EPTOn August 11 2014 09:23 Holyflare wrote:
and they switched because they thought the poofter wagon was more pure
and they switched because they thought the poofter wagon was more pure
Where do they say that? The bussing thing?
World Heavyweight Championship mafia III - Page 10
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WaveofShadow
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Where do they say that? The bussing thing? | ||
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On August 11 2014 09:41 Eden1892 wrote: Are you motherfuckers retarded? Everyone voted and there were two candidates. It's not possible not to have a majority, dumbshits! And what does that mean to you? Also somebody answer me about this: On August 11 2014 09:28 WaveofShadow wrote: But then why did nobody listen to Poofter when he mentioned that earlier? I think that's HF and JAT. Also GK disappears right as Poofter shows up and then posts this awful business during the scramble On August 11 2014 06:59 goodkarma wrote: I haven't looked at this game in quite a while. Like I got sick of sifting through 10+ page filters full of mostly shit and decided to just give it a break and sheep people I had pegged as most likely town. Without Eden here voting Poof doesn't really make sense. We'd need LITERALLY EVERY TOWNIE to follow, and I don't think that's very likely given our time constraints. Literally everyone on the Poof wagon I have misgivings about right now, so there's that too. On August 11 2014 07:02 goodkarma wrote: It's worth noting that while I don't feel good about Poof still, that he'd spend way more effort on one game than the other and possibly be town in both isn't that unrealistic to me. I remember bunnies doing something similar and getting mislynched for it D1 a few games back. And this earlier on in the day. On August 10 2014 10:50 goodkarma wrote: I don't remember this 24 hour day thing... Was this a decision the host ninja'ed after the fact? I see OP was edited today... Poofter/Goob at least one is probably scum. Poofter's filter is 90%+ shitposts and I'm tired of reading it. ##Vote: Poofter #Choices For a guy who admits that all he wanted to do was sheep he sure spends a lot of time explaining and hedging his bets. I DUN LIKE IT | ||
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sorry dood <3 There are better reasons to think HF is scum than what you've commented on---once again no one has bothered to glance at the details of my earlier case on HF. I would think if you really want to get him lynched you'd be coming up with more than association-based reads, which are by definition, weak. | ||
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Like...Haru really isn't super towny in any way. The mathematical analysis of GKs filters is really weird and ignores any potential circumstantial or style-based reasons for posting more or less. It's all coming across is pretty forced and I don't know what to make of that. | ||
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On August 11 2014 12:07 Holyflare wrote: Eden i know you're mafia btw wtf is this? On August 11 2014 12:08 Eden1892 wrote: My case on Holyflare has more than association reads... in fact the strongest point has nothing to do with associations at all. Hell, where do they rely on associations? I'm pretty sure my case is built on the confidence-accuracy discrepancy (best way to summarize it) and nightkill analysis. Cases on JAT and goodkarma are in fact primarily associations which isn't great until the dominoes start falling, but that's okay because Holyflare is the first domino and my case on him isn't built on them. Link your case on Holyflare again? Or I'll pull it up in your filter. Might help reinforce my read and/or persuade others. Anything we can get! And this is flat out untrue---a great deal of the NK analysis you did is based on association. Talking about who kush wanted dead---association. The strongest point isn't particularly strong, that's all. 'He's still alive' isn't reason enough for me to want to lynch him solely based on that. If you want to see some research and effort put into cases, go look up some of the stuff Foolishness has done. He may not always be right (lol in fact in my experience he's wrong quite a bit) but the cases he writes up bring out a lot of in-thread evidence as well as meta as well as potential association. Multi-faceted and brilliant at times, and often very convincing. This one, not so much. Show me how Haru is all of a sudden super town exactly. Some of his posts today I admit had townie vibes to them, but what HF said about him is completely true. He showed up, promised a whole bunch of shit and then did DICK ALL. What is towny about that? Does it look like he actually cared about the lynch from what he posted? I know we're supposed to be re-evaluating everything right now but this HF v Eden shit is wigging me out for some reason. | ||
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/463513-world-heavyweight-championship-mafia-iii?page=153#3056 | ||
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On August 11 2014 12:07 Holyflare wrote: Eden i know you're mafia btw Honestly if Eden is mafia he must be pulling some serious HF-before everyone-knew-he-was-real-good-at-scum-level shit. I'm not sure what you're basing this on. In fact, I'm pretty sure you're lying. | ||
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When you have suspicions of me you're constantly voicing them. | ||
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On August 11 2014 12:23 ObiWanShinobi wrote: Again, I'm still voting you and you don't seem to give a shit. And I'm blatantly not even reading the thread right now. Who are you even talking to Cav? And it's night. | ||
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Oh fuck you you KNOW I hate this shit. Fine I'm leaving for now. | ||
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On August 11 2014 12:27 Holyflare wrote: Don't leave i actually stayed up to talk to you because i think you are town now Then I don't wnt any of this smoke and mirrors horseshit. I'm actually pretty surprised at myself that I caught on earlier. If you want to talk to me then talk. | ||
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On August 11 2014 12:27 Eden1892 wrote: We're clearly operating under different definitions of "association." I've never heard "dead townie wanted X dead" referenced as an "association" argument. I also don't think it's terrible, and I've already explained why I don't think so. The strongest point is the confidence-accuracy discrepancy as I've already said. Please comment on that? Your summary of my argument as "he's alive" is really inaccurate and I'm honestly not sure how you got that out of it. RE: Haru I'll go reread his day today and see what I think, I remember the tone of his posts was that confident, sorta-pissed Haru that I was expecting to see. There's also the argument (that I think I made in the big post? but I don't remember now LOL I'll have to check) that Haru got scumread by too many people d1 to be mafia. With the way the thread was going and how many viable targets were available it's just hard to believe that we managed to consolidate onto a mafia. Although tbh if anything that also points to Holyflare if Haru is mafia, since he led a last-minute lynch on not-Haru. I think Haru's town so I didn't mention that earlier, but Haru/Holyflare scumteam also works from what I can recall (will have to reread and see though). Holyflare has no reason to be alive right now. He was the only "townie" who had any direction on day 1 and organized a last-minute lynch, and kush got nightkilled instead of him. Kush was obvious town, but Holyflare was generally in the town pile for everyone too, and unlike kush Holyflare was a direct threat to get people lynched. Then marv gets killed last night, and while marv was also in everyone's town pile (and Holyflare wasn't as much anymore), marv had been straight up wrong on both lynches and Adkins out the whole night. The one time he really took charge and showed direction he was off. This kill makes some sense to me over Holyflare but not really; I feel like if we assume Holyflare is town he's played a better game than marv. In any case he's going to survive tonight while I, a townie who until this point had no meaningful direction in the thread, die. And that's not going to make sense, and if I don't say something now people will go "oh, no surprise there, Eden was obvtown, Holyflare lemme sheep u 2 victory" and we'll lose. If this is what you mean by the discrepancy then it really just does boil down to 'he's still alive.' Maybe you look into it more because you're not as used to playing with HF as I am, but HF is a very VERY good player. As is marv. Many people mentioned this all game, but when players like tham are still alive after some period of time, one begins to question why. Obviously if HF is scum and pushing lynches and being wrong then there's going to be a discrepancy. As for marv's townread on Haru, I didn't like it at the time and I still don't. Marv essentially assumes (and so do you) that because a shit ton of people wanted him dead he must be town. This is false for two possible reaspons: a) He assumes that because such a large number are pushing Haru they must be wrong that early in the game. b) He assumes that scum won't bus. HF is once again an excellent example of why that is simply untrue. | ||
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On August 11 2014 12:31 Holyflare wrote: I'm in a dilemma where i have too many town reads because i think gobble might be town based on crazy amounts of afk stacked lynching Who are your strongest townreads at this point? I see your problem I suppose, but then again I find that a lot of the reasons people have for townreading others in this game have been pretty damn weak. | ||
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On August 11 2014 12:37 Eden1892 wrote: I swear to God I addressed this, I know I was typing a reply to it at some point and I'm gonna be mad if I never actually sent it b/c I was busy irl at the time. This strikes me as a terribly unproductive attempt to push the scum agenda. In a 3-person game, two of them just intermittently check in, don't do anything to solve the game state, look involved or push discussion, but instead just talk loudly about killing each other without actually making an effort to do so, all in the hopes that someone comes through, kills one of them and townreads the other for it? It isn't impossible looking strictly at the "tactics" so to speak - the arguments they were employing, the degree to which they were pushing the lynch - but it doesn't paint a coherent "strategic" picture for a scumteam. There's one guy trying to mislead the whole town in a game where the mafia have to force four mislynches to win? It just doesn't make sense. It's not impossible, but again you were so sure that was a bus and refused to even consider another angle. The confidence you had in them being scum busing from the start was significantly disproportionate to the level of certainty I would expect a townie to have in that argument. And then as it turns out... nope, not busing at all. lol Bussing is both way more simple than what you're describing and way more complicated. The bolded rings fairly true, however. | ||
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Townreads I understand: Eden, JAT, (me? I still think your trap was weak and reading people based on it is meh but whatevs), gobble (sorta---this is one of those things that I never went back and truly thought about when Poofter/GK mentioned it...is there some sort of way with the voting patterns that GD could still be scum? that worries me) Don't understand townread on GK, and Cav I just dunno. | ||
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On August 11 2014 12:45 Eden1892 wrote: I would hope! Give the paragraph I linked a reread, I made this argument initially and I think you missed it? I also brought this up back during n1 when kush was around I didn't miss it but I suppose I didn't think it's what you meant was the strongest of your arguments? I agree there is some merit to it, but what other examples of this do you have? Can you link the N1 post? Have you read my case yet? | ||
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I truly don't think I can ever play a game with an NA early evening time again. | ||
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On August 11 2014 12:49 Eden1892 wrote: Also Wave I read your case and yeah it's better than mine. Sorry I missed it earlier, I think I glazed over reading it last night because I was tired and forgot about it, so my bad. Excuses excuses but it's been a busy 24 hrs for me Sorry, not good enough. Like HF said, analysis. What about it is good? Are there problems with it? | ||
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On August 11 2014 12:50 Holyflare wrote: Jesus people can't read for shit You expect too much honestly. | ||
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