EPTWhy do people think he's town? In this post I will be looking closely at some of his more in depth content and point out why it's not townie.
+ Show Spoiler +
On June 27 2014 23:35 Rainbows wrote:
Think a good heuristic for this game is to learn from TL Order which went spectacularly horribly. In terms of Kush, Kush is now confirmed mafia in Order and I've spent a decent time reading his filter in that game. If kush is mafia, he will hopefully show some of the same signals.
Koshi looks like mafia so far.
Vivax asks him for his reads on these three players, Koshi basically responds "we have to watch them". Vivax asked specifcally about the claiming country stuff robik did but doesn't comment on it just said there hasn't been any good things robik has said. I feel like town would come up with some conclusion based on either robik or kush at least.
Then Palmar makes case on vivax. koshi thoughts on case inc
Doesn't come to a conclusion on vivax's actions. Does consider palmar 'not scummy', but only not scummy 'not for this case'. feels like wiggle room to call Palmar mafia in the future if it benefits him.
But this is more interesting imo:
I'm confused. AT one point the case on Vivax is "not bad, not bad at all"
8 minutes later it is "Plammer is bad, or mafia". Seems like a drastic change of opinion. When vivax asks about Koshi's opinion on the case (quoted earlier), Koshi replies that the arguments are good 'because they are true'.
What does Koshi think? I can't tell. A lot of scatter opinions on the same topic of Palmar case. Reads scummy because, as town, he would know exactly how he thinks. As scum he tailors his opinion to the town. He also feels like he is buddying up to vivax in a lot of his posts which i only do if I have a hard townread on that person, but Koshi doesn't appear to have a super townread on Vivax, so why the buddying?
If that looks confusing I just woke up. Main point is that Koshi changes his opinion on Palmar case, goes from --> Case is not bad --> Palmar is bad, or mafia --> arguments are good because true, it wasn't a bad case. He also sidesteps a read on robik and buddys vivax.
##Vote: Koshi
evul koshi maf
Think a good heuristic for this game is to learn from TL Order which went spectacularly horribly. In terms of Kush, Kush is now confirmed mafia in Order and I've spent a decent time reading his filter in that game. If kush is mafia, he will hopefully show some of the same signals.
Koshi looks like mafia so far.
Vivax asks him for his reads on these three players, Koshi basically responds "we have to watch them". Vivax asked specifcally about the claiming country stuff robik did but doesn't comment on it just said there hasn't been any good things robik has said. I feel like town would come up with some conclusion based on either robik or kush at least.
Then Palmar makes case on vivax. koshi thoughts on case inc
Doesn't come to a conclusion on vivax's actions. Does consider palmar 'not scummy', but only not scummy 'not for this case'. feels like wiggle room to call Palmar mafia in the future if it benefits him.
But this is more interesting imo:
I'm confused. AT one point the case on Vivax is "not bad, not bad at all"
8 minutes later it is "Plammer is bad, or mafia". Seems like a drastic change of opinion. When vivax asks about Koshi's opinion on the case (quoted earlier), Koshi replies that the arguments are good 'because they are true'.
What does Koshi think? I can't tell. A lot of scatter opinions on the same topic of Palmar case. Reads scummy because, as town, he would know exactly how he thinks. As scum he tailors his opinion to the town. He also feels like he is buddying up to vivax in a lot of his posts which i only do if I have a hard townread on that person, but Koshi doesn't appear to have a super townread on Vivax, so why the buddying?
If that looks confusing I just woke up. Main point is that Koshi changes his opinion on Palmar case, goes from --> Case is not bad --> Palmar is bad, or mafia --> arguments are good because true, it wasn't a bad case. He also sidesteps a read on robik and buddys vivax.
##Vote: Koshi
evul koshi maf
Huge summary post mostly. Summaries are scummy, especially because there's no point to it. At the end he makes a case against koshi. Let's magnify:
I'm confused. AT one point the case on Vivax is "not bad, not bad at all"
8 minutes later it is "Plammer is bad, or mafia". Seems like a drastic change of opinion. When vivax asks about Koshi's opinion on the case (quoted earlier), Koshi replies that the arguments are good 'because they are true'.
What does Koshi think? I can't tell. A lot of scatter opinions on the same topic of Palmar case. Reads scummy because, as town, he would know exactly how he thinks. As scum he tailors his opinion to the town. He also feels like he is buddying up to vivax in a lot of his posts which i only do if I have a hard townread on that person, but Koshi doesn't appear to have a super townread on Vivax, so why the buddying?
If that looks confusing I just woke up. Main point is that Koshi changes his opinion on Palmar case, goes from --> Case is not bad --> Palmar is bad, or mafia --> arguments are good because true, it wasn't a bad case. He also sidesteps a read on robik and buddys vivax.
##Vote: Koshi
evul koshi maf
8 minutes later it is "Plammer is bad, or mafia". Seems like a drastic change of opinion. When vivax asks about Koshi's opinion on the case (quoted earlier), Koshi replies that the arguments are good 'because they are true'.
What does Koshi think? I can't tell. A lot of scatter opinions on the same topic of Palmar case. Reads scummy because, as town, he would know exactly how he thinks. As scum he tailors his opinion to the town. He also feels like he is buddying up to vivax in a lot of his posts which i only do if I have a hard townread on that person, but Koshi doesn't appear to have a super townread on Vivax, so why the buddying?
If that looks confusing I just woke up. Main point is that Koshi changes his opinion on Palmar case, goes from --> Case is not bad --> Palmar is bad, or mafia --> arguments are good because true, it wasn't a bad case. He also sidesteps a read on robik and buddys vivax.
##Vote: Koshi
evul koshi maf
So rainbows is voting koshi because he is changing his mind a lot d1. It's a very superficial reason for thinking someone is scum. I expect townrainbows to realize that on d1 fluidity in reads is normal for townkoshi.
Later rainbows says koshi is also scummy for buddying vivax, despite koshi not having a townread on him.
On June 27 2014 23:47 Rainbows wrote:
Can you explain why you buddy vivax I don't understand it because I only buddy people I have a strong townread on but it appears you don't have a townread on vivax?
Also explain your read on the palmar case on vivax. At first you say it is not bad, then say palmar is bad / mafia, then say it is good and true, then say it is not a bad case again.
Can you explain why you buddy vivax I don't understand it because I only buddy people I have a strong townread on but it appears you don't have a townread on vivax?
Also explain your read on the palmar case on vivax. At first you say it is not bad, then say palmar is bad / mafia, then say it is good and true, then say it is not a bad case again.
He is taking a mafia buzzword, applying it to koshi without any consideration of koshi's meta, and saying that it makes him scummy.
+ Show Spoiler +
On June 28 2014 22:27 Rainbows wrote:
Right now I'd lynch into OO, Haru, Cav. Mderg and Exo haven't done anything but whatever, if I lynch based on that again and they flip town im going to go straight to the nearest ravine and throw myself into it (I chickened out in Order, but I will really do it this time I promise)
OO's reaction to Koshi pressure was terrible, he hasn't given any other reads than his vote on Koshi, which was straight omgus. Claims that he's out trying to find his "town partners" but I haven't seen evidence of it so far. Scum because gives a lazy read on me for useless posts at the beginning of the game, promotes discussion (apparently) but doesn't seem to partake in it himself.
Haru also been fairly active but has refused to give decent reads on D1. He claims his meta is "I don't normally give reads D1", which is bullshit. His Koshi vote was very bad. First two reasons didn't make Koshi mafia, and third one was meh. Only bad feeling I have about lynching him is that I thought he was scum in order, but for different reasons and he flipped town. Don't want a repeat of that, if town might have to go ravine.
Cav wants to lynch between vivax and Palmar but completely forgot that he wanted to do that. Gave bad reads on both then didn't do anything. Came into the thread and 3 people instantly called him anti-town afterwards--a scum that's that bad? Maybe.
Still wary of Koshi. Responded well to questions in a townie way but lingering feels in my mind about evul koshi scum. But not lynch today.
Also wary of Palmar. Case on Vivax was OK for early game, but hasn't done anything to prove himself recently. Didn't like that he was building himself up as self-proclaimed super townie during the pressure on Vivax, seemed scummy that one would feel the need to do so. Votes Koshi for no reason and then disappears, no like Palmar atm.
Not sure how I feel about Kush. Hasn't done the signs I thought he would if he were scum. D2 learn more.
Most others leaning town for now.
Right now I'd lynch into OO, Haru, Cav. Mderg and Exo haven't done anything but whatever, if I lynch based on that again and they flip town im going to go straight to the nearest ravine and throw myself into it (I chickened out in Order, but I will really do it this time I promise)
OO's reaction to Koshi pressure was terrible, he hasn't given any other reads than his vote on Koshi, which was straight omgus. Claims that he's out trying to find his "town partners" but I haven't seen evidence of it so far. Scum because gives a lazy read on me for useless posts at the beginning of the game, promotes discussion (apparently) but doesn't seem to partake in it himself.
Haru also been fairly active but has refused to give decent reads on D1. He claims his meta is "I don't normally give reads D1", which is bullshit. His Koshi vote was very bad. First two reasons didn't make Koshi mafia, and third one was meh. Only bad feeling I have about lynching him is that I thought he was scum in order, but for different reasons and he flipped town. Don't want a repeat of that, if town might have to go ravine.
Cav wants to lynch between vivax and Palmar but completely forgot that he wanted to do that. Gave bad reads on both then didn't do anything. Came into the thread and 3 people instantly called him anti-town afterwards--a scum that's that bad? Maybe.
Still wary of Koshi. Responded well to questions in a townie way but lingering feels in my mind about evul koshi scum. But not lynch today.
Also wary of Palmar. Case on Vivax was OK for early game, but hasn't done anything to prove himself recently. Didn't like that he was building himself up as self-proclaimed super townie during the pressure on Vivax, seemed scummy that one would feel the need to do so. Votes Koshi for no reason and then disappears, no like Palmar atm.
Not sure how I feel about Kush. Hasn't done the signs I thought he would if he were scum. D2 learn more.
Most others leaning town for now.
In this post he lists all of the low hanging fruit and gives shite reasoning behind all of them. Except one..
Cav wants to lynch between vivax and Palmar but completely forgot that he wanted to do that. Gave bad reads on both then didn't do anything. Came into the thread and 3 people instantly called him anti-town afterwards--a scum that's that bad? Maybe.
So why does the suspicion with the best reasons only get a "maybe"? This is what a scum connection looks like.
Later thread sentiment turns to lynching cav. Rainbows votes cav. He is the 5th person to join the wagon.
+ Show Spoiler +
On June 29 2014 22:44 Rainbows wrote:
Working so much today, so I better dump this while I can.
The Cav Situation
If Cav is actually the cop, then his role is useless to us. Mafia almost always have a roleblocker, and any checks from him will certainly be wasted if he survives onward. I think he's a good vigilante shot for this reason. Votes were tied 6-6, if Cav is mafia the game may be solved right there based on vote analysis. If he flips Cop, then we know the wagon was both on town. I'd rather get him vigg'd and out of the way right here and now. And a lynch is not a terrible option either unless he considerably steps up his game and is shining townie out of his butthole.
Haru and Tehpoofter
I know they're playing in a different game right now. For Haru, I'm going to excuse the activity until day 2, where I expect results from him. In fact, Haru, I REALLY want your opinion on the fake cop claim, like talk to me about it and where you're coming from on the situation. I think you might be able to shine a better light on it than anyone else. Banks is also playing in another game, and he seemed kinda-sort-townie catching up in the thread. However, I can't remember anything he's done this game except be at odds with Robik which doesn't tell me anything. I grouped Haru and TP together because they both have an excuse for not being here as much (that I can see, tangibly) and I want to get a better read on them tomorrow. Haru promised reads. Banks needs to do the same.
ExO
One liners entirely in the filter. The only post I can remember clearly is this:
Like, I really don't even know how to respond to this post. Mafia -- too risky to make this move? But why even do it as a townie, WHY MARTYR AT THIS STAGE. I can go with the "too blatantly anti-town to be anti-town" analysis or I can go with the "mafia pretending to be distraught townie" analysis. He also voted Sinani for no reason, and someone brought up a good point about how he knew who to lynch without ever posting near the deadline at all (active lurking). Either way, ExO is a toss up unless Cav flips mafia, in which case ExO is probably also mafia. Wouldn't contest to a vigi shot here either. Might even lynch him.
ObviousOne
I pressured ObviousOne day 1, and I actually liked his response about how he wanted to play the game and how people calling him mafia were interrupting with his playstyle. I can understand that, you just want to get your reads out there. People calling you mafia (when you're the only confirmed town you have) is annoying as shit.
But then I ask his for his read on Koshi, because he was sure he was the lynch earlier.
He talks more about Cav than he does Koshi, which I find odd. He does think Koshi is more townie (I guess?) because he didn't keep pushing OO and stopped the derpy play. He asserts his supposed townread on Koshi here:
But, apparently OO wants to vig his newly-aquired townread:
I don't really understand the mindset. Does he go from 100% Koshi scum, to Koshi is town, to VIG Koshi, in a townie head? Don't think so. I would probably lynch him tomorrow, he's giving me the odd feels.
Robik
Bad lynch for tomorrow. He is probably town for the ALL CAPS OMFG LYNCH THIS ASSHOLE stuff. No reason to lynch tmrw imo.
Kush
Has begun to show signs of minor scum. Will elaborate if they continue, but he actually seems town this game in comparison to last. No lyncherino tmrw.
Mderg
Probably scum for flipping his read on the Robik situation, Vivax gave a decent analysis somewhere. His EoD voting shenanigans are weird. He did the whole "shouldn't lynch the blueclaim, but I don't want to lynch the other wagon either" gambit.
If Cav is town hero cop than Mderg is likely scum trying to distance himself from the lynch. Sinani or Cav was getting lynched 100%, trying to start a new wagon was futile. But, at the end of the day, town can't blame Mderg for voting where he did because he never really wanted to to begin with, but was forced. I've seen scum do this before---see two town wagons, exclaim you don't like either of them, and vote someone else. It's a familiar gambit and I wouldn't put it past anyone. Would lynch atm.
Palmar
Palmar also wasted his vote yesterday. Been extraordinarily inactive for Palmar. Voted Koshi for no reasons given. Built himself as the 'super confirmed-town hero' at the beginning of Day 1 with a spurt of activity and a case, but has sadly been riding off the town cred gained from there. Probably also not a good lynch for tomorrow, because there are a few others before him. If he's town he'll be able to show it, I hope.
Vivax
I find myself agreeing with his reads a lot, which for me indicates town. I liked his fake shot onto Mderg and the way he feels about Palmar (though, I think some of the Palmar read stems from OMGUS). Probably town because of activity, the way he's handled pressure on him, and his reads which I agree with.
Koshi
I went from KOSHI EVUL SCUM early onto maybe townie koshi to now i'm not even sure. I don't want to lynch him tomorrow over some others, and that's all I really know. I don't even want to look at him right now. I'll put the probably town sticker over his name and all it a day.
sooo Ima go with lynch / vig into Cav / Mderg / Exo / OO. Also wary of Palmar, but no lynch tmrw. Be wary of Haru and TP tomorrow -- if they don't show or participate well, kill them imo.
Vivax better be town, if I die he's your leader imo. Trust him, probably robik, and I wouldn't discount kush / koshi as also town.
Working so much today, so I better dump this while I can.
The Cav Situation
If Cav is actually the cop, then his role is useless to us. Mafia almost always have a roleblocker, and any checks from him will certainly be wasted if he survives onward. I think he's a good vigilante shot for this reason. Votes were tied 6-6, if Cav is mafia the game may be solved right there based on vote analysis. If he flips Cop, then we know the wagon was both on town. I'd rather get him vigg'd and out of the way right here and now. And a lynch is not a terrible option either unless he considerably steps up his game and is shining townie out of his butthole.
Haru and Tehpoofter
I know they're playing in a different game right now. For Haru, I'm going to excuse the activity until day 2, where I expect results from him. In fact, Haru, I REALLY want your opinion on the fake cop claim, like talk to me about it and where you're coming from on the situation. I think you might be able to shine a better light on it than anyone else. Banks is also playing in another game, and he seemed kinda-sort-townie catching up in the thread. However, I can't remember anything he's done this game except be at odds with Robik which doesn't tell me anything. I grouped Haru and TP together because they both have an excuse for not being here as much (that I can see, tangibly) and I want to get a better read on them tomorrow. Haru promised reads. Banks needs to do the same.
ExO
One liners entirely in the filter. The only post I can remember clearly is this:
Like, I really don't even know how to respond to this post. Mafia -- too risky to make this move? But why even do it as a townie, WHY MARTYR AT THIS STAGE. I can go with the "too blatantly anti-town to be anti-town" analysis or I can go with the "mafia pretending to be distraught townie" analysis. He also voted Sinani for no reason, and someone brought up a good point about how he knew who to lynch without ever posting near the deadline at all (active lurking). Either way, ExO is a toss up unless Cav flips mafia, in which case ExO is probably also mafia. Wouldn't contest to a vigi shot here either. Might even lynch him.
ObviousOne
I pressured ObviousOne day 1, and I actually liked his response about how he wanted to play the game and how people calling him mafia were interrupting with his playstyle. I can understand that, you just want to get your reads out there. People calling you mafia (when you're the only confirmed town you have) is annoying as shit.
But then I ask his for his read on Koshi, because he was sure he was the lynch earlier.
He talks more about Cav than he does Koshi, which I find odd. He does think Koshi is more townie (I guess?) because he didn't keep pushing OO and stopped the derpy play. He asserts his supposed townread on Koshi here:
But, apparently OO wants to vig his newly-aquired townread:
I don't really understand the mindset. Does he go from 100% Koshi scum, to Koshi is town, to VIG Koshi, in a townie head? Don't think so. I would probably lynch him tomorrow, he's giving me the odd feels.
Robik
Bad lynch for tomorrow. He is probably town for the ALL CAPS OMFG LYNCH THIS ASSHOLE stuff. No reason to lynch tmrw imo.
Kush
Has begun to show signs of minor scum. Will elaborate if they continue, but he actually seems town this game in comparison to last. No lyncherino tmrw.
Mderg
Probably scum for flipping his read on the Robik situation, Vivax gave a decent analysis somewhere. His EoD voting shenanigans are weird. He did the whole "shouldn't lynch the blueclaim, but I don't want to lynch the other wagon either" gambit.
If Cav is town hero cop than Mderg is likely scum trying to distance himself from the lynch. Sinani or Cav was getting lynched 100%, trying to start a new wagon was futile. But, at the end of the day, town can't blame Mderg for voting where he did because he never really wanted to to begin with, but was forced. I've seen scum do this before---see two town wagons, exclaim you don't like either of them, and vote someone else. It's a familiar gambit and I wouldn't put it past anyone. Would lynch atm.
Palmar
Palmar also wasted his vote yesterday. Been extraordinarily inactive for Palmar. Voted Koshi for no reasons given. Built himself as the 'super confirmed-town hero' at the beginning of Day 1 with a spurt of activity and a case, but has sadly been riding off the town cred gained from there. Probably also not a good lynch for tomorrow, because there are a few others before him. If he's town he'll be able to show it, I hope.
Vivax
I find myself agreeing with his reads a lot, which for me indicates town. I liked his fake shot onto Mderg and the way he feels about Palmar (though, I think some of the Palmar read stems from OMGUS). Probably town because of activity, the way he's handled pressure on him, and his reads which I agree with.
Koshi
I went from KOSHI EVUL SCUM early onto maybe townie koshi to now i'm not even sure. I don't want to lynch him tomorrow over some others, and that's all I really know. I don't even want to look at him right now. I'll put the probably town sticker over his name and all it a day.
sooo Ima go with lynch / vig into Cav / Mderg / Exo / OO. Also wary of Palmar, but no lynch tmrw. Be wary of Haru and TP tomorrow -- if they don't show or participate well, kill them imo.
Vivax better be town, if I die he's your leader imo. Trust him, probably robik, and I wouldn't discount kush / koshi as also town.
This is his next megapost. Read it if you want. Here's the gist. Lynch between oo(cause odd feels) / exo(cause bad townie) / mderg(not mentioned) / and cav (who he says may or may not be cop..no shit).
There is nothing indicating a townie thought process in this long post.
Fast forward a little bit to where cav is in full bus mode. Everyone is reading him as town and he figures he only needs 1 mislynch to win.
On July 04 2014 10:15 Rainbows wrote:
Cav / Poof / ExO makes incredible amounts of sense, because both poof and exo were the ones advocating that cav is probably the cop most of the game, whilst most of the town were really speculative on the issue. Also both ExO and Poof didn't vote on Cav in the day 1 lynch. Ofc this is only if cav is mafia, but out of OO / Cav if one is scum it's probably Cav.
Cav / Poof / ExO makes incredible amounts of sense, because both poof and exo were the ones advocating that cav is probably the cop most of the game, whilst most of the town were really speculative on the issue. Also both ExO and Poof didn't vote on Cav in the day 1 lynch. Ofc this is only if cav is mafia, but out of OO / Cav if one is scum it's probably Cav.
Some problems with this are he's reading exo for doing the same exact thing as his other scumread, when scums rarely act in the same way like that. They like to distance each other.
both poof and exo were the ones advocating that cav is probably the cop most of the game, whilst most of the town were really speculative on the issue
Minor scumslip here in that he calls everyone else town. It's also a circular argument. Town was speculative, he wasn't speculative, therefore he's not town. But how do you know the speculative ones were town in the first place?
I CHALLENGE YOU TO FIND ME SOMETHING TOWNIE IN RAINBOWS FILTER.
