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On September 09 2014 00:20 kushm4sta wrote:
OK I'm wrong about damdred not being fancy play scum.
Kita I had a thought you might find interesting.
Batsnacks was so sure you were scum and your mission was to vote with the majority. Oddly specific right? Well he had insider information about missions as the mission doctor. What if he was right about a scum mission?
It makes sense that the hosts would give poofter the mission to vote with the majority, and that he would find it impossible given the circumstances.
Also, just want to comment quick on this theory. 100% support. To be honest, we should comb back through bat's filter and look for anything he said about missions. It sucks that we immediately found his behavior suspicious, so he couldn't have clued us in to the "blues having missions" thing without seeming very red himself. But I assume bat would have wanted us to know that blues have missions too, otherwise it makes easy mislynch targets out of otherwise helpful blues.
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Oh, and obviously:
##Vote: Damdred
It's very strange you would claim cop and reveal your N1 check, but then not tell us the result of your N2 check... And how are you still alive anyway, if our doctor is dead? Too many contradictions and not enough votes, imo.
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I followed up on my batsnacks hunch, but I can't see anything in his filter that reveals who he checked. The most likely option is kush or Oats, since those two are the only ones he wasn't accusing/questioning on D2, but it's inconclusive.
The only conclusive part of what I found is that batsnacks definitely didn't check mafia. His questioning and lack of decisiveness near the end of D2 tells me he was still trying to figure it out. Shame it couldn't have been that easy, if he'd just wagoned one person on D2 it would be an easy lynch target today.
I've got a lot more work to finish up, but I scheduled my lunch around deadline, so I'll be back for some pre-conversation. In the meantime, I'd like to ask:
kush, what do you think of Oats?
Oats, what do you think of kush?
Also kita, I skimmed your long post and plan to re-read it in more detail later, so forgive me if this is already answered in the post: What is your likelihood of a 27nb/kush/Damdred/poofter team? Personally, those are my reads, since 27nb and poofter buddied pretty closely at the start and without knowing whether or not poofter knew he was going to fail his mission, I have to assume he knew and left his vote on a scumbuddy to cast him in a good light. This also aligns with the fake claim from Damdred and kush's reluctance to lynch him for it, but that would mean the mafia is running a 2-protect-2 strategy, which is risky in itself. Without getting too far into WIFOM though, I think it's a safe assumption that poofter knew he would fail his mission. Whether or not the other mafia did, your guess is as good as mine.
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On September 10 2014 03:03 Vivax wrote:
3d can you reply to damdeds point.
Also you were one of the batsnacks lynchers yesterday when I proposed that same theory with exception of poofter not being included.
I don't understand what you see in that line both of you keep quoting. I meant exactly what I said; Micchan was the lurkiest in the game at that point, but was not completely inactive. At the time, there was a good chance he was scum, trying to slip quietly past us into D2. But of course, hindsight seems to be blinding you to the fact that without any proper reads, the best decision was to lynch the most likely scummer.
Besides, if I wasn't an idiot and had read the OP, I wouldn't have voted for Micchan anyway. Remember mderg?
And I assume you're referring to this post?
On September 06 2014 14:54 Vivax wrote:
Alright, let's see.
batsnacks - tentatively town
Oatsmaster - town
Tehpoofter - town
Vivax - town
ObiWanShinobi - town
mderg - wanna say town but this guy doesn't play the game
Micchan - ded
The_Templar - ded
3d12 - tentatively town
kitaman27 - tentatively scum
Damdred - scum
kushm4sta - scum
27ninjabunnies - tentatively scum
I have no idea how many scum there are in this game, but with the missions considered it could be easily more than 3 since they are at risk of getting "modkilled" every day, and the mission aspect makes the game harder for them. So I'll opt for 4.
7 town
4 scum
If we ml we're at 5 town 4 scum, that'll be the last chance to kill one of them.
Right now the consensus doesn't seem very huge and that's why we need to get our shit together and decide between these guys I mentioned above.
If you're one of the guys I listed among the townies please tell me who you would agree on among the scummers and who you disagree on.
If you're among the scummers, well, do whatever you have to do.
I disagreed with you because our reads did not align. I had 27nb as town at the time and poof/oats as scum. Since then, I've re-evaluated the game and I believe you're probably more accurate than I initially gave you credit for. I'm about 98% sure that kush is mafia, and Damdred will hang today or I'll eat my hat. But as far as 27nb, maybe it's my bias from D1 still lingering, but I'm having trouble seeing her as mafia. Maybe a re-read will lend me more insight, but I probably won't have time before today's deadline.
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On September 10 2014 04:30 sqrtofneg1 wrote:End of day 3! Damdred the Mafia Mission Roleblocker has been lynched.
Night 3 will end in ( 19:30 GMT (+00:00)). New missions may go out soon.
Ha, finally! Glad we got that one through, especially after he faked the worst roleclaim I've ever seen. GG no re.
This lends some interesting insight, though. Specifically, why were Damdred and poofter voting differently at the end of D2? If kush is part of this scenario as mafia, it makes little sense why poofter would be voting him and Damdred not.
Vivax, I still don't think we're seeing eye-to-eye at this point, so I want to ask you: Which target is better for tomorrow? 27nb or kush?
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On September 10 2014 04:23 kitaman27 wrote:Well since there is no roleblocker I suppose there is no reason not to claim. I'm a Mission Vigilante and I had to make a post with at least 25000 characters (I think the Go Bills put me over the top). I would have tried for it earlier but I didn't have the top. I'll likely just shoot one of the 3 who never showed up today 
If this is true, you are awesome. I love when vigi will save shots until N3 rather than shooting the scummiest-looking person N1. :highfive:
I say fire at will. Your judgment seems pretty sound so far. Especially with Damdred dead now, your shot probably can't be blocked. Who are you thinking of targeting? I'd personally rather see 27nb flip, but you're the one with the gun.
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Welcome, ritoky! 
As for hot topics, the most recent topic is Damdred's lynch. This plays into kita's theory rather well; at least, scenarios 1 and 3. Let's start with that post. Which scenario do you find most likely?
Also, kush and Oats, I'd still like to hear what each of you has to say about the other. Being my only two not-so-solid reads, I'd like to get clearer pieces from the both of you before I examine the whole puzzle again. Thoughts?
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On September 10 2014 19:06 Oatsmaster wrote:
kush is town, I said already, why arent you reading? I said like 2-3 times today man come on.
To be honest, I was expecting a better response than "OMGUS RTFT LOL" from you, especially since you were ribbing kita for being so wishy-washy on D2.
The reason I'm asking is not to find out your reads, that was the part you posted. I want to get an idea of why you feel that way. I do see the following posts about kush from D3:
On September 09 2014 12:12 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2014 11:21 kushm4sta wrote:
ok nvm im at a computer now lol i shouldn't even complain.
kita let me blow your mind a litlte.
poofter/oats/nb woah sick reads bro. Is there the part where you explain nb is bussing me when we have people like damdred and 3d stil alive???
On September 09 2014 22:16 Oatsmaster wrote:
It might not be this easy to catch scum. Check my recent games. All of them are this short. change of lifestyle man.
OK so kush just went off lynching damdred and doesn't mention him as a possible lynch target. Just me and nb. Kush and damdred might actually be scum together
On September 09 2014 22:18 Oatsmaster wrote:
Boo misread. It's k, kush town.
On September 10 2014 00:05 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2014 23:08 Vivax wrote:
Hm, yeah you had 4 pages until N2 in glory seeker, so I'm willing to unscumread you from the activity accusations.
##Unvote
Kita's last post showed he put some serious thought into the game and it's just effort I don't see a scum making.
So Oats, imagine for a moment that me and him are both town, what's your proposed solution? lynch damdred. Its not that i dont trust kush. Its that I dont trust kush. <snip>
On September 10 2014 00:50 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On September 10 2014 00:19 Vivax wrote:
Well Oats, your vote yesterday was on kush.
I can't lynch people alone so we need to figure out who's better between Dam and kush, or even nb who I'm not sure on, and that in terms of scum likelihood and lynchability. Yesterday the lynchability aspect fucked up the whole wagons, cause we had a majority on kush, then Damdred went super scummy, then the townie wagon got momentum instead.
So yeah, need a consensus on one of these two and not a stumbling towards one of them. i did say I changed my mind. Im pretty sure kush is town now.
I'd like to know why you think this though, especially so soon after coming out and saying you don't trust him. Is it this?
On September 07 2014 11:22 Oatsmaster wrote:
kush's flailing makes me think hes town.
<snip>
@kita:
On September 11 2014 01:09 kitaman27 wrote:
3d, should I be giving Vivax a hard time for how day three ended or did he have good intentions?
You absolutely should. Anyone who uses "double swag" unironically deserves a hard time in my book.
No but for reals, what are you referring to? His grudge against the afk?
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On September 11 2014 01:28 Oatsmaster wrote:
Game is confusing.
3d has barely any conversational posts. Just heavily structured and thought about. It could be a playstation or he isn't comfortable without structure as scum. Inclined to think the latter reason just for the constant newbie claims.
If you look at my posting window, most of my posting is done from work. I don't have much time to continually check the thread from here, so I usually try to put more meat into my posts to make up for it. Are you really scumreading me right now for my filter not containing enough fluff?
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On September 11 2014 02:10 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 11 2014 01:58 3d12 wrote:On September 11 2014 01:09 kitaman27 wrote:
3d, should I be giving Vivax a hard time for how day three ended or did he have good intentions? You absolutely should. Anyone who uses "double swag" unironically deserves a hard time in my book. No but for reals, what are you referring to? His grudge against the afk? The fact that he wanted to lynch you instead of damdred, but he didn't have the votes. Is that scummy, a momentary lapse of judgement, or was he right? (Well I'm guessing you're not going to pick #3)
Good guess! :D
I dunno, I'm up in the air about Vivax now; which is weird because I just posted the other day about how I want to align more closely with him, since his reads were pretty accurate all game so far. Checking his filter, I see he did have reasons for switching his vote. The reasoning seems pretty weak/fishy though:
On September 10 2014 03:38 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On September 10 2014 02:56 Damdred wrote:On September 10 2014 02:08 Vivax wrote:Damdred can you explain to me how this line from 3d makes you think he's scum?
All in all, I don't like the idea of a plynch. However, I less like the idea of scum lurking the thread and hopping on whatever bandwagon is hot at the time. Let's change that.
Sure 3d lurked for most of the end day it seemed, and even though he had a lot of scum to pick from he decided to hop on the hot lynch at the moment. So that whole sentence to me is a slip I'm tempted to vote 3d
On September 10 2014 03:48 Vivax wrote:
His scumread on Poofter from D1 basically vanished, and so does he after short posting bursts. He leaves a lot of stuff adressed at him unanswered and I didn't like that. Plus it would be weird for me to be still alive after scumreading kush and Dam, if they were scum.
##Vote 3d12
I mean, for the entirety of D3 he was pushing for a Damdred/kush scum team, and then suddenly I'm in the limelight after a shitty two-line inference from a (now confirmed, previously suspected) scummer and a day-old NK? If anything, that part seems more like he's trying to sneak a doomed scum-buddy into D4 but then goes back to bussing him when he realizes there's too many afk players to make a vote swing. What do you make of it?
Also, I think Vivax's reads are actually good. I re-read some of his filter last night, and I was confused on some of his D1 reads (namely, Templar being scum and the afk-vote on Micchan) but over D2 and D3 he's gotten more focused. The only fishy thing I've noticed about his voting is that Vivax has so far put a ton of weight on personal meta. It really makes me uncomfortable, although seeing Obi flip town after Vivax's flimsy-as-fuck meta defense of his play did reassure me a little. Do you think I'm overthinking it?
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Thank you very much, GlowingBear, for covering for me.
I didn't tell the rest of you, just the hosts, but I had some RL shit happen and I need to move in the next month. So between copious amounts of overtime and looking for a new apartment, I had no time to maintain the illusion of investigation. I'm glad GB was able to step in and make it work.
I'm really glad to have played with you guys, though. Sorry I really fumbled this one, I think that's what threw everyone's reads off in the early game (so, mission accomplished?) was when I was all over the place and being generally very terrible at this game. I hope to play again in the near future though, once I have a new place and some free time.
Also, batsnacks: do you still have your "kita notepad case"? I was interested in seeing it, but more interested in mislynching you at the time. 
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On September 17 2014 11:59 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On September 17 2014 11:54 3d12 wrote:Thank you very much, GlowingBear, for covering for me. I didn't tell the rest of you, just the hosts, but I had some RL shit happen and I need to move in the next month. So between copious amounts of overtime and looking for a new apartment, I had no time to maintain the illusion of investigation. I'm glad GB was able to step in and make it work. I'm really glad to have played with you guys, though. Sorry I really fumbled this one, I think that's what threw everyone's reads off in the early game (so, mission accomplished?) was when I was all over the place and being generally very terrible at this game. I hope to play again in the near future though, once I have a new place and some free time. Also, batsnacks: do you still have your "kita notepad case"? I was interested in seeing it, but more interested in mislynching you at the time. Never feel sorry and downgrade your play. I playing my 8th game and I'm still being called bad. I probably am. Oats is saying my arguments are bad. Funny thing: I never lost a game. Must be people carrying me. It's just ridiculous how people have to downgrade people's play. It's boring. I'm considering quitting mafia after the next game because bad manner is boring me.
To be fair though, I do owe Poofter a personal apology for contributing to his death on D2. Although I will agree, that specific mission is horseshit.
Also, just want to repost something from the mafia QT that you may or may not have noticed: If you take a look at the D2 vote count, if Oatsmaster had made a last-minute switch to Damdred instead, town might have killed all mafia at once. Damdred due to lynch, Poof and me to failed missions. Gotta give credit though, the hosts were trying to balance the missions somewhat, since my mission for D2 was basically the same as Poof's, except without the 1h limitation on vote change.
So if Oats had changed his vote with no time for me to change mine... D2 gg triple-kill. Just some food for thought. 
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On September 17 2014 12:07 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On September 17 2014 12:03 The_Templar wrote:On September 17 2014 11:59 GlowingBear wrote:On September 17 2014 11:54 3d12 wrote:Thank you very much, GlowingBear, for covering for me. I didn't tell the rest of you, just the hosts, but I had some RL shit happen and I need to move in the next month. So between copious amounts of overtime and looking for a new apartment, I had no time to maintain the illusion of investigation. I'm glad GB was able to step in and make it work. I'm really glad to have played with you guys, though. Sorry I really fumbled this one, I think that's what threw everyone's reads off in the early game (so, mission accomplished?) was when I was all over the place and being generally very terrible at this game. I hope to play again in the near future though, once I have a new place and some free time. Also, batsnacks: do you still have your "kita notepad case"? I was interested in seeing it, but more interested in mislynching you at the time. Never feel sorry and downgrade your play. I playing my 8th game and I'm still being called bad. I probably am. Oats is saying my arguments are bad. Funny thing: I never lost a game. Must be people carrying me. It's just ridiculous how people have to downgrade people's play. It's boring. I'm considering quitting mafia after the next game because bad manner is boring me. I'm 0-4 and probably not going to play much again because I suck I want to host games though, looking forwards to that. You don't suck. I remember playing with you and you almost won he newbie game. But it was against me XD This one you were killed night 1. I don't know mafia mission but if you're town and you say night one, it's that because you made a very good job and can blame good scum play or bad town play for losing.
Just want to point out, mafia mission N1 was to kill a non-blue. So yeah, Templar, we killed you because you were guaranteed town. Take it as a compliment.
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On September 18 2014 01:43 Damdred wrote:
Town played a good game, their was also a time where the mission d1 was really ambigous and techincally 3d was going to be killed but mafia members argued succesfully that the mission was worded badly and he lived, so yea their were two times town should of had mafia probably
Yeah, this was my favorite part, to be honest. Although let me clarify that the mission was not worded poorly, it was just open to ambiguous interpretation. It was a learning experience for all parties, and I'm glad the mods made the decision they did. Not just for my sake, but because it also would have been a boring game if my only post was my D1 reads post (which, btw, LOOOOOOOL ty guys for calling that out, it was scummy as fuck) and then I flipped.
On September 18 2014 01:05 kitaman27 wrote:
For example, that one time towards the end of the game, I gave 3d a leading question about your d3 actions, wondering if he would bite on a small detail that could be interpreted as scummy, while failing to acknowledge the content of the rest of your filter.
I totally did this. Forum mafia is hard. 
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EPT
