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Alright, this is why I get annoyed by lack of editing. Put it reformatted below with a spoiler.
+ Show Spoiler +On February 17 2014 13:49 Beneather wrote:##UNVOTE As of right now I don't think Lord Tolkien is scum. However this post, Show nested quote +On February 17 2014 08:16 Lord Tolkien wrote:
I'm not entirely convinced that Amiko is red, but I don't think at this point it matters.
##vote Amiko
Depending on the flip:
1) Die scum die
2) Sorry mang, but take one for the town makes it seem he just wants to end the day with a lynch on Amiko without any further discussion. His mind is made up it seems and does not want to pressure any other players. Ending the day on a lynch on Amiko, at the time of posting, would've revealed enough info on Day 2 for us (and me) to start going on, given the two who were initially in on it, depending on which way he flipped. If green, there's reasonable suspicion cast upon OnceKing and Cavalinho. In the off-chance he was red, well, we again know. I wasn't entirely convinced he was scum, but he was the "scummiest" read I had from the limited set of posts (and I wasn't willing to vote on him initially, if you read my filter), and remains so unless a new case is brought up. Show nested quote +On February 17 2014 12:28 Lord Tolkien wrote:On February 17 2014 12:00 theDragoon wrote:@Lord Tolkien: Me: obv town. If I were blue, it would only be Veteran because I can take a hit; otherwise, why would I risk my neck Day 1. You could also read me red I suppose; it's also a possibility. I just want to clarify what you mean by this post. What exactly was the risk you took and why would it be such a big risk that only a Veteran would take? I meant that if I were a blue. There's no reason for a cop or somesuch to be forward/active in Day 1, because it draws attention to themselves for a night kill from mafia. The only blue role (if I am a blue) that leads you to think I would be is a Veteran because I can soak a night shot. Assuming I'm not vanilla town or mafia, which are the other logical possibilities. I'm willing to bet the same thing generally with OnceKing, and probably Caval as well. Green, veteran, or mafia are the likely choices. Let's say we don't lynch Amiko on this day, and Tolkien would be killed on the night or is actually a veteran and takes a shot. That would mean Amiko would be scum, since Tolkien is pushing for an Amiko lynch on d1. I still do not understand why Tolkien feels that Amiko is scummy. Right now I don't have any good reads on anyone and I will do some further reading, sorry for the absence, will report later with more analysis. I'm not going to speculate on night actions at this point of time yet, as there are too many variables to account for outside of a mafia kill. But if you guys would like, bring up a case against me. I'd like to see why people thing I'm scummy so I can rebut them. On February 17 2014 13:12 OnceKing wrote:
re: Amiko
I actually agree with you regarding your points on Cavalinho and Lord Tolkien. More specifically I feel that they've both jumped onto the wagon I'm pushing onto you without contributing anything themselves: Cavalinho just said I beat him to it and Lord Tolkien, well...
Going through his filter here's what Lord Tolkien's got:
- random soft defense of you from before our roles came out
- says he's unconvinced that Amiko is scum, then votes for him saying his vote doesn't matter (???)*
- quoted a Cavalinho hypothetical scenario breakdown and just said he agreed with it without adding anything
- takes no sides -- I'm either "town or Godfather", Cavalinho is "slight scum" or "moderate town", Beneather being slightly scum for voting him (???)
- speculates on setup (meh)
- focuses an awful lot on Godfather/NKs
*Yes, your vote always matters. If you're town then this is your weapon.
The only thing is that he's been posting a lot which I appreciate but I just don't see anything original coming out of him, and here's a disconcerting post... Responding to you an Amiko at the same time: 1) I've outlined why I decided to vote for the lynch, and why, given the limited information set, a lynch on Amiko would've been fine for me going into Day 2. While there was a soft defense, I do state that it was still a scummy post, even if I wasn't going to commit immediately. This is why I stated that, while I'm wasn't entirely convinced about Amiko being red, I was willing to go with a lynch on him. It would reveal information about OnceKing and Cavalinho depending on which way he flipped. 2) I posted a clarification to it in the possible case that Amiko turns up green, immediately after the agreement. 3) Given the limited number of posts, there was not much to go on besides your initiation of the lynch on Amiko, his responses and back-and-forth with Cavalinho. Therefore, my reads on you and Cavalinho, if the lynch had gone through, would've been based on the flip. That the whole point of it all. 4) The scummy read on Beneather is a joke. I'm fairly certain I made that clear, as I write jokes differently. slightly scummy just for voting for me. i aint no mafia bish~ Note the lack of capitalization. compared to the rest of the post. And the ~. And bish. You're really trying for the dregs here. Show nested quote +On February 17 2014 08:14 Lord Tolkien wrote:
Since we have to lynch someone (I don't think we can go for no lynchings), I'm fine lynching Amiko and, assuming we have a Cop, checking either you (most favorable) or OnceKing (I read him as townish, but just to make sure). How we move forward Day 2 depends on how Amiko reads and if we get a red read (which isn't reliable since Godfather, and we probably have a 33%-50% chance of that being the fake read we get, and we might not have a Cop), but unless something new comes up, that's my (newbie) analysis of what we should do. Yeah, we're all newbies here. Why bring it up? I reiterate, who CARES how much experience we do or don't have? Presumably we've all read guides or bits and pieces of other games or something else -- why should you want to detract from your own analysis unless you're trying to hide? Why the fuck are you focusing on one word in the entire analysis OUTLINING EXACTLY WHY I WAS FOR THE LYNCH YOU INITIATED (and then have the audacity try to question why I would vote for him despite being entirely sold in later posts)? If I had removed (newbie), would that change anything about the damn post about all? So why the hell are you tunnel visioning on this? Stop being an irrelevant nitpick. FFS.
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Alright, with a few new posts in the aftermath:
1) Cavalinho, why exactly do you think I'm scummy, or IAmRobik is scummy? I'd like to address the former, and the latter seems...confusing at best since his contributions have been minimal, and your random suspicions drawn right after his (joke) response to your joke response. His only posts have been:
On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote:
OnceKing,
That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience?
On February 17 2014 06:19 IAmRobik wrote:
Let's not talk about roles
There are maximum 3 maf
Neither of which, while relatively unhelpful, also point towards scum.
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Also, *despite not being entirely sold) for the last part of the long post that this is appended to.
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On February 17 2014 15:12 OnceKing wrote:
lol.
Great job so you supported me on the lynch I started, so what? The question isn't what you did but instead how you did it. You supported my lynch by... how again? Remind me because I can't recall you actually contributing anything except trying to throw doubt on the people who started the wagon while joining the wagon yourself.
The icing on the cake is now you say you're sold on the wagon when previously you were unconvinced, then you were voting him for dubious reasons -- now that you've been called on it you claim to have been solidly on it when a quick perusal of your filter shows that this is in fact not the case.
On February 17 2014 06:03 Lord Tolkien wrote:Alright, since we're apparently getting into srs bzns the opening of Day 1, 1) Given the last of mod post, I'm going to assume that there isn't an innocent child. That also means we might not have other roles either. 2) On Amiko, he's (she's?) been helpful thus far at least in providing a spreadsheet copy for us to use. That being said, his post-role post is, as you guys noted, is kinda scummy. Show nested quote +On February 16 2014 14:45 Amiko wrote:When I don't have information yet I like voting for non-active people. Right now that's theDragoon, n1k0, and OnceKing. But, I want to hold my vote for a little longer since the game just started. And it will be an implicit promise I will not be afk or lurking because I have to come back before the deadline to vote  I disagree with this point. There's no reason to lynch lurkers Day 1 where there's limited information for them to participate anyways. The later the game goes, the more valid an option it becomes. But right now this post was pretty incredibly unhelpful, even if I do appreciate the town read. That being said, for an opening post I'm not yet entirely convinced to bandwagon. I'd prefer a stronger case to be brought up.
Was my initial response to the opening of the case.
This was my other response directly to Amiko:
On February 17 2014 06:56 Lord Tolkien wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2014 06:23 Amiko wrote:Oh, two other points: (1) Game experience is already showing that it is something we can use to evaluate- On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote:
OnceKing,
That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience? (2) In reflection, I guess it would appear less scummy for my first post to be like everyone else and randomly vote without providing any information on myself. So, three questions: If I were mafia, why would I try to stand out? Did my post contribute more or less helpful than any of the other first day posts? I think my first post contributed to town, certainly more than the other meaningless d1 posts: 1- It identified my reasoning for how I would vote if I had no scumreads 2- It told you when to expect inactivity and when I would have no excuse for inactivity Also I disagree with Tolkein's comment re lynching idle players. The longer the game goes, the more information we have from active players. Between our copchecks and filters, the players who are talking will be easier to attack for our inconsistencies and our analysis. Silent players don't provide town with any information, and more importantly they won't scumhunt during the day. For your day 1 post: though it was long, it was fairly low-content like most of the other Day 1 posts, with the only outstanding quality of being long. Verbosity is not a redeeming quality in and of itself. I appreciate the extra info on yourself, but that wasn't necessary. We learned that: 1) you've read mafia threads before and this is your first mafia game on TL (aka like most of us, unnecessary I feel but that may just be me) 2) you claimed town (uninteresting) 3) when to expect your posts (somewhat useful, but unnecessary). Outside of that, you volunteered a town read on me for asking about the innocent child, and then advocated lynching idle players. I'm fine lynching idle players, it's a question of WHEN we lynch them. Day 1, it's a terrible idea due to limited information. You listed OneKing as an idle player and he actively contributed once he had a read, for instance. As the game progresses, then it becomes a very valid choice. As is, I would strongly recommend avoiding a Day 1 lurker lynch. The longer the game goes the better lynching lurkers becomes, but atm, no. So in general, there are reasons why it seems scummy. Not willing to condemn you based on that solely since it was one post, you did put up a decent defense and raised good points about Cavalinho.
And hey let's even ask what it means about me if Amiko gets lynched flips green. Spoilers: It means absolutely nothing! If I'm town, how do I have any definite knowledge of what he is? I don't, therefore I can only use the tools I have available to me which are logic and scumhunting, now being turned onto you.
It's entirely possible both of you are town, or that you, Amiko, and Cavalinho are also town. In which case, the lynch would've been unfortunate. But. given the way the case was going and the interactions involved, I'm betting at least one of you is mafia.
I'm still waiting on a cognizant case against me. If that's all it amounts to, cool. I'll let everyone else judge this.
Think IAmRobik's scummy, or anything? Make a case and vote him.
I don't think he's scummy, just lurking; however, Cavalinho does. There's a minimal amount of posts that suggest this, which is why I'm questioning him about it.
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On February 17 2014 15:37 theDragoon wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2014 12:46 Amiko wrote:
theDragoon & Valenius: I'm not sure. They have contributed a little but I don't have a read yet. I would like to ask both, if you were to pick someone other than me to lynch, who would you pick and why? If I am lynched and flip green, what will your thoughts be on Cavalinho &
I've got my eye on Lord Tolkien at this point in time mainly because of this: Show nested quote +On February 17 2014 12:28 Lord Tolkien wrote:On February 17 2014 12:00 theDragoon wrote:@Lord Tolkien: Me: obv town. If I were blue, it would only be Veteran because I can take a hit; otherwise, why would I risk my neck Day 1. You could also read me red I suppose; it's also a possibility. I just want to clarify what you mean by this post. What exactly was the risk you took and why would it be such a big risk that only a Veteran would take? I meant that if I were a blue. There's no reason for a cop or somesuch to be forward/active in Day 1, because it draws attention to themselves for a night kill from mafia. The only blue role (if I am a blue) that leads you to think I would be is a Veteran because I can soak a night shot. Assuming I'm not vanilla town or mafia, which are the other logical possibilities. I'm willing to bet the same thing generally with OnceKing, and probably Caval as well. Green, veteran, or mafia are the likely choices. The problem I have with this is the soft blue claim. He's saying that a cop or similar blue role wouldn't be active on day 1 for fear of drawing attention to themselves. Then he says if he is blue, then he'd be a Veteran. I'm not really buying the whole I'm active therefore I'm a veteran thing. I feel like any townie, green or blue should try to be active so that we can gather as much info as we can. So by trying to suggest he is a blue, he can avoid 2 things: 1) getting lynched if people believe his suggestion, this works well if he's red 2) if mafia doesn't have a roleblocker and they believe he is a veteran then he avoids getting shot, he's basically banking on mafia not having a roleblocker. He'd be one of my lynch targets on day 1 just because I want to see if he's scum pretending to be blue. If he does get lynched and ends up flipping blue then it looks bad on me. However, I don't feel too strong about this one to vote him just yet.
I'm saying that I would either be green, a veteran, or red. Those are the possibilities, and I would say the same of Cavalinho and OnceKing. This doesn't just apply to me. I am highly skeptical that any of the three of us are a doctor, cop, or somesuch, because those roles will prefer not to be in the limelight.
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Here's the 4 possibilities to why I made the comment regarding myself, Cavalinho, and OnceKing:
1) I am red, in which case, I would, as you stated, ward off a lynch if people believe me.
2) I am vanilla townie, in which case I get to ward away a mafia hit on my life by dissuading them from attacking me if they believe I'm a vet, or alternately eat a roleblock or a hit if they believe I'm a blue role, or die if they believe I'm a vanilla townie (unless they have other priorities).
3) I am not a non-vet blue role, in which case I draw mafia attention, inviting myself to being roleblocked or killed by the mafia. If they believe me, I'll be left alone, if not, they can roleblock me or kill me.
4) I am the vet; if they believe me, it helps make the mafia much more willing to push a lynch on me, and help us determine who's mafia. If they don't, I can eat a hit or a roleblock.
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On February 17 2014 15:58 OnceKing wrote:
Ok next question. If you are not sold on the lynch why are you voting for him still?? AND you say that you don't think IAmRobik is scummy, just inactive when you've clearly called out some of his posts as making him scummy, so what gives? You haven't done any real scumhunting thus far, and --
On February 17 2014 14:53 Lord Tolkien wrote:Alright, with a few new posts in the aftermath: 1) Cavalinho, why exactly do you think I'm scummy, or IAmRobik is scummy? I'd like to address the former, and the latter seems...confusing at best since his contributions have been minimal, and your random suspicions drawn right after his (joke) response to your joke response. His only posts have been: Show nested quote +On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote:
OnceKing,
That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience? Show nested quote +On February 17 2014 06:19 IAmRobik wrote:
Let's not talk about roles
There are maximum 3 maf Neither of which, while relatively unhelpful, also point towards scum.
THIS is not calling him out as scum. I was calling him out as a lurker to Cavalinho and that's it.
Tell me everyone, is this calling IAmRobik out as scum like he suggests?
Show nested quote +This is why I stated that, while I'm wasn't entirely convinced about Amiko being red, I was willing to go with a lynch on him. It would reveal information about OnceKing and Cavalinho depending on which way he flipped. Ahahahahaha. Lynching for "Information". Ya ok definitely voting you now. How's this for information. We lynch Lord Tolkien and he flips red. Sound good to all?
How about this: if you guys do and I turn up green or blue, you guys lynch OnceKing?
Because I'm now pretty sure you're scum after this post, and a town for a mafia is a pretty sure trade.
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Almost forgot:
##unvote Amiko
##vote OnceKing
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On February 17 2014 16:23 OnceKing wrote:
oh god dammit did i seriously misread that post LOL
o well, strike that point then.
Alright then everyone has two options here as to what they want to believe.
1. I'm mafia. I just went from "probably town or Godfather" by posting without fear because I'm continuing to post completely unfearfully and want to get someone lynched instead of sitting back and letting the town do stupid stuff like speculate about setup or ask pointless questions such as "r u mafia"
OR
2. I'm town. I think this guy who obsesses over power roles and night actions instead of lynching mafia is scum, but misread one of his posts. He votes for dubious reasons, dismisses any arguments brought against him while not addressing anything but the weakest points ("here, let me quote an old post, that will allay any fears!") or scumhunting. Also, his initial statement on Amiko basically rehashes what mine was and Lord Tolkien confusingly had his vote on him for the longest time despite "not being sold" or Amiko providing a "decent defense" because he wanted to lynch for information instead of lynching to kill scum.
Lord Tolkien has contributed nothing new despite having a multitude of posts other than attacking me just now.
Let's tango.
Again, I'm fine with a double lynch. If I get lynched and I turn up green or blue, you lynch OnceKing. Or have vig shoot him. I'm perfectly fine with the trade. If I'm red, you got me. I'm sure this is acceptable to everyone? Or you guys can lynch him and then lynch me afterwards, whomever you feel is more scummy. I'm fine with the trade.
Thus far you've been nitpicking irrelevant details in my post or making baseless, half-founded accusations. Your filter reads as either a particularly zealous town, or a mafia actively trying to confuse everyone. I'm fine with the trade, up to you guys.
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On February 17 2014 16:28 theDragoon wrote:@Lord Tolkien, you didn't exactly call out IAmRobik as scum but you did say that IAR's posts point towards scum. OnceKing said: Show nested quote +AND you say that you don't think IAmRobik is scummy, just inactive when you've clearly called out some of his posts as making him scummy, so what gives? I believe he is correct.
I should've made it clearer, then. My sentence structures can get meandering at times. Again, I blame lack of editing capabilities and a late night. I meant that he was a lurker, and not scummy in his read-through. Look above. Or you can cite the posts where I call him scummy; there's only one, and it was in reference to Cavalinho.
Can you tell me why you strongly believe OnceKing is mafia? He started the vote on Amiko, which gained a bit of ground then switched to you. If he was mafia, why would he switch from Amiko, who was getting a lot of suspicious looks from people, including yourself. He said he wanted to split votes to generate more discussion, which isn't really a scum move and it favors town since mafia can't easily bandwagon.
I'm not entirely coherent at this hour now, but I'll do my best (at worst I'll post a clarifying post later).
My initial impression of him was either that he was mafia actively attempting to shape and lead the discussion, or a particularly proactive town member. I wasn't entirely sure which one he was (and it is possible Calvainho was also), which is why I supported the lynch against Amiko, as I noted time and again, and was willing to move forward on Day 2 depending on which way he flipped. If he was red, then cool. If green, there's enough basis for a trade. That was my reasoning. If you feel it's flawed and a mistake, fine, whatever, but that was my reasoning.
On OnceKing, thus far, he's ultimately lead us to look at the most random, meaningless details in his post. See his initial accusation on Amiko, which was valid at the time. He's been encouraging other people to make the brunt of the cases and arguments, and hasn't ACTUALLY contributed to them to begin with. He brought up the case against me after Amiko brought up his analysis of my vote and my apparent apathy vote. After that, he cobbled together a case that consisted of meaningless details and red herrings. My joke read on Beneather for instance, or my injection of (newbie) into a post.
Thus to me, he's been bandwagoning his case after Amiko raised his valid points, and largely making a big deal about meaningless details in my filter.
Now it's also entirely possible both of us are town, and my read on him is wrong, and he is indeed just a zealous townie pouncing on meaningless details. In which case, a double-lynch would potentially result in town losing if there are 3 mafia and they get a night kill (or one turn away from it if roleblock and vet come into play).
That would be unfortunate, so I'll let you guys decide whether or not he is.
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*and by in reference to IAmRodrik, it was to note that his posts largely made him a lurker, not scummy.
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On February 17 2014 16:57 Cavalinho wrote:
My big issue with the lynches being discussed is that I don't think Amiko and Lord Tolkein can be a team. I seriously doubt Tolkein would bus him so easily and without further discussion, as pointed out by Beneather. If one is town, the other is mafia. I don't think there would be a reason for them to just randomly vote each other with so much at stake in such an active, unspammy d1.
It is entirely possible that we are both town. That is another possibility that you forgot to mention, and I am perfectly willing to accept that I was willing to lynch another townie. As I noted, it was a lynch for further info on you and OnceKing. I have stated this before, and I will continue to state this; I was not sure if my read on OnceKing was either a moderate town read or a mafia read. I'm still not entirely sure about you being mafia or town. Your analysis at times has had holes, both in post where you discussed Night 1 possibilities. If you think that's a mistake, fine. But that was my take on the situation.
(For the record, I think IAmRobik is scum because of the way he was pointlessly defending Amiko earlier, by using the exact same reasoning that makes Amiko suspicious.)
So this is assuming Amiko is scum. Very possible still, mind you, and having him actually contribute Day 1 would be very nice, but his read isn't strong for me. Reads far more like a patient lurker at this time, which could just as well mean he's a blue role. Or you are right, and he could be red.
It might be worth bringing up, actually.
And OnceKing is my strong townread as of right now. I see absolutely no reason for anyone to vote him for any reason, so Lord Tolkein voting him makes my stomach churn.
And why is he a strong town-read for you?
I've also noticed that I'm starting to get really aggravated from Amiko's attacks on me; I know that I'm town, and I'm already losing my patience with someone trying to find hidden meaning in my accusations. Instead of just trying to tunnel him, I propose we all start following a more rigid guideline for this first lynch in order to stop all the OMGUS'ing going on.
You should stop being annoyed by it, because people naturally get scummy reads on accusers, especially Day 1. If they're town, they'll think it's scummy. If they're scum, they'll call you scummy. OnceKing's accusations have made me review his filter and chronology a second time, closely, for instance, and followup on my initial gut impression.
I should note is that he started asking for reads after I made my initial list of reads, and listed him as either town or scum. His attempts to encourage discussion and push on me occurred after that (I'm reading this as his attempting to establish a town read0; he was not involved in the case against Amiko outside the initial post, which may simply just be an attempt to confuse people (or convince people that they aren't working together; either way).
Your suggestion is sound, however. I'll lay it down. To open a case, one person proposes a person to be lynched and examined. When one case is open, you can't raise another person up for lynching. If people agree, that person gets voted for lynching, if not, the case can be closed and another person can be proposed after X number of votes to be overturned (say majority-1).
This would be for future lynchings; I doubt it'll suffice for the Day 1 lynching given limited time.
I'm perfectly fine of you guys want to raise a vote or case on me right now, as long as you lynch OnceKing or shoot him when I turn up green or blue. If I end up red and he's correct, yay for town. If I'm not, I'd like some post-mortem followup on my read.
...worst comes to worst, we're both town, but I'm pretty sure he's scum at this point.
My personal impression is that it is unlikely that Cal~ is not working with Amiko with the sniping, unless it's a masterful ploy of misdirection which is working beautifully. So both can't be mafia. Either they are both town or one of them is mafia, but not both.
It is possible for Amiko and OnceKing to both be mafia, one of them mafia, or both be town (the last I'm now incredibly doubtful of given my read of OnceKing).
Reads:
My read of Cal is that his analysis is at times lacking. For instance the recent mentioning of Amiko and me both being town, which confuses things, as I accepted that he could as well be town during my reasoning. The other was the discussion of what happens Day 2 after the flip. Either you or Amiko are scum, or both are town. My current impression here is muddled.
Amiko is still very possibly scum. See above.
I may need to update my read of OnceKing further to make it cognizant, but I stated it already and everyone is clear about it now. Wasn't sure when the case was going on, but since then it's been increasingly glaring to me.
I would like to see more contribution from IAmRodrik, and bringing up a case against him might spark that. If you want to do that, go ahead (either now or Day 2, up to you guys).
This is my last post of the night. I'm pooped..
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On February 17 2014 16:59 Cavalinho wrote:
Off topic, but I just realized I've been spelling Lord Tolkien's name wrong this whole thread...Lol.
im just gonna call you cal or cav from now on, too long to type <3
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Now that I've had at least some rest, I'm just exasperated at this point.
Regarding Myself
1) Why on Earth would I make such an a fairly noticeable lynch vote on Amiko if I was mafia? If I were mafia and he were town, I could just soft-defend him given his town read on me and reap the credibility it would give me, instead of taking all this damn scrutiny. There's no benefit for me to try and make a lynch vote that early; instead I could switch reluctantly later or continue a basically null vote, and not be under scrutiny at all. No gain.
If he were scum and I were scum, similarly, why would I throw him under the bus in that manner? Unless to separate our allegiances if we flipped, but that's...still kinda a bad play, unless there's 3 mafia and you can afford it (or I am confident enough as a mafia player to run with it for the rest of the game). I doubt Amiko would agree to it if that's the case, though.
If he was mafia and I was town, then all very well and good, and if we were both town, then it would've been unfortunate, but as I said it was a vote I was willing to take to determine how Cavalinho and OnceKing fell.
I think we're all tired of this topic however, so I won't bring it up anymore.
@ Amiko:
Regarding the non-speculation of night action; the post you cited was in response to Cavalinho's and to point out a hole in his analysis (which there have been a few thus far). I previously listed what the possible courses of actions might be depending on how mafia read me, but I have no idea how they will actually read me, so I'm not going to commit to saying I will eat a roleblock, or a shot, or blue shenanigans, just the possible actions they might take.
I was giving the possible motives and reasons why I would mention the veteran being possibly among me when people were questioning me), Cavalinho, and OnceKing, and the dearth of other blues.
@ IAmRobrik:
On February 18 2014 01:06 IAmRobik wrote:
Up to this point, Valenius has done nothing but post random, uninteresting stuff and talk about game setup. Talking about game setup is an easy way for scum to look active without providing any content.
Rereading his filter, you do raise some valid points. I still don't see why commenting on roles is a bad thing for town (mafia will be doing it anyways in their QT), but his comments, when pressed for reads on myself, Amiko, and Cavalinho, were skimpy and "safe". Nothing that wasn't already pointed out before by everyone else prior, and he was fairly non-antagonistic about it. It is a good avenue to explore and a read to pursue.
I disagree with you on Day 1 lurker lynching (it gives us nothing on Day 2 if there's a green flip), but that's irrelevant now.
On February 18 2014 05:01 IAmRobik wrote:
Additionally, I'm fairly certain that Cavalinho was the first to ping me as suspicious
He was.
@ Beneather:
Can you put forward your analysis now? I do hope you understand why I was willing to vote for Amiko after last night's series of posts, but you haven't contributed your reads and analysis yet.
Current reads:
Valenius has largely been unhelpful Day 1, and has put out a nonsense vote. This either indicates he's still unsure (given our gamestate, entirely possible) and unwilling to commit, or is biding his time until later stages of the game. He reads, to me. It depends how he plays in Day 2. Beneather falls under this category too; I would put them under close scrutiny Day 2.
theDragoon is most probably town. The he was properly critical of a number of my errors, and was willing to ask for clarification, though his filter is very skimpy. Still, his posts have been useful contributions despite the dearth of them (thus far).
N1k0, I heavily disagree with his reasoning about Amiko being possible red. His first post wasn't much of an attempt to drive discussion, and he isn't playing very "godfathery" to me since. It was an introduction (unnecessary info about him self), a comment about my question about the lack of innocent child modpost, and raising a lurker lynch issue. It was abit scummy, and the best we had to go for at the time, but currently it doesn't sound like mafia talk. If you're going to vote for Cavalinho, I would like you to expand on your reasoning for him some more. At best either a weak town read or weak scum read. Additionally, I agree; Cavalinho and OnceKing can't both be red.
Unsure about IAmRobrik. He doesn't, currently, read strongly either way to me. I'd like more analysis as to why you order people the way you did.
My current strongest town read is currently Amiko, despite my earlier vote. He has, thus far, given clear answers, and given clear reasoning behind it, and they've been fairly strong thus far.
I am suspicious of Cavalinho; as I noted, his analysis has holes in it at times, some of which were "best case" red scenarios. Additional to that, his push on IAmRobrik at the time still strikes me as odd: it was at the time characteristics of a lurker, not a scum. As I stated earlier, neither of his Robrik's initial posts pointed towards him being scummy; the first post about experience is non-committal, and something I would discard largely. He's also probably red, given his attempts to deflect.
If he flips green, well fk. That makes double-lynching me and OnceKing far too risky.
I remain highly critical of OnceKing (and I will continue in my apparently lone dissent about it). My reasoning in previous posts stands, and if he is red, he's godfather (as I'm currently pretty certain OnceKing is, and that's my take on him).
I will retain my vote on him to note my read, unless something crazy, like a lynch on someone who isn't cal or me (or OnceKing, but no one is apparently going to agree to it until I turn up dead and town), is put forward and about to go through. There are no other good Day 1 lynch targets currently, and we are the clear options at this point. I repeat my request that OnceKing be lynched when I turn up town on a lynch, however.
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On February 18 2014 08:01 Cavalinho wrote:
Except I'm actively pressuring you you stupid asshole.
In case you haven't noticed, I'm actually trying very hard to focus on other things. But you ignore the shit that I've said before in regards to what OnceKing said. You can go ahead and look for it, because I'm not wasting my time explaining anything to you anymore. You are literally turning this into "you or me," and if we're both town, then everyone else is just sitting and watching while you try to reason something out of nothing.
I see absolutely no reason to let you live. You deliberately misread everything and your logic makes no sense. You're either shit town or mafia trying to save yourself.
But it's not like it actually matters what I'm saying here. I could say "smelly dick poop butt" and you would still think I'm mafia.
Two things: one, most of your posts have mostly been expressing frustration that Amiko's focusing on you. You've had "productive posts", but they're all focused on defending yourself and trying thus far to condemn Amiko.
Even when I point at both Lord Tolkein and IAmRobik
First, there was no pointing at me previously,
The only reference to me previously was:
His logic is unsound and it makes no sense whatsoever. What's actually kind of funny was that I was rethinking my stance after what you [, Lord Tolkien] posted earlier, but he keeps trying to push back on me which, in turn, makes me go after him.
After my first two posts on Amiko and a side-tracked conversation with Valernius about possible roles.
And the push onto IAmRobik at the time, with the posts we had at hand, is very questionable, which I've already raised.
This also raises the question why you aren't voting me after switching from Amiko.
On February 18 2014 08:41 Cavalinho wrote:I stand by the fact that N1k0 is our best lynch target right now. He has contributed nothing and contradicts his own reasoning for pushing a lynch. Amiko, at the very least, tries. What he's saying is stupid and wrong, but he's trying.
Justify it, why and how does he contradict himself?
As it stands, I'm probably the best lynch target next to you, and I'm fine with it if my lynch accomplishes something (it is only Day 1 after all).
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On February 18 2014 08:43 Cavalinho wrote:
Because we've had that solid conversation earlier about trying to plan around all of the blatant OMGUSing going on. This is a good sign.
You replied too fast.
I would like to see the contradictions in N1k0's posts. I didn't see it in my read throughs. I'll look again, but an explanation helps outside of "he's contradictory".
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Fine. For you cal, I'll do one last analysis of it, and be extra critical of his post.
On February 18 2014 02:54 N1k0 wrote:
Amiko
He's more likely to be town than maf, in the case hes red hes more likley to be Godfather than Roleblocker or Goon( tho i dont think theres any roleblockers since we are only 9 players) so i wouldnt waste an investigation on him since him being a Goon is the less likely scenario.
Why do i think he likely to be the Godfather in the scenario he is mafia? because of him trying to drive the conversation at the start of the day and then fading away. That being said i feel hes more likely to be town because of the fact that he hasn't been trying to deflect the threats he has received, but instead he been posting with the interest of town in his mind instead of trying to save himself.
I addressed this before: his initial post is not enough to condemn him as godfather, and he didn't "fade away". It can be construed as scummy yes, but the other conclusions aren't the best. He was indeed deflecting the threats at the time of his case opening, and attempting to explain his reasoning.
Cavalinho
At the moment i feel like hes the most likely to be a red since his fast jump on OnceKing's accusation of Amiko, i feel like he saw an opportunity to get some traction behind a lynch early and jumped on it. In the case Cavalinho ends up being red that would probably mean OnceKing is town since i dont think they would both vote so quickly on the same target if they both were mafia.
Your argument is mostly just about his bandwagoning. Is there any other reason you're voting him over, say, me? I would like an explanation.
Lord Tolkien
I dont really know what to think, hes trying hard to get someone lynched and as soon as he saw the case against Amiko losing traction he switched his stance and went against OnceKing. He's seems to be pushing for any lynch as long as its one that would have an important effect on the lynch on d2 which i feel worried about since we dont really know how many mafia there are and getting a townie (or even a blue) lynched against 3 reds would put us on a hard position. Ultimately i'm leaning to think hes town since he appears to be ok with him getting lynched as long as it results in a lynch of OnceKing on d2 who he believes to be mafia (tho he could be bluffing).
My issue with this underlined section is that I swapped my stance against OnceKing after he swapped over to me, I think that's pretty clear. I already stated I was unsure if he was just pointing fingers and just letting town tear themselves apart with no firm commitment himself as a godfather, or just a townie who's just directing town attention instead of actively participating with definitive reads and reasoning, and it was solidified after the random move onto me (and indicated as such before he pushed onto me).
You are correct: I'm looking for a lynch on Day 1 that will have the most impact for town in Day 2, given the unlikelihood of us actually lynching scum. If I'm that lynch, so be it, I'm fine with it.
Based on your analysis, the extrapolation is that we should be lynching me Day 1, so we can get a clear picture of OnceKing and lynch him, or progress onto Cal Day 2 if I ended up turning red.
OnceKing
I feel like he is the less likely to be scum because of his being the first to throw a stone at someone, which could of getting him a lot of attention on him. If Lord Tolkien ends up being green or blue it would probably raise my suspicions of him but for the moment i really feel like hes town.
In the possible scenario that im wrong and he ends up being mafia that would probably mean there where 3 reds (instead of the more likely 2 because of being 9 players) since if there where only 2 it would be less likely for one of them to throw the first accusation at someone.
I still don't buy this, as being the first one to throw the stone, and then not really committing to the case, is just as readily done by a godfather looking to misdirect town attention; first onto Amiko, and then about-face onto me, after I gave my read about him either being town or possibly godfather. If I ended up green or blue, no suspicion would've been cast onto him if I wasn't being so vocal about a double-lynch (or vig shot at night if I turned up green). He was directly pushing hard onto me until I brought that up; now he's just referencing it in passing instead of actively pushing a case (like Amiko, again), and that I think is damning. His opinions are fairly unclear, and without strong reasoning involved thus far.
But it again is just me, and people don't believe me.
I also don't see why there needs to be three mafia with him being the first one to throw an accusation. That's a needless extrapolation.
For the momment im gonna go with the
##vote Cavalinho
but i'm not too confident on it
Very indecisive, potential for yourself to pull it out later and say you weren't sure. Personally, I take it scummy; indecisive votes are my pet peeve. Decide on a vote and be decisive about it.
I'll open this up as a possible valid avenue of lynch and be willing to move my vote to him if everyone else decides upon it, but there's very little time and I'm expecting Cav or me (currently it appears to beCav) to be lynched.
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I will note, my issue with lynching N1k0 is that it doesn't give town anything if he turns up green.
If he turns up red, cool! We actually caught one Day 1! If green? wat do
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If we lynch Cav, the most likely possibilities are:
1) He was green or blue (vet most likely possibility in which case).
2) Non-godfather red. Note he was the one who suggested (probably correctly) that Cop look elsewhere instead of the most vocal posters. IF he was GF, he would welcome searches to waste cop turns.
Idle speculation post, however: I want to see if I'm right. He's scum, but not as scummy as I think OnceKing is.
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On February 18 2014 09:25 OnceKing wrote:
You do so the exact same here! You've justified it as lynching for information but as I've already said Amiko flipping green would say absolutely nothing about my alignment (though perhaps something about Cavalinho's bandwagon vote!), merely that I thought he was scum. Do you disagree with that?
However I also believed that we had reached an impasse and have discussed the topic of your motivations for voting me and my motivations for voting you to death, so I wanted to get people's reads on other things.
In my eyes, yes. I'm generally suspicious of people who start lynches so early in a mafia game. I already justified my swap onto death, and I maintain that stance (and am currently asking for clarification). I am not advocating a lynch onto N1K0, again his lynch would accomplish nothing, and I'm being extra harsh on his contradictions.
And I again emphasize: what the hell did I have to gain from making that post and vote? It's not just about what looks scummy, but what looks scummy and advances a mafia agenda. What did I have to gain from it as opposed to remaining silent or start to strongly defend Amiko, again? You pointed out that it looks scummy, and I it is without the context I provided (and I've reiterated time and again), but you haven't provided a definitive motive. This is why my alarm bells are ringing.
And you're still pointing out meandering details, nor gave out the same kind of expanded read analysis of everyone here, beyond just tunneling lynch attempts.
I'm not going to rehash everything unless a formal case is brought up against you or me. Cal/cav quoted the post I made about that, let's implement it.
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EPT
