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On July 02 2014 06:32 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2014 06:24 ExO_ wrote:On July 02 2014 06:16 Vivax wrote:
I think tomorrow I'll be pushing for either Cava or Poofter who were both on Koshi's list you are scum. koshi was a vanilla town. VT reads can be wrong. as mafia you're trying to look good by pushing for people on a confirmed towns list. But there is stroner evidence than simple reads, and thats reads from votes. D1 reads shouldn't trump everything we've seen since then I am currently trying to figure out where your discussion focus lies in this game. You posted this list earlier: Show nested quote +1) ObviousOne
4) kushm4sta
5) Tehpoofter
9) Rainbows
11) Vivax
12) IAmRobik
13) HaruRH
*(in the course of investigating this list, I realized an incentive: mderg could be switching as mafia to try to kill the claimed cop, though I think it's highly unlikely.) Over the course of the lynch decision taking place however you strongly focused on either pushing me and haru or defending mderg and what I find lacking in here is your interest into the other guys you didn't feel like clearing yet. Simply put, you lack a natural portion of doubt and what I also find lacking is analysis of these people. And that it's lacking is concerning especially now. If I take me and Robik as example, we didn't only get stuck on either haru or mderg but also considered lynching Cava (in Robik's case) or changing the read on Haru (in my case). I am willing to consider the possibility that you are town, but first you have to explain to me how you read people in the list you haven't adressed or analyzed yet.
you mistakenly assume I didn't analyze everybody. I read or at least scimmed through every sinle persons filter in that list. But I'm not going to post what can I find that suggests innocence, because I believe its ineffective. Mafia can look innocent all the time. Instead I look for evidence of scum, and by far the strongest evidence is on you and harurh. And by the looks if it, theres gonna be even more today when I get home and can analyze.
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Thoguht of a name for what I think robik is. He's "incompetown" lol
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sinani206 (6): IAmRobik, Tehpoofter, Cavalinho, HaruRH, mderg, ExO_
These are the 6 people that voted for Sinani. If Cav is mafia (I really don't think so) then all of your mafia should be found in this list, because losing 1/3 mafia on day 1 would be horrible for mafia. Considering Cav is on the list, and mderg is gone, that leaves Robik/Poofter/Harurh. 2 out of those 3 would be mafia.
This is ONLY in the case that cav is mafia. I don't believe he is. But if he is, then cav +2 out of Robik/poof/Harurh are mafia.
Let's see what happens night 2, but tomorrow lynch vivax. If I die in the night, remember I was heavily pushing Vivax and Harurh, and they wanted that voice silenced. I really hope we can pull it together town
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On July 02 2014 09:54 kushm4sta wrote:
hopefully they kill vivax so i can redeem myself this game by figuring out the scumteam
I've opened the door for you, but only you can walk through it 
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On July 02 2014 10:36 Rainbows wrote:
By PoE, if my gut towns are town, then the scumteam lies in 3 of:
Cav
ExO
TP
OO
Two "ghosts", one genuinely scummy guy, and the scummy cop claim. Not bad if you ask me.
We lynch into that tomorrow, imo. Especially if I wind up dead tonight, you listen to this list. You lynch one of those guys. This is where we begin towns comeback, and as mafia are flipped then we re-evaluate our town reads if they don't die at night.
You are wrong, and I can nearly prove it
sinani206 (6): IAmRobik, Tehpoofter, Cavalinho, HaruRH, mderg, ExO_
If cav is mafia then 3 mafia need to be in this list. Otherwise mafia is really dumb for almost letting cav die. I don't think mafia is willing to take such a big risk on day 1. It'd make no sense to do so. That means 3 mafia are in this list here.
the only people that fit your criteria and this list are me, TP, OO. I am not mafia. That means no matter what, your read is wrong.
I'm going to read the rest of your post in more detail now, but you are wrong with the scum reads, period.
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*3 people that fit the list are me, TP, and cav. I said OO, meant cav
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Rainbows, my problem with your entire analysis is it revolves around one thing. Cav being mafia. If Cav isn't mafia, it falls apart. Your reasoning for HaruRH being town falls apart. You reasoning for me being scum falls apart. Poofter scummy reasoning falls apart.
So I beg you to reconsider. Let's consider the scenarios and what it'll mean for this night (i'm working this out as I type it)
1. Cav is mafia -- Mafia will not kill him tonight, presumably lives to see Day 3
2. Cav isn't mafia -- Mafia leave him alive, and have a fake cop claim tomorrow. Try to push the vote onto Cav, using the information they have as mafia to bolster their fake cop.
3. Cav is mafia -- Mafia kill Cav. If Cav is the cop, mafia may kill him tonight for fear that he can point out mafia tomorrow.
Considering the scenarios, if Cav is mafia we know exactly who to lynch based on day 1 votes (there is an extremely unlikely scenario in which Cav is mafia, and he nearly died night 1 because of mafia members voting their own guy. I think this is so unlikely that it's not worth considering.) This would mean Robik, Poofter, and HaruRH are the only remaining possibilities for mafia, and we can work that out.
The question is, if Cav isn't mafia where does that leave us? I think it leaves us with a clear target in Vivax.
Read Vivax's filter. He is constantly asking others to answer questions for him. He is trying to follow in Koshi's footsteps, because we all know Koshi was town right? Except Koshi was VT, his read might've been wrong. But Vivax wants the association with the townie. Notice how he leaves out trying to push Palmar non-stop, then BAM look who died night 1? The big bad wolf (according to Vivax), Palmar the townie (who I might add pushed HaruRH).
+ Show Spoiler +On July 02 2014 06:32 Vivax wrote:
I am willing to consider the possibility that you are town, but first you have to explain to me how you read people in the list you haven't adressed or analyzed yet. On July 02 2014 05:43 Vivax wrote:
Mderg if you are indeed town, then pin a guy who you think is trying to profit from the situation by defending you, for example. On July 02 2014 06:09 Vivax wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On July 02 2014 06:08 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2014 06:04 Vivax wrote:On July 02 2014 06:02 ExO_ wrote:On July 02 2014 05:59 Vivax wrote:
Besides mderg, your story is this:
You say Cav shouldn't be lynched cause claim. You vote sinani, Exo votes sinani, you see Exo voting him and try to switch to Cava.
This just doesn't make sense to an outsider and if you're town I hope you understand why. it makes perfect sense as town. a town on day 1 has zero information, and if you think your reads as town are 100% perfect on day 1 you are either stupid or overconfident. He saw last second votes and panicked. mafia wouldnt panic Why should he have panicked if you voted for the guy he thought should be lynched?????? Your confidence into him being town is what's scummy. His panic was because I voted last second with hardly an explanation. And somebody else did too. it looked like a last second mafia votes. thats why the switch at the last second. there was no time to wait for explanations. And now we know it was totally a last second mafia vote son *(<------ Look how that turned out) *my own addition to the quote On July 02 2014 06:06 Vivax wrote:rainbows? lolno.OO looks too chill with all his jokes imo. Poofter, Exo and Cava or something like that imo. On July 02 2014 02:08 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2014 00:57 IAmRobik wrote:On July 02 2014 00:46 Vivax wrote:
Robik.
Are you aware of the fact mderg called you mafia or at least probably mafia. Yes. I called him out on it. I don't know if having a wrong read 100% makes you mafia, but his inconsistencies about the "there's a reason to townread robik" "i never townread robik" "other people are townreading robik" thing is disconcerting I'm just wondering what's stopping you to call him mafia and try to get him lynched like you tried to lynch sinani (aggressively) after you spammed him a liar. On the other hand I don't see many reasons for why your vote is on haru. Why are you voting haru and not mderg? On July 01 2014 21:27 Vivax wrote:OO what about page 4 and 5 of Haru's filter is there that is supposed to make him scum? Can we lynch one of Cav, mderg, Exo or TP? *(<-------2 Townies in this list) Show nested quote +On July 01 2014 13:14 Cavalinho wrote:
Actually, Vivax, I want you to answer a couple questions the next time you're back in the thread:
1) Why do you keep thinking I'm scum?
2) Why do you keep characterizing my play?
3) Why is it that you have reasons not to vote me in your filter, in yet you vote me anyway? On July 01 2014 22:48 Vivax wrote:
Tell me how you feel about this Haru wagon.
Do you notice anything? Please tell me I'm not the only one that sees this for what it is, scum play.
And the more I go over the day 2 votes, the more I'm convinced you might be scum with him. he was the 4th (tying) vote on HaruRH, and you were the 6th. Neither of you ever voted HaruRH once.
But I'm not 100% yet. I need to read more.
I started off trying to analyze the possible scenarios, and maybe the possibility of having vigi shoot cav, so the town could unite instead of bickering over cav tomorrow, despite the risks this would inherently carry. But the more I read the more I'm convinced
You're Scum team is HaruRH, Vivax, and either Rainbows or Robik or poofter. And I'm leaning rainbows right now
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*EBWOP
*your scum team is
I'm sure there are other typos, and I kinda started typing really fast at the end there. please excuse them
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*2nd EBWOP]
But I'm not 100% convinced you are the 3rd mafia yet
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I again implore Vigi, shoot Vivax. Or if you have doubts, shoot HaruRH.
We do have a town Vigi right? It's hard for me to imagine scum having a kill and a scum vigi.
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Also if we have a medic, please consider protecting me tonight. If I'm right I don't think Vivax and co will want me around tomorrow
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I think mafia has a high chance of leaving Cav in and trying to direct votes towards him, claiming he fake claimed cop and is mafia. There isn't going to be a way via roles of verifying cav, and they could try to just ride momentum to kill him. If they lynch town tomorrow its over.
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As for why you should protect me, I think if I'm right about mafia, they'll try to lynch me. Without my voice here it's likely just going to end weakly on a town lynch, with mafia cruising to victory
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On July 02 2014 13:23 Tehpoofter wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2014 13:22 ExO_ wrote:
As for why you should protect me, I think if I'm right about mafia, they'll try to lynch me. Without my voice here it's likely just going to end weakly on a town lynch, with mafia cruising to victory so they can't lynch you if they kill you in the night.
I'm in the process of responding to rainbows right now, but quickly:
I used lynch interchangeably with kill. They'll try to kill me in the night, and try to lynch cav the next day.
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On July 02 2014 13:21 Rainbows wrote:
ExO my reasoning for Haru being town has nothing to do with cav being mafia. You didnt read it.
also i literally said cavs alignment had nothing to do with my read on you and poofter... its the reaction to his claim regardless if its true or false. You really did not read my post or cant comprehend it.
why am i awake rn
I did read it. Let's begin shall we:
On July 02 2014 10:36 Rainbows wrote:
HaruRH
The lynch yesterday leaves me worried. I thought most of or all of the scumteam was on him. So I dnu, meta would suggest that he is town. Cav / poof both on him. Cav / poof / exo scumteam? Maybe OO. I haven't done any really hard analysis of Haru, which is terrible of me because he was a main wagon yesterday. My gut says town, scum don't like saying "I don't do reads on D1, fek off son" to a townie. That just creates pressure and puts the spotlight on. There are a few things I don't like about his filter, but for now, don't lynch tomorrow imo.
HaruRH (4): ObviousOne, mderg, Cavalinho, ExO_
1 of these is confirmed town. And if you don't want to commit to cav being mafia, then that means you are saying Both OO and I are mafia. Doesn't that sound a bit odd though? Haruh was well in the lead, then slowly but surely momentum built up on mderg. We know mderg was a townie. But somehow you think every townie in the game, without help from mafia (because at least 2 mafia are voting here right?) started a train on another townie? Even more unlikely is the idea that all 3 mafia manage to vote on one townie, while the town trains on another townie.
But as unlikely as it seems, let's consider if cav is town (Which btw is all I've ever said. I'm not sure if he's cop or not, but I believe he's town. Which makes it likely he's cop, b/c why would a town lie about having a good role like that? [Except god damn ritoky in Order, but I digrees]. If he's now cop, isn't it odd that you'd have a big problem with people believing he's the cop? Yet the only other person you offered as potential scum, tehpoofter, is somebody you have pegged as believing him.
You either think cav is scum, in which case the votes on HaruRH make no sense, or you think he's cop and think the people that believe him are scum precisely for believe him. It doesn't add up.
What's interesting though, who are the only 2 people you say "dont lynch tomorrow?"
Take a wild guess ladies and gents:
On July 02 2014 10:36 Rainbows wrote:
Do NOT lynch Vivax if he is still alive.
HaruRH
don't lynch tomorrow imo.
I think scum team is HaruRH, Vivax, and rainbow
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EBWOP: Precisely for believing him
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On July 02 2014 13:43 Tehpoofter wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2014 13:39 ExO_ wrote:On July 02 2014 13:23 Tehpoofter wrote:On July 02 2014 13:22 ExO_ wrote:
As for why you should protect me, I think if I'm right about mafia, they'll try to lynch me. Without my voice here it's likely just going to end weakly on a town lynch, with mafia cruising to victory so they can't lynch you if they kill you in the night. I'm in the process of responding to rainbows right now, but quickly: I used lynch interchangeably with kill. They'll try to kill me in the night, and try to lynch cav the next day. kk sounds good. I'm behind btw. IF you were going to summarize the last 5 pages for me how would you do it?
I find it odd that you're just willing to back me if you haven't read the last 5 pages. But:
During lynch time, Vivax was pushing mderg pretty hard. He kept saying his last minute vote switching on day 1 didn't make sense (mderg failed his vote switch btw. At the last second he tried to vote cav but it was too late). But I argued it made perfect sense, because of the last second vote on Sinani from myself (and all of the last second voting in general), it looked like a panic town trying to avoid mafia saving.
Vivax repeatedly tried to push that point away tho, and continued to try to push that mderg had to be mafia for his strange voting at the end of the day.
I pegged Vivax earlier in the day, as well as HaruRH, and Vivax was a staunch proponent of lynching mderg. Well then mderg flips town.
Since then both Vivax, as well as rainbows have both either said or implied the people who defended mderg are mafia, because they'd know he's town. Look at my post above, it's ridiculous to think that.
I don't want to go rehash my entire first scum read on Vivax and HaruRH, but basically I already thought both were mafia. Both tried pushing cav, and then were on the mderg wagon. Rainbows and Vivax never voted HaruRH once. All of these people are then trying to constantly misdirect people back on to the guys that defended mderg.
I think Vivax basically saved his teammate HaruRH, with rainbows in tow, and now they're going to try to redirect the focus on to the townies who tried to save mderg. I also think they're very likely to try to push cav tomorrow. The only reason they wouldn't is because I've said they would try to do this several times since the end of day 1.
I'm not very good at summaries, but I think that's an okay account. Anything else you want to know about in particular?
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if cav is mafia and nearly died day 1 ill be blown away, itll have been so incredibly sloppy
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the amount of time its taking to post the results, combined with the fact that the mod is going out of his way to mention that night actions only have x:xx time to be changed makes me think either the game is over, or somebody changed their night action at least once
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robik getting that last nonsense fake claim in
##Vivax
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EPT
