but revotes when MoonBear appears. I don't mind Soniv sticking to his guns here, MB was definitely suspicious. Dunno what I think of Soniv being completely unswayed by Wave's blue assertion.
Tolkien was next, seems like a straightforward vote. Was still early in the day and the other main candidate at the time was himself, so not surprising he would vote the other way. Later he was a big MoonBear defender.
On October 13 2014 03:59 GhandiEAGLE wrote:
Sticking with Moonbear because I feel bad about no-votes, but I'm not 100% convinced.
##Vote: Moonbear
Ghandhi next, he just completely jumped on the bandwagon. Voted Wave early, which obviously wasn't going to happen, then hopped on the MB train and sat there happily till night.
Asmo felt it was between Ghandhi and MB, Ghandhi posted a wall that convinced him a bit so he flipflopped back to MoonBear. Doesn't seem too suspicious.
Alaric posts fucking massive walls, wtf. He voted and then said this:
On October 13 2014 07:13 Alaric wrote:On the other hand, just because it's Moonbear's first game doesn't mean he's not maybe better at this kind of things than you. An issue for me here is that I have no idea what "serious" Moonbear is like, since he's always that jolly cheerful fellow with us in the off-topic thread (heck, even when he warns me it's more like "PSA from your friendly neighbour"!), which muddies my expectations. But in the end I said I'd rather vote for someone dubious than an afk*, so I'm looking at him right now. Moonbear, what that means is that you're close to a default lynch than a 100% scum read for me, so if you wanna stay alive it's up to you buddy! Be convincing, preferable before I go to bed. 
I think most can agree that MB was not convincing that he wasn't scum. Which maybe he thought was alright since he was Vanilla.
You've all discussed Wave already.
Cixah's post is weird:
On October 13 2014 08:50 Cixah wrote:
##Vote Moonbear
I guess this is how this is going to down? I don't like the lynch based on what i've seen, I even think Ghandi is still the better pick even if he claimed vanilla town. I don't buy that claim either TBH, We'll have to wait and see after the night.
You think Ghandhi is a better pick, so you vote MoonBear when it was still within a vote of being Jeff? Obviously the IC claim makes it hard to suspect Cixah but you better believe if it doesn't get announced tomorrow that you are gonna swing.
From all that, Ghandhi is the most suspicious. Either completely bandwagony Townie or scum happy to sit on a mislynch without really debating the issue.
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On October 14 2014 05:09 ComaDose wrote:
soniv did ride the moonbear ban to the finish line. actually he voted for moonbear twice but no one else. who was his main read between them?
i feel wave and LT being townie after it looks like they put a lot of effort in near the finish time. and it turns out we were right to doubt our decision. even if LT is a little trollish often.
Nobody. He unvoted MB because it seemed like MB would be modkilled, but then when MB voted he hopped back on.
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On October 14 2014 06:33 Lord Tolkien wrote:
Now, if there was one person who could reveal wave (and myself's) alignment through a lynch, who would you press?
That's easy, and I've been meaning to say it.
Tolkien and Wave were both strong defenders of MoonBear at the end, with Wave randomly picking out Asmo after nobody mentioning him for awhile and Tolkien pushing for Jeff.
If we lynch Ghandhi and he flips Mafia, then we can be pretty damn sure Tolkien is Town: it makes no sense to try to start momentum away from a Townie and on to Scum when the vote was still in the air.
Wave is less certain because he went on Asmo which was essentially a no-lynch vote.
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On October 14 2014 06:47 ketchup wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2014 06:42 Alzadar wrote:On October 14 2014 06:33 Lord Tolkien wrote:
Now, if there was one person who could reveal wave (and myself's) alignment through a lynch, who would you press? That's easy, and I've been meaning to say it. Tolkien and Wave were both strong defenders of MoonBear at the end, with Wave randomly picking out Asmo after nobody mentioning him for awhile and Tolkien pushing for Jeff. If we lynch Ghandhi and he flips Mafia, then we can be pretty damn sure Tolkien is Town: it makes no sense to try to start momentum away from a Townie and on to Scum when the vote was still in the air. Wave is less certain because he went on Asmo which was essentially a no-lynch vote. Alzadar, a quick correction, Wave has actually been heavily on Ghandi for a long time. Since the start of the game actually. So tolkien and wave would be fairly cleared
Are you sure? Go back and read Wave's posts. His opening post he votes Ghandhi yes, but it was basically just trolling (in the true sense) at that point, there was no argument behind it. He doesn't mention Jeff at all again until page 6 of his filter.
Then close to the lynch deadline he wanted to save MoonBear, but he throws away his vote on Asmo instead of on the close candidate, Jeff, who he's apparently distrusted the whole time? Why?
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What changed Wave?
On October 14 2014 04:45 WaveofShadow wrote:
Soniv is absolute primary lynch tomorrow.
On October 14 2014 05:13 WaveofShadow wrote:
Yeah so I just realized a quarter of the posts in this thread belong to me. At the risk of not much discussion occurring in my absence, I'm done until after deadline. You guys can keep it up. I bereave.
In case I die, scumreads are
Soniv
Asmo
Look into Coma/Alz/Jeff
Null on owb but leaning town. Also on LT---LT SHOULD be town but lord has his posting been shit today.
mordek/ketchup/Req/Cixah/Alaric
Don't let anyone fall off the radar.
How did Soniv go from absolute primary lynch to being underneath a "look into" Jeff?
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Well not necessarily right? You're discounting Medic and Jailkeeper who might have prevented a Townie's kill (safe bet that Tolkien was scum kill). It's too dangerous still for blues to out themselves but you shouldn't assume we've got no Vig.
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On October 14 2014 09:39 Cixah wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2014 09:38 Dandel Ion wrote:
yo i forgot to do this publicly at game start: Mafia have 1 factional Killing Power per night.
party on Can I get a little bit of insight on what this means? It helps math.
Mafia can kill one per night. I guess in larger games they might get to kill two per night.
I think we can be damn sure that Tolkien was killed by mafia, since Serial Poisoner wouldn't have taken effect yet and our Vigilante is fucked in the head if he shot up LT.
I'm not as convinced as Wave we don't have a Vig. There's more than one way the Vigilante could have been stopped - Medic on the target, Jailkeep on the target, Jailkeep on the Vig, Roleblock on the Vig.
Gimme a sec I want to math the odds.
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nvm fuck it remembered I hate doing probability. 1 > p > 0 QED
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I'm prepared to vote for Jeff, but I want to hear one thing from Wave:
If you were so sure MoonBear was Town, and you've also been suspicious of Jeff the entire game, why did you essentially throw away your vote on Asmodeus instead of voting for Jeff, when there was a very real chance Jeff could be lynched instead of MoonBear?
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On October 14 2014 10:17 WaveofShadow wrote:
I think in my head I was a little 'surer' of Asmo since he did dick all around deadline.
Now I'm kind of mad at myself, though I can't say for certain I would have been able to get enough people to switch back to Jeff even if I had been confident enough.
I can. This was 10 minutes before the lynch:
On October 13 2014 08:50 Cixah wrote:
##Vote Moonbear
I guess this is how this is going to down? I don't like the lynch based on what i've seen, I even think Ghandi is still the better pick even if he claimed vanilla town. I don't buy that claim either TBH, We'll have to wait and see after the night.
What's happening with coma then?
Cixah, who's motives are now beyond reproach since he's the IC, said he would rather lynch Jeff than MoonBear, and between the two of you you could have swung it.
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I actually like the Coma call better than Ghandhi. He's #1 lurker with less than a page filter and most of it is just vague questions.
Let's see what the man has to say.
##Vote: ComaDose
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Can we have Dandel rule on whether Innocent Child can be roleblocked? It isn't listed as blue rule which makes me think the answer is no. Cixah points 2-4 are just idle speculation. I don't see why we'd suspect Tolkien was vig'd.
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I'm glad to see Coma stepping up, you've convinced me for now.
##Unvote
I would like to hear you talk about Requizen though: you haven't discussed him at all in any of your posts.
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Is it really "late in the game"? It's still the morning of day 2. The Town pressured Coma to take a more active role or hang and he responded, that isn't in itself suspicious.
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Do recall that today is the first day of the game that isn't Thanksgiving Weekend. It's not surprising for Coma's activity pattern to change.
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I'm intrigued by this ketchup-Wave alliance, it's so different from D1. The reasons for it are clear though.
I need to go back into Soniv's filter and get a sense for myself.
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Read through Soniv's filter looking for a defense, but I can't really come up with anything that says "town". A lot of early prodding (a lot of it directed at me) that led nowhere. His inertia was a big part of lynching Moon over Jeff.
Tolkien's last words are relevant:
On October 14 2014 08:14 Lord Tolkien wrote:
At work still so this EoN post will be much shorter than what i normally spew out.
1) fking jeff. Im extremely unhappy he's still afk lurking. This isnt making you seem more town you know, and now im really getting serious about tunneling you. If Req can put in effort so can you.
2) Soniv or Wave wagon fine if questionable for d2. Should still press other options.
3) Again, depending on what alignment you think jeff is, examine the votecount. if jeffs scum in your eyes, scum is more likely on the MB wagon. If town, they're likely anywhere, but probably were idling on non-votes. The MB counterpush at EoD was pretty palpable.
Soniv vs Wave wagon: between the two, Wave is more trustworthy for me. If he's scum then he's bold as hell and has us all dancing like marionettes. Soniv has been more reserved, but seems to be "flailing" at bit more now that he's in the spotlight. At this point I'm back to trusting Wave.
Beyond that, ketchup is my #1 Townie as long as that roleblock claim goes uncontested. I'd like to hear from Cixah regarding Soniv.
What do we learn from a Soniv lynch? If he's red then Jeff probably is too; the reverse is also true if we lynch Jeff. Asmo's got the right of it in his post, though I'm a bit suspicious of him still.
It's still early in the Day, so I'll throw my vote for a bit of Town solidarity.
##Vote: jcarlsoniv
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Oh lots of posts while I was writing that.
Essentially right now I'm feeling pretty sure of Wave, Alaric, Ketchup, myself and Cixah obviously.
Fishy scum: Soniv, Ghandhi
Fishy: Asmo, Req
Rest I don't have a real read on.
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Ok so here "the rest" means OWB, Mordek and ComaDose.
Coma I was mostly voting at to prod him into action. It worked, and if he stays posting at the rate he did on p58 then he's clean in my book.
Mordek is a fucking ghost. Not necessarily lurking but I haven't taken much notice of him. Looking back it seems like the two of us have been in lockstep with our votes: we were both on Cixah till he claimed IC, then he followed me to LT, and now we're both on Soniv (although I voted after, I didn't see his vote first). I *think* this is a good sign, means we're thinking in the same pattern, and overall I get a Town vibe from him.
OWB was AFK for the first while, but has picked up since. Calls on me a lot, which is fine, it's usually when I'm being too lazy to post (and I guess like right now). He seems to agree with me that ketchup and Wave are in the clear. I'm not as sure as Mordek (and both are less sure than the rest), but I'll say Town.
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Actually that's helped me a lot to sort my thoughts.
Four town enemies are what we're expecting, and that's what I read. Between Soniv, Ghandhi, Asmo and Req, which lynch gives us the most information? It's got to be one of the former two, Asmo and Req tell little if they turn red.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://www.brendazguiberson.com/images/books/moonbear-b.jpg)
