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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
Reading his filter again, it's still marginal but I think there was a significant amount more thought going into his posts in the newbie, rather than just summarising the thread (which more accurately describes here). Can't say I'm hugely confident in this one but ##Unvote ##Vote: Sidesprang | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
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Aquanim
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guess I'm stuck with coag gnawing on my ankles for the rest of this game | ||
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Aquanim
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1. 2. 3. 5. LoneMeow 6. Jaybrundage 7. Hopeless1der 8. 10. | ||
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Aquanim
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I think it's highly unlikely - but more likely than Oats or Suki going all-in on Sidesprang like they did. | ||
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Aquanim
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On February 12 2014 07:13 Balla24 wrote: LoneMeow hammered sidesprang... I'm not particularly enamoured with the concept of hammering in a non-IML game, a scum LoneMeow could have seen which way the wind was blowing and jumped on early. The Coag wagon was looking fairly implausible at that point. It decreases the likelihood that he's scum but it's not even nearly the same level of certainty as the other names I crossed off the list. | ||
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Aquanim
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I can understand y'all have reason to be suspicious though. | ||
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Aquanim
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On February 12 2014 07:20 Balla24 wrote: I like that you're saying this stuff about me but you bussing Jonny is much much more conceivable. You defended him against my early case, then after my second large post about him you finally make your case. I was voting for Jonny before you for what that's worth. I disagreed with some of the points in your earlier case - but between being unimpressed with his reply to your case and reasons of my own I thought he was scum on those grounds. | ||
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Aquanim
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On February 12 2014 07:28 Balla24 wrote: We're looking at a day5 LYLO with 2 mislynches until then. Looks good to me for us. Especially since Coag is no longer a question mark :D Yeah, but if he comes after me until doomsday we still lose at LYLO. | ||
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Aquanim
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Aquanim
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On February 12 2014 07:38 Balla24 wrote: Why did you even put yourself on that list lol... that bugs me so bad when people put themselves on lists to call themselves town. Whimsy. Normally I wouldn't but it seemed appropriate in this case. | ||
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Aquanim
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Aquanim
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On February 12 2014 07:43 Balla24 wrote: Who's your highest priority target atm? By process of elimination, Hopeless1der. Having basically eliminated everyone but him, LM and JayB from the running, he's the one who's given me the least reason to think he's town to date. The other two are on the table though. | ||
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Aquanim
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On February 12 2014 07:47 Hopeless1der wrote: well i guess i'll go get my hat Who do you think is the last scum, hopeless? | ||
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Aquanim
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On February 12 2014 07:58 Hopeless1der wrote: out of your list jb Do you agree that scum is incredibly unlikely to be outside that list? (the list plus me, if you feel that way) | ||
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Aquanim
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On February 12 2014 08:04 Hopeless1der wrote: i kinda still like suki for scum because of her meta-reading of sidesprang being so out to lunch. Which meta-read are you referring to? I think she referenced Sidesprang's meta a couple of times. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On February 12 2014 12:35 Oatsmaster wrote: meh actually I think aqua looks a lot worse now that I think about it. He only switched when the rest of the thread switched and pretty much hard defended sidesprang and attacked coag without bothering to look at his past games although I didnt post them but he still couldve put in the effort. yeah ok. ...I did look at Coag's past games. And indeed, in the ones I found your meta read did more-or-less check out. However, I had reason to doubt the applicability of all of the scum games I found. I didn't think the meta from Aperture was reliable because it was a clusterfuck of a game which would have been very hard to catch up on, and he replaced in on like page 110. Hence, him not posting anything useful was to be expected. I didn't think the meta from LXIV was reliable because he could have quite easily discussed anything useful he wanted to do in PMs. Hence, him not posting anything useful in the thread was to be expected. The only other scum games of his that I could find in the database were from 2011 or earlier and I didn't think they would be very useful on those grounds. In fact, I think I've been over this before: On February 11 2014 18:04 Aquanim wrote: Can you suggest one? LXIV is a PM game so his posts in the thread are basically irrelevant, Aperture he substituted in on page 110 and was hopelessly lost or something (it was some stupid theme game anyway so I'm not keen on meta from it) and every other one of his scum games I can find is like 3 years old (again, basically irrelevant re. meta). I can't find any others but I haven't done a truly exhaustive search of games since the last database update. Later on somebody linked LoL PYP (which I hadn't found, since it isn't in the database and I didn't check every game for the last three months) and I thought that game was more reliable as a reference for his scum-meta - since it indeed had him doing sweet fuck all, even less than what I saw in his towngames or what he was doing here, I obtained a townread on Coag on that basis. Which I've also said: On February 12 2014 06:28 Aquanim wrote: You're hilarious Coag. Also, you disgust me... but the fact you're posting anything game-relevant at all is apparently a town-tell. (Much happier with the scum-meta from the PYP LoL game than the others I found.) Imma go take a quick look at Sidesprang again. | ||
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Aquanim
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On February 12 2014 14:40 Oatsmaster wrote: Yeah yeah thats fine and all, ignore the not looking at coag's meta. But that switch was so late and so useless. And it seems like such a small thing to change your mind so drastically from when you totally refused to entertain the idea that sidesprang was scum. I point out a lotta specific points and it comes down to a general meta read that isnt very detailed that makes you pretty much 180? Especially since it was 5/4 in coag's favor so you didnt even need to change. Sidesprang was on my list of possible scum at the start of the day and nothing he did during the day changed that. You're mistaking my doubts of the specific points you raised against Sidesprang for a townread on him. At least part of my motivation for that exchange and pressuring you over your points was to test whether you yourself were just bullshitting or you were genuine about that read - my vote for you was not in jest. Having slept for a while, when I came back to the thread and had a fresh think about it I decided you and Coag were probably town, which left me with my next-best scumread - Sidesprang. And the fact that my vote was technically unnecessary to lynch Sidesprang doesn't mean I shouldn't vote for my now-top scumread at the lynch. | ||
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Aquanim
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On February 12 2014 14:42 Oatsmaster wrote: Like go through your thought process from this post. to this post. Okay. My initial thought before that exchange was that you were likely scum since I didn't think you were pushing particularly hard for a Sidesprang lynch. My previous experience seeing you play as town is that you're more emotionally invested in the game. After we had that discussion I was entertaining the possibility that Sidesprang was scum, and thinking about whether I was more confident in that possibility or in the possibility that you were scum. About then Suki wandered into the thread and said something about her town-read on you, and a sentence or two about scum-reading Sidesprang: On February 12 2014 00:25 suki wrote: I also buy the 'sidesprang's reasons are all bad' argument as when sidesprang was town he actually had some decent arguments on why someone is scummy. This game it's all meta reads and kind-of vote analysis. This "clicked" for me as something which I might view as truly scum-indicative - namely, not drawing rational conclusions out of the thread. Points like "oh well he justified this vote, that makes him scum" don't really do much for me, since I can believe a townie might feel obligated to justify their votes no matter the circumstances. However, just posting observations rather than drawing conclusions is something I do think is reliably scum-indicative. I found the meta read difficult since Sidesprang's town game does tend towards reciting events in the thread as well, and he drew at least a few conclusions in this game, but I eventually decided there were a significantly larger amount of conclusions being drawn in his town filter than in his game here. Also, at some point someone posted Coag's LoL PYP filter, which gave me a reliable scum-meta of his to draw upon, leading to my town-read of him (as stated earlier). Upon rereading in the morning (it was 3am when I went to sleep and I was really tired so I didn't trust my judgement at that point), my scumread on Sidesprang overtook my reads on you (Oats) and Coag. Hence, the vote for Sidesprang. Since my reasons differed from yours I decided to make it clear why I was voting him. | ||
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Aquanim
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On February 12 2014 14:53 Oatsmaster wrote: maybe its unfortunate timing but it looks really bad. Yeah ok, I dont think this course of conversation is really all that useful. Why is hopeless scum I'm going to have to pass on this one for the time being, choosing between hopeless, LM and jayB is challenging me. My snap judgement at the time I said that was that I had more reasons to think LM and jayB were town but I'm starting to rethink that now. I'll get back to you. Before the end of the night at worst, hopefully sooner. | ||
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