EPTI need to talk to hopeless more soon
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
I need to talk to hopeless more soon | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On October 07 2014 02:23 batsnacks wrote: @BH if I claim scum is RNG lynch still better than lynching me? | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On October 07 2014 02:35 Blazinghand wrote: Are you denying the underlying math of RNG? Look dude there's roughly speaking 13 players, right? If 3 are scum, then that gives us a solid 22% chance of lynching scum purely based on RNG. Now, this isn't a very good ratio, I understand. Often, town can beat it for D1 lynches. But unless you put together a better case, the fact of the matter is, I'm offering a straight-up 22% chance to lynch someone. On top of that, once I've RNGed someone, I tunnel them until they are lynched. This is pretty much historically accurate. OO has accepted his fate, which makes me think he is scum (town is usually super outraged when they get RNGed). I've updated the odds of OO flipping scum to be much higher as a result. That being said, I am willing to change vote if you guys can offer something better, but things like "someone was yelling in all caps" or whatever other baloney is going on doesn't even come close to matching up with RNG in terms of usefulness as a heuristic. | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On October 07 2014 02:35 Blazinghand wrote: ...there's roughly speaking 13 players, right? If 3 are scum, then that gives us a solid 22% chance of lynching scum purely based on RNG. No townie in this game knows the ratio of town to mafia, so it is correct here that BH gives us an example ratio of 10/3 or 22% as an example. But then later in that post he says this: On October 07 2014 02:35 Blazinghand wrote: ...the fact of the matter is, I'm offering a straight-up 22% chance to lynch someone. BH how do you KNOW there are exactly 3 mafia? I bolded fact because that's a serious word to throw around when you're supposedly working with estimates. | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On October 07 2014 08:10 Grackaroni wrote: This game was the heavyweight championship game btw. tsk tsk 3-4 is the reasonable assumption for mafia with 14 people so the 22% isn't very strange to me. But he offers it as a "straight-up" "fact" | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On October 07 2014 08:19 Grackaroni wrote: You're implying that at the start of the post BH was careful not to slip that he had knowledge of the setup. (by pointing out that the number of scum is unknown) and then *slipped* that he was 100% sure there were 3 mafia within like 10 seconds of typing which is really unrealistic. What I see is BH working off the assumption that random lynch provides at least 22% chance of hitting mafia compared to day 1 analysis which varies (and BH thinks is worse for catching mafia) I think it's feasible that he slipped. besides The TL mafia database disagrees that random lynch is better. So by random lynching we 1) have worse odds of lynching mafia and 2) players who agree with the random lynch have zero accountability for their votes. | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On October 07 2014 08:20 Hopeless1der wrote: the math fails are strong. A) 3/13=23% B) 14 players (3/14 = 21.4%, 4/14=28.5%) C) 3 mafia makes perfect sense given the roles present in this game. omw home soon, will reread after i get there and get something to eat, expect me in ~3 hours max. p.s. stop using setup speculation for scumreads. This doesn't account for 3rd parties. | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On October 07 2014 08:31 ObiWanShinobi wrote: BH always does this, ergo you can't draw conclusions about his alignment using plays that he makes regardless of alignment. Please don't push scumslips because they are the worst heuristic in the history of the universe. Find something better then. | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On October 07 2014 08:32 Blazinghand wrote: Are we really talking whether or not I "slipped" that there are 3 mafia in a 14 player game? Again? Do we have to do this every time? BH remember that time you didn't know what 3:1 odds were? And you actually told someone this game they aren't educated enough to understand your posts? You might have slipped. | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On October 07 2014 08:46 Blazinghand wrote: You know what's amazing? I never get called out for "scumslips" as scum. I certainly do scummy things, and get called out for it, but I never seem to "slip" because "scumslip" isn't even a thing. And probably at least 1 in 4 games as town (that's 1:3 odds) I get called out for some inconsequential "slip". It happens all the time, and if it was ever correct it wouldn't be annoying, but it's literally _always wrong_. Like, in a 14-player setup would anyone really be surprised if there were 3 scum? Come on, guys. I assume everyone is on my level, but I can't just make the logical leaps I do when people are like "oh, BH is correct about something, so he is scum???" I don't actually think you're scum I just want you to stop this rng bs... Like fine... I get it... you found a way to rng lynch on TL without the possibility of gaming it. I do think that's cool. It's something I have thought about before and I never figured out a good solution. I am glad I read your post about it because now I know how. It is interesting. ... but I also think it doesn't help town unless town are robots. Maybe some townies are worse than robots... point them out... that would be way more helpful. | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On October 07 2014 08:53 batsnacks wrote: Maybe some townies are worse than robots... point them out... that would be way more helpful. Should be maybe some PEOPLE are worse than robots... | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On October 07 2014 09:38 liancourt wrote: Is the poisoned wine in front of me or you? He's tricking you. Both glasses are poisoned. | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On October 08 2014 01:28 Hopeless1der wrote: OO is a lurker lynch and an RNG lynch. Where the hell is batsnacks..fuck it I'm at work I think Liam is town | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On October 08 2014 02:22 Hopeless1der wrote: You had one job batsnacks. + Show Spoiler + and then HF gave you another one. Does it make you nervous that I've already figured out you're mafia? | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
New people on this site get free town reads from me If you want a better explanation I'll be around for serious later | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On October 08 2014 02:33 StorrZerg wrote: yes i'd like a better reason than policy It's a good policy I think our player base would be larger if new people didn't always have to read a small novels' worth criticizing everything they do | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On October 08 2014 02:39 Hopeless1der wrote: That....has nothing to do with why lian is town to you. I literally just said it does Try to lynch me for it scum You wont | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
Give Liam a chance he's doing fine | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
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