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exo_ (4): toadesstern, billmurray, forumite, hiropro

With 11 players alive it takes 6.0 votes to lynch.

Last update 21:55 GMT (+00:00)

slOosh

3291 Posts

July 17 2014 22:06 GMT

#3108

Exo -> Vivax -> HiroPro ezpz

##Vote: ExO

This makes 1 minus hammer

slOosh

3291 Posts

July 17 2014 22:12 GMT

#3109

Uhh next one is hammer is what I meant.

It's been long day.

Toadesstern

Germany16350 Posts

July 17 2014 22:31 GMT

#3110

Okay here's what I'm thinking about this check and my question from above:

On July 18 2014 06:51 Toadesstern wrote:
##vote Exo

So why exactly isn't mafia shooting you? Just as an aside

Why didn't they shoot BM and I've come up with 3 scenarios:

BM is mafia. Highly unlikely at this point as he gave us a lynch that would otherwise not have happened but I'm including it for the sake of keeping this complete. Very unlike but possible
They have a framer that not only makes people appear red/green/whatever but makes people appear like the visited someone or didn't visit someone. With there not being any normal cops (or so it seems) but instead just trackers and watchers that'd be a necessary change to the role and has been done before. That being said and it certainly being possible I don't think the check on ExO_ is all that likely to be wrong even if it were to be the case. I simply don't see mafia not using it on Vivax yesterday. Either way Vivax would be town and you want to make him look like mafia or he's mafia and you want to make him look like he's not.
And finally: Mafia just didn't think he'd check ExO and got multiple people to choose from to carry out the Nightkills. That means that for example mafia thought BM would target Vivax and thus choose to not use Vivax as a NK deliverer and were hoping to get a "Vivax didn't visit anyone yesterday" out of BM while using the less likely to be checked ones to actually deliver the kill

Anything I'm missing? I thought the third one makes it a little more likely for Vivax to be mafia at first but really the same is still true if Vivax is town. Either way I'd say #3 is the most likely scenario right now and think mafia did play high risk high reward here because again, they didn't and never looked like they had a say in anything starting from d1.
#2 sounds possible as well but I think that'd be a bit overkill with their already flipped roles being OP-VIG and Roleblocker. Not sure if a change to a GF that doesn't appear to visit someone while killing people has ever been done on this site so I left that one out but it would fall under the 2nd point as well.

Thoughts? What do you guys think does that make of Vivax? Because like I mentioned I'd say mafia assumed him to be checked last night.

Toadesstern

Germany16350 Posts

July 17 2014 22:35 GMT

#3111

actually I revise some of what I said about #3 but I'll keep it to me for now. Wouldn't mind hearing other people thoughts about why they apprently aren't scared of BM at all.

Other options would be something like they're afraid of us still having a medic but with that guy already flipped it seems pretty unlikely. Should have included that one for completions sake as well though.

HiroPro

United States2624 Posts

July 17 2014 22:39 GMT

#3112

All of these are possible but frankly I think it's more likely that mafia simply thought BM wasn't going to put in any effort towards pushing lynches outside of his check. Koshi had a similar role of his own, which is almost as strong at this point, since anyone with useful roles has claimed at this point.

ExO had nothing to indicate that he was town other than a throw-away vote on obishinobi. There's no reason to keep him alive when he both isn't posting and has a track result on him.

layabout

United Kingdom2600 Posts

July 17 2014 22:40 GMT

#3113

shall i end the day?

HiroPro

United States2624 Posts

July 17 2014 22:40 GMT

#3114

sure, go ahead.

slOosh

3291 Posts

July 17 2014 22:41 GMT

#3115

I voted wrong so I'm gonna fix it soon.

Exo who has been totally absent from the game is found visiting the dude who died. Let's keep it simple. He is probably the mafia who was sent.

slOosh

3291 Posts

July 17 2014 22:42 GMT

#3116

Fixed, next vote hammers

Toadesstern

Germany16350 Posts

July 17 2014 22:43 GMT

#3117

On July 18 2014 07:41 slOosh wrote:
I voted wrong so I'm gonna fix it soon.

Exo who has been totally absent from the game is found visiting the dude who died. Let's keep it simple. He is probably the mafia who was sent.

if that was directed at me, yeah but that wasn't my point.

I was asking about what that makes of Vivax. ExO_ is as much a clear cut insta vote as you'll ever get.

slOosh

3291 Posts

July 17 2014 22:46 GMT

#3118

Oh. From a tactical standpoint, I would send Exo regardless of what kind of team I was in. If he caughts caught, big woop he is eventually gonna get lurker lynched or something. Also you don't want your active members to get caught.

On July 17 2014 18:05 yamato77 wrote:
I'm telling you that Vivax is one.

Vivax argued against lynching Exo, so he is probably another.

You, Sloosh, layabout, Toad, BM, Slam, and ritoky are probably not mafia.

Batsnacks/Forumite/Hiro are the only other ones even worth looking at. Hiro is easily the worst looking one of the three.

I think that's one thing you can conclude if you want to use associations.

slOosh

3291 Posts

July 17 2014 22:50 GMT

#3119

And layabout I think we are good with a hammer right now.

Th e people who haven't yet done so should respond to yamato's request for a spectrum of reads.

layabout

United Kingdom2600 Posts

July 17 2014 22:53 GMT

#3120

now doesn't the spectrum of reads essentially tell mafia who they can kill to survive and who they can leave to vote with?