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On January 21 2014 04:45 Cephiro wrote:
Had a 3-hour call with my future wifey (no, she doesn't know that yet.) -> Mafia playing got delayed.
So no analysis to come with this post, just my quick opinions. I will not lynch outside: Oats/Skan/Mig/Toad.
I'd prefer Mig / Toad lynched. My own analysis as for why to come. And anyone who has read the thread knows there are many good reasons to.
For those that are calling me mafia, I'd like to ask one thing. Make a proper case on me based on my own actions if you really think I'm mafia. All I see is so far calling me scum based on association. Last time I knew I'm not that good. (But hey, maybe I've gotten better, who knows?)
After re-reading my filter with my neutral mindset, do think about if it's more likely to come from a scum Cephiro or a town Cephiro. That's all.
Will be back at least 2 hours before the lynch.
ceph the primary reason (imo) that you are up for consideration is that you are generally inactive and your case on mig was completely out of left field. Also, (while I agree with your case in general) due to mig being a vet, on the chance that you are right, it seems farfetched that YOU (no offense) are the player to have "caught" mig, and thus is looks so much more like a bus than a townie having caught someone.
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skanjab, toad looked so reasonable when Rayn agreed to being lynched in Kush flipped town. You mean to tell me that he looks townie now that he has given up when faced with rayn as his adversary? I dont buy it. I think the fact that Toad is giving up after trying tp prevent rayn from selfdestructing is the icing on his scumcake. I'd like you to comment on how you think Toad arrived at self-voting when he clearly believed rayn was on tilt earlier in the game. If he thought rayn was scum, he'd have just said lynch rayn for being wrong about kush. Toad didnt do this. (I didnt either but i was being vindictive and petty about a previous game). Toad tried to assume the best of rayn and went about promoting a +town atmosphere where no one needs to die for stupid reasons (but he seemed okay with the kush lynch).
Why are you able to reconcile toad to being town in light of his behavior Re: Rayn?
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The whole "lynch rayn if kush flips town" is fucking ridiculous and Oats & Toad bringing it up is ridiculous because they did not agree with me in lynching kush -> then i figured kush is town -> then kush gets shot and those guys bring it up on D2 to make me look bad. It's so laughable, like there is a shitton of discussion on everyone and all Oats has to say is "so do you agree to get lynched now rayn since kush was town".
Fucking terrible. lol. 
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United States4714 Posts
It really is ridiculous that toad is still voting for himself and hasn't posted again.
If Toad is actually a town cop and he doesn't come back then 100% he should receive a ban for rage quitting and not playing for his wincon. There is no possible way that voting for yourself then afking less than 24h into day2 as the town cop is correct play. It is just a rage quit/sabotaging your own team.
Going to vote Toad and just assume he isn't that huge of a dick.
##vote Toad
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On January 21 2014 05:51 Mig wrote:
It really is ridiculous that toad is still voting for himself and hasn't posted again.
If Toad is actually a town cop and he doesn't come back then 100% he should receive a ban for rage quitting and not playing for his wincon. There is no possible way that voting for yourself then afking less than 24h into day2 as the town cop is correct play. It is just a rage quit/sabotaging your own team.
Going to vote Toad and just assume he isn't that huge of a dick.
##vote Toad
Toad has relinquished the right to redemption. No matter what he does he needs to die. I am not concerned with winning the game at this point. If Toad flips scum I'll care again. If he flips town, then gg I give up.
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United States4714 Posts
The more I think about it the less likely it seems to me that Toad can be mafia.
For him to be mafia he would need to put a lot of effort into this game (10 page filter with a bunch of long posts) THEN fake claim cop less than 24 h into the day (which virtually never happens) THEN martyr himself and never return. Why would mafia ever do this? The game has been going amazing for them. All Toad needed to do to survive was to post a few times. If he were mafia, he wouldn't be emotional and I don't think he would just abandon his team like this. It just seems to incredibly unlikely.
##Unvote
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so you think its more likely that Toad has decided to throw the game as town? This isnt an errant irrational decision, he thought about it or at the very least has had time to reconsider.
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United States4714 Posts
2 things hopeless
1) are people more likely to get emotional as townies or Mafia?
2) It is a lot tougher to quit on a team when your teammates can actually contact and talk to you.
I mean you are saying this is a purposeful mafia strategy. So mafia really planned for him to fake claim cop (when he had no clue if anyone would counter claim) then just give up? How does that make sense as a mafia strategy. All toad had to do to survive was not vote himself and post a few times and enough people wouldn't want to lynch a claimed cop. And if he were mafia and saw the martyr wasnt working, wouldn't he come back and try to survive?
The way toad is playing is throwing the game whether he is mafia or town and it is way more likely for a townie to throw than mafia.
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United States4714 Posts
All mafia really needs is 1 more mislynch and a missed shot by the sk(assuming there is one) and they virtually guarantee a win. Knowing this they just let Toad die for nothing? Toad doesn't try to help his team at all?
And I know that I am town and I am the only one still reconsidering 1.5 hours before lynch. What none of his teammates even try to save him?
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United States4714 Posts
##vote: sno
Oats raises some decent points, I feel like at the very least sno has been bullshitting/overstating his reads and hes been crazy wishy washy. Combined with my earlier suspicions and the fact that the Toad lynch is bad.
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On January 21 2014 07:19 Mig wrote:
The way toad is playing is throwing the game whether he is mafia or town and it is way more likely for a townie to throw than mafia.
This point just doesnt clear with me when he was so supportive on NOT letting Rayn die for no reason with respect to kush's flip.
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Oats refuses to address the subject of toad pretty much anywhere in his D2 filter.
Skan defended toad fairly hard but he ditched.
Anyway, I certainly have misgivings about the toad lynch. I'd rather lynch Oats, since the only "case" or reasoning he's bothered with all game has been pushing me. Beyond that he's literally got into big hate-fests with multiple people (rayn, thrawn) then peaced the fuck outta the thread after shitting it up to the max. No scumhunting, big flamewars. He also carefully avoided voting for Grack and instead threw away his vote on Koshi of all people.
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you are answering your own questions mig, he is doing what he is doing because he knows it's his only way out. People will get cold feet and not want to lynch him and he doesn't have to post anything to incriminate himself further, it's his best play as scum. Then if we randomly lynch some one else today and they flip town we have a fucking clusterfuck on mylo tomorrow. Not that hard to figure out why toad just peaced out when everyone thinks he is mafia.
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On January 21 2014 07:26 Mig wrote:
All mafia really needs is 1 more mislynch and a missed shot by the sk(assuming there is one) and they virtually guarantee a win. Knowing this they just let Toad die for nothing? Toad doesn't try to help his team at all?
And I know that I am town and I am the only one still reconsidering 1.5 hours before lynch. What none of his teammates even try to save him?
there are clearly people trying to save him, who knows what game you are playing. Oats, skanjab, and yourself are all opposing the lynch vehemently. rofl
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United States4714 Posts
Vayne. That would be pretty fucking ballsy. I mean it is less than 1.5 hours till lynch and he still hasn't posted. So he did it just in the hopes some townie likes me gets cold feet.
It really wasn't his only out. After claiming there was no reason for him to martyr himself. He only had 2 votes! The town would not be lynching him if he just kept posting.
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United States4714 Posts
Vayne, look at this from my perspective. I know I am town and I see nobody trying to save him 1.5 hours before lynch.
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What exactly is ballsy about the most common scum play ever? get caught ---> rage -----> stop posting so you don't screw over your team. This isn't a new concept. Recently it has happened a lot too where town has the scum on the ropes and then they start doubting themselves and then the scum were right there in our face doing nothing.
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United States4714 Posts
On January 21 2014 07:35 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2014 07:19 Mig wrote:
The way toad is playing is throwing the game whether he is mafia or town and it is way more likely for a townie to throw than mafia. This point just doesnt clear with me when he was so supportive on NOT letting Rayn die for no reason with respect to kush's flip.
I have no idea what you mean by this.
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United States4714 Posts
How was he caught lol. He had 2 votes.
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United States4714 Posts
I wouldn't exactly call. Fake claim cop with 30 hours left in the day, followed by martyr yourself, disappear and never return as the most common scum play ever. I would infact describe it as ridiculously uncommon.
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EPT
