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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On July 16 2014 22:55 marvellosity wrote:
gg wp. Quite town-favoured I think.
edit: 2 blues! V town-favoured then.
Also, I did RNG the setup out of the six possible setups. The numbers on the three setups are definitely slightly mafia favored. If I had to guess, the double blue roles are a bit harsher for town, than the single blue are for mafia, but probably not as extreme as 25 : 75 like you claim. With a random setup like this, you have to average the possibilities for the overall balance, though ideally the parity cop//doctor one should probably be removed, which Palmar ran originally. Even that game came down to a double LYLO, rather than being won by blue actions.
If I had to do the numbers, I'd probably say cop/jailer is about 40:60. I think you're over-estimating the success rate of a parity cop pulling off a meaningful d3 check, though I do admit that I would have preferred a single blue setup. If the cop is not shot, role cop'd, jailed, lynched by day three and town believes the check at a likely lylo position, you're still only dealing with 1 alignment check with a different check vs a dead player, or a same/different check from alive players where town still needs to make a decision at lylo.
On not sure how the hydra factor comes into play. In the past versions of the game, I've heard town say its easier because they have someone to bounce ideas off of and I've heard mafia say its easier because each mafia player doubles their chances of being seen as the "so active he has to be town" player.
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On July 16 2014 23:43 raynpelikoneet wrote:No.. OnceKing. I donät even care what happened since i posted last time in the game but OK was definitely the town MVP. He looked so ridiculously town we could not even TRY to lynch sinani who was scummy as hell.
pls gooby.
Eden got you lynched. On his own. He is like Koshi jr. But he did it on a scum rayn. I only get town rayn lynched.
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On July 16 2014 23:39 marvellosity wrote:
I have no idea why you were trying to pursuade yourself he was town lol.
Was biting my tongue so hard when we were talking in irc.
Cause I thought he was doing these things to spite me.
I was literally talking to HF and saying "man, I really think Rayn is scum...Rayn NEVER misses an EOD if he's town...even at 4am.
But he kept pushing me to lynch poofybunnies
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On July 16 2014 23:46 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2014 22:55 marvellosity wrote:
gg wp. Quite town-favoured I think.
edit: 2 blues! V town-favoured then. Also, I did RNG the setup out of the six possible setups. The numbers on the three setups are definitely slightly mafia favored. If I had to guess, the double blue roles are a bit harsher for town, than the single blue are for mafia, but no where near 25 : 75 like you claim. With a random setup like this, you have to average the possibilities for the overall balance, though ideally the parity cop//doctor one should probably be removed, which Palmar ran originally. Even that game came down to a double LYLO, rather than being won by blue actions. If I had to do the numbers, I'd probably say cop/jailer is about 40:60. I think you're over-estimating the success rate of a parity cop pulling off a meaningful d3 check, though I do admit that I would have preferred a single blue setup. If the cop is not shot, role cop'd, jailed, lynched by day three and town believes the check at a likely lylo position, you're still only dealing with 1 alignment check with a different check vs a dead player, or a same/different check from alive players where town still needs to make a decision at lylo. On not sure how the hydra factor comes into play. In the past versions of the game, I've heard town say its easier because they have someone to bounce ideas off of and I've heard mafia say its easier because each mafia player doubles their chances of being seen as the "so active he has to be town" player.
It's all about who gets the roles.
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On July 16 2014 23:47 Koshi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2014 23:43 raynpelikoneet wrote:On July 16 2014 23:42 Koshi wrote:
Eden still town mvp No.. OnceKing. I donät even care what happened since i posted last time in the game but OK was definitely the town MVP. He looked so ridiculously town we could not even TRY to lynch sinani who was scummy as hell. pls gooby. Eden got you lynched. On his own. He is like Koshi jr. But he did it on a scum rayn. I only get town rayn lynched.
Eden was infinitely more town than OK
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All in all tho it's obvious my save game needs work since I missed w/25% random chance to save n1... A normal doc would dream of such odds. Lol
What do y'all consider optimal save strat? My reason for top town read is I assume I won't outguess the mafia and try to create best floor which is "ensure top town read safe"
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Eden1892 the problem is town lynched town on D1. Noone really looks "better" than anyone else based on the votes and the game has been going on for not so long. Your townread might very well be scum. Hell even if they led a lynch on scum they would probably not be hit because possible protective role(s).
The best play definitely is to protect the "biggest asset" to the town. I told Slendy on phne at some point to kill Palmar because marv get's docced 100%. I didn't even realize we had 2kp and my first reaction on seeing the daypost was "HAHA WHO THE FUCK SHOT ON THOSE GUYS?!?!?".
Yeah, one of my worst scumgames. 
Sorry team <3
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
On July 16 2014 23:49 Eden1892 wrote:
All in all tho it's obvious my save game needs work since I missed w/25% random chance to save n1... A normal doc would dream of such odds. Lol
What do y'all consider optimal save strat? My reason for top town read is I assume I won't outguess the mafia and try to create best floor which is "ensure top town read safe"
Protect your assets, not the dude likeliest to be town (unless he is also clearly an asset)
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Also minigames are definitely townfavoured. Really really really town favoured, if you need three mislynches.
There is just no room to hide for mafia in case at least SOME townies play really well.
Also also hydra game makes it town favoured x2.
And i always roll fucking mafia in hydra games. Annoying shit, next time there is a hydra game i am confirmed mafia and you can just lynch me.
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
On July 16 2014 23:46 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2014 22:55 marvellosity wrote:
gg wp. Quite town-favoured I think.
edit: 2 blues! V town-favoured then. Also, I did RNG the setup out of the six possible setups. The numbers on the three setups are definitely slightly mafia favored. If I had to guess, the double blue roles are a bit harsher for town, than the single blue are for mafia, but probably not as extreme as 25 : 75 like you claim. With a random setup like this, you have to average the possibilities for the overall balance, though ideally the parity cop//doctor one should probably be removed, which Palmar ran originally. Even that game came down to a double LYLO, rather than being won by blue actions.
Towns are superior to how they used to be.
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O
I guess we disagree on who was best assets then. I felt OK was best asset too tbh. Maybe I misread/got tunnel but I felt like we were by far doing the most work itt
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I was in a mini in which scum needed 4 misslynches if the selfprotecting doc got a safe off.
I was scum so we won but that was fucking hard.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On July 16 2014 23:43 Eden1892 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2014 23:30 marvellosity wrote:On July 16 2014 23:29 Eden1892 wrote:On July 16 2014 23:26 marvellosity wrote:On July 16 2014 23:26 Eden1892 wrote:
N1 jail was protect top town read
Idgaf about meta Onceking had approximately 0% chance of being hit. Shrug Not knowing %s I went for max payout which = protect best town read The Plays You can work out likelihoods though. That's what makes a good blue. You made a protect which had very little chance of making a save. You can carry on thinking that protecting your top townread is the correct play though. With no meta knowledge to speak of? Not really, even if I just tried to random pick a vet, I saw all the vets snoozing thru d1 and saved a guy I felt sure was town instead
I'm not trying to discredit OK's clear town play on D1, but for a bit of perspective, marv/Palmar have been killed n1 a combined 25 times, where as the sinani/OK haven't been hit once, as far as I can tell. When certain vets like that are not clear town, they are actually more likely to take a hit because the mafia team can be more confident that their shots will go through.
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
On July 16 2014 23:53 Eden1892 wrote:
O
I guess we disagree on who was best assets then. I felt OK was best asset too tbh. Maybe I misread/got tunnel but I felt like we were by far doing the most work itt
doing most work != best asset.
You both lynched a town with utter certainty. That isn't a slight on your play or anything, shit happens. But you'd both been proven to be demonstrably very wrong.
I mean I got NK after my final reads on N1 which were that all townies were town and both mafia were in a pool of 3.
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On July 16 2014 23:47 Koshi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2014 23:43 raynpelikoneet wrote:On July 16 2014 23:42 Koshi wrote:
Eden still town mvp No.. OnceKing. I donät even care what happened since i posted last time in the game but OK was definitely the town MVP. He looked so ridiculously town we could not even TRY to lynch sinani who was scummy as hell. pls gooby. Eden got you lynched. On his own. He is like Koshi jr. But he did it on a scum rayn. I only get town rayn lynched.
I think I should stop making big posts. This clearly shows my cases were completely ignored.
Btw, what is smashboard?
And kita, can you give me tips on the way I've played this game?
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On July 16 2014 23:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:Also minigames are definitely townfavoured. Really really really town favoured, if you need three mislynches.There is just no room to hide for mafia in case at least SOME townies play really well. Also also hydra game makes it town favoured x2. And i always roll fucking mafia in hydra games. Annoying shit, next time there is a hydra game i am confirmed mafia and you can just lynch me.
On June 30 2014 09:23 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
10v3 is standard Koshi, 4 mislynches vs 3 correct lynches is pretty normal in minis.
^ And we lost as scum in a game with this guy.
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ah wait these are only 2 scummers. STILL.
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ignore everything I said.
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
On July 16 2014 23:53 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2014 23:43 Eden1892 wrote:On July 16 2014 23:30 marvellosity wrote:On July 16 2014 23:29 Eden1892 wrote:On July 16 2014 23:26 marvellosity wrote:On July 16 2014 23:26 Eden1892 wrote:
N1 jail was protect top town read
Idgaf about meta Onceking had approximately 0% chance of being hit. Shrug Not knowing %s I went for max payout which = protect best town read The Plays You can work out likelihoods though. That's what makes a good blue. You made a protect which had very little chance of making a save. You can carry on thinking that protecting your top townread is the correct play though. With no meta knowledge to speak of? Not really, even if I just tried to random pick a vet, I saw all the vets snoozing thru d1 and saved a guy I felt sure was town instead I'm not trying to discredit OK's clear town play on D1, but for a bit of perspective, marv/Palmar have been killed n1 a combined 25 times, where as the sinani/OK haven't been hit once, as far as I can tell. When certain vets like that are not clear town, they are actually more likely to take a hit because the mafia team can be more confident that their shots will go through.
lol!
I love your stats kita.
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Koshi there was never a case on me.
We got lynched because we were afk...
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EPT
