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Newbie Mini Mafia LVI - Page 6

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Hobbitus
Profile Joined June 2014
222 Posts
June 27 2014 00:41 GMT
#1640
Well I came back at a semi awkward time
Hobbitus
Profile Joined June 2014
222 Posts
June 27 2014 00:48 GMT
#1641
On June 27 2014 09:10 mtamburini wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2014 09:05 The_Templar wrote:
On June 27 2014 09:03 mtamburini wrote:
On June 27 2014 08:42 GlowingBear wrote:
On June 27 2014 08:31 Tehpoofter wrote:
On June 27 2014 08:17 GlowingBear wrote:
On June 27 2014 07:49 Tehpoofter wrote:
On June 27 2014 07:46 GlowingBear wrote:
On June 27 2014 07:38 Tehpoofter wrote:
On June 27 2014 07:00 GlowingBear wrote:
[quote]

Fun fact: neither was Templar?

If you want to examine us both D3, go ahead. Probably should try a new tactic, talk about people who haven't been talked about much.

I guess you have a point here. It never crossed my mind. But a lynch on Epishade wouldn't bother me, I have a slight scumread on him. I'm actually going to pressure epi and meat d3.


Why not pressure them now?


Not useful while at night, gotta use some voting.
More than that, I'm waiting night consequences to gather enough information to start pressuring. I'd better try to understand the reasons behind the mislynch and filter dive people first and I'm using night for that



Fair enough night can be a good time to talk though about things.

I am still down to talk. Do you think there was a mafia on the vote for Nydus? If so Whom?


Now that you've asked and I had to put thought on this particular question, I find my reads are weak.

If I stay consistent on my reads, meatpudding and Epishade went on a mafia vote on Teemu, and considering there are 4 mafia, two of Nydus voters are scum.

If I consider that there are 4 mafia in the game and that you may be town, mtamburini and thekingofcolombia are scum.

What do you think of this?



I think that the likelyhood of all the mafia being on 2 seperate votes to be unlikely. I imagine if they know mislynches are a bout they spread. I need to read EoD though stupid work is busy so I'm not able to just chill out and read for like an hour or 2 I need.


This would mean some town reads of mine would be scums.
Could you filter dive Hobbitus when you've got the time? I like your opinions.


I am on the same wave length here, no1 voted on him yesterday so Im assuming everyone was reading him as town?

I dont really remember any memorable things from him tbh to make him stand out other than trying to break up the argument me and Haru were having.

I wasn't really there a lot of the day but he's been a nondescript town read for me all game.


He also wasnt voted on day 1

Hobbitus
Profile Joined June 2014
222 Posts
June 27 2014 00:50 GMT
#1642
Uhh, where did my text go??

I said, fun fact: Templar wasn't voted either day also

If you want to examine us both D3 that might be a good idea, since we haven't been in the spotlight at all.
Hobbitus
Profile Joined June 2014
222 Posts
June 27 2014 01:09 GMT
#1644
Then ask away.

What are your thoughts on Templar, also? I am starting to read him as scum.
Hobbitus
Profile Joined June 2014
222 Posts
June 27 2014 01:28 GMT
#1647
Well something he did during the MM/mp lynch fight struck me as scummy but I put it in the back of my mind bc I was reading him as super town at the time. Let me find the posts.

But not only that, after everyone initially townread him, he got really quiet for a while. His number of posts is decent, but... he really doesn't say too much that isn't either an obvious defense (like defending me when I clearly said one thing and Haru was pushing as another) or posts to appease anyone who says anything negative about him. Now obviously town doesn't want to be seen as scum but the WAY he does it shouts "I want no confrontation."
Hobbitus
Profile Joined June 2014
222 Posts
June 27 2014 01:50 GMT
#1651
So he originally voted on mp with a scum read on him, and a "slight town" read on MM.

Then, after MM was being weird MM:

On June 23 2014 10:57 The_Templar wrote:
Wow, is MysteryMeat not defending himself at all right now? Wtf? He even told Scott to fight to the end if he was town...


I don't like this. MM defending or not defending himself doesn't mean anything, neither mafia nor town want to be lynched. And yet that's somehow enough to get him to change his vote to MM. And the bit about Scott... I dunno, that sounds like a very contrived argument to me. MM said scott should keep fighting to the end so town would win, not that fighting to the end MADE scott town, I thought that was fairly obvious.

On June 23 2014 11:34 The_Templar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 23 2014 11:18 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
Templar also declares meatPudding as scum, and says im slightly town. nothing else had been posted by either of us, and he's willing to vote on me. Says there is no way i could be town here and then votes on me. I'd say at least one of the mafia are going to be between tolkien,cats,templar. If we are lucky then two of them would be there. They have been pushing on different people, but never pushed on each other.

My vote was a knee-jerk reaction to your actions initially contradicting your post about scott and was also a pressure post, shifting the majority from pudding back to you.
I didn't mean to say that you could not possibly be town, but not responding for so long is something a town just wouldn't do in normal conditions.
You didn't react, now you have, and since your read makes sense now, I'm switching back to the other meat.


This is the kind of non confrontational thing I'm talking about. At this point in the day, it was unclear which meat was going to get lynched, so if templar were scum he wouldn't want to piss off either of them and risk a case on him D2. Read his filter, he then goes through an awkward series of editing posts trying to reconcile his town read on MM with voting him

On June 23 2014 11:38 The_Templar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 23 2014 11:38 The_Templar wrote:
Also, my general opinion of mysterymeat hadn't changed from my initial post where I said he was slightly town, but I over-reacted to his complete and total lack of defense (I also thought he had given up).

edit: Yeah I said he couldn't be town. That was wrong of me, I should have said he couldn't be town since he wasn't defending at all, but he clearly is now.


So this is all a bit weird, and as soon as I say something to him about it, HE CHANGES HIS VOTE BACK TO MM. Read the entire quote below:

On June 23 2014 12:06 The_Templar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 23 2014 12:04 The_Templar wrote:
On June 23 2014 11:59 Hobbitus wrote:
Templar, this
King:
As its been pointed out by a few people, of my glaring inconsitancy by condeming cats for lynching regardless of alignment. I also don't like how tolkien said it. Missed the sentence in his post where he said it. Unlike teemu and nydus i get my reads from more of a general flow of the game.

is enough for you to change your mind about MM?

Despite Tolkien's beautiful argument?

MysteryMeat's contribution is him trying to pose as normal town when he hasn't been posting much. My (limited) experience with lurker scum is that they hide until the second half of Day 1 before posting a "reads" list, and giving a vote in the hopes it'll let them off the hook for any suspicion, and voting for a possible bandwagon based on the general feelings in the thread. Let's be real here, NO ONE in this thread thought I was scum until GlowingBear (I believe Haru had already removed his vote at the time), so he figured it'd be best to continue the trend. Cats a safe vote. A bandwagon on meatpudding, but Cats is under suspicion so his vote won't be heavily scruitinized D2 if meatpudding turns up green.

It's just impossible for him not to even MENTION that I pushed for a lynch on a player for being deadweight and being FINE with a mislynch if that happens, if that's why he's so bent on voting Cats. It's just ridiculously impossible, like holy shit.

I never changed my general opinion of MysteryMeat. However, he's sort of looking frantic at this point, so I'm considering changing my vote back. I don't like changing my vote back and forth so I'm waiting until a conclusion is being reached.

On June 23 2014 12:00 TheKingOfTheCats wrote:
On June 23 2014 11:47 The_Templar wrote:
On June 23 2014 11:27 TheKingOfTheCats wrote:
On June 23 2014 11:12 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
Just from rereading the thread over my town reads would be

Scott: He votes on himself because he feels that the game isn't for him. Then thanks me for telling him to keep fighting if he was town. If Scott was mafia, I doubt he would be feeling alone, as he would have a mafia qt to post in and ask for advice. He hasn't contributed a whole lot but i really think he is town.

King:
As its been pointed out by a few people, of my glaring inconsitancy by condeming cats for lynching regardless of alignment. I also don't like how tolkien said it. Missed the sentence in his post where he said it. Unlike teemu and nydus i get my reads from more of a general flow of the game.

The_Templar:
Says scumhunting isn't essential day 1, doesn't like scott, and is willing to lynch him because he has no scum read.

Like the reason i don't like CATS, Tolkien, is because they seem very ready to lynch people, and throwing scum on people to sway town into voting on them. (this isn't OMGUS) but teemu on the other hand votes on people to get reactions and reads. I think there is a very clear distinction. I usually don't pay too much attention, but in this case imo the distinction is pretty clear.

Teemu: I really like teemu, he's pushing for information, and getting reads. He thinks pudding is scum, which i think pudding could be town.

Nydus: Hasn't posted a ton recently but i think he's pretty town. The way i distinguish between his town and mafia play is how objective he is to the game. When he's town his reads are more selfish and when he's mafia his reads are really objective.

Tolkien: i honestly don't like, once again not for OMGUS, but he wants to lynch lurkers, which i don't agree with. If they keep on lurking they could get modkilled. He also is telling blue roles how to play the game. There is more than one way to play mafia, and i think he's just fishing for roles to kill in the night honestly. I also don't like the fact that when people talked about my inconsistency on cat's and tolkien. No one really mentioned the fact that there could be a relationship between tolkien and I. IMO if mafia are going to go for an inconsitancy like that it happens for a reason.

HARUH: Leaning pretty town. I like his reads early on in the game.

Epishade: I don't know atm. I get this odd feeling like he's playing slightly different than he was the last time i played with him when he was town. Don't know what this really means, but could potentially expand on this on d2 if im alive.

in the mafia fence pile
jabber
glowingbear (first post striked me as really odd)
pudding (said he could be town, but i think teemu is pretty town and teemu is pretty good at finding mafia)

Why are me and Tolkien on your townpile if you don't like either of us?

Where was Tolkien telling blue roles how to play the game and how is that scummy?

What is this possible relationship between you and Tolkien?

Can you elaborate on why the people in your mafia pile are scummy?

I'm going to help meat a bit and answer that relationship question. This post was the initial lynch post, where tolkien did something similar to what I did later (although I've retracted mine in favor of the still very scummy meatpudding)

I'm sorry but i really can't see what you're getting at. How does that post help explain a relationship between MM and Tolkien?

It got the town riled up against MM for the most part. It also caused my vote to change to MM to pressure him, which made him come out and start defending himself. Now MM is defending himself from Tolkien among other people.

This thread has gotten really, really weird.

To clarify: I am mentally voting for MM at this point, and if nothing has changed in the next 40 or so minutes, I'll unvote meatpudding. But I don't want to spam the vote list.


He's so pliant. It just seems super scummy to me. It also makes me think that both meats are actually town, and either wagon would have resulted in a mislynch D1.
Hobbitus
Profile Joined June 2014
222 Posts
June 27 2014 01:54 GMT
#1652
On June 27 2014 10:38 The_Templar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2014 10:28 Hobbitus wrote:
Well something he did during the MM/mp lynch fight struck me as scummy but I put it in the back of my mind bc I was reading him as super town at the time. Let me find the posts.

But not only that, after everyone initially townread him, he got really quiet for a while. His number of posts is decent, but... he really doesn't say too much that isn't either an obvious defense (like defending me when I clearly said one thing and Haru was pushing as another) or posts to appease anyone who says anything negative about him. Now obviously town doesn't want to be seen as scum but the WAY he does it shouts "I want no confrontation."

Most of my style is "I want no confrontation". I'm terrible at arguing in general, so I try to push people without getting into a huge argument so that I can actually keep my head in the game. I don't see why this is a huge problem.


Well I can see you not wanting to get in a stupid tamburini/haru argument, but the way you react when you are pushed isn't conducive to reading YOU at all.
Hobbitus
Profile Joined June 2014
222 Posts
June 27 2014 02:40 GMT
#1657
On June 27 2014 10:59 The_Templar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2014 10:54 Hobbitus wrote:
On June 27 2014 10:38 The_Templar wrote:
On June 27 2014 10:28 Hobbitus wrote:
Well something he did during the MM/mp lynch fight struck me as scummy but I put it in the back of my mind bc I was reading him as super town at the time. Let me find the posts.

But not only that, after everyone initially townread him, he got really quiet for a while. His number of posts is decent, but... he really doesn't say too much that isn't either an obvious defense (like defending me when I clearly said one thing and Haru was pushing as another) or posts to appease anyone who says anything negative about him. Now obviously town doesn't want to be seen as scum but the WAY he does it shouts "I want no confrontation."

Most of my style is "I want no confrontation". I'm terrible at arguing in general, so I try to push people without getting into a huge argument so that I can actually keep my head in the game. I don't see why this is a huge problem.


Well I can see you not wanting to get in a stupid tamburini/haru argument, but the way you react when you are pushed isn't conducive to reading YOU at all.

What exactly do you mean by that?


I mean if someone pushes on you, you either change your action, backpedal, or say "oh, yeah, you're right." In this game I've seen you push people with a reasonable amount of aggression so I find it hard to believe you wouldn't stand up for your opinions if you were town.
Hobbitus
Profile Joined June 2014
222 Posts
June 27 2014 02:41 GMT
#1658
On June 27 2014 11:13 Teemursu wrote:
I'm awake. Ask questions etc.

Also, Hobbitus, I gave my quick reads on Templar's vote switching, could you give your opinion on them?. They're somewhere in n1 where I made the big amount of posts about day d1 analysis.


Can you find it for me? I'm still reading in the mid sixties, which I missed completely.
Hobbitus
Profile Joined June 2014
222 Posts
June 27 2014 02:56 GMT
#1662

Your first point is silly. At that point, I was realizing that MysteryMeat had been completely unresponsive. At that point I started filter-diving him and found the post about scott, which you are making into much more of a deal than it actually is.


My vote was a knee-jerk reaction to your actions initially contradicting your post about scott and was also a pressure post, shifting the majority from pudding back to you.


How am I making too big a deal out of it when half the reason you voted him was bc of the scott post, which was quite obviously not what MM meant?

I edit a lot of my posts outside mafia btw, generally to clear up a point that I didn't explain well. This is a piece of bad practice in general for me. It's also why I'm not good at arguing.


I don't post all of my thoughts in real-time. I generally take time to express my thoughts, sorry.


If you take so much time carefully considering your posts, why do you have to re-explain them after they are posted?

And, hun, don't be pouty that I'm asking you questions. You can change your mind as much as you want; as Nydus said, it's good to constantly re-evaluate your reads. The issue is that you change your mind when other people pressure you to.
Hobbitus
Profile Joined June 2014
222 Posts
June 27 2014 03:56 GMT
#1667
Summary post:

Reads (and stuff I'm thinking about atm)
HaruRH-scum (says tolkien was shot bc on to mafia-obvious answer)
Thekingofthecats-town (gets caught up in the details)
GlowingBear-town (adorable but in that clueless animal way) (could be wrong, suspicious about blue role posts/not changing his vote last night)
Meatpudding-town (suspect both wagons D1 were town, never had convincing case against)
Epishade-scum (see post)
mtamburini-town (too annoying to be scum)
The_Templar-scum (see post) (also, really conscious of how posts sound when they don't even sound scummy/clarifying when he doesn't need to etc/not changing his vote last night)
Teemu-town (for actions during D2 EOD, consolidation of votes etc)

What I think we should focus on D3:
-why was Tolkien shot? (My guess is that it had something to do with mp, and that it was probably mafia who killed him)
-take a look at the whole bear calling haru blue and then haru being roleblocked thing, mafia shouldn't roleblock based on the opinion of one townie.
-possibility: if bear, templar and epi are scum, it could explain why templar/bear never changed their vote last night. didn't want epi to get lynched and yet knew the case on nydus was really stupid
Hobbitus
Profile Joined June 2014
222 Posts
June 27 2014 03:58 GMT
#1668
Also, Haru's argument that tamburini was scummier than anyone else bc he's annoying is garbs, too much of a knee jerk reaction for town?
Hobbitus
Profile Joined June 2014
222 Posts
June 27 2014 04:03 GMT
#1674
Hobbitus
Profile Joined June 2014
222 Posts
June 27 2014 04:14 GMT
#1679
;-; This is so bad. Posted my major thoughts in case of night kill, can explain them tmrw. Now bed.
Hobbitus
Profile Joined June 2014
222 Posts
June 27 2014 04:14 GMT
#1680
##Vote: The_Templar
Hobbitus
Profile Joined June 2014
222 Posts
June 27 2014 04:23 GMT
#1683
Last note of the night, I promise. HARU, YOU CONFUSE ME SO. Some posts you seem so town, others so scum.
Hobbitus
Profile Joined June 2014
222 Posts
June 27 2014 14:28 GMT
#1706
Why would scum push so hard, so obviously, and at the same exact time? I decided to push Templar today, if bear does the same exact thing, it makes no difference to me.

This is my first game, I am changing my reads, even completely flipping my opinion on people as I figure out what's going on. All I know is not a single scum has been lynched yet, and after mm and Tolkien died I had to seriously reconsider what I thought made someone scummy. That change my opinion on cats to town, which was confirmed last night. I also didn't really see the case on nydus (but was behind so I didn't know if I missed something major). Before that I had been wrong about everyone, so it seems my new method of thinking is more accurate.
Hobbitus
Profile Joined June 2014
222 Posts
June 27 2014 14:48 GMT
#1712
On June 27 2014 12:56 Hobbitus wrote:
Summary post:

Reads (and stuff I'm thinking about atm)
HaruRH-scum (says tolkien was shot bc on to mafia-obvious answer)
Thekingofthecats-town (gets caught up in the details)
GlowingBear-town (adorable but in that clueless animal way) (could be wrong, suspicious about blue role posts/not changing his vote last night)
Meatpudding-town (suspect both wagons D1 were town, never had convincing case against)
Epishade-scum (see post)
mtamburini-town (too annoying to be scum)
The_Templar-scum (see post) (also, really conscious of how posts sound when they don't even sound scummy/clarifying when he doesn't need to etc/not changing his vote last night)
Teemu-town (for actions during D2 EOD, consolidation of votes etc)

What I think we should focus on D3:
-why was Tolkien shot? (My guess is that it had something to do with mp, and that it was probably mafia who killed him)
-take a look at the whole bear calling haru blue and then haru being roleblocked thing, mafia shouldn't roleblock based on the opinion of one townie.
-possibility: if bear, templar and epi are scum, it could explain why templar/bear never changed their vote last night. didn't want epi to get lynched and yet knew the case on nydus was really stupid


Not sure about you, but everyone else is the same as last night.
Hobbitus
Profile Joined June 2014
222 Posts
June 27 2014 14:54 GMT
#1714
On June 27 2014 23:46 HaruRH wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2014 23:26 GlowingBear wrote:
On June 27 2014 23:00 HaruRH wrote:
On June 27 2014 12:59 GlowingBear wrote:
I'm having a feeling that I'm dying this night. So, I would like to share thoughts in case I don't live.

I've being filter diving a lot this night and was waiting for the night results. While filter diving, an idea crossed my mind.
We've been discussing how contradictory some players were looking and we were judging their alignment solely on that.
What happened?
4 townies died. Of course, 1 modkill and 1 nightkill. But still, ALL OF THEM were contradictory.
Which means that being contradictory isn't necessary a scum signal. It may help identify one, but it's secondary.
If we've lost so many by attacking their contradictory posts, what do we have here? A very consistent Mafia, that is. A Mafia who is well connected and using the information they have to lead the mislynches.
To find the Mafia in this game we must not search for people being inconsistent in their posts. We have to search for people that are not compromising themselves in their votes, in their analysis. People that are not raising flags but following town misreads so they will win a mislynch. They contribute for the mislynch but they do not compromise themselves by doing so.

There are some who are doing this. In order of my suspicions, The_Templar, Epishade, Hobbitus, Teemu, Haru. (Have in my this takes off my scumread on meatpudding).
I think The_Templar is the one shines the most here, IMO. If you filter dive through his filters, he is not starting pushes to force town agenda. He is actually following these misleads. It started with meatpudding, then he found a better vote on MysteryMeat1. Next, he went to jabber when he completely acted contradictory (easy vote, everybody was voting on contradictory people).
If you are not sure what I am talking about, dive through his filters. You will see his passivity (is this a word?) then his easy votes.
Have in mind that this interpretation implies that Mafia really did split their votes on Day2 so Nydus would be an easy kill.
One last thing: dive through scott's short filter and compare to mtamburini's. I haven't done this but I think this is important, it might give some clues on his alignment.
I hope this help townies on D3!
I probably had more to say but it's getting close to the deadline and I don't think I have more time to "evolve" my logic.
PS: I've asked a list on top scum and top town so it might give me an insight on who are the Mason Couple, but I have failed to do so =/
PS: I'm not sure if this is obvious or not, but this is my first Mafia game ever, so this insight came to me...
PS3: FORGOT TO CHECK KOTC FILTERS PLEASE DO SO.


I lost you there. So mafias are consistent? Towns are inconsistent? You're flipping all the knowledge I ever had of mafia.
Also, passivity is not a good case for scum. much like I can call you out for being inconsistent with your reads.
'he is not starting pushes to force town agenda. He is actually following these misleads'. you're doing the same till d3. So can I lynch you based on that?


Mafia does not want do draw attention. They will try to look productive but actually they are just trying to not be compromised.
What I'm trying to say in the bolded part is that townies are so lost in this game here that they start being inconsistent in their reads. Townies are looking at a poor reasoning and assuming that it's a mafia thing, which may be, but it's secondary. It came to me that it is not the best way to catch mafia, as we can see by the results. The key to catch mafia is understanding their behaviour on not wanting to get lynch more than trying to find scum. And I found this pattern while interpreting Templar's post.

That night post my have came poorly worded because I wrote it on rush in case I was the victim.

And I don't believe I've being doing the same. I've being reasoning my votes ever since the beginning, not simply following. Filter dive me and compare it to templar's.

If you still believe that I'm behaving just as templar's, then stick your vote on whichever you find most likely. Just have in mind that looking for contradictions on people's posts led us to 2 mislynches.


I did a quick filterdive of both of you and indeed, I can draw parallel on how you two voted and pushed. That is probably how you 2 got on the jabber wagon on d2 too.

Your push on meatpudding: 'Having said all of these, although I still have a feeling that TheKingOfCats might be scum, I'll vore for meatpudding as I've got now a stronger read on him.'

Templar's push on scott:' Yeah, I feel much better about voting scott than Cats, as Cats will probably contribute (although I have no idea how much, I thought he wasn't going to much today).'
Templar's reasons for changing off scott: 'Please unvote yourself and keep your head in the game. Also, I'd rather not waste a lynch when you can just ask to be replaced.'
Subsequent push on meatpudding: 'Seems to be making stuff up/being inconsistent. Throwing out random accusations doesn't make you a scum hunter.'
Templar's push on MM(pressure vote): 'Wow, is MysteryMeat not defending himself at all right now? Wtf? He even told Scott to fight to the end if he was town...'
goes back to meatpudding: 'You didn't react, now you have, and since your read makes sense now, I'm switching back to the other meat.'
goes back to MM: 'Yeah, MM1 is making less and less sense as this goes on. And meatpudding has shown a willingness to post what he thinks later (although why is he avoiding the god damned issue of him vs MM, I have no idea).'

what he did was quite logical. Both MM and meatpudding were obvious targets in d1 since they were incoherent and made no sense, which everyone pointed out. In fact, Templar is more town than you here because he actually bothered to pressure MM for reads so that he could compare which meat to lynch. While you stuck onto meatpudding simply because your scumread on him is stronger than your scumread on kotc.



D2:
glowingbear's push on me(pressure vote): 'You've been too quiet, and I need you to reply this post of mine'
glowingbear's vote on jabber: 'Now that I believe we could be in a town VS town scenario, and after jabb tried to "hide" on my argument that flips are really important... I'm definitive now.'

Templar's push on jabber: 'In the battle of the meats, he takes a neutral stance immediately' 'Basically he's just agreeing with people without offering an opinion at this point.'

Both of you came to the same conclusion that jabber isn't trying to respond to anything at the time of the lynch.

Both of you are really similar in your voting and reads. Whatever you have said about Templar can seriously be applied on you too.


Yes our reads were/are very similar. But notice how jabber didn't get (mis)lynched. Everyone that's been mislynched has happened with pretty much everyone assuming you and Templar are town lol.
Hobbitus
Profile Joined June 2014
222 Posts
June 27 2014 15:01 GMT
#1718
On June 27 2014 23:56 HaruRH wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2014 23:54 Hobbitus wrote:
On June 27 2014 23:46 HaruRH wrote:
On June 27 2014 23:26 GlowingBear wrote:
On June 27 2014 23:00 HaruRH wrote:
On June 27 2014 12:59 GlowingBear wrote:
I'm having a feeling that I'm dying this night. So, I would like to share thoughts in case I don't live.

I've being filter diving a lot this night and was waiting for the night results. While filter diving, an idea crossed my mind.
We've been discussing how contradictory some players were looking and we were judging their alignment solely on that.
What happened?
4 townies died. Of course, 1 modkill and 1 nightkill. But still, ALL OF THEM were contradictory.
Which means that being contradictory isn't necessary a scum signal. It may help identify one, but it's secondary.
If we've lost so many by attacking their contradictory posts, what do we have here? A very consistent Mafia, that is. A Mafia who is well connected and using the information they have to lead the mislynches.
To find the Mafia in this game we must not search for people being inconsistent in their posts. We have to search for people that are not compromising themselves in their votes, in their analysis. People that are not raising flags but following town misreads so they will win a mislynch. They contribute for the mislynch but they do not compromise themselves by doing so.

There are some who are doing this. In order of my suspicions, The_Templar, Epishade, Hobbitus, Teemu, Haru. (Have in my this takes off my scumread on meatpudding).
I think The_Templar is the one shines the most here, IMO. If you filter dive through his filters, he is not starting pushes to force town agenda. He is actually following these misleads. It started with meatpudding, then he found a better vote on MysteryMeat1. Next, he went to jabber when he completely acted contradictory (easy vote, everybody was voting on contradictory people).
If you are not sure what I am talking about, dive through his filters. You will see his passivity (is this a word?) then his easy votes.
Have in mind that this interpretation implies that Mafia really did split their votes on Day2 so Nydus would be an easy kill.
One last thing: dive through scott's short filter and compare to mtamburini's. I haven't done this but I think this is important, it might give some clues on his alignment.
I hope this help townies on D3!
I probably had more to say but it's getting close to the deadline and I don't think I have more time to "evolve" my logic.
PS: I've asked a list on top scum and top town so it might give me an insight on who are the Mason Couple, but I have failed to do so =/
PS: I'm not sure if this is obvious or not, but this is my first Mafia game ever, so this insight came to me...
PS3: FORGOT TO CHECK KOTC FILTERS PLEASE DO SO.


I lost you there. So mafias are consistent? Towns are inconsistent? You're flipping all the knowledge I ever had of mafia.
Also, passivity is not a good case for scum. much like I can call you out for being inconsistent with your reads.
'he is not starting pushes to force town agenda. He is actually following these misleads'. you're doing the same till d3. So can I lynch you based on that?


Mafia does not want do draw attention. They will try to look productive but actually they are just trying to not be compromised.
What I'm trying to say in the bolded part is that townies are so lost in this game here that they start being inconsistent in their reads. Townies are looking at a poor reasoning and assuming that it's a mafia thing, which may be, but it's secondary. It came to me that it is not the best way to catch mafia, as we can see by the results. The key to catch mafia is understanding their behaviour on not wanting to get lynch more than trying to find scum. And I found this pattern while interpreting Templar's post.

That night post my have came poorly worded because I wrote it on rush in case I was the victim.

And I don't believe I've being doing the same. I've being reasoning my votes ever since the beginning, not simply following. Filter dive me and compare it to templar's.

If you still believe that I'm behaving just as templar's, then stick your vote on whichever you find most likely. Just have in mind that looking for contradictions on people's posts led us to 2 mislynches.


I did a quick filterdive of both of you and indeed, I can draw parallel on how you two voted and pushed. That is probably how you 2 got on the jabber wagon on d2 too.

Your push on meatpudding: 'Having said all of these, although I still have a feeling that TheKingOfCats might be scum, I'll vore for meatpudding as I've got now a stronger read on him.'

Templar's push on scott:' Yeah, I feel much better about voting scott than Cats, as Cats will probably contribute (although I have no idea how much, I thought he wasn't going to much today).'
Templar's reasons for changing off scott: 'Please unvote yourself and keep your head in the game. Also, I'd rather not waste a lynch when you can just ask to be replaced.'
Subsequent push on meatpudding: 'Seems to be making stuff up/being inconsistent. Throwing out random accusations doesn't make you a scum hunter.'
Templar's push on MM(pressure vote): 'Wow, is MysteryMeat not defending himself at all right now? Wtf? He even told Scott to fight to the end if he was town...'
goes back to meatpudding: 'You didn't react, now you have, and since your read makes sense now, I'm switching back to the other meat.'
goes back to MM: 'Yeah, MM1 is making less and less sense as this goes on. And meatpudding has shown a willingness to post what he thinks later (although why is he avoiding the god damned issue of him vs MM, I have no idea).'

what he did was quite logical. Both MM and meatpudding were obvious targets in d1 since they were incoherent and made no sense, which everyone pointed out. In fact, Templar is more town than you here because he actually bothered to pressure MM for reads so that he could compare which meat to lynch. While you stuck onto meatpudding simply because your scumread on him is stronger than your scumread on kotc.



D2:
glowingbear's push on me(pressure vote): 'You've been too quiet, and I need you to reply this post of mine'
glowingbear's vote on jabber: 'Now that I believe we could be in a town VS town scenario, and after jabb tried to "hide" on my argument that flips are really important... I'm definitive now.'

Templar's push on jabber: 'In the battle of the meats, he takes a neutral stance immediately' 'Basically he's just agreeing with people without offering an opinion at this point.'

Both of you came to the same conclusion that jabber isn't trying to respond to anything at the time of the lynch.

Both of you are really similar in your voting and reads. Whatever you have said about Templar can seriously be applied on you too.


Yes our reads were/are very similar. But notice how jabber didn't get (mis)lynched. Everyone that's been mislynched has happened with pretty much everyone assuming you and Templar are town lol.


So d1, did my meatpudding lynch become a mislynch? no, because everyone went to MM's wagon.
D2, did my epishade lynch become a mislynch? no, because everyone went crazy and voted weirdly.

Nobody mislynched because of either mine or Templar's opinions. Even if both of us were read as scum, nobody would still lynch because of our opinions because it did not happen. What are you trying to do now?


Lol, because the MM/mp argument wasn't exactly the same and couldn't have gone either way.

...You didn't vote for epishade?
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