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11589 Posts
this is really simple
One of two things is going on:
dam + haru are both fakeclaiming because they have a demon result that one of them got checked and they have a necro check on robik who was the actual exorcist. this scenario seemingly plays out as remaining duo with a third dead. it also relies on a lot of assumptions, none of which we can confirm
OR
ritoky is the fakeclaimer, and had to do so because he got redchecked with his pants down. his claim SEEMS weaker because of the stuff rayn has pointed out, and indeed, believing it fake is the simpler solution.
I also had the read that I thought damdred was town mid-late D1, but honestly I overstated it on purpose because I wanted to lynch lazy rayn. ritoky hasn't been very productive overall this game with the majority of his filter being one of three things: campaigning, koshi's alignment, and sylencia's lynch.
What gives me pause is that I still don't particularly trust rayn, even though he's been quick to point out the holes in ritoky's claim. I don't like that he seems so cocksure while being such a prick to everyone in the thread that shows even the slightest hesitation about the claim.
geript I believe is town to an extent, so I don't like that push from rayn either. He seemingly is calling him mafia because he's not on the same page, but any reasonable townie wouldn't be so sure as rayn is. Regardless of the truth in the claiming situation, I don't like rayn coming out of this.
Sloosh and LM are borderline. If ritoky is mafia, there is a moderate chance that one of them is with him. Likewise if Haru/Dam is a team.
If Haru's claim is legitimate, we know for certain that one of koshi/oats was mafia, and that ritoky has only a single partner left. If he's fakeclaiming, we cannot have the same surety, as he would only ever do so in a world where the exorcist is already dead.
I'm leaning heavily toward voting for ritoky but I'm not at all thrilled about the state of the discussion going on at this juncture and all the pressure put towards geript.
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On September 13 2014 05:47 raynpelikoneet wrote:
LoneMeow
HaruRH
raynpelikoneet
geript
slOosh
yamato77
Damdred
ritoky
8 alive. Let's say i am the crusader and get lynched. i shoot ritoky.
5-1. You shoot geript and he is town.
4-1. Mafia soups 3. ggnore.
Hmm i guess you're right.
But if geript is not the last scum, i have no idea who is the last scum. Its like
Scum------------------------ not scum
Ritoky> geript>>>>>>> everyone else
For me.
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11589 Posts
On September 13 2014 05:50 HaruRH wrote:Show nested quote +On September 13 2014 05:47 raynpelikoneet wrote:
LoneMeow
HaruRH
raynpelikoneet
geript
slOosh
yamato77
Damdred
ritoky
8 alive. Let's say i am the crusader and get lynched. i shoot ritoky.
5-1. You shoot geript and he is town.
4-1. Mafia soups 3. ggnore. Hmm i guess you're right. But if geript is not the last scum, i have no idea who is the last scum. Its like Scum------------------------ not scum Ritoky> geript>>>>>>> everyone else For me.
how can you possibly have strong townreads on sloosh and LM
dude
posts like these are why I'm so hesitant to believe the claim
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I was not lazy i was busy.
I am never lazy.
When two people claim cop and one of them says "this dude is 100% mafia lynch him" and the other one says "are you softing my role? whatcha doing man? btw i have a red check on this other guy" who is scum?
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I again fogot LM is in the game. Maybe he is mafia after all.
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11589 Posts
On September 13 2014 05:53 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I was not lazy i was busy.
I am never lazy.
When two people claim cop and one of them says "this dude is 100% mafia lynch him" and the other one says "are you softing my role? whatcha doing man? btw i have a red check on this other guy" who is scum?
if he fakeclaimed, why wouldn't he just redcheck the guy who is cop?
it works both ways rayn
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It would make sense for him to give that random townread on me at D2 start if he knew the cop has checked me.
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On September 13 2014 05:54 yamato77 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 13 2014 05:53 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I was not lazy i was busy.
I am never lazy.
When two people claim cop and one of them says "this dude is 100% mafia lynch him" and the other one says "are you softing my role? whatcha doing man? btw i have a red check on this other guy" who is scum? if he fakeclaimed, why wouldn't he just redcheck the guy who is cop? it works both ways rayn
because it's too suspicious.
- "i have a red chek on you"
- "No, I have a red check on YOU!"
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maybe the oracle visited damdred on N2 and he couldn't possibly claim that.
who the fuck knows.
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11589 Posts
On September 13 2014 05:55 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On September 13 2014 05:54 yamato77 wrote:On September 13 2014 05:53 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I was not lazy i was busy.
I am never lazy.
When two people claim cop and one of them says "this dude is 100% mafia lynch him" and the other one says "are you softing my role? whatcha doing man? btw i have a red check on this other guy" who is scum? if he fakeclaimed, why wouldn't he just redcheck the guy who is cop? it works both ways rayn because it's too suspicious. - "i have a red chek on you" - "No, I have a red check on YOU!"
that's the basis of almost every other cop-counterclaim scenario in mafia, it's not at all unusual or suspicious
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11589 Posts
On September 13 2014 05:56 raynpelikoneet wrote:
maybe the oracle visited damdred on N2 and he couldn't possibly claim that.
who the fuck knows.
Demon: Every night you will learn the targets of the Inquisitor and the Oracle. You will not know which target was targeted by whom.
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well Damdred is just "let's kill this dude he is scum" when ritoky is over-explaining his stuff.
it also makes no sense to check his townread based only on "he argued with robik who i read as town".
it's so obtuse, townies disagree with each other all the time.
why wouldn't he check me on N2 because i tried to lynch his green check most of the day???
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On September 13 2014 05:43 HaruRH wrote:
I GOT A MORE BRILLIANT PLAN.
If we make the crusader out himself and we lynch him, then make him kill ritoky, i may also get a free shot out to geript since oats may be town and a crusader town lynch allows me to shoot.
This way, if i don't shoot and die, we know that oats was 100% scum and if i shoot, we hopefully win. If not, it will be a 2-1 lylo and rayn is guaranteed to be there.
How is this a plan a town proposes Rayn?
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11589 Posts
is there a world where haru and ritoky are both mafia?
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On September 13 2014 05:57 yamato77 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 13 2014 05:56 raynpelikoneet wrote:
maybe the oracle visited damdred on N2 and he couldn't possibly claim that.
who the fuck knows. Demon: Every night you will learn the targets of the Inquisitor and the Oracle. You will not know which target was targeted by whom.
yes and if teh oracle visited damdred mafia knows:
"Oracle and cop visited damdred and ritoky".
damdred claims cop. if ritoky claims a red check on damdred the oracle knows ritoky is mafia. therefore he cannot claim a red on damdred.
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On September 13 2014 05:52 yamato77 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 13 2014 05:50 HaruRH wrote:On September 13 2014 05:47 raynpelikoneet wrote:
LoneMeow
HaruRH
raynpelikoneet
geript
slOosh
yamato77
Damdred
ritoky
8 alive. Let's say i am the crusader and get lynched. i shoot ritoky.
5-1. You shoot geript and he is town.
4-1. Mafia soups 3. ggnore. Hmm i guess you're right. But if geript is not the last scum, i have no idea who is the last scum. Its like Scum------------------------ not scum Ritoky> geript>>>>>>> everyone else For me. how can you possibly have strong townreads on sloosh and LM dude posts like these are why I'm so hesitant to believe the claim
When did i even mention i had strong townreads on sloosh and lonemeow (when i even listed sloosh as scum until my exorcist pm came in)? It just shows that i scumread them to such a large extent that the scumminess of the rest does not show anymore.
If i put it in number form, it would be like...
- = more scummy + = less scummy
-1000 ritoky
-750 geript
-50 sloosh
+10 LM
+50 yamato
+100 rayn
+100 damdred
If ritoky did not mention a red check on me, i might have a tough decision between damdred and ritoky. BUT, he decided i to "red check" me and thus scum claimed. Also, my exorcist pm tells me there is only 2 mafia left, so i am only interested to find 2, which happens to be geript and ritoky.
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On September 13 2014 05:59 yamato77 wrote:
is there a world where haru and ritoky are both mafia?
Not really, no. It's to complicated and i doubt i could myself make a plan like that on the fly when someone claims a red check on you.
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11589 Posts
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maybe if it was blazinghand but it's not.
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11589 Posts
On September 13 2014 06:01 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On September 13 2014 05:59 yamato77 wrote:
is there a world where haru and ritoky are both mafia? Not really, no. It's to complicated and i doubt i could myself make a plan like that on the fly when someone claims a red check on you.
he did take quite a while to post his claim post
meh
haru looks really bad IMO
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EPT
