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On October 07 2014 02:23 batsnacks wrote:
@BH if I claim scum is RNG lynch still better than lynching me?

On October 07 2014 02:35 Blazinghand wrote:


Are you denying the underlying math of RNG? Look dude there's roughly speaking 13 players, right? If 3 are scum, then that gives us a solid 22% chance of lynching scum purely based on RNG. Now, this isn't a very good ratio, I understand. Often, town can beat it for D1 lynches. But unless you put together a better case, the fact of the matter is, I'm offering a straight-up 22% chance to lynch someone.

On top of that, once I've RNGed someone, I tunnel them until they are lynched. This is pretty much historically accurate. OO has accepted his fate, which makes me think he is scum (town is usually super outraged when they get RNGed). I've updated the odds of OO flipping scum to be much higher as a result.

That being said, I am willing to change vote if you guys can offer something better, but things like "someone was yelling in all caps" or whatever other baloney is going on doesn't even come close to matching up with RNG in terms of usefulness as a heuristic.

On October 07 2014 02:35 Blazinghand wrote:
...there's roughly speaking 13 players, right? If 3 are scum, then that gives us a solid 22% chance of lynching scum purely based on RNG.

On October 07 2014 02:35 Blazinghand wrote:
...the fact of the matter is, I'm offering a straight-up 22% chance to lynch someone.

On October 07 2014 08:10 Grackaroni wrote:

This game was the heavyweight championship game btw. tsk tsk

3-4 is the reasonable assumption for mafia with 14 people so the 22% isn't very strange to me.

On October 07 2014 08:19 Grackaroni wrote:
You're implying that at the start of the post BH was careful not to slip that he had knowledge of the setup. (by pointing out that the number of scum is unknown) and then *slipped* that he was 100% sure there were 3 mafia within like 10 seconds of typing which is really unrealistic.

What I see is BH working off the assumption that random lynch provides at least 22% chance of hitting mafia compared to day 1 analysis which varies (and BH thinks is worse for catching mafia)

On October 07 2014 08:20 Hopeless1der wrote:
the math fails are strong.

A) 3/13=23%
B) 14 players (3/14 = 21.4%, 4/14=28.5%)
C) 3 mafia makes perfect sense given the roles present in this game.


omw home soon, will reread after i get there and get something to eat, expect me in ~3 hours max. p.s. stop using setup speculation for scumreads.

On October 07 2014 08:31 ObiWanShinobi wrote:


BH always does this, ergo you can't draw conclusions about his alignment using plays that he makes regardless of alignment.

Please don't push scumslips because they are the worst heuristic in the history of the universe.

On October 07 2014 08:32 Blazinghand wrote:
Are we really talking whether or not I "slipped" that there are 3 mafia in a 14 player game? Again? Do we have to do this every time?

On October 07 2014 08:46 Blazinghand wrote:
You know what's amazing? I never get called out for "scumslips" as scum. I certainly do scummy things, and get called out for it, but I never seem to "slip" because "scumslip" isn't even a thing. And probably at least 1 in 4 games as town (that's 1:3 odds) I get called out for some inconsequential "slip". It happens all the time, and if it was ever correct it wouldn't be annoying, but it's literally _always wrong_. Like, in a 14-player setup would anyone really be surprised if there were 3 scum? Come on, guys. I assume everyone is on my level, but I can't just make the logical leaps I do when people are like "oh, BH is correct about something, so he is scum???"

On October 07 2014 08:53 batsnacks wrote:
Maybe some townies are worse than robots... point them out... that would be way more helpful.

On October 07 2014 09:38 liancourt wrote:


Is the poisoned wine in front of me or you?

On October 08 2014 01:28 Hopeless1der wrote:

OO is a lurker lynch and an RNG lynch. Where the hell is batsnacks..fuck it

On October 08 2014 02:22 Hopeless1der wrote:
You had one job batsnacks.
+ Show Spoiler +

On October 08 2014 02:24 StorrZerg wrote:


why, please explain

On October 08 2014 02:33 StorrZerg wrote:


yes i'd like a better reason than policy

On October 08 2014 02:39 Hopeless1der wrote:

That....has nothing to do with why lian is town to you.