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On February 18 2014 09:38 N1k0 wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On February 18 2014 09:10 Lord Tolkien wrote:Fine. For you cal, I'll do one last analysis of it, and be extra critical of his post. Show nested quote +On February 18 2014 02:54 N1k0 wrote:
Amiko
He's more likely to be town than maf, in the case hes red hes more likley to be Godfather than Roleblocker or Goon( tho i dont think theres any roleblockers since we are only 9 players) so i wouldnt waste an investigation on him since him being a Goon is the less likely scenario.
Why do i think he likely to be the Godfather in the scenario he is mafia? because of him trying to drive the conversation at the start of the day and then fading away. That being said i feel hes more likely to be town because of the fact that he hasn't been trying to deflect the threats he has received, but instead he been posting with the interest of town in his mind instead of trying to save himself. I addressed this before: his initial post is not enough to condemn him as godfather, and he didn't "fade away". It can be construed as scummy yes, but the other conclusions aren't the best. He was indeed deflecting the threats at the time of his case opening, and attempting to explain his reasoning. Show nested quote +Cavalinho
At the moment i feel like hes the most likely to be a red since his fast jump on OnceKing's accusation of Amiko, i feel like he saw an opportunity to get some traction behind a lynch early and jumped on it. In the case Cavalinho ends up being red that would probably mean OnceKing is town since i dont think they would both vote so quickly on the same target if they both were mafia. Your argument is mostly just about his bandwagoning. Is there any other reason you're voting him over, say, me? I would like an explanation. Show nested quote +Lord Tolkien
I dont really know what to think, hes trying hard to get someone lynched and as soon as he saw the case against Amiko losing traction he switched his stance and went against OnceKing. He's seems to be pushing for any lynch as long as its one that would have an important effect on the lynch on d2 which i feel worried about since we dont really know how many mafia there are and getting a townie (or even a blue) lynched against 3 reds would put us on a hard position. Ultimately i'm leaning to think hes town since he appears to be ok with him getting lynched as long as it results in a lynch of OnceKing on d2 who he believes to be mafia (tho he could be bluffing). My issue with this underlined section is that I swapped my stance against OnceKing after he swapped over to me, I think that's pretty clear. I already stated I was unsure if he was just pointing fingers and just letting town tear themselves apart with no firm commitment himself as a godfather, or just a townie who's just directing town attention instead of actively participating with definitive reads and reasoning, and it was solidified after the random move onto me (and indicated as such before he pushed onto me). You are correct: I'm looking for a lynch on Day 1 that will have the most impact for town in Day 2, given the unlikelihood of us actually lynching scum. If I'm that lynch, so be it, I'm fine with it. Based on your analysis, the extrapolation is that we should be lynching me Day 1, so we can get a clear picture of OnceKing and lynch him, or progress onto Cal Day 2 if I ended up turning red. Show nested quote +OnceKing
I feel like he is the less likely to be scum because of his being the first to throw a stone at someone, which could of getting him a lot of attention on him. If Lord Tolkien ends up being green or blue it would probably raise my suspicions of him but for the moment i really feel like hes town.
In the possible scenario that im wrong and he ends up being mafia that would probably mean there where 3 reds (instead of the more likely 2 because of being 9 players) since if there where only 2 it would be less likely for one of them to throw the first accusation at someone. I still don't buy this, as being the first one to throw the stone, and then not really committing to the case, is just as readily done by a godfather looking to misdirect town attention; first onto Amiko, and then about-face onto me, after I gave my read about him either being town or possibly godfather. If I ended up green or blue, no suspicion would've been cast onto him if I wasn't being so vocal about a double-lynch (or vig shot at night if I turned up green). He was directly pushing hard onto me until I brought that up; now he's just referencing it in passing instead of actively pushing a case (like Amiko, again), and that I think is damning. His opinions are fairly unclear, and without strong reasoning involved thus far. But it again is just me, and people don't believe me. I also don't see why there needs to be three mafia with him being the first one to throw an accusation. That's a needless extrapolation. Show nested quote +For the momment im gonna go with the
##vote Cavalinho
but i'm not too confident on it Very indecisive, potential for yourself to pull it out later and say you weren't sure. Personally, I take it scummy; indecisive votes are my pet peeve. Decide on a vote and be decisive about it. I'll open this up as a possible valid avenue of lynch and be willing to move my vote to him if everyone else decides upon it, but there's very little time and I'm expecting Cav or me (currently it appears to beCav) to be lynched. I'll try to respond to the doubts you have but ill be brief since im heading out First about Amiko, i started feeling him to be a red but as the day went on this suspicion went lower and lower, currently i believe him to be town, the reason i think that if he is red he's likely to be godfather is that since he tried to start the conversation which would most likely bring attention to himself which if he were red would make him vulnerable to not only getting lynched but also an investigation (which would not be a problem if he were godfather), but as i said i feel he is more likely to be town that mafia at the moment. Why Cavalinho and not you, Cavalinho seems way more defensive than you do, and you argue with the town in mind instead of trying to save your own ass, even saying that what good could actually come out of your lynch (tho you could be a really good bluffer), plus i feel like Cavalinho jumped way too fast behind OnceKing's acusation of Amiko, 10 minutes after OnceKing's post looks like he saw an opportunity to get traction behind someone and jumped on it before it could fade away. I agree with you that my indecisive vote is a really scummy thing to do, but i was just being honest about it, i am not sure of his mafianess but i feel like he is the most likely one to be at the time. Im heading out now, but ill try to come back before the end of the cycle.
Thank you for the response. That clears up most of my lingering doubts, and all the clarification I needed.
In the future, justify your vote more prominently (I should've done the same when I voted for Amiko).
Again, your lynch doesn't accomplish anything at this juncture.
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On February 18 2014 09:45 theDragoon wrote:Show nested quote +I still don't see why commenting on roles is a bad thing for town (mafia will be doing it anyways in their QT) The bolded part I think is a slip and is probably the biggest tell for a scum Lord Tolkien. ##Vote Lord Tolkien
...what. How the fuck is that a slip?
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I mean, go ahead and vote for me, just lynch OnceKing after.
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What happens in the case of a tie in voting, as this is plurality?
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On February 18 2014 11:18 IAmRobik wrote:
Why Cavalinho if he's tied with n1k0 and Tolkien?
On February 18 2014 10:54 Promethelax wrote:
the player who reaches the highest number of votes first is lynched
It's strange, but I suppose to prevent a "no lynch" situation.
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Read above Amiko. :o
IAmRobik's also voted for him.
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Neither do I, and it depends on how he flips, or if people do last-minute vote changes.
I do have new suspicions based on vote justifications thus far (depends on how cav falls), but if the latter does happen, take the convo I and Caval had and try to organize a scumhunting system.
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On February 18 2014 11:46 OnceKing wrote:
Err... how is it a slip for LT to say that scum are probably discussing something on their QT? I see it as speculation at worst, I mean it's stated in the OP that scum have their own QT lol.
Care to elaborate, theDragoon?
Yeah, that's mostly what I was alluding to in my prior post. There are better reasons to lynch me than that (and argued to death), and you can put a far more compelling case. It's not the lynching vote I object to, it's the justification for the vote.
Re: expanded read analysis of everyone
There's no purpose towards me making a list of everyone and saying what I think of them. Is this what you're asking for LT? I mean, what does it add to discussion if I say I don't know what to think of Beneather, for example? You would learn basically nothing if I only say things that are very moderate, so I post only my strongest reads -- who I think is probably mafia, and who I think is most clearly town.
That is fair. That being said, I would like to hear far more of your own opinion, and to elaborate on your strongest reads.
Right now my "definitely town" list is myself, Amiko and theDragoon.
Obviously, your definitely town list includes yourself, and you have previously noted why you think Amiko is town, but why theDragoon?
That being said, I just realized you previously made the comment about N1k0's indecisive vote before I did.
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And crap.
Time to reread everything.
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On February 18 2014 12:21 Cavalinho wrote:
Wait, why is N1k0 alive and why am I dead? We have the same number of votes.
As do we, but it's based on time. First person to get the most, even if tied, is lynched apparently.
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On February 18 2014 12:22 Cavalinho wrote:
Oh, nevermind, I see it.
Well, goodbye. I'm going to be very angry at the lot of you when this game is done.
Enjoy the spectator QT (I'm fairly certain there is one).
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I think at least we should agree to put an end to the OMGUS'ing, and adopt a formal system of lynching. We've got 24 hours, so we can definitely get it organized before tomorrow.
If you think someone's mafia (or is worth investigating), put it up for a vote. After another player seconds, and we all collectively examine that person's filter, The person making the claim presents his case, the defendant presents his rebuttal, everyone gets to ask questions. Closing the case for the day can be done after there are no more questions, and after (say, 3-4 votes).
We can keep multiple cases open at once, as well, perhaps.
Any objections, or amendments to make?
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I would also suggest re-reading Cav's filter and debate what he says in it, and see what we can extrapolate (let's not talk about it until Day and night actions are being conducted).
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On February 18 2014 12:40 IAmRobik wrote:
I disagree Tolkien
What do you disagree about?
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On February 18 2014 12:48 IAmRobik wrote:
Having people go in a strict order is super scummy and an easy way for mafia to control the way the game goes.
Alright, I can see what you mean by that. I'll drop the suggestion.
On February 18 2014 12:49 IAmRobik wrote:
Also, there were no n0 actions and calavinho wasn't a town power role, so there's no real reason to delve deep into what he said other than if you want to create mislynches...I say this knowing that I'm town and he thought I was leaning scummy, so I know his reads aren't spot on.
So you're saying we can't learn anything from them? There are issues with his filter, in that his posts are greatly focused on Amiko in particular, until his relatively unreasoned n1k0 switch.
We can talk about it tomorrow after we have more information due to night actions, but it shouldn't be salvageable.
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I'm going to post my analysis which I was mulling over the night phase in the next few hours: it hasn't been overtly affected by Robik's death, though town is much poorer for it.
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The first section is written based on pre-night action analysis. I was planning on posting it like 1 minute before night ended in case I was killed, but I figured that due to Day 1 shenanigans, that it was highly unlikely that it would happen. Also could only use my phone at the time.
Regarding your analysis Amiko, you left out that I also could have saved Cavalinho as well.
My four options at the time were:
1) Switch onto Cavalinho (fairly pointless as he was going to die)
2) Vote for myself (if I felt that the lynch on Cavalinho and N1k0 were unwarranted enough, and that I really did feel OnceKing was scum)
3) Vote for N1K0
4) Maintain my effective non-vote
My read on Cavalinho was trending towards scummy because of his close-to-lynch posts and other things I’ve noted. N1k0 did have discrepancies in his first post, but I maintain my policy that it’s still better not to lynch lurkers until Day 2, and I was less sure of Cavalinho’s green flip then N1k0 at the time. The case was brought up near the end of Day 1, and we wouldn’t have much to go on if it was just a green flip: then we would very likely lynch Cavalinho because of it, and we’d be down 2 players.
NIGHT 1 READS
On Lurkers
At this stage, I feel both Valenius is the “scummiest” lurkers and most likely to be mafia out of the pool. He voted IAmRobik, when no real case was brought up against him unlike against myself or Cavalinho (or switch on N1k0’s late case), and is really just a random OMGUS vote. It really reads inconsistent here, since he didn’t vote Cavalinho when it was brought up (stating he can’t read me or Amiko). Beneather raised the point with his vote, and I would have a look at the filter. I’m opening his case up as a lynch target come Day 2, and I feel much better about bringing up a case against him than against N1K0 at this time.
N1k0’s case is out there, and I’m not commenting on it further, as I don’t think the situation has changed all that much, despite Cavalinho’s green flip. While it's compelling to pursue further, it's not enough for a case I feel.
theDragoon’s vote reads as a confused town; still reads town, but the vote justification was WTF?
Beneather similarly reads town to me despite his sparse posts, and IAmRobik reads super town to me now, especially considering his night posts (and steering me away from some potentially disastrous suggestions).
On Day 1Active Participants
At this stage, I don’t think at this stage any of us are mafia, unless the GF has done a masterful job blending in, and likely won. I’ll explain below.
I’m dropping the case on OnceKing with his posts and convo with me close to the end of the Day 1 phase, now that I've had time to mull them over from a less heated standpoint. The issue I had which made me jump on him and view him as scum were the multiple minor details he was bringing up in his initial case on me; it felt like grasping for straws, so to speak. I am still going to be critical of his posts for inconsistencies and when his posts are far too aggressive like that. I’m also withdrawing the double lynch proposal, because it’s too dangerous now in Day 2 in the POSSIBILITY there are 3 mafia members (doubt it, but even with 2 it gives far too little margin of error), in conjunction with my change of read on him.
To explain my change and initial read of "moderate town or godfather (I think?)": I was jaded by a past experience of an active mafia member gunning for me and others Day 1 based on meaningless “tells” (I ended up getting him with a double lynch proposal, with him lynched first, but since there was no flips in the setup, I got lynched next turn and mafia won because I forgot that there was the possibility of a second one, so the gambit failed). This is incidentally why theDragoon’s vote justification confused me. I’m still going to be more critical of cases you bring up for now on, but I’m now fairly certain you’re town.
IAmRobik currently speaks town talk. He corrected my Night 1 mistakes quickly and decisively, and nipped them from going further and clogging up discussion (this is my first online mafia, so I wasn’t sure how to proceed at Night). And since he started contributing, he's contributed fairly well, and gave honest reads, even with some scant justification at times. This is why I think bringing up lurkers as lynch targets very early was questionable policy.
Amiko, despite his mislynch case on Cavalinho, still feels town, as the premature analysis he posted was solid for a preliminary post, and it stands as a definite contribution to town for us to further analyze vote patterns against reads. He reads fairly solidly town to me.
Appended section based on Night Actions
I am slightly surprised that they didn’t decide to kill OnceKing. It would be a clear way to implicate me, as I am currently most peoples’ scummiest read (or perhaps it’s too obvious), but the way IAmRobik was trending, he was shaping to be a strong town. Alternately, they could’ve done the same with me since I didn’t call off the double-lynch beforehand, but that would be eliminating a potential Day 2 lynch target entirely.
The frustrating part is that I don’t think it gives us much to go on. Both of the votes on N1k0 are dead, but it might just be mafia exploiting the situation to get a mislynch going.
Robik’s night posts were drawn out by my own and Amiko’s posts, however, so we are both culpable here (though he did start shaping up to be someone who was actively shaping discussion away from continued Day 1 shenanigans). I don’t think Amiko was baiting IAmRobik into posting further during night, given the length of his post suggests he was writing it before he saw my and Robik’s exchange. In hindsight, I think I was the one doing that. It is entirely possible that one of us is mafia (if you take this line of approach, I should be more scummy because I threw the first stone, so to speak). The alternate possibility is that it was done to cast us in a negative light, and I will leave it up to you guys to weigh it yourselves, or think of other possibilities.
It may also be that Robik was onto good leads, but there’s not much we can say about that. The case on N1K0 is still valid.
I’m not sure what else we can draw from it.
Comments, criticisms? I'm putting together the Valenius case soon (tm).
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*and dangit, I missed some formatting. But still better then my first attempt at a comprehensive post. Those quotations murdered me <_<
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On Valenius:
1) His first relevant post to go off my quick note that we don't have an innocent child for an early town confirmation (while I was first stepping into Amiko's post), into a discussion about town roles that I participated in.
2) His first contribution when pushed for a read amounted to agreeing with me about not lynching lurkers early, and making a comment about me nothing Amiko's spreadsheet, nor contributed anything interesting of note on Amiko. The biggest point of note is why he thought IAmRobik was scum based on his 2 posts prior, the first was inconsequential, and the second directing us away from not to talk about role breakdown. It's an odd gut feeling to have based on his posts (I made the same comment with Cavalinho about his early suspicions of IAmRobik).
3) His next post of note is + Show Spoiler +Not particularly, although I'm unsure on the argument for not checking the active players. If some of the active players are in fact mafia, they could lead the game to a mafia win easier than I think the lurkers could. However, as with the lynching discussion, checking lurkers could be better due to getting better reads from those who are posting frequently.
4) I really do think he's just been too non-committal this phase, and his contributions have been far more negligible than other "lurkers", despite having more posts.
I would like comments and criticisms about this analysis. He's the scummiest I've got, and I figured I needed to raise the case. At the very least, to get him to be active.
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EPT
