Contemplating other scenarios isn't alignment-indicative. If a given player is both town and getting on the right track then it's absolutely in the mafia's interest to start "contemplating other scenarios" where this player is mafia.
As for the flow of his post, I thought it seemed somewhat disjointed in the wrong spots. His thought process was pretty clear when explaining the more obvious reads like you and OnceKing, but once he got to sources of controversy like Cavalinho and Tolkien it seemed a lot more jumbled and incoherent. I'm not ultimately too concerned with his tone either way though, it's the content in his case that's jumping out at me more.
And yes, I am in fact pounding away at things I see that are scummy. That's what this game is about. Find the weaknesses and contradictions and ruthlessly exploit them to find the truth.
I don't like the Cavalinho wagon right now. I can see where he's mafia (and I think it's him or Valenius), but all of my plausible mafia scenarios have Tolkien in them. I strongly urge y'all to move to Tolkien, I'm feeling far better about him being mafia than anyone else.
On March 27 2014 06:23 OnceKing wrote: ##UNVOTE btw. The Cavalinho wagon is huge. I would think that the mafia would offer more resistance if one of their own were on the chopping block so early, so I'm inclined to back off of him right now.
This is my thinking exactly when I saw the count. I think Robik made the same mention upthread too.
Guys, get on Tolkien, he's been given ample opportunities to respond by now and has no explanation for that completely ridiculous "trap" lie that's somehow been swept under the rug today.
On March 27 2014 06:26 Valenius wrote: I'll vote when I want to vote on that person. The only one scummy enough for me at the moment would be sqrt, but that would be a wasted vote at the moment.
- He concedes point #1. ("Won't argue this, and you can read it for what you want.") - He concedes point #2. ("Town can sheep, but sheeping still means they aren't thinking for themselves, and makes me devalue their analysis as a worst-case scenario." in response to the assertion that his test isn't alignment-indicative) - He concedes point #4. ("Then again, I'm not entirely sure why I was so quick to jump the gun, so this is valid.")
- He actually doesn't concede point #3. Here is the sequence of relevant posts.
On March 26 2014 13:47 Pixalated wrote: I don't like how he cleared both sqrt and val. Already explained why I don't feel that Val's questions make him town, and sqrt posting random stuff doesn't mean much.
What this means about his alignment I'm not sure. Could be mafia trying to get cred by claiming that people are townie and having 'right' reads when they flip.
On March 26 2014 19:13 Lord Tolkien wrote: Valenius is super town in my eyes, he's cleared for me.
Pixelated is neutral or slightly scummy to me.
On March 26 2014 20:29 Pixalated wrote: In response to Onceking's question before I left - Eden is town. His logic is sound, I agree with his reads, and I like how he pressured Robik.
The one thing that I can agree with LT about is the sqrts thing. Upon my reread of the thread I noted that he left AFTER onceking started talking policy and Robik started pressuring him (I initially thought that he left before). I find it odd that he didn't take the time to make at least a quick comment on it before going to sleep. Still, it isn't enough to judge imo, and I find it oddly suspicious how he reads him to be scummier than Cav, who has had some very faulty logic (will get to that in abit).
On March 26 2014 20:31 Lord Tolkien wrote: Was trying to scumbait with it when questioning Cavalinho and sqrt. Was trying to see if they would piggyback off of it. Went back and deleted those sections specifically to try.
Pixelated is leaning town. He's had more posts and has given reads on sqrt and Valenius, but the main crux of their points have been similar to what OK and others in the thread have said (not much to be said this early into the game, however). He was however the first to defend OK's post (outside of OK), and rightly so. If we're continuing with the Cavalinho lynch, it is...unlikely for them to simultaneously bandwagon on a possible lynch and defend the person in question.
Pixalated's original post on sqrt was not a read. Full stop, end of story. Tolkien is going to quibble about definitions until he hangs because it's his only way out, but "sqrt posting random stuff doesn't mean much" doesn't say "sqrt is X alignment." It's just not a read, there is no room to argue about this.
The problem is that he explicitly said that he "went back and deleted those sections specifically to try" this. This is implying that the part that followed was intended to be in the original post. Again, Pixalated did not give a read on sqrt, so everything Tolkien allegedly "would have said" in the original post could not have actually been in that post. As noted: he's lying.
- He also doesn't concede point #5. He's alleging that I'm inconsistent in my application of criticism regarding the timing of specific posts. He is, of course, completely wrong here as well. My argument is that his supposed "trap" post for Cavalinho and sqrt came a full 20 minutes after his supposed "bait" post, when logically if you were really constructing a trap like that, you would have no reason not to include the trap question in the same post as the bait. You would have thought through the entire process -- "how will they respond to my question? will they take the bait? what would it mean for their alignment if they do X thing?" -- and there's simply no way you would forget for 20 minutes to ask the crucial question to set it up. It just doesn't logically follow as the thought process of someone who was intentionally setting up bait for a trap. This has nothing to do with whether sqrt would have taken a few hours to make a real post, or whatever else.
In conclusion, Tolkien has either conceded or unsatisfactorily responded to every point I've made demonstrating that he is lying, he hasn't established anything remotely resembling reasonable doubt that he was lying, and there is no credible townsided explanation for his lies. Kill him.
Don't know, I just pulled his filter up a minute ago and I'm reading. I'm inclined to think town solely based on the fact that the people pushing him as a lynch are setting off my bullshit radar, but that's not good enough for me because it's not based off of something he's personally done.
First of all, people picking on him and pushing a lynch for making one off-topic comment about his past mafia draws (or lack therein) are idiots or scum. I don't know which and I don't care, shape up or get voted off. That one comment in isolation isn't alignment-indicative.
His initial reads list / first serious page is on the weak side to me. I don't think any of his reads are especially off-base but they're not adding anything to the discussion and he wasn't asking any questions to develop them into unique insights.
His vote for Cavalinho was bad, I literally cannot understand what he was trying to say when he voted for Cavalinho there. What question was open for Cavalinho to answer? I don't follow.
Nothing after the vote really sticks out to me.
All in all his play is sloppy but nothing jumps out to me as either alignment. Again I'm inclined to think he's sloppy town rather than sloppy mafia because everyone pushing him is setting off my bullshit radar; he looks like a good choice for an opportunistic mafia player to get mislynched. But all I see is sloppy play alignment aside.
On March 27 2014 07:19 Eden1892 wrote: Cavalinho I'm off of you and trying hard to get someone besides you lynched, calm down and help me kill Tolkien if you think he's scum.
I'm perfectly calm, I'm just looking for answers. And I think there's a scum between you and LT, and I really want to get to the root of why the way you're working the way you are first.
You pushed me as scummy for quite a while, even when you were voting someone else. If voting someone else constitutes "off of you," why were you off of me and still trying to get me lynched? Why are you deliberately ignoring what I'm telling you? Or is "off of you" just when you supposedly stop talking to me?
Also, reads pls.
zzz
My suspicions have been pretty clear and easy to follow. First I had you pegged, then Tolkien had a bad post that was soft-defending you so I had you two as scum team. He lied which got me to switch vote from you to him, but until I decided Valenius might well be Tolkien's scum partner instead of you, I had you both as scum, so of course I'm going to push for you both to die.
Reads:
Tolkien -- kill him now seriously why aren't all 8 of us non-Tolkien people voting him and Tolkien self-voting out of shame yet
Cavalinho/Valenius -- my two main candidates for Tolkien's partner, liking Valenius more than Cavalinho if Tolkien flips guilty, and if he's inno then Valenius moves down significantly and Cavalinho is my top pick for scum
sqrt -- dude hasn't given me any reason to think he's town, thankfully my three probable bad guys all have by pushing bad cases on him at some point
Pixalated -- true neutral he's talking but not giving me enough to really use
Robik -- active, engaging, aggressive, forthright. town
OnceKing -- extensive meta experience with him, this is probably his town game imo -- I get why people dislike that he plays 20 Questions but I think he's town, the questions are his way of contributing; only thing that's bothering me is that he hasn't made an explicit case yet, lot of following from what I can see so far
Jarvis -- mega posts at one point that screamed town to me, great reads and rationale, but hasn't said anything since and I'd really like more from him
so
Kill Pile: Tolkien, Cavalinho OR Valenius ???? starring ???? as ????: sqrt, Pixalated The A-Team: Robik, OnceKing, Jarvis, Eden
Okay looking at the vote count, of my three mafia suspects, two of them are on a low-poster for reasons that aren't alignment indicative, one of them is by himself on me for silly reasons, and the one who's alone on me is also leading the lynch count and, until a few hours ago, has been leading without serious opposition.
I think Cavalinho isn't mafia at the moment. Looks like Tolkien/Valenius. The push on sqrt didn't begin in earnest until I started pushing hard on Tolkien. I'll revisit this should either of my suspects flip town, but I'm definitely thinking Tolkien and probably thinking Valenius for his scum partner.
Additionally this is telling:
On March 27 2014 06:45 Lord Tolkien wrote: Currently, it seems myself and Cavalinho are the likely lynch targets thus far, and I would submit sqrt as another. Let's keep the votes within this group unless something major comes up.
If Tolkien is mafia then I'm nearly positive both Cavalinho and sqrt are both mafia. I can't think of any good reason why a mafia player would say "Okay guys, let's make sure we kill one of these three guys" and include his teammate as one of the three.
Question time: Pixalated: Which of Tolkien or Cavalinho do you think is more scummy and why? RolandJarvis: Need you to weigh in on Tolkien, Cavalinho, Valenius and sqrt and tell me what you think of their votes for one another and interactions. sqrtofneg1: Why is your vote on Cavalinho again?
On March 27 2014 14:17 Cavalinho wrote: Well, it's not even your read, it's like the reasoning for the read. You seem to have issues with almost everything that can be regarded as poor play...But you townread sqrt for it. The reasoning makes sense, but it doesn't really feel consistent with the rest of what you were pushing throughout today. How strong would you say that read is, and if LT flips town, how would that mar and change the rest of your reads, barring night chat?
There's a difference between "poor play" and "scum play," though they often correlate. My townread on him isn't for poor play, it's because my scumreads are blatantly trying to push him as the lynch. So it's certainly weak. No comment on "if LT flips town" because I'm still working out the practical ramifications of that, I'll cross that bridge if we get there.
OnceKing makes a pretty good case on Valenius there. I want Tolkien more and we need to consolidate the wagons before the end of the day, but if Valenius goes over Tolkien that's not going to bother me much.
On March 27 2014 22:39 RolandJarvis wrote: There were some posts saying... hey that's too many votes on Cavalinho! nobody is defending Cavalinho! ...therefore Cavalinho is probably town.
I strongly, strongly disagree with this logic.
Another contrast with his previous game is Cavalinho had defenders on day 1 of the previous game and has no defenders this game. theDragoon (a mafia) had a strong town read on Cavalinho. When a town is wagoned it's so hard for at least one mafia to resist defending them. They get credibility from being right that they can spend later.
"Don't catch a falling knife"
I want you to imagine you are a mafia this game and Cavalinho is your partner. Eden and Roland are gunning for Cavalinho. They make substantial cases. They have lots of people calling them town. Cavalinho has a good chance of being lynched. You are going to defend Cavalinho? Really? Like say you think his posts make him town? I don't believe that*.
If you are mafia and Cavalinho is your partner you can't defend him. Certainly not when he was the only wagon.
* Not that it's physically impossible for that to happen, just that it's very improbable and the assumption of the posts I'm arguing against is that mafia would most likely defend their partner when he's a runaway day 1 wagon.
Hah, I'm going the exact opposite way you are on this. I think it's comparatively rare that mafia try to defuse a town wagon. They're typically okay with letting it roll in my experience. And I don't expect hypo mafia!Cavalinho's partner to outright try to defuse his wagon; typically only town outright defend a mafia being wagon'd, but I would totally expect people to be pushing alternative cases. Seems like until just recently, this wasn't really happening; people were coming up with alternative cases (Tolkien, sqrt, recently Valenius), but at the same time it was kinda understood that Cavalinho was a caught mafia.
Everything you said makes sense, but I think you can realistically go in the opposite direction and also make sense. (This is why we typically just say "it's WIFOM" in this case.)
Regarding Cavalinho himself I don't really see where he's been all that different, looking at his filters from LII and LIV. I didn't really see him engaging people all that much in LII. Granted I probably need to reread his filter to see, it was kind of a quick skim. I'd be okay with Cavalinho tomorrow maybe but all of my plausible scumteams involve Lord Tolkien so I'm sticking with him.
Robik, vote. Yes, we have time left. I don't care. You should have enough to put your vote down.
Tolkien, some thoughts on your points: 1) What happened to sqrt as a wagon? I thought he was your main suspect? 2) I'm not clearing sqrt... I don't know why my scum reads keep saying this. Actually I guess that answers the question! But in any case I've said repeatedly that I only think he's town because my scum reads are all pushing him and he looks like an easy lynch for scum to push. I see wolves circling a lamb and of course I'm skeptical. But on sqrt's own merits he hasn't done anything to clear himself. 3) Haha bullshit, "toeing the line of what's acceptable" my ass. Every plausible scenario I have involves you being scum. Why would I entertain what I consider highly implausible scenarios right now? It's a waste of energy. If you flip town then great, I'll figure it out day 2. But you can stop this pansy-ass "toeing the line of what's acceptable" shit. Man up and say what you're going to say, don't be a little beta bitch and hide behind insinuations and implications.
On March 28 2014 00:53 Cavalinho wrote: Okay, I'm probably not going to be around at deadline. Can we possibly coalesce on someone soon that preferably isn't me?
Like...I don't see what makes me a "caught mafia." At all.
That was past tense... I'm more certain you're town than I am of Valenius and Tolkien.
Hey Robik, tell me why you haven't voted yet and one significant point of discussion regarding your top two suspects (Cavalinho, Lord Tolkien) that you feel you contributed to the day.
EPT![[image loading]](http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v79/dick_schittlippz/chad-ochocinco-child-please_zps3ba0bc77.jpg)
