|
On February 13 2014 15:55 Oatsmaster wrote:
yeah what aqua said actually.
I just dont think hopeless is scum also. Which leaves like Coag.
Aqua/hopeless, why is Coag confirmed town because of the lynch? Couldnt have it been scum and scum?
Yeah I was thinking about that actually. Ordinarily the argument against both of the wagons on one day being scum is that the scumteam would have tried to set up at least one townie as a possible lynch target. BUT, if the scumteam at that point was Coag/Sidesprang they didn't have the thread presence to do anything of the sort.
So you're quite right. I don't think Coag is confirmed town based on that lynch, now that I think about it.
Which leaves us with two reasons to think Coag's town:
1) his scum meta is to post no reads or much of anything useful at all, which isn't what we've seen here
2) him getting emotional and flaming us for lynching him
Which is... meh.
Regarding 1) I'd like to think Coag isn't a complete incompetent, and could possibly play a better scumgame than his usual if he felt like it. So... meh.
Regarding 2) the question I'm thinking about is "could Coag, as scum, be mad because he thinks he's being lynched ONLY for the flaws in Alakaslam's play?".
And I'm with you here... I really just can't find the scum in the other players. It's conceivable that it's Lone or Hopeless, but I'm not really feeling it.
Coag just bailing out of the thread after the lynch and not coming back for 36 hours sits badly with me too but this being Coag what do you expect.
|
On February 13 2014 16:00 LoneMeow wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2014 15:51 Aquanim wrote:On February 13 2014 15:44 LoneMeow wrote:On February 13 2014 15:34 Aquanim wrote:
Who would be your next best guess ignoring Jay then? Hopeless1der or suki, pretty much equally suspicious of them right now. I'm finding it pretty hard to believe that a scum-Suki would make this post: On February 12 2014 00:25 suki wrote:
Hm...
Call it a hunch, but I'm going to go with Hopeless. I think Oats is town and I he's convinced me that sidesprang is the better lynch for today. I also feel like trusting his meta read on Coag.
I also buy the 'sidesprang's reasons are all bad' argument as when sidesprang was town he actually had some decent arguments on why someone is scummy. This game it's all meta reads and kind-of vote analysis.
##unvote
##vote Sidesprang Given her past comments on Coag she could have very easily just let the Coag lynch go through, but instead she pushed the lynch towards scum. I find it hard to believe this is a "bus my teammate and hope nobody follows" post either. Can you explain why you think Suki's actions regarding the day 2 lynch would serve a scum motivation? If I'm not mistaken the votes after she switched were: Coagulation ( 5 ) : LoneMeow, jaybrundage, Hopeless1der, sidesprang, Aquanim, Suki, Aquanim Sidesprang ( 3 ) : Oatsmaster, Coagulation, suki, Jaybrundage Oatsmaster ( 1 ) : Balla24, Aquanim So I don't see why she wouldn't bus for town cred. Note that she doesn't really do anything to push the lynch, just switches her vote. The way I see it: If we had mislynched Coagulation and then lynched sidesprang after that, it would look better for her to have been on the correct wagon. And it also distances her from sidesprang.
I'd forgotten Coag had already voted Sidesprang at that point, but that vote would probably be implicit in the thread situation.
Still though my feeling for the thread at that point was that Oats was getting no traction pushing the Sidesprang lynch, the thread was largely in the mindset of "let's just lynch Coag and get this day over with". Suki jumping on the Sidesprang wagon gave it momentum and more credibility as a counterwagon.
I guess it's possible maybe that Suki misjudged what the effect would be of her getting on Sidesprang. Still though... there were plenty of people on the Coag lynch to hide behind and just sheep to a mislynch.
|
On February 13 2014 16:17 LoneMeow wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2014 16:09 Aquanim wrote:On February 13 2014 16:00 LoneMeow wrote:On February 13 2014 15:51 Aquanim wrote:On February 13 2014 15:44 LoneMeow wrote:On February 13 2014 15:34 Aquanim wrote:
Who would be your next best guess ignoring Jay then? Hopeless1der or suki, pretty much equally suspicious of them right now. I'm finding it pretty hard to believe that a scum-Suki would make this post: On February 12 2014 00:25 suki wrote:
Hm...
Call it a hunch, but I'm going to go with Hopeless. I think Oats is town and I he's convinced me that sidesprang is the better lynch for today. I also feel like trusting his meta read on Coag.
I also buy the 'sidesprang's reasons are all bad' argument as when sidesprang was town he actually had some decent arguments on why someone is scummy. This game it's all meta reads and kind-of vote analysis.
##unvote
##vote Sidesprang Given her past comments on Coag she could have very easily just let the Coag lynch go through, but instead she pushed the lynch towards scum. I find it hard to believe this is a "bus my teammate and hope nobody follows" post either. Can you explain why you think Suki's actions regarding the day 2 lynch would serve a scum motivation? If I'm not mistaken the votes after she switched were: Coagulation ( 5 ) : LoneMeow, jaybrundage, Hopeless1der, sidesprang, Aquanim, Suki, Aquanim Sidesprang ( 3 ) : Oatsmaster, Coagulation, suki, Jaybrundage Oatsmaster ( 1 ) : Balla24, Aquanim So I don't see why she wouldn't bus for town cred. Note that she doesn't really do anything to push the lynch, just switches her vote. The way I see it: If we had mislynched Coagulation and then lynched sidesprang after that, it would look better for her to have been on the correct wagon. And it also distances her from sidesprang. I'd forgotten Coag had already voted Sidesprang at that point, but that vote would probably be implicit in the thread situation. Still though my feeling for the thread at that point was that Oats was getting no traction pushing the Sidesprang lynch, the thread was largely in the mindset of "let's just lynch Coag and get this day over with". Suki jumping on the Sidesprang wagon gave it momentum and more credibility as a counterwagon. I guess it's possible maybe that Suki misjudged what the effect would be of her getting on Sidesprang. Still though... there were plenty of people on the Coag lynch to hide behind and just sheep to a mislynch. Are you aware of suki's scum meta? I hosted NMM LI - after that I'm extremely wary of her bussing teammates... I'm more like thinking suki did not expect Balla24 to jump on sidesprang and start seriously pushing the vote - that's what got sidesprang lynched, far more than suki herself switching. This is basically Balla24's suspicions before suki went on sidesprang: Show nested quote +On February 10 2014 12:39 Balla24 wrote:
I don't want to hard push Oats yet, but there is a case to be had in the near future, I want to see other people stuff first. Like hopeless' promised answers to my question, and stuff from coag and sidesprang.
I'm vaguely aware of her scum meta - I'll take a hard look at LI and see if I can see it matching here.
|
still digesting LI, but here's a thought:
After voting sidesprang and answering a question I had about a town read on Oats, suki posted nothing between then and the lynch, but was clearly present for at least some of that time since she posted just after it:
On February 12 2014 07:06 suki wrote:Yay guys   I think Day 2 went well for us. Everybody contributed. We should be able to root out the last scum from this.
I hadn't quite realised that before now. And I definitely think there were things worth talking about in the thread.
|
So having read LI I have this observation to make about Suki's scum meta: she is not afraid to analyse the thread with some accuracy, to give out townreads to townies, and to call out her scumbuddies for doing scummy things.
...I could just about see this game as being her scumgame. I think it would be a slightly better scumgame than LI, but not an impossible improvement.
|
@suki: Why do you think you are the top scum suspect when there are currently zero votes for you?
|
On February 13 2014 17:30 suki wrote:
Like, look at where I am right now, top scum suspect.
|
Yeah, I think I'm ok with this now.
##Vote: Suki
|
On February 14 2014 12:01 suki wrote:
LoneMeow I think is scummy. If LoneMeow isn't scum I really don't know cuz everyone else looks town to me. LoneMeow hasn't stuck his neck out, conveniently hasn't read anybody as town. Has thrown suspicion on everyone today except Oats. In day 1 and 2 he sort of lingered in the background and didn't have any effect on the lynches.
Can you explain to me the distinction you draw between "throwing suspicion on everyone" and "considering all of the possibilities for the last scum"?
|
'morning.
K, lemme think about this one last time.
|
My problem with using reads Suki's brought up like "who's boxed themselves into a corner today re. their scumreads" and "I've never hard tunneled as scum" is that clearly Suki knows these tells and is quite possibly playing around them.
There are a couple of things about Suki's posting today which have struck me as quite scummy:
1) When she returned to the thread on Page 79, at this point suspicion of her is as follows:
- LoneMeow and Hopeless have her as a primary scum suspect, but she has a scumread on both of them
- Oats and I have just started to re-question her alignment, but no serious suspicion has been levelled as yet
- iirc Jay had her pretty high on the list, too
So there's some questioning of her alignment, but no votes have actually been made at this point. Furthermore, from her perspective if she's town LM and Hopeless' suspicions should carry less weight since she thinks at least one of them is scum.
And yet, I still get the impression that she's like a deer caught in the headlights, and... well... desperate for thread attention to go somewhere else:
Honestly right now I'm just really confused. I'm looking at Hopeless, Coag and LoneMeow and I just can't seem to latch on to anything that's hard evidence that they're scum. The more I think, the more things that I dig up that make me think that it could only come from them if they're town.
Well except LoneMeow, he always plays this super careful game. Last game I totally thought he was scum even though he was town, this game I get the same feeling.
Overall though, LoneMeow is still the most likely scum to me. I just don't see what he's done that makes him town.
Seriously guys, look at LoneMeow.
2) This post:
On February 14 2014 01:58 suki wrote:
More on LoneMeow. This time, his interactions with Sidesprang.
Looking now, I noticed that LoneMeow was actually soft-defending Sidesprang.
Now there's two problems with this post for me. The first one is this statement about her own play made a bit later:
Soft defending scum, even your own scum read, is not scummy. Town does not know scum alignments so obviously they're going to try to look at things from all directions.
So why is LM scummy for soft-defending Sidesprang?
And the second:
The post above implies that Suki only just now noticed that LM was soft-defending Sidesprang, but a while earlier she wrote:
On February 13 2014 10:04 suki wrote:Jay having a really solid answer to why he chose who he chose seems town... Also the fact that he is not panicking at all or overreacting. Hopeless' play has been much different. Also the fact that he's given himself no outs is really .. kamikaze as scum? I don't know.. ##unvote
##vote LoneMeowI made a case against LoneMeow during N2. I want more people to look at it and consider LoneMeow being scum. The summary from the case: 1. He comes into the game really late. 2. He starts off the game with only Jonny being scummy to him, yet doesn't further analyze Jonny throughout the day or try to convince people Jonny's scummy. 3. He is fifth to vote Jonny. 4. He soft defended sidesprang and was reluctant to vote him.5. Basically he did nothing this game that really furthered the lynches on the two flipped scum. I'd like to hear opinions on LoneMeow in addition to the commentary that's obviously going to happen about Jay and Hopeless.
Which is itself an extract from an earlier case. (See the emphasied part.)
Forgetting your own cases on your scumreads isn't something I'd expect from a townie.
|
Am I seriously the only person here for the lynch?
|
gg suki, whichever way this flips
|
|
|
On February 15 2014 07:54 Coagulation wrote:
gj guys
yeah well thanks for your help coag, without your sterling contribution there is no way we could ever catch the last scum
/s
|
what's the matter, cat got your tongue? or is that just your one mandated post for the nightphase to avoid a modkill
|
funnier shit when you're completely and utterly wrong
|
see I'd be happy to engage in something other than name-calling Coag but you just don't ever seem to be interested
|
|
|
On February 15 2014 13:48 jaybrundage wrote:
Oatsmaster can you Vig LM then?
come on, Oats doesn't forget he's a power role *that* often 
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
