EPT
Scenario 1:
Mafia poofter, kush, damdred
Game State Prior to d2 lynch:
poofter has been pushing a lynch onto his buddy kush late into the cycle.
damdred has been defending kush all cycle.
kush has very few strong reads towards the end of the cycle and his vote is dictated by being forced to choose between the alternative lynches of damdred and batsnacks. He is the first to point out that my case against batsnacks isn't great and shows a preference towards damdred.
batsnacks is the preferred lynch, but all three mafia are satisfied with sitting back and allowing town to do their dirty work.
A possible explanation of the d2 lynch based on the assumption that all three players are mafia.
With 10 minutes remaining in the cycle, Damdred is MIA. We don't know if he is actually MIA or if he is waiting for the right time to throw down the vote on batsnacks, which he knows is going to look incredibly bad. I tend to think that he's actually at Arby's and not communicating with his team in this scenario.
On September 07 2014 04:20 HaruRH wrote:
kushm4sta (4):Oatsmaster, Tehpoofter, batsnacks, Oatsmaster, 3d12, Vivax, 3d12, Vivax, Tehpoofter, ObiWanShinobi
Damdred (1):Vivax, ObiWanShinobi, kitaman27, batsnacks, Vivax, kushm4sta, batsnacks
batsnacks (4):3d12, 27ninjabunnies, kushm4sta, kitaman27, 3d12, kushm4sta
Currently, kushm4sta is set to be lynched with 4 votes.
kushm4sta (4):
Damdred (1):
batsnacks (4):
Currently, kushm4sta is set to be lynched with 4 votes.
At this point, kush thinks he is dead because Obi's vote is miscounted. He attempts to move votes over to Damdred, stating that he is dead if we try to lynch batsnacks. He also provided reasoning earlier, hinting at a damdred lynch preference.
I point out that kush does not hold majority and he realizes that he can lynch batsnacks and survive. Damdred returns to the thread and votes batsnacks, followed by kush. They have enough votes for a mislynch.
Town Obi moves from kush to Damdred. Deciding that he would rather lynch his scum buddy to save face for himself, rather than to risk too many votes moving off of batsnacks, kush also votes for damdred. Vivax also joins damdred.
Damdred was safe up until this point, but now he has to cop claim to ensure his survival. He claims a green cop check on his buddy to ensure a batsnacks lynch. Now that the votes are there, kush takes this opportunity to switch back to batsnacks, using a poor justification.
Meanwhile, poofter observes without taking any action. He has a mission to complete. It isn't clear if he is aware that he is about to fail.
If he has given up on his mission, his sole goal all cycle has been to distance himself from kush and damdred, so he pushes both of their lynches all cycle. However, having two scum flip at once would be even worse. He decides not to move his vote from kush, even though there are only 2 people left on that wagon. He really wants batsnacks to be the lynch so he doesn't move to damdred to seal his fate. At the same time, he doesn't move his vote at the deadline even though he is about to die because he is too worried that damdred is going to get lynched and a vote on batsnacks would confirmed him as town.
Alternatively, suppose Poofter is on track to complete his mission until the last minute shenanigans. His scum buddies kush and damdred would know what the mission is and do their best to make sure it doesn't fail. I'm struggling to find how this scenario makes sense with these three players. Perhaps mafia started with 4 players and poofter needed to lynch a scum buddy on day two to survive? That would explain the kush bus most of the cycle, however his decision not to vote Damdred at the end casts doubt upon this idea. Would he have preferred Damdred living over himself after that cop claim? I don't think so. Perhaps the lynch couldn't end in a tie and mafia messed up towards the end? Too much speculation here.
Does this make sense?
Well not really, in my opinion. This mafia team would need to be incredibly unorganized in this scenario, all pushing towards different goals.
I know this is going to turn into a wall of text, but take a look at the quotes that I've put together below.
+ Show Spoiler +
On September 05 2014 11:03 Tehpoofter wrote:
Kush - He was in my bangs yesterday but he has fallen a great deal since then. I'm not getting the give a fuck attitude from you I see in a town!kush. You are going to have to give a lot of fucks soon. Kush run down for me your train of thought for today. I want to see your passion.
Damdred - Oats made a really good point about Damdred's vote early on Micchan being completely over justified. He also has been someone who hasn't stuck out to me in any way. Him hoping on late looking abck on the votes looks really bad. Damdred can you tell me what your feelings are on 3d12/bunnies?
Kush - He was in my bangs yesterday but he has fallen a great deal since then. I'm not getting the give a fuck attitude from you I see in a town!kush. You are going to have to give a lot of fucks soon. Kush run down for me your train of thought for today. I want to see your passion.
Damdred - Oats made a really good point about Damdred's vote early on Micchan being completely over justified. He also has been someone who hasn't stuck out to me in any way. Him hoping on late looking abck on the votes looks really bad. Damdred can you tell me what your feelings are on 3d12/bunnies?
On September 05 2014 12:17 Tehpoofter wrote:
I think damdred/kush wagons might be best for today.
I think damdred/kush wagons might be best for today.
On September 05 2014 12:53 Tehpoofter wrote:
I'd vote kush/damdred/bunnies and 3d12
I'd vote kush/damdred/bunnies and 3d12
On September 05 2014 18:11 Tehpoofter wrote:
Put [Kush] on the list with damdred and 3d12 and bunniies and thats the scumlist.
Put [Kush] on the list with damdred and 3d12 and bunniies and thats the scumlist.
On September 05 2014 12:54 Tehpoofter wrote:
Going home but before I do. I think kush/damdred are the best wagons for today.
Going home but before I do. I think kush/damdred are the best wagons for today.
On September 05 2014 18:12 Tehpoofter wrote:
Those voting batsnacks should switch to damdred or kush. These two need to be wagoned.
Those voting batsnacks should switch to damdred or kush. These two need to be wagoned.
On September 06 2014 09:21 Tehpoofter wrote:
I like the people on the damdred wagon it looks pretty good to me. Kush wagon not bad either.
I like the people on the damdred wagon it looks pretty good to me. Kush wagon not bad either.
On September 07 2014 04:12 Tehpoofter wrote:
Previous post but I think also Kush is a better player than damdred I'd rather cut the head off the beast. I will not be shedding any tears if damdred gets lynch today at all.
Previous post but I think also Kush is a better player than damdred I'd rather cut the head off the beast. I will not be shedding any tears if damdred gets lynch today at all.
On September 07 2014 04:23 Tehpoofter wrote:
I'm so much more confident in kush being mafia than batsnacks.
The other wagon should be damdred not batsnacks imo
I'm so much more confident in kush being mafia than batsnacks.
The other wagon should be damdred not batsnacks imo
On September 07 2014 04:26 Tehpoofter wrote:
KUSH OR DAMDRED NEEDS TO DIE TODAY
KUSH OR DAMDRED NEEDS TO DIE TODAY
On September 07 2014 04:27 Tehpoofter wrote:
yo people on bats need to pick a wagon kush > damdred > anyone else.
yo people on bats need to pick a wagon kush > damdred > anyone else.
On September 07 2014 04:30 Tehpoofter wrote:
hahahaahahaha lynch damdred/kush any other this is like for sure a fake claim.
hahahaahahaha lynch damdred/kush any other this is like for sure a fake claim.
I'm just struggling to think of a situation where the mafia team comes out of day two looking good with such a strong push to direct town towards these two players.
What would be the big payoff here? By busing both damdred and kush, he would need to complete his mission and use the town cred to mislynch players on day three, four and five. Does poofter even need the town cred here? Plus, even if he flips kush or damdred, he still needs to find an excuse not to lynch the other on day three. All the town cred in the world doesn't matter if the cost is lynching your two buddies. Why is his priority to double bus, rather than push mafia objectives?
Alternatively, he knows he is a dead man. The mafia need damdred and kush to come out looking like angels because the town leader poofter is flipping. However, with poofter knowing that he is about to die, why is he limiting town's options between his two buddies? Sure, maybe one of the two comes out looking pretty good, but does that mean a whole lot when it's something like 7v1?
At the same time. you've got Damdred defending kush to his last breath linking the two together. You've got kush trying to move votes over to Damdred instead of batsnacks for the sake of putting distance between the two players, which indirectly triggers damdred having to fake claim cop in order to save himself. kush then immediately discards the distancing attempt to vote back with his buddy.
Nobody comes out of the lynch looking town, yet poofter was the one to frame the lynch.
Vivax, since you think this is the most likely scenario, you're going to need to help me understand what I'm misinterpreting here. Am I over-thinking things here, making this giant post pretty useless or does my argument have merit?
Scenario 2:
Mafia poofter, kush
Town damdred
Game state prior to d2 lynch.
poofter has been pushing a lynch onto his buddy kush late into the cycle.
damdred has a genuine town read on mafia kush. It his blinding his outlook on the entire game.
kush has left his options open to either lynch batsnacks or damdred. Self-survival is his main goal.
The lynch preference here is either damdred or batsnacks.
A possible explanation of the d2 lynch based on the assumption that poofter and kush are mafia and damdred is town.
On September 07 2014 04:20 HaruRH wrote:
kushm4sta (4):Oatsmaster, Tehpoofter, batsnacks, Oatsmaster, 3d12, Vivax, 3d12, Vivax, Tehpoofter, ObiWanShinobi
Damdred (1):Vivax, ObiWanShinobi, kitaman27, batsnacks, Vivax, kushm4sta, batsnacks
batsnacks (4):3d12, 27ninjabunnies, kushm4sta, kitaman27, 3d12, kushm4sta
Currently, kushm4sta is set to be lynched with 4 votes.
kushm4sta (4):
Damdred (1):
batsnacks (4):
Currently, kushm4sta is set to be lynched with 4 votes.
kush needs to find a way to wiggle himself out of a lynch. His buddy poofter is unwilling to move his vote since he is playing the role of late game townie scum. kush himself may have suggested the bus.
Even though his reads lead him to preferring damdred, he recognizes batsnacks as his best chance for survival. Keep in mind that at this point, all scum players are either voting for kush or batsnacks.
Looking at the vote count above, it still appears that he is 1 vote short. He decides to try his luck with Damdred as multiple people have left that option open. I inform him that he's not at majority, he moves back to batsnacks. Town obi votes for damdred, he moves back to damdred. This time Vivax joins him.
Damdred shows up with the batsnacks vote and kush throws himself a party. The cop claim is icing on the cake. Since kush isn't a godfather (I assume), poofter and kush know it's a fake claim so they don't need to go all out to lynch the cop.
On September 07 2014 04:28 HaruRH wrote:
kushm4sta (3):Oatsmaster, Tehpoofter, batsnacks, Oatsmaster, 3d12, Vivax, 3d12, Vivax, Tehpoofter, ObiWanShinobi
Damdred (3):Vivax, ObiWanShinobi, kitaman27, batsnacks, Vivax, kushm4sta, batsnacks, kushm4sta, Vivax
batsnacks (4):3d12, 27ninjabunnies, kushm4sta, kitaman27, 3d12, kushm4sta, Damdred
kushm4sta (3):
Damdred (3):
batsnacks (4):
Here is the vote count 2 minutes before the lynch.
The Obi vote is still incorrect. The correct count is actually kush 2, damdred 4, batsnacks 4, with batsnacks hitting critical mass first.
Either way, if it is 3-3-4 or 2-4-4, kush won't be dying. It's either Damdred or batsnacks.
On September 07 2014 04:29 kushm4sta wrote:
##unvote
##vote batsncaks
self preservatoin
##unvote
##vote batsncaks
self preservatoin
Despite the fact that kush is safe, he moves back to batsnacks 1 last time, still claiming self-preservation. I move to damdred, and kush follows. In the end, with 3-4 votes on the other two town wagons, it doesn't matter where he votes.
Does this make sense?
It's possible. With the number of times that kush moves between batsnacks and damdred, it really does look like he only cares about himself.
This would mean that poofter was pushing a lynch between his scum buddy and a town player. With 10 minutes before the lynch, it was 4 votes kush and 4 votes batsnacks. With poofter pushing his preference towards kush instead of damdred, is he happy with this scenario?
I can't imagine he is, especially if he is about to die. I suppose he could have swapped his vote off kush at the last second if damdred never showed up to save the day, but that still leaves mafia in a sticky situation. If poofter lives and kush gets lynched, mafia is in a decent position, but not the ideal position.
While this is possible, I'm not sure it is the most likely.
Scenario 3:
Mafia poofter, damdred
Town kush
Game state prior to d2 lynch.
poofter has been pushing a kush mislynch, banking on the fact that most people consider himself, Vivax, and Oats to be town.
damdred has been defending kush all cycle. He has limited his options early on by taking a firm stance and cannot join his scum buddy poofter.
kush is struggling with deciding who to vote for. Again, his vote is dictated by choosing between the alternatives.
kush or batsnacks is the preferred lynch since either will flip town. They just need to create a scenario where damdred doesn't hold majority, but it doesn't help that he is no where to be seen. Oats, bunnies, Vivax or 3d are doing their best to keep their vote off damdred for as long as possible. Oats and bunnies take the afk route, 3d goes batsnacks, Vivax holds on kush until the vote starts swinging the other way.
A possible explanation of the d2 lynch based on the assumption that poofter and damdred are mafia and kush is town.
On September 07 2014 04:20 HaruRH wrote:
kushm4sta (4):Oatsmaster, Tehpoofter, batsnacks, Oatsmaster, 3d12, Vivax, 3d12, Vivax, Tehpoofter, ObiWanShinobi
Damdred (1):Vivax, ObiWanShinobi, kitaman27, batsnacks, Vivax, kushm4sta, batsnacks
batsnacks (4):3d12, 27ninjabunnies, kushm4sta, kitaman27, 3d12, kushm4sta
Currently, kushm4sta is set to be lynched with 4 votes.
kushm4sta (4):
Damdred (1):
batsnacks (4):
Currently, kushm4sta is set to be lynched with 4 votes.
This is a great position for mafia. Only a single vote on Damdred with 10 minutes to go. Then things start to spiral out of control.
Obi starts to develop a town read on kush and kush has been showing a preference for Damdred.
He is forced to return to the thread and move his vote to the main lynch wagon. He can't vote kush because of prior statements, so he votes for his only choice batsnacks.
The timing only served to hurt his position and mafia lost control of the lynch with obi, vivax, kush, and myself all serving as the deciding votes. poofter does not carry enough cred on his own and is about to die anyways.
In an act of desperation, he claims cop to mislynch batsnacks. He knows he is dead at this point, but at least he gets lynched day 3 instead of day 2. By revealing a green check on kush, it might be enough for kush to be willing to switch over to batsnacks.
Meanwhile, poofter decides to remain on kush. He knows kush is unlikely to get lynched and really wants batsnacks to die over damdred. He doesn't actually vote damdred, to give him a chance, but also doesn't vote batsnacks because he figures damdred is already dead and it would confirm batsnacks as town when both mafia flip.
Does this make sense?
Mafia was content with the status quo up until things began to fall apart. batsnacks and kush were legitimate town wagons. They positioned themselves nicely to make sure the votes were split between the two evenly and then dropped off the face of the earth to make sure it stayed that way. There is no reason to stir up the pot here. poofter is able to push the kush mislynch, while still distancing himself from his buddy damdred. He knows that damdred isn't going to be surviving at endgame, so the goal would be to delay his lynch, not prevent it.
When most of the townies became active at the end of the cycle and seize control, the cop claim was a sign that they didn't have the numbers to save Damdred. He did end up living by pure luck, but poofter may have died by accident as a result.
Scenario 4:
Mafia poofter
Town kush and damdred
Oh geeze, I don't even know if I want to think about this type of scenario. Was day one and two that much of a train-wreck? It likely means that we're dealing with something like a bunnies and Oats scum team.
Oats has posted an extremely limited amount of content and I conclude that bunnies is likely mafia below. I recall bunnies having a scum read on Oats all game, but never pushing it.
I need someone else to look into this scenario and tell me if this is possible.
A look at poofter
The first thing that I'm interested in is seeing how he interacts with his scum buddies in a typical scum game. There is going to be variance from game to game, but there is a decent sample size here so I want to see if I can pick up on any tendencies.
-Cell Mini Mafia-
Buddies: Cephiro, LSB, Palmar, and Steveling
Game ended d2, so not a ton to go by here. There was a relatively low amount of interaction with his buddies.
He is willing to pick out posts from a scum LSB and explain why that makes him town.
He misdirects his suspicion of Steveling by stating that other players look worse.
At no point did he consider pushing a mafia player for lynch.
You Only Shoot Once Mafia
Buddies: gumshoe, Oatsmaster, Ace, Blazinghand, austinmcc, VayneAuthority
In his initial list post for his buddies, he lists only 1 buddy as mafia with several town reads on others, including a very strong town read on austin.
He buses Oats relatively hard early on in the game, along with some of his buddies. Oats eventually gets lynched as a result.
On one point, he makes a list of his scum suspects and three out of the five are town, yet he votes one of the town players as his preference.
Later on in the game, he initiates full bus mode, voting for his only remaining allies. They proceed to get lynched down the line.
Out of his six buddies, he voted for 5 of them at certain points in the game.
-Cell Mini Mafia II-
Buddies: 27ninjabunnies, thrawn/IAmRobik, Shaiopi/OdinOfPergo, and slOosh
There is a high interaction with his buddies. At times, it seems like he goes out of his way to question them for their opinions.
When he provided his list post on his buddies, the only buddy that he throws under the bus is a someone with a low post count. He never goes after them hard.
All three cycles, he pushed the mislynches.
There is the mention of considering a bus, leaving sloosh as the endgame saint.
-World Cup Mini Mafia-
Buddies: Cav and Rainbows
There is a high amount of interaction between himself and his buddies throughout the game.
He repedidly makes an effort in the thread to convince his scum buddy Rainbows that he is town.
He calls Rainbow scum numerous times, but not until after day one. Whenever he brings it up it's always in a group of 2-3 players.
Cav may be a bad example to look at because the early PR claim may warrant different behavior, however in the end he made a relatively risky move and hard defended cav as town, leading to a poofter and cav lynch. Rainbows was the teams endgame player.
Things I take away:
1) When sharing a scum read on his buddy, he will often do it in the form of "1 out of these 3 players is mafia". When given the opportunity to push one of these players, he tends to choose the townie.
2) Scum to scum interaction is above average from what I can tell. He isn't the type of player that pretends his buddies don't exist and only responds to town players.
3) He is not afraid to grant a buddy "confirmed town" status.
4) Busing is in his arsenal, but not necessarily the go-to option.
I share my thoughts on #1 below.
For #2, he interacts with nearly all players this game. At one point, he states that he wants to interact with oats because he hasn't had a chance to do it this game. That seemed a bit unnatural I suppose.
I'm not entirely concerned about #3 as I'm sticking with a town read on Vivax, despite the strongest town read.
#4 leaves open most of the scenarios above.
The poofter-bunnies interaction
On September 03 2014 08:20 Tehpoofter wrote:
3d12 - Your apologetic tone I disagree with batsnacks that it is mainly a townie view point. You agreeing with Damdred felt like an attempt at buddying as well which I don't care for. I understand your new but I haven't gotten the newbie town vibe from you. Also the association with Templar is scummy to me as I pointed out above.
3d12 - Your apologetic tone I disagree with batsnacks that it is mainly a townie view point. You agreeing with Damdred felt like an attempt at buddying as well which I don't care for. I understand your new but I haven't gotten the newbie town vibe from you. Also the association with Templar is scummy to me as I pointed out above.
On September 03 2014 11:51 Tehpoofter wrote:
I agree with your Bunnies read. I'm not too excited on how she talks about 3d parties and stuff wanting to kill them more than mafia as I think Oats pointed out.
I agree with your Bunnies read. I'm not too excited on how she talks about 3d parties and stuff wanting to kill them more than mafia as I think Oats pointed out.
On September 05 2014 11:03 Tehpoofter wrote:
27nb - I am NOT getting bunnies town game this time around. She is not posting in the large flourishes and detail she normally does. She also is very agreeable and was right on Templar showing up good on her reads not saying she can't be right but if she continues to be too right I think this could be a situation like I spoke with bats about earlier. I have her down to #3 frankly because I didn't die in the night and I think she would have been someone to push for my kill. Bunnies can you tell me your thoughts on Kush?
27nb - I am NOT getting bunnies town game this time around. She is not posting in the large flourishes and detail she normally does. She also is very agreeable and was right on Templar showing up good on her reads not saying she can't be right but if she continues to be too right I think this could be a situation like I spoke with bats about earlier. I have her down to #3 frankly because I didn't die in the night and I think she would have been someone to push for my kill. Bunnies can you tell me your thoughts on Kush?
On September 05 2014 12:53 Tehpoofter wrote:
I want like 4 votes today. I'd vote kush/damdred/bunnies and 3d12
I want like 4 votes today. I'd vote kush/damdred/bunnies and 3d12
On September 06 2014 09:21 Tehpoofter wrote:
I really wish I had about 4 different votes. I'd be on kush/damdred/3d/bunnies.
I really wish I had about 4 different votes. I'd be on kush/damdred/3d/bunnies.
On September 07 2014 04:23 Tehpoofter wrote:
Batsnacks wagon: Bunnies (scummy inactive) kitaman (townie) 3d12 (townie) kush (scummy)
Batsnacks wagon: Bunnies (scummy inactive) kitaman (townie) 3d12 (townie) kush (scummy)
If we're looking for a player who poofter is repedidly suspicious of, but never actually pushes for a lynch, then bunnies is the the best fit. From start to finish, poofter finds her behavior suspicious. However, there is always someone else that he is going after. On day one, it's the M guy (sorry, I still forget your name, but that's more your fault than mine). On day two, he is too busy pressuring 3d and then swaps to the kush/damdred push.
There is actually a fair amount of interaction between the two players, but it is always casually asking for reads and opinions. When you play a high volume of games with a certain player, you start to really get a good understanding of how they player. Typically, they are the player that you're more willing to focus on because you can draw on the experience of past games.
On September 05 2014 13:31 27ninjabunnies wrote:
Kita/Poof you are wrong on me. If you can't see this is my town game, then you can't read me at all.
Kita/Poof you are wrong on me. If you can't see this is my town game, then you can't read me at all.
This post in particular draws my attention. What better person to read her than poofter? Yet when she accuses poofter as being incapable of doing so, she doesn't find this suspicious.
Throughout the game, her reads have been wrong. I've had my fair share of incorrect reads this game, but at least I'm trying to solve things. Bunnies has been really busy, but you have to go by what she has posted. As I mentioned earlier, she stated that she was "finding mafia", but that really wasn't the case at the time.
The poofter-3d interaction
+ Show Spoiler +
On September 05 2014 10:19 Tehpoofter wrote:
I agree on bigger fish to fry. I don't think hes not worth running up to see how he and others react to the pressure.
##Vote 3d12
I agree on bigger fish to fry. I don't think hes not worth running up to see how he and others react to the pressure.
##Vote 3d12
On September 05 2014 11:04 Tehpoofter wrote:
I'm using a pressure cooker.
I'm using a pressure cooker.
On September 05 2014 11:08 Tehpoofter wrote:
I really want to see what happens with some pressure on 3d12 as well.
I really want to see what happens with some pressure on 3d12 as well.
On September 05 2014 11:46 Tehpoofter wrote:
Curiously who is scum reading 3d12 right now aside from myself?
I feel like its odd so many people are coming out to defend him maybe I'm just super wrong but him not getting any pressure I think is bad for town.
Curiously who is scum reading 3d12 right now aside from myself?
I feel like its odd so many people are coming out to defend him maybe I'm just super wrong but him not getting any pressure I think is bad for town.
On September 05 2014 12:17 Tehpoofter wrote:
I wanted to pressure 3d12 but that might need to wait.
I wanted to pressure 3d12 but that might need to wait.
On September 06 2014 09:21 Tehpoofter wrote:
It bugs me my pressure on 3d12 was ignored maybe I'm just missing something.
It bugs me my pressure on 3d12 was ignored maybe I'm just missing something.
On September 06 2014 09:26 Tehpoofter wrote:
##Vote 3d12
Hai I think you're mafia. How do you plead?
##Vote 3d12
Hai I think you're mafia. How do you plead?
On September 06 2014 10:20 Tehpoofter wrote:
I'd like to see from 3d12 where his heads at. If he convinces me then I'm okay moving off but if not I'm going to pressure someone I think is scummy.
I'd like to see from 3d12 where his heads at. If he convinces me then I'm okay moving off but if not I'm going to pressure someone I think is scummy.
On September 06 2014 10:40 Tehpoofter wrote:
Will you pressure 3d12 with me before then
Will you pressure 3d12 with me before then
This honestly has to be the strangest part of the game. You've got 3d, a player that multiple players are sharing strong town reads on and you have poofter spending a large amount of day two trying to "pressure" him. Look at the sheer number of times he mentions "pressure" and 3d in the same sentence.
The question to ask here is whether he:
A) Trying to push a mislynch on a newbie 3d
B) Trying to pretend to be pushing town objectives
C) Trying to get players to vote for 3d to fufill some type of mission requirement
D) Trying to put distance between himself and his buddy
I've having a hard time believing that poofter actually thinks he can pull off a 3d lynch at any point this game. The "pressure" that he is actually generating is near non-existent. Right now I'm leaning between B and C.
At some point in the game, you have to trust somebody. I'm going to be putting my trust into Vivax and 3d. If you've fooled me, then well played. I can't imagine a scenario where I would lynch one of you two over the four other remaining players.
Earlier, when I unvoted Damdred, I was mostly interested in getting him to share his thoughts about who we would lynch. If it was a 6-1 vote, I figured that he would shut down and give us nothing. As much as a really tried to evaluate the alternatives and give you a shot to prove that you were town, I still came to the conclusion that scenario 3 was the most likely. I read your posts since the ultimatum and really you were only able to come up with a couple quotes from 3d. The followup is missing and so is the second mafia read. The cycle is 3/4th of the way over already so that's really not enough to change my mind. Fake claiming cop is one of the mafia deadly sins since you either need make sure it pays off or you not only bring down yourself, you bring down another player with you.
tl;dnr:
If anyone replies tl;dnr, then I policy lynch you -_-
For all the time that I spent on this, I really didn't come to all the conclusions I was hoping. I can't imagine myself doing something like this any time soon. Sorry for any long rambling section or typos. I don't have the time to go back and edit things.
I don't think poofter, kush, and damdred all being mafia together makes sense.
Out of the three scenarios, a mafia damdred makes the most sense to me.
bunnies doesn't look good based on poofter's filter, but neither does oats.
poofter//damdred//bunnies or poofter//damdred//oats seems like the most likely trio to me.
Even though this post hasn't solved the game, maybe it will help another townie pick up on something that didn't see initially. Let me know what you guys think. If you're looking for homework, here are a few things to look at. I really can't afford to spend much more time on this game anymore.
-Is scenario A, B, C, or D most likely. Are there any that we can eliminate? Is poofter//bunnies//oats something we should worry about?
-Can you find an example of kush in any previous game seemingly caring so much about his personal survival? Was he town or mafia in that game?
-Where should Oats be placed in the lynch priority list?
Also, for good measure, Go Bills.
![[image loading]](http://s3.amazonaws.com/br-cdn/temp_images/2014/09/07/4b798fa4dceccf52da3aa2c7b3a93b20.gif)
