EPT/in
Newbie Mini Mafia LII
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
/in | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
im not mafia gaiz, pls no lynch Also, don't we get a mod post on the innocent child? Or are there none. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 16 2014 13:29 Beneather wrote: That's something mafia say ! ##VOTE Lord Tolkien ##vote Beneather Which part? | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 16 2014 15:14 Beneather wrote: The part with " im not mafia gaiz, pls no lynch " seems scummy to me. In which case: are you mafia? Because using your logic, if you say yes you're mafia, and if you say no you aren't. Plus it was a joke post so if you want to take it at face value go ahead. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
1) Given the last of mod post, I'm going to assume that there isn't an innocent child. That also means we might not have other roles either. 2) On Amiko, he's (she's?) been helpful thus far at least in providing a spreadsheet copy for us to use. That being said, his post-role post is, as you guys noted, is kinda scummy. On February 16 2014 14:45 Amiko wrote:When I don't have information yet I like voting for non-active people. Right now that's theDragoon, n1k0, and OnceKing. But, I want to hold my vote for a little longer since the game just started. And it will be an implicit promise I will not be afk or lurking because I have to come back before the deadline to vote  I disagree with this point. There's no reason to lynch lurkers Day 1 where there's limited information for them to participate anyways. The later the game goes, the more valid an option it becomes. But right now this post was pretty incredibly unhelpful, even if I do appreciate the town read. That being said, for an opening post I'm not yet entirely convinced to bandwagon. I'd prefer a stronger case to be brought up. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 17 2014 06:14 Valenius wrote: So going off of this, The possible roles left are: Vanilla / Cop / Doctor / Roleblocker / Vigilante / Veteran Mafia Goon / Mafia Roleblocker / Mafia Godfather. I'd originally assumed when signing up it would be 3 Mafia (one of each role), with the remaining players split between the town roles randomly. Re-reading through the rules however, it reads to me as if there could be between 1 - 4 Mafia? Don't think there would be 4 mafia. That would be basically 1 mislynch and town loses. 1 mafia is too low threat and too easy for town. My guess is that it's more likely 2-3, probably trending towards 2. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 17 2014 06:23 Amiko wrote: Oh, two other points: (1) Game experience is already showing that it is something we can use to evaluate- (2) In reflection, I guess it would appear less scummy for my first post to be like everyone else and randomly vote without providing any information on myself. So, three questions: If I were mafia, why would I try to stand out? Did my post contribute more or less helpful than any of the other first day posts? I think my first post contributed to town, certainly more than the other meaningless d1 posts: 1- It identified my reasoning for how I would vote if I had no scumreads 2- It told you when to expect inactivity and when I would have no excuse for inactivity Also I disagree with Tolkein's comment re lynching idle players. The longer the game goes, the more information we have from active players. Between our copchecks and filters, the players who are talking will be easier to attack for our inconsistencies and our analysis. Silent players don't provide town with any information, and more importantly they won't scumhunt during the day. For your day 1 post: though it was long, it was fairly low-content like most of the other Day 1 posts, with the only outstanding quality of being long. Verbosity is not a redeeming quality in and of itself. I appreciate the extra info on yourself, but that wasn't necessary. We learned that: 1) you've read mafia threads before and this is your first mafia game on TL (aka like most of us, unnecessary I feel but that may just be me) 2) you claimed town (uninteresting) 3) when to expect your posts (somewhat useful, but unnecessary). Outside of that, you volunteered a town read on me for asking about the innocent child, and then advocated lynching idle players. I'm fine lynching idle players, it's a question of WHEN we lynch them. Day 1, it's a terrible idea due to limited information. You listed OneKing as an idle player and he actively contributed once he had a read, for instance. As the game progresses, then it becomes a very valid choice. As is, I would strongly recommend avoiding a Day 1 lurker lynch. The longer the game goes the better lynching lurkers becomes, but atm, no. So in general, there are reasons why it seems scummy. Not willing to condemn you based on that solely since it was one post, you did put up a decent defense and raised good points about Cavalinho. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 17 2014 06:38 Amiko wrote: edit: Also my bad mistake, my third question was What do you think the other posts d1 contributed? Basically, not really no. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 17 2014 07:56 Cavalinho wrote: Except he hasn't provided any actual reason as to why I'm scum aside from voting him after agreeing with OnceKing. At best, his entire line of rationale can be classified as OMGUS; even then, it isn't a good one, as he is trying to push what he perceives as the weakest line of reasoning against the people pushing him right now. He says voting is scummy, but outing reads is not. But then I call him on it and he says that voting isn't scummy and the fact that I think he's mafia after someone else posted all of the things I was already thinking of is scummy. But he already said that outing reads isn't scummy. His logic is unsound and it makes no sense whatsoever. What's actually kind of funny was that I was rethinking my stance after what you posted earlier, but he keeps trying to push back on me which, in turn, makes me go after him. His rationale was that you stated that you had originally pegged his post as scummy, but didn't post until after OnceKing made the initial case. Which, honestly, in the current Day 1 climate of no info is as decently sound as we'll get. Since we have to lynch someone (I don't think we can go for no lynchings), I'm fine lynching Amiko and, assuming we have a Cop, checking either you (most favorable) or OnceKing (I read him as townish, but just to make sure). How we move forward Day 2 depends on how Amiko reads and if we get a red read (which isn't reliable since Godfather, and we probably have a 33%-50% chance of that being the fake read we get, and we might not have a Cop), but unless something new comes up, that's my (newbie) analysis of what we should do. I may be painting a target on my back to get mafia-killed, but whatever. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
##vote Amiko Depending on the flip: 1) Die scum die 2) Sorry mang, but take one for the town | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 17 2014 08:33 Cavalinho wrote: Checking the more outspoken players such as you, me, Amiko, and OnceKing is a poor strategy. We can gather reads on each other by watching as we push our agendas throughout the game. Lurking players are a different matter entirely. Depending on what Amiko flips, we can get a relatively solid gauge on whats going on. Now, for the sake of argument, I'm going to walk through both scenarios. A) Amiko flips green or, heaven forbid, blue. 1: The mafia will most likely be hiding amongst the inactives since they had almost no pressure put on them throughout the first day. 2: Mafia started the lynch and cast suspicion on themselves. This is a possible scenario, but it's still unlikely that a cop check will solve the issue since the most likely candidate for pushing someone that is supposedly town would be the Godfather. B) Amiko flips red. 1: Mafia either defended him or bussed. Either way, mafia wouldn't be so outspoken on the first day trying to attract attention to themselves. 2: The people running the lynch should be almost confirmed town since mafia obviously wouldn't run one of their own guys into the ground so early. Either way, cop checks should be carried out on the uncertains lurking in the background rather than the most outspoken players. Hell, even if we don't lynch Amiko today, I wouldn't want a cop check to be carried out on him for the sake that we can rely on him talking more than the other 4 players or so not saying much of anything. I'm also putting a lot of emphasis on votelists because, even if we mislynch early, we can take a look at who's voting who and who is pushing what. If everyone on the chopping block for today's lynch is blue/green, we can look to the inactives as possible targets since no pressure was put on them throughout the day. There's still more than 24 hours left for today's votes. Don't forget that. We have all the time in the world. I'm not even 100% on the Amiko lynch yet, so I might take my vote down just so we can get more reads. Fair enough, and that sounds about right. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
I'm leaning towards there being 2 mafia, but it's also possible that there's 3 (highly unlikely I think given only 9 players, but possible?). We'll see. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 17 2014 08:47 OnceKing wrote: What? Of course it matters man. Who do you think is scum? Given the current information set I have (which is limited): Amiko: moderately leaning scum, not entirely convinced but very possible and the most "scummy" looking we have atm OnceKing: Leaning town or leaning Godfather at this point, I'd say the former, but the latter is certainly possible; does depend on how Amiko flips Cavalinho: Also depends on how Amiko flips, either slight scum or moderate town; his current posts have me fairly slanted towards the latter Me: obv town. If I were blue, it would only be Veteran because I can take a hit; otherwise, why would I risk my neck Day 1. You could also read me red I suppose; it's also a possibility. Beneather: slightly scummy just for voting for me. i aint no mafia bish~ Everyone else are lurkers I can't get a read on. Beneather falls in this category too. Either blues or reds most likely. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 17 2014 09:16 Valenius wrote: Is that from experience, or a (logical) guess? Logical guess. 4 mafia means 1 mislynch=end game. That's ridiculous. 3 mafia means 2 mislynches=end game (since mafia kills someone during night). 3 mafia means 3 mislynches (and 2 night kills)=endgame | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 17 2014 09:31 Valenius wrote: I'd agree with this point for the most part. However, lynching a lurker would become the best option (in my eyes) if the next 27hrs of discussion don't lead to a solid read on a scum. I'd imagine it's easier to read someone's behaviours later on if they've already been posting. Any other major reads? Who's townish and who's scummy in your indication, and what are your thoughts about the current lynch case? | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
I'm going to miss that edit button so hard <_< | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 17 2014 09:58 Valenius wrote: Sure. Lord Tolkien: As in my last post, I agree (for the most part) with the lynching/no-lynching of lurkers. I don't see how that has any relevance to the actual game, it stands out to me as being an odd comment to use when discussing someone's posting. Amiko: 1. Suggesting to lynch lurkers, and then naming the lurkers 02:45 after the thread started was weird. You said "I want to hold my vote for a little longer since the game just started", but with 48-hour days if you're wanting to lynch lurkers you should be posting your list well into the second day. It add's absolutely nothing that early into Day 1.. my post was just saying I'm going to bed, that shouldn't be enough to get me off a lurker list. 2. Calling yourself town in your first post, again, seems off to me. If you're acting as town, people should form their own town opinion of you, which will be 100x stronger than a read formed by you claiming to be town in a first post. 3. I was going to add here about OneKing's criticism of the length of the post.. it's valid criticism, although in this case I feel like it's given some interesting talking points so i'll forgive it. Cavalinho: His (I presume?) explanation of only jumping on Amiko after the post by yourself was satisfactory to me, otherwise i'd be much more interested in the reasoning behind that.. Mafia Reads? Amiko / IAmRobik. Just a gut feeling on Robik. Town Reads? Lord Tolkein, and potentially OnceKing. No other strong reads yet. Also, you have to give me time to post.. The above post by me was posted before seeing your question (I went to make a coffee, and posted when I got back). I'm not a masssively quick poster, I like to go back and check, and recheck previous posts. Thank you for the reads. Looking back at that point of comment, it is indeed odd and I thank you for pointing it out. I blame lack of sleep. You don't have a strong read on Cavalinho I assume? | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 17 2014 12:00 theDragoon wrote: @Lord Tolkien: I just want to clarify what you mean by this post. What exactly was the risk you took and why would it be such a big risk that only a Veteran would take? I meant that if I were a blue. There's no reason for a cop or somesuch to be forward/active in Day 1, because it draws attention to themselves for a night kill from mafia. The only blue role (if I am a blue) that leads you to think I would be is a Veteran because I can soak a night shot. Assuming I'm not vanilla town or mafia, which are the other logical possibilities. I'm willing to bet the same thing generally with OnceKing, and probably Caval as well. Green, veteran, or mafia are the likely choices. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 17 2014 13:49 Beneather wrote: ##UNVOTE As of right now I don't think Lord Tolkien is scum. However this post, makes it seem he just wants to end the day with a lynch on Amiko without any further discussion. His mind is made up it seems and does not want to pressure any other players. Ending the day on a lynch on Amiko, at the time of posting, would've revealed enough info on Day 2 for us (and me) to start going on, given the two who were initially in on it, depending on which way he flipped. If green, there's reasonable suspicion cast upon OnceKing and Cavalinho. In the off-chance he was red, well, we again know. I wasn't entirely convinced he was scum, but he was the "scummiest" read I had from the limited set of posts (and I wasn't willing to vote on him initially, if you read my filter), and remains so unless a new case is brought up. [quote\ On February 17 2014 12:28 Lord Tolkien wrote: I meant that if I were a blue. There's no reason for a cop or somesuch to be forward/active in Day 1, because it draws attention to themselves for a night kill from mafia. The only blue role (if I am a blue) that leads you to think I would be is a Veteran because I can soak a night shot. Assuming I'm not vanilla town or mafia, which are the other logical possibilities. I'm willing to bet the same thing generally with OnceKing, and probably Caval as well. Green, veteran, or mafia are the likely choices. Let's say we don't lynch Amiko on this day, and Tolkien would be killed on the night or is actually a veteran and takes a shot. That would mean Amiko would be scum, since Tolkien is pushing for an Amiko lynch on d1. I still do not understand why Tolkien feels that Amiko is scummy. Right now I don't have any good reads on anyone and I will do some further reading, sorry for the absence, will report later with more analysis.[/QUOTE] I'm not going to speculate on night actions at this point of time yet, as there are too many variables to account for outside of a mafia kill. But if you guys would like, bring up a case against me. I'd like to see why people thing I'm scummy so I can rebut them. QUOTE]On February 17 2014 13:12 OnceKing wrote: re: Amiko I actually agree with you regarding your points on Cavalinho and Lord Tolkien. More specifically I feel that they've both jumped onto the wagon I'm pushing onto you without contributing anything themselves: Cavalinho just said I beat him to it and Lord Tolkien, well... Going through his filter here's what Lord Tolkien's got: - random soft defense of you from before our roles came out - says he's unconvinced that Amiko is scum, then votes for him saying his vote doesn't matter (???)* - quoted a Cavalinho hypothetical scenario breakdown and just said he agreed with it without adding anything - takes no sides -- I'm either "town or Godfather", Cavalinho is "slight scum" or "moderate town", Beneather being slightly scum for voting him (???) - speculates on setup (meh) - focuses an awful lot on Godfather/NKs *Yes, your vote always matters. If you're town then this is your weapon. The only thing is that he's been posting a lot which I appreciate but I just don't see anything original coming out of him, and here's a disconcerting post...[/quote] Responding to you an Amiko at the same time: 1) I've outlined why I decided to vote for the lynch, and why, given the limited information set, a lynch on Amiko would've been fine for me going into Day 2. While there was a soft defense, I do state that it was still a scummy post, even if I wasn't going to commit immediately. This is why I stated that, while I'm wasn't entirely convinced about Amiko being red, I was willing to go with a lynch on him. It would reveal information about OnceKing and Cavalinho depending on which way he flipped. 2) I posted a clarification to it in the possible case that Amiko turns up green, immediately after the agreement. 3) Given the limited number of posts, there was not much to go on besides your initiation of the lynch on Amiko, his responses and back-and-forth with Cavalinho. Therefore, my reads on you and Cavalinho, if the lynch had gone through, would've been based on the flip. That the whole point of it all. 4) The scummy read on Beneather is a joke. I'm fairly certain I made that clear, as I write jokes differently. slightly scummy just for voting for me. i aint no mafia bish~ Note the lack of capitalization. compared to the rest of the post. And the ~. And bish. You're really trying for the dregs here. On February 17 2014 08:14 Lord Tolkien wrote: Since we have to lynch someone (I don't think we can go for no lynchings), I'm fine lynching Amiko and, assuming we have a Cop, checking either you (most favorable) or OnceKing (I read him as townish, but just to make sure). How we move forward Day 2 depends on how Amiko reads and if we get a red read (which isn't reliable since Godfather, and we probably have a 33%-50% chance of that being the fake read we get, and we might not have a Cop), but unless something new comes up, that's my (newbie) analysis of what we should do. Yeah, we're all newbies here. Why bring it up? I reiterate, who CARES how much experience we do or don't have? Presumably we've all read guides or bits and pieces of other games or something else -- why should you want to detract from your own analysis unless you're trying to hide? [/QUOTE] Why the fuck are you focusing on one word in the entire analysis OUTLINING EXACTLY WHY I WAS FOR THE LYNCH YOU INITIATED (and then have the audacity try to question why I would vote for him despite being entirely sold in later posts)? If I had removed (newbie), would that change anything about the damn post about all? So why the hell are you tunnel visioning on this? Stop being an irrelevant nitpick. FFS. | ||
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