Color Coding:
Confirmed Town
Confirmed Scum (Oats is being treated as confirmed scum)
Confirmed non-Town
+ Show Spoiler [Big Spoiler Alert] +On April 03 2014 09:09 GreYMisT wrote: Hour 0
On April 04 2014 01:35 LoneMeow wrote: Hour 16.5
IAmRobik (0): Palmar
LSB (1): VisceraEyes
yamato77 (1): Holyflare
austinmcc (1): raynpelikoneet, raynpelikoneet
kitaman27 (1): Dandel Ion
VisceraEyes (0): Palmar
Balla24 (3): iamperfection, Oatsmaster, Palmar
Not voting (23): IAmRobik, LSB, austinmcc, Paperscraps, VayneAuthority, Koshi, Hopeless1der, yamato77, Tehpoofter, kitaman27, WaveofShadow, strongandbig, Amiko, Killing, Balla24, syllogism, marvellosity, justanothertownie, Djodref, Foolishness, sandroba, gumshoe, Keirathi
On April 04 2014 05:56 LoneMeow wrote: Hour 21
IAmRobik (0): Palmar
LSB (1): VisceraEyes
yamato77 (2): Holyflare, LSB
austinmcc (0): raynpelikoneet, raynpelikoneet
kitaman27 (1): Dandel Ion
VisceraEyes (0): Palmar
Balla24 (2): iamperfection, Oatsmaster, Palmar
marvellosity (2): Palmar, raynpelikoneet
Not voting (22): IAmRobik, austinmcc, Paperscraps, VayneAuthority, Koshi, Hopeless1der, yamato77, Tehpoofter, kitaman27, WaveofShadow, strongandbig, Amiko, Killing, Balla24, syllogism, marvellosity, justanothertownie, Djodref, Foolishness, sandroba, gumshoe, Keirathi
On April 04 2014 17:54 LoneMeow wrote: Hour 34
IAmRobik (0): Palmar
iamperfection (1): Foolishness
Holyflare (4): sandroba, marvellosity, Dandel Ion, yamato77
LSB (0): VisceraEyes
Paperscraps (2): Blazinghand, marvellosity, Amiko
yamato77 (2): Holyflare, LSB
kitaman27 (1): Dandel Ion, Palmar
VisceraEyes (0): Palmar
VayneAuthority (2): VisceraEyes, Oatsmaster
gumshoe (0): kitaman27
Dandel Ion (1): kitaman27
Blazinghand (2): iamperfection, Oatsmaster, Palmar, Paperscraps, Dandel Ion, WaveofShadow
marvellosity (2): Palmar, Koshi, Koshi, Paperscraps
Not voting (12): IAmRobik, austinmcc, VayneAuthority, Hopeless1der, Tehpoofter, strongandbig, Killing, syllogism, justanothertownie, Djodref, gumshoe, Keirathi
On April 04 2014 23:27 LoneMeow wrote: Hour 39.5
IAmRobik (0): Palmar, Tehpoofter
iamperfection (2): Foolishness, kitaman27
Holyflare (3): sandroba, marvellosity, Dandel Ion, yamato77
LSB (0): VisceraEyes
Paperscraps (7): Blazinghand, marvellosity, Amiko, marvellosity, Tehpoofter, Holyflare, Holyflare, Oatsmaster, iamperfection
yamato77 (1): Holyflare, LSB
kitaman27 (1): Dandel Ion, Palmar
VisceraEyes (0): Palmar
VayneAuthority (1): VisceraEyes, Oatsmaster
gumshoe (0): kitaman27
Dandel Ion (0): kitaman27
Blazinghand (1): iamperfection, Oatsmaster, Palmar, Paperscraps, Dandel Ion, WaveofShadow
marvellosity (1): Palmar, Koshi, Koshi, Paperscraps
Not voting (12): IAmRobik, austinmcc, VayneAuthority, Koshi, Hopeless1der, strongandbig, Killing, syllogism, justanothertownie, Djodref, gumshoe, Keirathi
On April 05 2014 06:02 LoneMeow wrote: Hour 46
IAmRobik (0): Palmar, Tehpoofter
iamperfection (2): Foolishness, kitaman27, Paperscraps
Holyflare (2): sandroba, marvellosity, Dandel Ion, yamato77
LSB (0): VisceraEyes
Paperscraps (13): Blazinghand, marvellosity, Amiko, marvellosity, Tehpoofter, Holyflare, Holyflare, Oatsmaster, iamperfection, Palmar, justanothertownie, LSB, VisceraEyes, Koshi, strongandbig
Amiko (1): kitaman27
yamato77 (0): Holyflare, LSB
Tehpoofter (1): syllogism
kitaman27 (0): Dandel Ion, Palmar
VisceraEyes (0): Palmar
VayneAuthority (0): VisceraEyes, Oatsmaster
gumshoe (0): kitaman27, syllogism
Dandel Ion (0): kitaman27
Blazinghand (1): iamperfection, Oatsmaster, Palmar, Paperscraps, Dandel Ion, WaveofShadow
marvellosity (0): Palmar, Koshi, Koshi, Paperscraps
Not voting (9): IAmRobik, austinmcc, VayneAuthority, Hopeless1der, Killing, Djodref, sandroba, gumshoe, Keirathi
On April 05 2014 08:15 LoneMeow wrote: Hour 48.25
IAmRobik (0): Palmar, Tehpoofter
iamperfection (1): Foolishness, kitaman27, Paperscraps
Holyflare (0): sandroba, marvellosity, Dandel Ion, yamato77
LSB (0): VisceraEyes
Paperscraps (12): Blazinghand, marvellosity, Amiko, marvellosity, Tehpoofter, Holyflare, Holyflare, Oatsmaster, iamperfection, Palmar, justanothertownie, LSB, VisceraEyes, Koshi, strongandbig, Hopeless1der, kitaman27, kitaman27
Amiko (3): kitaman27, Paperscraps, Killing, IAmRobik
yamato77 (0): Holyflare, LSB
Tehpoofter (1): syllogism
kitaman27 (0): Dandel Ion, Palmar
VisceraEyes (0): Palmar
VayneAuthority (0): VisceraEyes, Oatsmaster
gumshoe (6): kitaman27, syllogism, sandroba, marvellosity, strongandbig, yamato77, justanothertownie, Dandel Ion
Dandel Ion (0): kitaman27
Blazinghand (1): iamperfection, Oatsmaster, Palmar, Paperscraps, Dandel Ion, WaveofShadow
marvellosity (0): Palmar, Koshi, Koshi, Paperscraps
Not voting (5): austinmcc, VayneAuthority, Djodref, gumshoe, Keirathi
On April 05 2014 09:48 Acrofales wrote: Hour 49.75
IAmRobik (0): Palmar, Tehpoofter
iamperfection (1): Foolishness, kitaman27, Paperscraps
Holyflare (0): sandroba, marvellosity, Dandel Ion, yamato77
LSB (0): VisceraEyes
Paperscraps (8): Blazinghand, marvellosity, Amiko, marvellosity, Tehpoofter, Holyflare, Holyflare, Oatsmaster, iamperfection, Palmar, justanothertownie, LSB, VisceraEyes, Koshi, strongandbig, Hopeless1der, kitaman27, kitaman27, VayneAuthority
Amiko (1): kitaman27, Paperscraps, Killing, IAmRobik, marvellosity, justanothertownie, Keirathi
yamato77 (0): Holyflare, LSB
Tehpoofter (1): syllogism
kitaman27 (0): Dandel Ion, Palmar
VisceraEyes (0): Palmar
VayneAuthority (1): VisceraEyes, Oatsmaster, gumshoe
gumshoe (16): kitaman27, syllogism, sandroba, marvellosity, strongandbig, yamato77, justanothertownie, Dandel Ion, Koshi, marvellosity, paperscraps, Holyflare, justanothertownie, Hopeless1der, Keirathi, Amiko, austinmcc, Killing, WaveofShadow, VE
Dandel Ion (0): kitaman27
Blazinghand (0): iamperfection, Oatsmaster, Palmar, Paperscraps, Dandel Ion, WaveofShadow
marvellosity (0): Palmar, Koshi, Koshi, Paperscraps
Not voting (1): Djodref
On April 05 2014 10:03 GreYMisT wrote: Hour 50
Day 1 vote count:
IAmRobik (0): Palmar, Tehpoofter
iamperfection (1): Foolishness, kitaman27, Paperscraps
Holyflare (0): sandroba, marvellosity, Dandel Ion, yamato77
LSB (0): VisceraEyes
Paperscraps (8): Blazinghand, marvellosity, Amiko, marvellosity, Tehpoofter, Holyflare, Holyflare, Oatsmaster, iamperfection, Palmar, justanothertownie, LSB, VisceraEyes, Koshi, strongandbig, Hopeless1der, kitaman27, kitaman27, VayneAuthority
Amiko (1): kitaman27, Paperscraps, Killing, IAmRobik, marvellosity, justanothertownie, Keirathi
yamato77 (0): Holyflare, LSB
Tehpoofter (1): syllogism
kitaman27 (0): Dandel Ion, Palmar
VisceraEyes (0): Palmar
VayneAuthority (1): VisceraEyes, Oatsmaster, gumshoe
gumshoe (17): kitaman27, syllogism, sandroba, marvellosity, strongandbig, yamato77, justanothertownie, Dandel Ion, Koshi, marvellosity, paperscraps, Holyflare, justanothertownie, Hopeless1der, Keirathi, Amiko, austinmcc, Killing, WaveofShadow, VE
Dandel Ion (0): kitaman27
Blazinghand (0): iamperfection, Oatsmaster, Palmar, Paperscraps, Dandel Ion, WaveofShadow
marvellosity (0): Palmar, Koshi, Koshi, Paperscraps
Not voting (1): Djodref
Reduced Day 1 vote count:
IAmRobik (0):
iamperfection (1): Foolishness
Holyflare (0):
LSB (0):
Paperscraps (8): Blazinghand, Tehpoofter, Oatsmaster, iamperfection, Palmar, LSB, kitaman27, VayneAuthority
Amiko (1): IAmRobik
yamato77 (0):
Tehpoofter (1): syllogism
kitaman27 (0):
VisceraEyes (0):
VayneAuthority (1): gumshoe
gumshoe (17): sandroba, strongandbig, yamato77, Dandel Ion, Koshi, marvellosity, paperscraps, Holyflare, justanothertownie, Hopeless1der, Keirathi, Amiko, austinmcc, Killing, WaveofShadow, VE
Dandel Ion (0):
Blazinghand (0):
marvellosity (0):
Not voting (1): Djodref
I'm not going to analyze the day 2 votes because from what I remember of the day and there were essentially two caught scum which in many ways makes any sort of analysis pointless. However there are a few things to note.
First, the Paperscraps wagon is exceptionally interesting. Somewhere around Hour 34, this wagon gets started With roughly 10 hours left in the day there are 2 scum and 1 confirmed non-town on the wagon. Six hours later, the wagon adds another third scum and a second confirmed non-town. Of these, only the two confirmed non-town jump off onto the "winning" wagon by the end of the day. This heavily indicates in my opinion that mafia had no preference between the two wagons because both were town.
Second, there were two wagons started on confirmed scum on day 1. Scum didn't voluntarily join either wagon at any point. This means shows a mentality that scum aren't likely willing to bus their teammates on day 1. Additionally, the confirmed scum votes we have for the most part on earlier on the wagon instead of towards the middle or later on the wagon. These become important points later on.
Third, the Amiko wagon is exceptionally interesting. Kita starts it at around Hour 42 when there's a scramble to get off of the paperscraps wagon. I find it interesting that other than JAt no other non-town elements are happy to jump onto this wagon. This wagon seems like it would be an easy mislynch to help get going if it were Town or not-Scum especially when Kita, Marv and Keirathi are at least tacitly support it. Considering Amiko's pretty early vote on Paperscraps and scum's reluctance to help feed this wagon, I think Amiko is actually lying about being 3P. It's not just the fact that the role claim seems interestingly weak for a 3P survivor given the setup, but seeing as how many items town seems to be able to get/produce/whatever, this looks far more like a scum role than anything else. I'm guessing here but I think Syllogism was probably distancing himself from Amiko; it seems like he knew that his number was up and there's little reason to not to try and separate the out to try and win. Especially so when Amiko as a newer player is far more likely to have an excuse to survive until late game.
Fourth, the Dandel Ion wagon or more appropriately the lack thereof. Dandel Ion and IamP have in interesting back and for on Oats where he says:
On April 04 2014 00:22 Dandel Ion wrote:
Ok Oats is scum because he's trying too hard to be calm and rational, when he just isn't calm and rational as town.
That's basically it.
This is quite an accurate meta read on Oats. It's also roughly 3 hours into the game. Like it's really odd that Dandel knows about this meta, Oats follows this meta the whole game, Dandel pokes at him off and on throughout the game for it, yet he never pushes Oats as a wagon at any point OR votes for him. Additionally, no confirmed scum ever join in to vote for or push Dandel's wagon. Dandel moves his vote from Kita to Blazinghand to Holyflare to rest on Gumshoe. I know that there are seemingly a lot of people who think Dandel is town (HF did). I don't know what's happened behind the scenes and I haven't played enough with Dandel to have a meta read on him (my understanding is that as scum he tends to give up and ask to be bussed ASAP IIRC). I would just like "people in the know" to reconsider him somewhat if this strikes a chord with you guys.
Fifth, another person I'd look at from the vote count is Austin. Usually experienced players tend to throw their vote around as a weapon to pressure people or as a show of confidence that they've caught scum. Austin is a good player and maybe he's been in a funk as of late. Him not voting until very late is odd to me. Add that to the fact that I don't like his push on Killing. No I don't think Killing is a bad target and is a reasonable lynch from what I've seen and red, but I don't like how he's pushed Killing specifically especially when, now, where Killing seems to have claimed something else entirely Austin seems to have forgotten much of this. Specifically, he's pushing on Killing for reasons which I don't particularly find scummy one way or another when there are things that I find (and someone agreed upon) to actually be scummy. Town Austin I can usually understand his points and follow reasonably, but not being able to do so on top of Austin voting late is really starting to bug me.
Sixth, for the random stuff... I don't think the votes say much about Hopeless (noted lurker), Killing (not enough relevant meta imo) and a few other of the semi-questionables. Strongandbig looks like he could be in decent scum pile on slots; I'll need to read him later. It clearly doesn't show anything at all about me. I think, considering VE started on scum and hopped around a few times, it shows that VE is more likely to be town because town in general jump around more with their votes than not. Otherwise, I feel like I've wasted the past 4 hours trying to color and type this up and another 1-2 thinking about it when I looked at the end of day vote count at work.
fuck my incompetence and sleepyhead
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EPT
