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On August 11 2014 12:18 WaveofShadow wrote:wtf is this? Show nested quote +On August 11 2014 12:08 Eden1892 wrote:
My case on Holyflare has more than association reads... in fact the strongest point has nothing to do with associations at all. Hell, where do they rely on associations? I'm pretty sure my case is built on the confidence-accuracy discrepancy (best way to summarize it) and nightkill analysis.
Cases on JAT and goodkarma are in fact primarily associations which isn't great until the dominoes start falling, but that's okay because Holyflare is the first domino and my case on him isn't built on them.
Link your case on Holyflare again? Or I'll pull it up in your filter. Might help reinforce my read and/or persuade others. Anything we can get! And this is flat out untrue---a great deal of the NK analysis you did is based on association. Talking about who kush wanted dead---association. The strongest point isn't particularly strong, that's all. 'He's still alive' isn't reason enough for me to want to lynch him solely based on that. If you want to see some research and effort put into cases, go look up some of the stuff Foolishness has done. He may not always be right (lol in fact in my experience he's wrong quite a bit) but the cases he writes up bring out a lot of in-thread evidence as well as meta as well as potential association. Multi-faceted and brilliant at times, and often very convincing. This one, not so much. Show me how Haru is all of a sudden super town exactly. Some of his posts today I admit had townie vibes to them, but what HF said about him is completely true. He showed up, promised a whole bunch of shit and then did DICK ALL. What is towny about that? Does it look like he actually cared about the lynch from what he posted? I know we're supposed to be re-evaluating everything right now but this HF v Eden shit is wigging me out for some reason.
We're clearly operating under different definitions of "association." I've never heard "dead townie wanted X dead" referenced as an "association" argument. I also don't think it's terrible, and I've already explained why I don't think so.
The strongest point is the confidence-accuracy discrepancy as I've already said. Please comment on that? Your summary of my argument as "he's alive" is really inaccurate and I'm honestly not sure how you got that out of it.
RE: Haru I'll go reread his day today and see what I think, I remember the tone of his posts was that confident, sorta-pissed Haru that I was expecting to see. There's also the argument (that I think I made in the big post? but I don't remember now LOL I'll have to check) that Haru got scumread by too many people d1 to be mafia. With the way the thread was going and how many viable targets were available it's just hard to believe that we managed to consolidate onto a mafia. Although tbh if anything that also points to Holyflare if Haru is mafia, since he led a last-minute lynch on not-Haru. I think Haru's town so I didn't mention that earlier, but Haru/Holyflare scumteam also works from what I can recall (will have to reread and see though).
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On August 11 2014 12:21 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2014 12:18 Eden1892 wrote:On August 11 2014 12:16 Holyflare wrote:On August 11 2014 12:10 Eden1892 wrote:
The problem is that I'm sure when you're town your arguments actually make sense.
Why in the fuck did you think Poofter and gobble were a scumteam? Is it so hard for you to wrap your brain around? Both have been super scummy all game. Both have scum read each other with no faltering since day one. Both of them had the most useless reasons to scum read each other. Looked a lot like a bus scenario. I've asked this before and you didn't answer it as far as I can tell, so I'll ask again. What scum motivation exists for two mafia to hardcore bus each other from halfway through d1? The problem isn't that it's possible but that it's pretty unlikely. It doesn't make sense for mafia to do that here. I answered it and you ignored it. Look how much you defended them for it. If they are both mafia then it's free pass to end game. Believe it or not I've played a lot of mafia and know
I swear to God I addressed this, I know I was typing a reply to it at some point and I'm gonna be mad if I never actually sent it b/c I was busy irl at the time.
This strikes me as a terribly unproductive attempt to push the scum agenda. In a 3-person game, two of them just intermittently check in, don't do anything to solve the game state, look involved or push discussion, but instead just talk loudly about killing each other without actually making an effort to do so, all in the hopes that someone comes through, kills one of them and townreads the other for it?
It isn't impossible looking strictly at the "tactics" so to speak - the arguments they were employing, the degree to which they were pushing the lynch - but it doesn't paint a coherent "strategic" picture for a scumteam. There's one guy trying to mislead the whole town in a game where the mafia have to force four mislynches to win?
It just doesn't make sense. It's not impossible, but again you were so sure that was a bus and refused to even consider another angle. The confidence you had in them being scum busing from the start was significantly disproportionate to the level of certainty I would expect a townie to have in that argument. And then as it turns out... nope, not busing at all.
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The discrepancy argument, Wave:
On August 11 2014 10:29 Eden1892 wrote:
Furthermore, I've called attention to it on a couple of occasions this game - Holyflare's strength of conviction in his arguments is entirely disproportionate to their strength. The most notable instance was his insistence that both Poofter and gobble were likely to flip scum, even though they had both been scumreading the hell out of each other from midway through day 1. I've been hesitant about this point to an extent because it's been in doubt; after all it had been possible that both flipped scum and Holyflare is actually some godmode town savant genius. But we now know he was wrong, and in retrospect, it's pretty fucking obvious that he was wrong.
I get the confusion since I didn't explicitly use "discrepancy" in it, but read it and you'll see what I mean I think
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On August 11 2014 12:38 Holyflare wrote:
So what's my mafia agenda there then? Act super confident they are bussing and then....? Oh yes nothing.
Duh, if they're both town then you want a double kill (with Poofter modkill) so you win. You said it right around the time I pointed out that if both are town and Poofter gets modkilled and we lynch gobble, it's game over for town. You wanted both kills so you could get the win right there and you oversold it a bit to try to get the kill. Ultimately it got rendered moot by Poofter's return.
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On August 11 2014 12:39 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2014 12:37 Eden1892 wrote:On August 11 2014 12:21 Holyflare wrote:On August 11 2014 12:18 Eden1892 wrote:On August 11 2014 12:16 Holyflare wrote:On August 11 2014 12:10 Eden1892 wrote:
The problem is that I'm sure when you're town your arguments actually make sense.
Why in the fuck did you think Poofter and gobble were a scumteam? Is it so hard for you to wrap your brain around? Both have been super scummy all game. Both have scum read each other with no faltering since day one. Both of them had the most useless reasons to scum read each other. Looked a lot like a bus scenario. I've asked this before and you didn't answer it as far as I can tell, so I'll ask again. What scum motivation exists for two mafia to hardcore bus each other from halfway through d1? The problem isn't that it's possible but that it's pretty unlikely. It doesn't make sense for mafia to do that here. I answered it and you ignored it. Look how much you defended them for it. If they are both mafia then it's free pass to end game. Believe it or not I've played a lot of mafia and know I swear to God I addressed this, I know I was typing a reply to it at some point and I'm gonna be mad if I never actually sent it b/c I was busy irl at the time. This strikes me as a terribly unproductive attempt to push the scum agenda. In a 3-person game, two of them just intermittently check in, don't do anything to solve the game state, look involved or push discussion, but instead just talk loudly about killing each other without actually making an effort to do so, all in the hopes that someone comes through, kills one of them and townreads the other for it? It isn't impossible looking strictly at the "tactics" so to speak - the arguments they were employing, the degree to which they were pushing the lynch - but it doesn't paint a coherent "strategic" picture for a scumteam. There's one guy trying to mislead the whole town in a game where the mafia have to force four mislynches to win? It just doesn't make sense. It's not impossible, but again you were so sure that was a bus and refused to even consider another angle. The confidence you had in them being scum busing from the start was significantly disproportionate to the level of certainty I would expect a townie to have in that argument. And then as it turns out... nope, not busing at all. The bolded rings fairly true, however.
I would hope! Give the paragraph I linked a reread, I made this argument initially and I think you missed it?
I also brought this up back during n1 when kush was around
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On August 11 2014 12:44 Holyflare wrote:
And the trap thing i only town read you after yoy said it's in the op later so wp if you're mafia for that
You're gonna have to explain this for me because my interpretation of it (a) probably isn't fair and (b) is that this is terrible.
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Also Wave I read your case and yeah it's better than mine. Sorry I missed it earlier, I think I glazed over reading it last night because I was tired and forgot about it, so my bad. Excuses excuses but it's been a busy 24 hrs for me
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On August 11 2014 12:46 Holyflare wrote:
You're wasting your time eden instead of actually analysing the game
Says the guy just calling me scum for no reason lol
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Ugh, roughly speaking the kush/me(/onegu actually forgot about him) v holyflare arguing starts around p100 and goes on for pages, to cite a source on that argument. I'm going to have to go through his filter and pinpoint the examples exactly, it's there but the words just aren't coming right now and it's so fucking frustrating.
I'll go look at your case first, it'll probably take less time than a 20-pg filter dive
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Going down the list:
1. Bullying argument - I agree with the observation, I figured it wasn't worth arguing when it happened (if you'll check, I'm the person he's saying that to). As you can see, it obviously didn't help, because my concerns certainly weren't assuaged by his belligerent insistence on his towniness, and here we are. This is a similar argument (not the same though) to the confidence-accuracy discrepancy argument I made earlier, I think. At least, it comes from the same place: it's someone who's trying to push people into doing what he wants.
I hate having to dip into meta because I'm pretty sure there's a non-meta argument for that being scummy, I'm just not finding the words. But I have one brief exposure to Holyflare before that, the more I think about it, is pretty illuminating. He subbed into Melee Mini Mafia on n2 as town. He demonstrably worked much harder to prove his case than he did here. There's a clear interest in persuading people to go along with him here that's absent in the "bullying" posts from him throughout the game. It's still a hard argument, because you would think that he would be equally motivated to be convincing as scum or town, right? But in my own past experience across multiple different communities, even when there's a clear incentive for scum and town to be convincing, town are overwhelmingly more likely to be concerned with it. I think it's because they don't have all the answers, and so they're more motivated to find them.
2. "Back pocket" reads - agree not sure I need to elaborate more on it. Might be worth noting that one of those you identified even in your cursory list (Artanis, replaced by Onegu) flipped town.
3. "Taking credit" argument - I don't remember him doing this a whole lot other than the example you mentioned. It certainly happened there and it's certainly false, and it probably reinforces the confidence-accuracy discrepancy, because it's part of him building himself up as having all the answers (confidence) despite the fact that the results (accuracy) say otherwise. But I don't think it's all that prevalent? Maybe you could develop this further and show it though.
4. "Buddying marv" observations - My best attempt to summarize them. Agreed, it's just hard to put a lot of stock into this since marv was 'buddying' (or the equivalent) pretty hard onto Holyflare too. At one point in the argument I linked earlier marv comes in and basically tells us all to stop because it's unproductive. (To my own weakness I did stop around that point.)
I also want to develop that specific example I cited from before. It's kind of superficially amusing actually, both games Holyflare accuses Poofter of busing a scum partner, both games Poofter flips town (or "flips," Poofter survived the other one). Here's where it gets significant: both times people ask him "hey Holyflare, why is this a bus? I don't get this at all" or something to that extent. In Melee Mini, where he was town, he writes HUGE paragraphs with cited examples and all that clearly try hard to convince the audience that yes, Poofter was scum busing.
Here? "Lol duh it's a free ticket to endgame noob how do u not see this scum." Like he's not at all interested in convincing me that his reasoning made sense. Sure some of it is because it's already happened and catching mafia off of it (assuming he were town) is unlikely, but at the same time where were these explanations when he was arguing it and getting quizzical responses during the day? Where's the same level of effort? It's just not there. And it hasn't been all game, tell the truth - sure he's pushed fairly hard on his targets, but the level of thoroughness, attention to detail and depth is lacking.
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Damn I really don't want to read this filter. Lol
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Oh thank fuck I misread that as coming from gobble instead of goodkarma.
Holy shit I felt a lot better
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Dude I'm gonna flip 50 shits if I was actually right on all 3 of them
Omg
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Fine, I'll bite.
GOODKARMA: Who should we make the CEO of /towncircle Co. for the rest of the game? Also be sure to name two successors since our leader(s) will surely be killed off. Actually name 3 since that's how many nightkills the mafia have before we win
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On August 11 2014 13:11 HaruRH wrote:
I just woke up.
Now we in lylo? Damn.
Looks like I was wrong on pooft then.
I would say hf have a decent chance to be scum now ttht I don't feel any town pull from him. Nothing screams 'sheep me you fools'
Does anything scream "sheep me you fools" instead?
Cause... I think I'm finally getting somewhere
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On August 11 2014 14:23 goodkarma wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2014 13:53 Eden1892 wrote:
Fine, I'll bite.
GOODKARMA: Who should we make the CEO of /towncircle Co. for the rest of the game? Also be sure to name two successors since our leader(s) will surely be killed off. Actually name 3 since that's how many nightkills the mafia have before we win Do you seriously think we stand a snowflake's prayer in hell of getting through this game without ensuring everyone consolidates? What I suggested is one way to ensure a non-scum influenced lynch. There's enough scummy people in this game right now that we're very unlikely to go 3 for 3 otherwise. Otherwise scum just goes "yeah this guy looks scummy," steers a lynch, and we lose gg. As it is, it's a very hard battle. I kinda doubt we recover and win this. But /sheep is the best thing we can do. And if you /sheep the dude who just died, you guarantee a townie-led lynch. And if you have that dude post the desired lynch target just before deadline, scum nightkill couldn't have possibly been influenced by directing a mislynch based on people's reads. There's no doubt other ways to go about this, but I like mine the bestest. If you want to come up with your own method feel free to, but I'd encourage you to think up something instead of berating me and fast. It's pretty clear you're going pants-on-head right now. Quite honestly, if you're going to be super-bad and disregard any suggestions to ensure some semblance of consolidation and as a result, ensure we lose, I really don't have the energy to argue right now. I can't be bothered to dive in and solve this game anything I say will probably get ignored anyway. People have this super-stupid idea that if you don't post a ton you don't have anything meaningful to say. And so we get caught up in this shit-post war when anything off the top of your mind gets thrown onto paper and posted. It doesn't do anyone any favors, makes the game unreadable, and hurts town. This is probably my last game for at least a while. It was nowhere near this bad before, and I honestly can't understand how it ever got this way. Only playing limited post games if I play in the future 20+ page shitfilters aren't worth my time.
Sheeping whoever the mafia nightkills is literally putting the game into the mafia's hands unless all the townies are on the same page (at which point we don't even need to sheep). No matter what we try to come up with, solving the consolidation problem is hard and there are no easy solutions; welcome to LYLO, it fucking blows. What definitely won't solve the game is agreeing to sheep beforehand. Everyone should be busting their balls trying to figure this thing out. And in that vein, how are you gonna look at me, goodkarma, tell me I'm going pants-on-head super-stupid, tell me you don't think you can be bothered to solve the game and then just talk about consolidation and needing to work together? This sounds to me like you're saying "You're wrong and I don't feel like explaining why," which is... Understandable I guess if you really are town and mad, but it's also alarming and giving me scarce little reason to reconsider my scum read on you.
As an aside... And if I'm wrong I'm about to make an ass out of myself but I'm sure I've already done that if I'm wrong so fuck it: this complaining about the activity level doesn't seem genuine to me. You see gents, goodkarma and I were hydras in Melee Mini, a game of comparable activity level to this one. Goodkarma didn't post much but he had no trouble keeping up with the game and giving me bunches of good reads and advice as I did my thing. I can see his complaint to some degree since the quality of the activity in this game is lower than that one, but I don't think the game is significantly more difficult to read than that one. Maybe this is goodkarma's boiling point... Or he's mafia. If it's the former then I really am sorry but I think it's the latter and I feel pretty good about that read.
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On August 11 2014 20:30 Holyflare wrote:
I've posted almost entirely on my phone this game hence the not over elaborate posts (you can tell for future reference if i start post with capital letters)
That explains away a fair number of the stylistic discrepancies, but I still feel like your reads this game haven't been as well-explained as I expected. Especially given your confidence level in them
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In order I want to lynch Holyflare then goodkarma. I'm kinda waffly on my Haru and justanothertownie reads and so I don't mind waiting until the end for that. But I'm more confident in Holyflare and goodkarma than I've been in any read I can remember all game; if I'm right on them then I think my reads on everyone else pretty well fall into place by associations; and if I'm wrong then we lose anyway, so I would rather focus attention on the reads I feel good about and see if I can get them lynched or if I have another change of heart.
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omg no it's not, does anybody even read my posts anymore smh
The key point about Holyflare that I've emphasized over and over is the discrepancy I see between the strength of his arguments and the fervor with which he's pushed them. Pushing things you believe in is townie to a point, but if the things you're pushing flat-out don't make sense - like the Poofter/gobble superbus - and you're stating them in terms that are grossly overselling their strength, I consider that scummy because it betrays a certain intractability that comes from not having a dynamic picture of the game state. Doubly so if, like with the Poofter/gobble argument, there's a clear scum motive for pushing it.
Wave didn't put it in the same terms in his case on Holyflare, but he observed a different manifestation of that intractability, which I discussed in my analysis of his case. Holyflare isn't trying to convince people of the validity of his positions, and when you sit down and look at some of the arguments he's pushed, it's probably because the positions he holds aren't actually valid at all on deeper inspection. I keep harping on the Poofter/gobble thing but it really is a great example of what I mean. There's no fucking reason to think they were busing with the ironclad confidence with which he did! None whatsoever! I have to keep acknowledging it's possible because, well, it is (barring the flip blabla), but there's no reason to believe it's the most likely outcome, let alone the far-and-away most likely outcome like Holyflare thought. The scum motive is obvious, a double kill on townies there = gg. In fact gobble if you're town you specifically should find this compelling because you're the only person who knows without a doubt that you're town.
As far as the order it's important to me to get Holyflare first because I feel like the longer this goes on the more likely it is to lose steam and never get pursued, especially if I get nightkilled before he gets lynched. The only time I really felt like I was making sense of the game state was when I was pushing on Holyflare n1 with kush, and I let myself get talked down by marv and a couple others I can't remember and I hate that I did that. I'm not letting this get away again. Please don't let this guy get away, he's too fucking good at arguing himself out of a bind.
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EPT
